Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news many countries are awaiting news of a new barrage of US tariffs, although the fear level is nowhere near as high this time as this weapon has proven relatively limp in the past, and mainly hurts US consumers.
First today, the overnight dairy auction surprised somewhat with an end to the recent weakness, rising +1.5% in USD terms although down almost -1.0% in NZD terms on the firmer NZD. Perhaps surprisingly, milk fats did quite well, other than cheddar (-6.5%). Powders were all up. Some say that northern hemisphere heatwaves have buyers nervous that this will soon weigh on production levels there, so stocks are being built in case.
In the US, the slower hiring trend that started in early May continued last week with the ADP weekly tracking reporting its lowest level since March, just after this weekly tracking series started.
US timber prices are rising and quite sharply recently. That is because of forest fires in the US Pacific Northwest states, and in British Columbia, the main exporting Canadian province to the US. Trump's new tariffs on Canada are making things worse for US housebuilders.
The early outcomes for the Q2-2026 earnings reporting season (with 10% of S&P 500 companies reporting actual results), 88% of these companies have reported a positive EPS surprise and 85% have reported a positive revenue surprise.
The US summer holiday season is starting to peak now and will stay like this until early August. The season overall ends on their Labor Day on September 7. We note this because commercial activity is different during this period and financial market activity is lighter than usual.
The same is true for Canada of course. But US border states are doing it tough because Canadians are choosing to avoid the US for their holidays as the insults and tariff actions from Trump's Washington swamp stay aggressive.
In China, new stimulus is being rolled out. Its gigantic "Six Networks" buildout is getting a major boost as part of more infrastructure spending. Those six are: water networks (canals), power grids, data centers, 6G development, undergrounding pipelines, and supply-chain efficiency upgrades. But they are also trying to get their service sector re-energised as well with targeted 'investments'.
Meanwhile, China is re-thinking its tax rebates that are driving its export competitiveness. It needs those funds for its domestic projects, and it doesn't need the international alarm their mercantalist export policies are creating.
In Europe, the ECB's Q2 lending survey has found banks have tightened credit standards moderately for firms on higher perceived risks and lower risk tolerance. Corporate loan demand rose while demand for housing loans and consumer debt decreased. Interestingly, companies seeking green loans were found to have much better financial profiles.
Germany's ZEW sentiment survey recovered notably in July after four months on weakness, and this is mirrored in their wider survey for the EU.
The price of copper is rising again, getting near the record highs it posted at the start of the Iran-US conflict. Driving some of this are unusually low copper stocks in China.
Meanwhile the FAO is reporting that hunger in the world fell again in 2025 and for a third consecutive year. Around 645 million people, or 7.8% of the world's population, experienced hunger last year, down from 8.1% in 2024 and 8.6% in 2022
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.63%, up +3 bps from this time yesterday and approaching its recent mid-May highs. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +37 bps (down -1 bp). Their 1-5 curve is now at +30 bps (+1 bp) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +92 bps (+2 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is down -1 bp at 1.73%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is now at 2.72%, unchanged. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.98%, also unchanged from yesterday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is at 4.71%, down -2 bps from yesterday.
Wall Street is +0.9% higher today on the S&P500 with the Nasdaq up +1.3%. Overnight, European markets were higher too between Frankfurt's +0.7% and Paris's +0.3%. Yesterday Tokyo ended recovering +3.3%. Hong Kong was unchanged but Shanghai was up +1.8%. Singapore ended up +0.5%. The ASX200 was essentially unchanged however. And the NZX50 ended down -0.3%.
The price of gold has risen to US$4069/oz, up +US$65 from yesterday. Silver is now just over US$58.50/oz, up +US$2 from yesterday.
Oil prices are +US$1.50 higher from yesterday at just on US$84.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just over US$92/bbl and up +US$3. Hormuz transits are still just a trickle There have been just 1 crude tanker and 3 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (4 dark with transponders off) and 11 entering for new loads (3 dark) and all this traffic is Iran-linked. The Red Sea is also now effectively blocked at Yemen.
The Kiwi dollar is -20 bps lower from yesterday at just over 58.3 USc. Against the Aussie we are also down -20 bps at 83.3 AUc. Against the euro we are down -10 bps at just on 51.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at 62.2 which is down -10 bps from this time yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$66,421 and up +1.3% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at just over +/-1.4%.
Daily exchange rates
Select chart tabs
The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
4 Comments
Pensioners and potholes.
Change in government spending, by country, by category (%-pts of GDP)
https://flo.uri.sh/visualisation/27335262/embed?auto=1
I just don't get how people think we can live longer and still retire at 65, it makes very little sense to me. I'm worried what AI could do to life expectancy too.
We need to get NZ super up to 70 ASAP. My generation will get penalised by that, but at least NZ super would still be viable. It seems to be the boomers that are already retired that insist on 65, my generation would prefer an older age but with reassurance that it's viable and will still exist.
Kiwisaver should be the ticket to an earlier retirement, with the government helping out via NZS in the later years that are more difficult to plan and save for. They should gradually move NZS age to 80 but Kiwisaver stays at 65. But this needs to be signalled now.
There's a broad spectrum of needs to be addressed Jimbo. Finding work if you lose your job, even in your 50's, can be challenging. Employers don't want to engage older people except for minimum wage menial positions. Many ignore skills and qualifications while looking for younger staff. GRI is not sufficient to live on today. It hasn't kept up with the basic costs of living, so savings must be available. Kiwisaver will be crucial.
And then there is the physical impacts of aging. At almost 69, I'm as fit and capable as someone in their 50s, but what I do notice is diminished energy reserves. I still work a 40 hour week, and go to a gym 6 days a week, but while I believe I am ahead of the pack, I really notice that my energy reserves are not what I had when I was in my 50s or younger. It's really not a simple equation. Any change to retirement legislation will likely not affect me now, but will affect younger generations and I feel that their rights to be able to make the choice that best suits them should be protected and preserved.
Finding work is also difficult for young people too. That doesn't mean there should be a universal payment to young people.
Many of the boomers i know that had physical jobs still ended up working well past 65. For those that can't there is the sickness benefit or maybe a new variant for over 65s.
Ideally we still retire at 65, but via our own savings instead of bludging off the next generations. Make Kiwisaver compulsory and keep the Kiwisaver age at 65. NZS still has a role at the later stages of life that are hard to plan for.
We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment
Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.