US retail sales take an unexpected dip; US sentiment also dips; China bank lending in record fall; Taiwan & Malaysia expand fast; India bank lending leaps; UST 10yr at 4.69%; gold stable; oil prices firmer; NZ$1 = 58.9 USc; TWI-5 = 62.5

"we have also receive the discussed letter"

I imagine our government would swear fealty to the ignorant orange toddler without too many qualms. It's the christian thing to swear allegiance to a sexual predator in the process of creating a global fascist empire. 

Difference? More low carbon energy to transition our economy, without industrialising more of our landscape with panels, windmills and eventually nuclear power plants? 

If we banned: we lose an opportunity to export electricity which our generators can easily and cheaply create. Bunch of suppliers lose out, power plants that don't get built, generators will downsize their development teams. Probably end up with higher power costs in the long run due to fixed transmission costs being shared among fewer users, and a smaller electricity market overall with less economies of scale. 

The usual balance of payments stuff, dollar goes down, long term we are less able to import things.

The geopolitical angle. Smaller economy, smaller industrial base, less relevant country.

PART (ii) of (iii)...

THE DOGS BARK - as the multipolar juggernaut moves on.... relentlessly



#9 Dethroning the Petrodollar: The Geopolitics of Energy

The final piece of this multipolar puzzle is the transformation of global commodity pricing. For half a century, the global dominance of the US dollar was guaranteed by the petrodollar system, which required global oil and gas to be priced and settled exclusively in American currency. The integration of mBridge and the new transport corridors has permanently broken this monopoly.

With Saudi Arabia and the UAE actively operating on the mBridge ledger, the world's most critical energy spigots are plugged directly into the alternative framework. Energy trades can now be automated using smart contracts built into the blockchain ledger. For instance, a shipment of crude oil or liquefied natural gas (LNG) leaving the Gulf can automatically trigger a secure, irreversible payment in e-CNY the exact moment the vessel enters a partner port.

Because these transactions occur entirely on sovereign digital ledgers, they are completely invisible to Western regulators. The power to track, police, or freeze multi-billion-dollar energy deals has been completely removed from the Western financial toolkit.



#10 A Sustainable Multipolar Reality



The convergence of the INSTC, the Belt and Road Initiative, Project mBridge, and BRICS Pay represents a fundamental shift in the global balance of power. This is not a temporary workaround to evade sanctions; it is a permanent, parallel economic architecture designed for long-term survival and growth.

This system achieves three core pillars of sustainability and routes and domestic sea loops cannot be blocked by foreign naval carrier groups. This ensures the steady flow of grain, fertilizer, essential tech minerals, and energy across Eurasia and Africa.



Financial Immunity: Transactions bypass Western clearinghouses entirely, neutralizing asset freezes and economic warfare.

Resource-Backed Stability: By shifting away from purely fiat-based speculation and tying transactions directly to the immediate, automated exchange of hard commodities - oil, gas, minerals, and grain - the new system creates a highly stable foundation for global commerce.

The global South and the Eurasian heartland are no longer dependent on a single, Western-centric financial engine. Through the seamless marriage of physical corridors and digital ledgers, a true multipolar world has not only emerged - it has built the infrastructure to stay.

#11 The Silk Backbone: How Eurasian Logistics and Sovereign Digital Ledgers Are Redrawing Global Trade

The global economic architecture is undergoing a structural realignment. Decades of Western financial and military hegemony, anchored by the US dollar and the SWIFT messaging network, are being met by a resilient, alternative framework.



Driven by a strategic alliance between Russia, China, and Iran, this shift combines land-based transport corridors with advanced digital financial systems. The result is an autonomous, sanctions-proof global trade loop that integrates East Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East, and Africa into a new multipolar reality.



#12 The Physical Arteries: Connecting Eurasia and Beyond

The physical foundation of this new paradigm relies on secure, land-based logistics paths that bypass traditional maritime chokepoints controlled by Western naval power. By moving trade from vulnerable oceans to inland rail networks, this alliance has created an infrastructure immune to foreign blockades.



