Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news Iran says the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed until the US accepts its conditions. So stalemate there. However, financial markets are kind of shrugging off these risks. Pakistan claims both sides are still talking however.
First up today, the overnight dairy Pulse auction brought a stabilisation in prices with the powders rising about +2% and the milk fats little-changed from last week's full dairy auction.
In the US, the ADP weekly jobs monitoring of private payrolls continues to slide, and is under +10,000 and its lowest level since the Christmas holiday season.
US existing home sales fell -1.7% in July from June, to be now just +1.7% higher than year-ago levels.
US household debt data shows it having topped out with the June quarter lower than the March quarter, which itself was lower than the December 2025 year end level. This is essentially because standard mortgage debt levels fell. But home equity loans rose, as did credit card debt, and car loans. Delinquency rates for credit card debt and car loans remained elevated but didn't get worse in this Q2-2026 data.
Sentiment in the US SME sector rose in July, but only back to levels that it had prior to the start of Trump's war on Iran. It is now little different to levels they had from the start of 2025 until March 2026.
Eyes are now turning to tomorrow's US inflation data for July. This is expected to stay high at 3.4% and only marginally lower than June's 3.5% and as such it will put pressure on the Warsh-led Fed to move to get inflation back into its policy band around 2%. There seems little likelihood of any progress without some policy action.
Across the Pacific, Singapore’s economy grew +5.9% in Q2-2026, slowing from a +6.3% expansion in Q1 which was their strongest annual growth since Q3-2024. But this latest updated exceeded advance estimates of a +5.7% expansion.
In Malaysia, industrial production slowed again in June and is now 'only' +6.5% higher than year ago levels. It was +8.3% higher on that basis in the month before. But their factory production was up almost +10% on the year-ago basis and that is an accelerating rate. It has been their mining sector that is the one that is falling away.
In Australia, the rebound in business confidence as tracked in the influential NAB survey stalled in July as Middle East uncertainty and oil price volatility continued to weigh on sentiment. Meanwhile business conditions showed signs of stabilising after weakening earlier in the year. A Westpac survey for the same period showed the same thing.
The RBA has left its cash rate target at 4.35% as widely expected. But is has raised expectations that hikes could come soon if inflation does not retreat in the way they want, but only if market conditions don't move first as they need. One thing they do expect is lower house prices and that will help the affordability crisis.
And we should probably note that aluminium prices are on the rise again. Although not back to their record high levels in early June, they have shifted sharply up in the past week, perhaps due to their central role in the US-Canada trade discussions. It is a key card Canada holds over the US. Trump's punitive 50% tariffs on Canada are due to kick in on August 20 (NZT).
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.69%, dipping -1 bp from this time yesterday but essentially holding its new level. The 30 year yield is at 5.24% and holding. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +46 bps (unchanged). Their 1-5 curve is now at +36 bps (also unchanged) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +99 bps (-2 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.70%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is now at 2.81%, down -1 bp. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 4.99%, down -1 bp. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is at 4.71%, and up +1 bp from yesterday at this time.
Wall Street has level-pegged again with the S&P500 down -0.4% and the Nasdaq down -0.7%. Overnight, European markets were mixed between London's -0.2% drop and Frankfurt's +0.2% rise. Yesterday Tokyo was on holiday and didn't trade. Hong Kong was down -1.1% and Shanghai was down -0.8%. Singapore gained +1.0%. The ASX200 ended up +0.2%. But the NZX50 dipped -0.2% in its Tuesday trade.
The price of gold is holding at US$4366/oz, up merely +US$2 from yesterday. Silver has dipped -50 USc at just over US$64.50/oz.
Oil prices are up +US$1.50 from yesterday at just under US$83.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just under US$89/bbl. Hormuz transits are still very low. There have been two crude tankers and only 1 cargo ships exiting over the past 24 hours (1 dark with transponders off) and seven entering for new loads (3 dark), again all Iran-linked. The Red Sea activity is where the focus is shifting and still low with less than 20 either way at the Yemen chokepoint.
The Kiwi dollar is essentially unchanged from yesterday at just over 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 83.3 AUc. Against the euro we have held at 51 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 62.5 which is unchanged from this time yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$63,563 and down a -0.5% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been low at just on +/-0.8%.
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