Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of more Trump flip-flops in haphazard moves that show Trump has no strategy or exit plan from the mess he created in the Middle East.
But first, there was a Pulse dairy auction overnight and prices mostly dipped from last week's full event. Both butter and SMP dipped -0.4%, but the exception was WMP which rose +0.3%. The recently higher NZD has made those changes less in local currency, reinforcing the Fonterra payout reduction.
Elsewhere, the US released its June CPI result with a somewhat surprising dip with it falling to 3.5% after May's three year high 4.2%. Markets had expected a lesser dip to 3.8%. The biggest retreat was the -9.7% fall in petrol prices (although this monitoring only recorded a +6.8% fall).
Inflation was on the mind of Fed speakers overnight, especially Kevin Warsh, who reiterated his commitment to fighting inflation saying he had "no tolerance for persistently elevated inflation". But he had no details or plans on how he is to tackle inflation. He was presenting the Fed's semi-annual Monetary Policy Report to Congress. The Fed's target is inflation at 2% and it has been above that for 63 consecutive months now, so the credibility of achieving that target is not high.
The ADP weekly private jobs monitoring fell again, now under +20,000 and the first time it has reported a gain that low since mid-March. It has been tracking lower since early May.
The lower fuel costs shifted the needle in the NFIB sentiment survey for SMEs, resulting in a less-negative June result. But these same respondents cited inflation as their biggest threat, the highest since October 2024.
Yesterday, big US banks reported strong earnings gains, helped by their role in the Big Tech IPOs and other tech fundraising.
Singapore said its economic activity was +5.7% higher in Q2-2026 than in the same quarter in 2025. While this was a bit less than the +6.3% first quarter result, it was above the expected +5.5% outcome.
China said its June exports were up a remarkable +27% from the same month a year ago, driven by US companies stockpiling ahead of the expected inflationary effects of upcoming producer price inflation from the Middle East shocks, and by China's push to export cars, and far more than the +18% expected. It also said its imports were +36% higher than a year ago, driven by crude oil imports. That all meant that it had a near record trade surplus of +US$126 bln in June, only exceeded by the January 2025 +US$136 bln in that month.
In Australia, the Westpac-MI consumer sentiment survey became less pessimistic in July, mainly because their fuel price pressures eased - and their interest rate fears moderated as well. Job loss concerns eased too. But consumers remained gloomy about the economy overall and that meant they don't think now is a good time to buy a major appliance. And, although it recovered somewhat from very low levels, Aussies are still very uncertain where their housing market is going.
The story was quite similar for business sentiment in July as reported by the NAB survey. However, this one reported a sharper-than-expected improvement even if it is still negative. Price pressures also moderated, with input price growth slowing to its weakest pace since February and retail prices falling for the first time in seven years.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.57%, down -4 bps from this time yesterday. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +38 bps (up +3 bps). Their 1-5 curve is now at +26 bps (unchanged) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +88 bps (-4 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at 1.74%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is now at 2.69%, down -9 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.89%, unchanged from yesterday. And the NZ Government 10 year bond rate is at 4.69%, up another +4 bps from yesterday.
Wall Street has started today more positively with the S&P500 recovering +0.4% and the Nasdaq up +1.0%. Overnight, European markets were little-changed again between London's +0.3% while Paris's unchanged result. Yesterday, Tokyo ended its Tuesday trade up +0.7%. Hong Kong firmed as well, up +0.5%. But Shanghai was up a large +1.4%. Singapore ended up +0.5%. The ASX200 ended its Tuesday trade essentially unchanged again. But the NZX50 finished down another -0.5%.
The price of gold has risen to US$4059/oz, up +US$66/oz from yesterday. Silver is now just under US$59/oz, up +US$1.50 from yesterday.