#13 The International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC)

The INSTC is a 7,200km multi-modal freight network that slashes transit times between Russia and India by 40% and lowers shipping costs by 30%. It bypasses Western Europe entirely through three strategic routes:



The Caspian (Central) Route: Connects Russian inland ports like Astrakhan directly across the Caspian Sea to northern Iranian hubs like Anzali.



The Western Route: A direct rail line running through Baku, Azerbaijan, into Iran. The completion of the critical Rasht-Astara rail segment enables uninterrupted train travel from St. Petersburg straight to the Persian Gulf.



The Eastern Route: Links Russia to Iran via the expansive rail networks of Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan.

At the southern terminus, India’s heavy investments in Iran’s deep-water Chabahar Port allow Indian freight from Mumbai to connect directly with the Eurasian mainland, bypassing regional geopolitical obstacles.

#14 Plugging in China's Northern Rail Lines

This Eurasian backbone links directly with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). High-capacity trains originating in industrial hubs like Xi'an and Chongqing enter Central Asia through the Khorgos Gateway on the Kazakh border.



From there, Chinese rail networks interface directly with the INSTC's Eastern route, creating a continuous manufacturing and supply chain artery stretching from the Pacific Ocean to the Caspian Sea.

#15 The African Maritime Extension and Resource Pipelines

The trade loop extends south into Africa via the Arabian Sea. Deep-water ports along the East African coast - including Djibouti, Mombasa (Kenya), and Dar es Salaam (Tanzania) - act as oceanic gateways. This extension creates a direct resource pipeline that moves critical minerals out of Africa's interior directly into the Eurasian manufacturing engine.



Through these ports, essential commodities bypass Western-dominated shipping channels entirely:



Battery and Tech Minerals: High-grade cobalt and copper from the Democratic Republic of Congo, along with lithium from Zimbabwe, are railed to the coast and shipped directly to Iranian and Indian hubs.



Industrial Metals: Large shipments of Tanzanian gold, Zambian copper, and South African manganese feed directly into the heavy industries of Russia and China.



Agricultural and Energy Security: Crucial food supplies and agricultural products flow North, while Russian fertilizer and fuel move South. This direct swap keeps African economies stable without relying on Western brokers.



#16 The Financial Spine: Digital Ledgers and Local Currencies



Physical security means little without financial immunity. The weaponisation of the US dollar and Western banking sanctions served as a powerful catalyst, driving these nations to build a completely independent financial architecture that operates entirely outside of Western control.

FINAL - PART (iii) of (iii)



Are we all going to ignore the single largest investment initiative in the history of our species?



Yes we can, but ignoring this reality is not going to make it go away. I would suggest that this massive development should be a huge part of the conversation in the context of the NZ economy going forward.



The fact that it is being treated with such a huge degree of apathy, does not auger well for our future as a country within this emerging multipolar reality.



The estimated total investment by the Rest of the World (RoW) - primarily emerging markets, middle powers, and the expanded BRICS+ bloc, to build out a new multipolar physical, technical, and financial reality, is projected to reach between $40-45 trillion over the next 25 years.



We can choose to xenophobically insert our heads in the sand, in the hope that it all goes away, but that 'strategy' will only hasten our current debt-doom-loop trajectory, and make our economic future  even more grim than it already is.



..................................................................................



PART (iii) of (iii)



#17 Project mBridge: Bypassing SWIFT

At the center of this financial revolution is Project mBridge, a multi-central bank digital currency (mCBDC) ledger. Developed independently of Western legacy banking systems, mBridge allows commercial and central banks to settle wholesale trade directly with one another. Following the departure of Western-backed institutions from its governance, mBridge operates as an autonomous, sovereign-run platform.

The network's core participants include:



People's Bank of China (PBOC): The system's primary technical architect



Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA): The gateway for offshore clearing



Saudi Central Bank (SAMA) & Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE): Integrating the world's largest oil and gas flows directly into the ledger



Bank of Thailand: Connecting Southeast Asian commercial trade.

By utilizing direct, peer-to-peer blockchain settlements, mBridge cuts transaction times from days to seconds and eliminates the clearing fees imposed by Western intermediary banks.

#18 The Digital Yuan (e-CNY) as System Fuel

The Chinese digital yuan (e-CNY) has evolved into the primary currency driving these corridors. The PBOC has confirmed that over 95% of transaction volume on the mBridge network is settled in e-CNY.

