Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news it is a good job we have sports to allow us a temporary distraction from the geopolitical mess that the US has initiated and which seems to just go on and on. A shut Hormuz and a jump in oil prices is bringing Groundhog Day.
Back in the economic world, Tuesday's June CPI release will dominate this week's local data releases. Markets expect an elevated 4% rate, keeping the pressure on the OCR and the RBNZ to contain it. Events in the Middle East aren't helping. The next OCR review is not until September 2 however.
In Australia, it will be all about their June labour market release. Markets expect only modest jobs growth and no jobless rate change.
But developments between the US and Iran will remain in the global spotlight after strikes escalated, impacting energy prices and interest rate outlooks for central banks. There is not much market-moving economic data expected from the US this week. But earnings season results will be watched for indications and surprises.
In Japan, they will release trade and inflation updates (1.6%?). Taiwan will be interesting for its industrial production data. Korea for its Q1-2026 GDP outcome. And Indonesia will review its policy rate again, after the unusual interim hike, and then taking it to possibly 6%. For them it is all about supporting their weakening currency.
There is little significant data out of China this week. However, here's something we haven't covered so far. Their June trade data for China shows that its crude oil imports are now at a ten year low. In fact their June crude oil imports were -11.4% lower than a year ago in volume terms. It is a shift that will have global implications.
We can also note that China closed nearly 30,000 kindergartens and primary schools in 2025. It is the consequence of the growing demographic slump we have been noting for some time. Recent data released by the Ministry of Education revealed a severe structural divergence: while early childhood and primary education are shrinking rapidly, high schools and universities are expanding to absorb a demographic bulge from earlier birth peaks.
Three Chinese airlines have ordered 95 Airbus commercial jets. This has swelled Airbus's non-US order book over rival Boeing. Airbus (89) delivered more aircraft than Boeing (64) in June. Boeing is losing market share fast for clients outside the US, no doubt a direct consequence of reactions to nativist policies from Washington and risks of trade retaliation.
Singapore's export growth fell back sharply and unexpectedly in June. Electronics exports remained elevated, but non-electronics exports were unusually weak in the month. Their big decliners were for petrochemicals, food, and non-monetary gold. Trade with the US was especially hard hit.
Across the Pacific in Canada, the spread of their enormous wildfires are becoming an international irritant. Canada is struggling to contain them. In an unusual move, the US is refusing to assist, even though Canada sends crews and support to the US when they have wildfire emergencies. There are also major wildfires in many US states as well.
In the US housing starts in June which came in +3.6% higher than year ago levels and brushing off their unusually weak May report.
But for all the positives that some Fed district factory surveys have shown, these are not showing up in US industrial production data yet. You might have thought the increased local stockpiling surge would be visible by now. But to June, it isn't. US industrial production rose a paltry +0.1% in June to be +1.1% higher than a year ago. And that is its weakest increase in three months.
Although consumers are still very negative in their sentiment, there was a notable improvement in the latest survey results from the widely-respected and long running University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey. With the second straight month of 10% jumps, consumer sentiment climbed to its least negative reading since February of this year on the basis of easing price pressures at the petrol pump in recent weeks. All five index components improved, led by significant 20% increases in buying conditions for durables as well as year-ahead business conditions. This month’s rise in sentiment was consistent across the population, seen across groups by age, income, wealth, and political party.
Will it last? If it truly is directly related to pump prices, then this weekend's outsized jump in crude oil prices (below) and the turn up in pump prices in the past few days, suggests not. Today's pump prices are almost back to month-ago levels when the sentiment survey hit its record lows.
Looking backwards over the past month, US data has seen improvements. But these have not been enough to return the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracking to where it was in May, so a sharp downshift is still in place. And it is worth noting that 'consensus forecasts' by mainstream economists have not yet reflected that retreat.
The RBNZ also produces a GDP nowcast. After a somewhat unexpected blip up two weeks ago, the latest data has returned our Q2-2026 growth to a minimal level. The same for Q3-2026. (There is no Aussie GDP nowcast from an official institution. The Melbourne Institute version won't be updated until the end of the month.)
In Australia, the latest weekend's residential auction activity was low, possibly back to levels they had in 2018. They are finally having the housing market correction necessary to address their affordability problems.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.55%, unchanged from this time Saturday, down a net -2 bps for the week. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +37 bps (unchanged). Their 1-5 curve is now at +27 bps (-1 bp) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +84 bps (+1 bp). The China 10 year bond rate is unchanged at 1.73%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is now at 2.71%, up +1 bp, unchanged for the week. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.90%, down -2 bps from Saturday, up +4 bps for the week. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is at 4.68%, unchanged from Saturday but up +7 bps for the week.
The price of gold has risen to US$4017/oz, up +US$12 from Saturday but down -US$83 from a week ago. Silver is now just under US$56/oz, down -US$3.50 for the week.