Oil prices are up +US$1.50 from yesterday at just on US$78.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$84/bbl and up +US$2. Hormuz transits have essentially dried up as the hot conflict explodes again and Iran declaring the Strait 'closed'. There have been just 3 crude tankers and 7 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours and all of those tied to Iran (1 dark with transponders off) but only 9 entering for new loads, all Iran-linked (1 dark). No-one was prepared to pay Trump's tolls, so Trump backed down (in a weird rambling announcement), less than 24 hours after announcing the levies. It is unknown if any are paying Iran's tolls. Plans to build pipelines to avoid the area are getting new momentum now. So Iran is shifting its focus to blockading the Red Sea at Yemen.
The Kiwi dollar is up +50 bps from yesterday at just over 58.1 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +20 bps at 83.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +40 bps at just on 50.9 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62 which is up +50 bps from this time yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,477 and up +4.1% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been moderate at just under +/- 2.5%.
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39 Comments
T.A.C.O.
What does the President actually have to do the the US and the rest of the world to get impeached?
Amongst it all, the Iranians have learnt that they can say what they like and do what they like and if the two don’t agree there is not much anybody else can do about it. In a sardonic sense, they may well have learnt that modus operandi from President Trump, no less.
Republicans losing the mid-terms will see him impeached. But as the democrats will never have 2/3 of the senate it will be a waste of time. It will just be another media show and wont be able to stop Trump's grifting.
Trump has said the USN will escort ships through the SoH, for a price, but the maps indicate that Iran is hitting ships on the other side of the strait when they're avoiding Iranian control. The USN will already be trying to stop those missiles and drones, but it is become increasingly clear they're not that effective.
If a USN vessel is struck, bad damage and casualties resulting, the public attention back home will turn more than nasty. This Trump knows. This Trump fears. He has got himself ahold of a bloody big tiger by the tail.
Judging Trump from his lifetime actions avoiding personal responsibility rather than his mouth I'd opine that instead of fear he would welcome the opportunity to spin a deadly strike on US troops as a helpful retroactive justification for unilaterally starting his & Netanyahus bro war.
Sad to see out Government weaseling this one; summoning Iran's FA, FFS.
Should be summoning the US FA and telling him what we think of that creaking, shystering edifice.
You're wasted here PDK. You should've been a comedian. The only reason our MAGA lite government would ever call the US Ambassador would be for a butt kissing session.
Chuckle.
But it needs to be said.
And repeated.
If these numbers are accurate, average NZers are a lot better off than a helluva lot of other people
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-richest-countries-by-averag…
"Better off".
Won't stop the constant whining though.
"What a typical person holds is the global median wealth, which is closer to $8,654 per adult worldwide"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_wealth_per_adult
It's full fossil fired steam powered extinction ahead. Seems the free worlds hero, Carney, is no better than village idiot Trump when it comes to the existential threat of global heating.
"oil sands producers have been given the green light to double oil production, and that the deal unlocks billions of dollars in investments and production needed for the new West Coast projects."
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Canada-Ties-New-West-Coast-Pipeli…
Nothing replaces FF, like-for-like, grunt-wise. Not even close.
As many of us early adopters can tell you. Yes, a life can be lived on solar-derived energy (including food, which is energy) but it's not the hugely consumptive life advocated by the growth-forever brigade.
So those who need to keep consumption going, have reverted to FF. The stocks of which we are half-way through. What could possibly go wrong?
It seems that Trump didn't even read the Iranian MoU and was simply told by his sycophants and MIC operatives that it was a good thing to sign.
At ~2:40, in the link LtCol. Karen Kwiatkowski spells out her theory...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mijgutZZAIk
...paraphrased...
In a very grand way, at the Palace of Versailles Trump put his signature on this document, and apparently he never even read it, having no idea what was in it, and was very surprised when he got back to Washington to discover that the neocon faction there were all jumping on him very hard for signing what they saw as a very bad deal.
Kwiatkowski also opines that not only does Trump not read, but perhaps he cannot read or write - they just don't know?
In any case, whatever the truth is, this is a huge problem because he depends on what people tell him.
This all begins to make sense to me if you look at his career as a New York RE Tycoon. I am sure that his MO would have been that he never read the deals (especially if he couldn't) that made it to his desk, and he would simply have relied on his underlings to instruct him to sign on the dotted line.
Of course, now in his role as POTUS when many of his advisers reside in the warmongering neocon camp, this becomes a huge problem, because they actually want war.
For them a losing war is even better for the MIC and their lobby, because that means that they can spin that the arms companies were not given enough money to produce the weapons in a timely fashion in order to win.
This is how Trump's brain works, or more to the point, how it fails to work, all of which is very bad for America.
At ~ 20:00... "... Trump lives in a world in his mind, and is fed information and alternative agendas and people know how to manipulate him. You can tell trump the truth and it simply doesn't work - whereas if you flatter him and lie to him you are more likely to get exactly what you want."
One of the Kagans is married to Victoria Nuland - Ukraine is no mistake. Biden Jr wasn't there innocently, either. A Kushner on the other side of the aisle.
These are the voices around the child-king.
Yep, Russia is the victim of it's invasion and genocide it's commiting.
"he never read the deals"
Maybe. Or maybe he just has the supreme arrogance and sense of self entitlement to believe rules are for other people. Deals are obligations for the other party. There's so much analysis about what makes Trump tick, when the answer is simple, not much. Just the basic instinct of what's in it for me.
Trump's quoted somewhere about not wanting to be responsible for a global depression, be another "Herbert Hoover". I'm sure his motivation for breaking the memorandum was frustration about the number of tankers exiting Hormuz, while the SPR is starting to suck air (or water in reality). The clock is ticking and the king of the world is thrashing about with no options.
A 'global depression' was coming, Trump or not.
Surplus Energy Economics | The home of the SEEDS economic model – Tim Morgan
Like I say, he's a symptom, not a cause.
As too, when you think it through, is Binface (and remember what Zelenskyy was, prior).
Growth-forever on a finite planet was a myth - as it hit the Limits we have seen polarisation emerge; liars at one end, comedians at the other. Oh the irony...
I would look at Trump as an accelerator. Towards what, I'm not sure? I'm pretty sure it won't be a relocalised, fully democratic, ecologically based, low tech future, which is my preferred option, or survival option. The option being planned is a high tech (for the few) fascist, theocratic, surveilance feudal system. The tech bro pricks like Thiel, Altman, Musk etc aren't even making a secret of it.
"I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible". Thiel
I guess he means democracy foiling his personal freedom to socially engineer civilisation?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRDKXXzIuFQ
You sound exposed to a bit too much Russian propaganda? What Zelenski was prior to being voted in as president is kind of irrelevant I would have thought? Being an ex comedian seems a more positive humane trait than the alternative of being stuck with an ex low ranking KGB operative for 26 years?
"I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible". Thiel
He can thank Facebook as a significant accellerant towards this concept, of which he invested heavily in early on and has made a lot of money from.
"Trump lives in a world in his mind, and is fed information and alternative agendas and people know how to manipulate him. You can tell trump the truth and it simply doesn't work - whereas if you flatter him and lie to him you are more likely to get exactly what you want."
Isn't that like Putin? Two of a kind......
My neighbour considers the world's problems mainly originate with stupid old men trying to prove who's the biggest "short for Richard".
Can't argue with her really.
Putin came up through the school of hard knocks. A middling, but all the same well versed, KGB operative who got a lucky break into politics and power through association with Yeltsin. The Bolsheviks adopted and perfected the state security apparatus created by the succession of Tsars and Putin’s understanding of that has kept him in power for almost as long as Stalin. Arguably he may be something of a pea in the circumstances of Trump, but they are in entirely different pods.
Both self serving highly motivated individuals accumulating power, influence and ego over time and ultimately developing god syndrome. This is the reason there needs to be term limits and an age limit. They are both teetotal. Perhaps there's something in that?
"Isn't that like Putin? Two of a kind......"
What a ludicrous attempt at a comparison.