Oil prices are +50 USc firmer from Saturday, up +US$3.50 from Friday at just on US$82.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$88/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$71.50 and US$76 respectively so a +16% rise since then. Hormuz transits have been reduced to a trickle overnight There have been just 2 crude tankers and 7 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (4 dark with transponders off) and 9 entering for new loads (6 dark) and almost this traffic is Iran-linked.
The Kiwi dollar is unchanged from Saturday at just under 58.4 USc but up +80 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are still at 83.7 AUc. Against the euro we are also holding, at just on 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.3 which is unchanged from this time Saturday, up +80 bps for the week.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,542 and up +0.8% from this time Saturday, up +1.4% from a week ago. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/-0.5%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
18 Comments
"Russians are returning to cash, as mobile internet shutdowns disrupt card payments, and more businesses seek to dodge tax under mounting financial pressure more than four years into the war with Ukraine."
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cglj255jk8ko
Goes with DC's 'back in the economic world'.
There is no economic world, without the real one.
And the real one is in multi-faceted trouble.
Cash is always initially king in down-times - but what then? The fact that the intertwined system is in trouble, means that sooner or its tokens lose respect (not just 'theirs').
If you want to govern like a dictator you won’t last long at all unless you are good at being a dictator. Putin, in longevity, has surpassed Stalin’s success in that regard. Ever since Peter the Great no one has told Russia what to do, except for Russians. While Putin remains so too does Russia remain as it is. It is not all that complicated.
So many people blame people for a physical change.
Nobody cares who is in charge; they just want stuff.
But the System is breaking down. Why? Because we chose to go to war over what's left of a finite planet. Not all at once, not in the same way, but war. Iraq x2, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, Ukraine - oh wait, the first ones were all about a righteous crusade to bring democracy to the masses; the last one was a dratted thug. Silly me.
It was all about the major hegemonies screwing others out of what they live over or with. Now those hegemonies are fighting, and in some cases using satellites.
It was ever thus, for millennia (cf. Frog & Scorpion)
The only change is our species ever developing understanding of "finite" & "resources"
https://files.libcom.org/files/authority-delinquency.pdf is worth reading.
No, it isn't.
Our species merely rapaciously consumed/degrades anything it gets its hands on.
Humans and commandeered livestock now are 97% - wild is 3% - mammalian biomass.
Commandeering is not developing and depletion is final.
Unkind distortion of the point being made PDK. Most of societies norms and cultural expectations are based on centuries old religious mantras and dogma. Nowhere in those is the words 'physical limits'. Hence even now in the 21st century there are still plenty of people who literally believe that God will return to earth and save them all. KKNZ was talking about understanding what the words meant in reality, not the development of resources.
But I suggest the 'understanding' is about much more than just the physical limits to our universe and the planet, but to who we are as individuals and a species. Across the planet we can still observe individuals who demonstrate they have learnt nothing from historical figures such as Vlad the Destroyer (or Impaler), Adolf Hitler, Iosif Stalin or his mate Lenin. The current crop prove that ego rules over survival.
Always remember everything is connected.
We are evolving in terms of what we consider valuable and finite. Once upon a time there were wars over tea, these days its of little value and abundant. Yes oil is different because we can't (cheaply) make it, but I suspect we will make alternatives instead (e.g. electric cars) once the price of oil becomes an issue.
You cannot make energy.
Period.
Usually taught in engineering, that concept.
A BBC, article on the Russian economy, KKNZ - the most Russia-phobic 'news' (sic) organisation on the entire planet - are you serious?
Does anyone out there stop and think for one minute how much more successful both the Russian and the European economies could have been, if the West hadn't spent decades trying to destroy the Russian civilisation?
All the Russian Federation has ever wanted is some basic national security guarantees, and to be able to trade with the West in a mutually respectful manner - not a lot to ask.
Instead, most of those countries, with the help of the US, set out to destroy them and now because of their own bigoted idiocy have every chance of causing a third world war and destroying much of Europe in the process.
"The government is providing up to $60 million in financial support to Golden Bay Cement to ensure its Northland operations can continue"
https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/749001/government-moves-to-keep-cem…
Sounds like a straight Grant? Why don't we (the Govt) get some equity from the company?
What happened to 'market forces'?
Commandeered, on behalf.
Suggests that Washington DC, as the centre of government, would have been more apt to name their NFL team as the Commandeers, not the Commanders
The team that commandeered one of the worst owners in the history of professional sports.
Not very reassuring is it. And they don’t even try to hide it, just ask themselves (wikipedia)
"The muddy world of private lending has Australia's corporate regulator on high alert.
Wall Street is ground zero for the alternative investment market and there are fears this massive, risky US private lending ship is sinking and investors are jumping out".
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2026-07-20/asic-raises-alarm-on-private-cre…
Given the concentration of investment in limited companies in the S&P500, and the rise of private credit in portfolios, Personally I have a feeling there is much greater exposure than most know or would be comfortable, but the wheel will keep turning as long as investors get their returns, no matter where it comes from.
The reality with private credit being that there is only so much stripping down of companies that can be done before there isn't any blood left to harvest so-to-speak.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.