Putin is a disciplined former intelligence officer with a deep grasp of history, and his policies are clearly nationalistic.
Trump, on the other hand as Kwiatkowski points out, functions like an impulsive real estate broker/ crass Mafia Don, who can't even read.
One acts strictly for state dominance - the other for personal ego, his billionaire circle, and to serve his Zionist donors. They are not even in the same league.
They are not remotely comparable in terms of diplomacy skills, IQ, knowledge of history, or cognitive ability.
Those gaps are wider than the Grand Canyon, and so because of his abject deficiencies, this impulsive moron has burnt the one last offramp, that he and the global economy had left, that just might have been able avoid a massive global financial implosion.
Mike Adams ~17:00...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wRXgBt1EB4
"Every single day that this (restriction in the SoH) goes on there is a multi-year impact that will destroy the ability of some number of human beings to exist on this planet. That's where we are."
Agreed.
I bothered to read Putin's thesis paper, years ago. As I did Merkel's.
So many people allow their prior prejudices to skew their base-line thinking.
Which thesis? His resource one, or Ukrainian "You'll love me or die" Unity paper?
It's a waste of breath arguing with bigoted entrenched Russiaphobes, PDK, other than the fact that it can provide the opportunity to highlight some extremely uncomfortable facts about Western financial/military hegemonic strategy.
These people remain clueless as to who their real enemy really is, even as this rapidly growing Western idiocy threatens to drag humanity into a potentially existential global war.
The US doesn't have friends, only vassals.
Kissinger had the audacity to brag about this, and in doing so he defined their imperial strategy...
"It may be dangerous to be America’s enemy, but to be America’s friend is fatal."
He meant this.
At best you would call Putins grasp of history revisionist. The Mafia connection is stronger for Putin, being the ultimate Don, whereas the other Don is more of a bit player. Diplomacy skills? Putin? Not really. He's only wheeled out for parades and announcements. He can't be seen as too hands on/over exposed, lest he becomes the target of public ire at the state of the nation.
It's fair to say Putins control of Russia is about ego. Putins cognative abilty seems on the decline also. He's certainly extremely paranoid.
They do have a few things in common. Self-enrichment at the expense of their country, and underestimating their enemies, for example. The latter leading to both being stuck in wars they can't find a decent path out of, although Trump is at least not feeding his people into the meat grinder in quite the same way just yet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5wRXgBt1EB4
According to Dr Chris Martenson at ~20;00...
...paraphrased...
Russia has turned from a massive net export of diesel, jet fuel and gasoline, and is becoming an importer because of what Ukraine has been doing with these long range strikes with the encouragement and support and tactical targeting from the US and Western Europe.
It's no longer creating supply for the world; it is now creating demand, and he says that the energy crisis is worse than you are being told and now we have to add in additional problems in the SoH.
Mike Adams...
Just as you said Ukraine with the help of European countries providing these drones, and no doubt with the US with sattelite imaging and target selection, they are able to strike the oil refineries across Russia. For some of them the repair time will be months and for others, years.
Therefore Russia was filling the gap and providing the fuel, that was missing out of the Persian Gulf, to countries like India and China. Now that excess oil is off the market at the same time, and so it is a double shock to the worlds energy flows.
Energy is the choke-hold of the world. Think about the fact that under Trump, NATO is destroying Russia's refining capability, when a few months ago they were begging Russia for supply - they were lifting sanctions on Russia.
LtCol Daniel Davis... "Like is the left hand aware of what the right hand is doing, or is anything connected to the brain."
Mike Adams... It just shows the desperate situation of the shortage of especially the heavy oil such as what comes out of the Urals, and don't forget about the gas fields in NW Russia that are so critical to the worlds gas supply.
By destroying Russia's refineries and continuing to escalate the war in the SOH, what the West has done under Trump is they have created a double shock to the energy blood-flow of the world.
If this was done to try to harm China, it is the dumbest strategic decision ever, because China had over a billion barrels of strategic oil reserves and they are eating into those reserves, but China will be fine in terms of oil production for a long time.
Those countries that will suffer the most, will be the ones that depend on Western energy, which would be South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan - plus eventually inflation is going to hit the US, Canada, Australia, NZ, and all of western Europe, which seems to be on a suicide mission with cutting off its own energy supplies for many years, but thats a seperate story in itself.
The situation is dire for the West, but survivable for China. Its survivable by Russia by Iran (Persia) - if Trump wanted to go to war with the three historic empires of the world, he is going to lose against all three.
One of Trump's strategic failings is abandoning any leverage the US had over Ukraine. Since the US have offered absolutely no support to Ukraine since Trump took office, they are no longer sticking to the American red lines and are free to retaliate against their aggressor in novel and painful ways.
It's good to see European support continue.
Go Ukraine. I hope they thoroughly embarrass Russia.
And so both you and mfd, cheerlead a neo-Nazi regime that was inspired directly by Nazi Germany, and Stepan Bandera a proponent of fascist dictatorship ideology devoid of national minorities.
Well, good luck (not) with that shameful strategy. This lunatic and his organisation provided the Ukranian corridor for Germany's invaision of Russia during WW2, and remnants of this lunatic have remained in Ukraine to this day ready to align with the next bunch of fascists who fancy their chances of destroying the Russian civilisation.
Just like Napoleon's earlier ill-fated effort, it didn't turn out well, and neither will this latest retarded attempt that you both choose to applaud.
Previous generations would turn in their graves witnessing memories this short - especially bearing in mind the enormous sacrifices made by the West, alongside their critical ally Russia, in putting down the WW2 fascist assault on Russia and the free world.
It's a bit late for Putin to ride on the reputation of the Red Army standing up to the nazis. The history of his reign is one of aggression against his neighbors.
Its never to late to look back on history's lessons, mfd - especially in regard to this generational Western obsession with destroying the Russian civilisation, and the monumental carnage that these misguided invasions left in their wake.
Your comment is that a true died-in-the wool neocon disciple, who dines out on a strict diet of Western-centric generated imperial propaganda and sloganeering.
Meanwhile you support a program that will pan out to be immensely harmful to both Ukraine, Europe, and ultimately the entire globe.
The three remaining civilisational states that have survived the millennia - China, Russia, and Iran (Persia), along with centuries of aggression from the West, are now aligned more than ever, with their resolve made even more powerful by listening to your brand of parroted nonsense.
I would recommend you listen to what Col Douglas Macgregor has to say on this matter... at ~26:00...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PcKytIg98E4
... paraphrased...
"With Trump its optics. That's it. Thats all there is. There is nothing else. And so what are the Europeans trying to do? - they are trying to exploit the optics by creating a myth.
That's what the Europeans are doing, they are crying wolf. The wolf is coming. If this nonsense doesn't stop, they will get what they don't want.
They should not bet on the perpetual goodwill of President Putin. President Putin wants to do business with Europe, he wants to get along with Europe. But under the circumstances, if he can't, he will do what he has to to protect Russia.
So what are the Europeans trying to do? They are trying to exploit the optics, which is all that Trump has, because he has no strategy nor end point.
They are trying to exploit the optics by creating the myth that Ukraine is the phoenix rising from the the ashes, thanks to drones, and that the world will change - and so please give us more money and wage more war, to save you in the West from the inevitable invasion that is coming from Moscow - ITS ALL CRAP"
They should not bet on the perpetual goodwill of President Putin.
No shit.
The point being, tis, is that a significant portion of the domestic opposition to Putin's response to Western aggression, is that he has not been anywhere hard enough.
Meaning that when he is replaced, it will most likely be with a President that is much harder line.
There is a significant hardline nationalistic element that actively demands further escalation, because they view the war in Ukraine as an existential conflict against the West, and are critical of the Kremlin for being too soft and constrained in its military and geopolitical responses.
I wouldn't have expected him to.. he's not big on details
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