A critical structural shift reclassified the e-CNY from simple digital cash to interest-bearing digital deposits, making it highly attractive for large-scale corporate trade. With total cumulative volume surpassing 16.7 trillion yuan (~$2.3 trillion USD), the e-CNY provides the deep liquidity needed to run global trade pipelines without touching a single US dollar.

#19 Digital Ruble, Digital Rupee, and BRICS Pay

To reinforce this immunity, Russia and India are integrating their own digital currencies into the loop. The Digital Ruble serves as an absolute shield against SWIFT bans, allowing Russian entities to invoice and buy industrial goods seamlessly. Simultaneously, India uses its e-Rupee alongside Special Rupee Vostro Accounts (SRVAs) to clear energy imports instantly.

Tying these domestic frameworks together is BRICS Pay. Rather than enforcing a single currency, BRICS Pay acts as an overarching digital mesh that links the individual fast-payment systems of all BRICS+ member states.



This allows commercial entities and everyday traders across the Global South to conduct business instantly using their own national currencies. This digital ledger network is highly valuable for African nations facing US dollar shortages, allowing them to trade mineral wealth directly for Eurasian goods using their local currencies.



#19 Dethroning the Petrodollar: The Geopolitics of Energy

The final piece of this multipolar puzzle is the transformation of global commodity pricing. For half a century, the global dominance of the US dollar was guaranteed by the petrodollar system, which required global oil and gas to be priced and settled exclusively in American currency. The integration of mBridge and the new transport corridors has permanently broken this monopoly.



With Saudi Arabia and the UAE actively operating on the mBriidge ledger, the world's most critical energy spigots are plugged directly into the alternative framework. 



Energy trades can now be automated using smart contracts built into the blockchain ledger. For instance, a shipment of crude oil or liquified natural gas leaving the Gulf can automatically trigger a secure , irreversible payment in e-CNY the exact moment the vessel enters a partner port.

Because these transactions occur entirely on sovereign digital ledgers, they are completely invisible to Western regulators. The power to track, police, or freeze multi-billion-dollar energy deals has been completely removed from the Western financial toolkit.



#20 The European Dilemma: Reaction and Fragmentation



As this parallel trade and financial ecosystem solidifies, European trade partners find themselves caught in a deep economic and strategic dilemma. The creation of these bypassing routes has exposed a growing rift between Europe's official political alignments and its real-world economic dependencies.



#21 The Cost of De-Coupling

Official policy from Brussels has focused heavily on de-risking from China and cutting economic ties with Russia and Iran. However, blocking these natural overland corridors has stripped European industries of their competitive edge:



The Energy Crisis: Forcing Europe away from cheap pipelines has driven its factories to rely on expensive American shipped gas, leading to widespread factory closures in industrial core zones like Germany.



The Shipping Squeeze: With critical maritime passages facing ongoing security bottlenecks, Europe is being squeezed into an economic corner. Meanwhile, its Eurasian competitors utilize the lightning-fast, secure land corridors of the INSTC and BRI.

#22 Underground Interconnectivity

Despite strict sanctions packages, European commerce cannot completely cut itself off from the Eurasian heartland. A massive shadow trade has emerged, utilizing Central Asian intermediaries:



The Re-Routing Loop: European manufactured goods, automotive parts, and machinery are officially exported to nations like Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and the UAE. Once there, these goods are quietly re-routed via the INSTC straight into Russian and Iranian markets.



Disguised Resources: Similarly, essential commodities and refined petroleum products find their way back into Europe. They are simply laundered through secondary nations and paid for using alternative banking channels that bypass Western oversight.

By attempting to seal itself off from the Eurasian land bridge, Europe has not halted the development of the multipolar infrastructure. Instead, it has isolated its own markets, accelerated its own industrial decline, and forced its corporate sectors to rely on expensive, complicated shadow networks just to access essential raw materials.

#23 A Sustainable Multipolar Reality

The convergence of the INSTC, the Belt and Road Initiative, Project mBridge, and BRICS Pay represents a fundamental shift in the global balance of power. This is not a temporary workaround to evade sanctions; it is a permanent, parallel economic architecture designed for long-term survival and growth.



#24 WRAP-UP... this system achieves three core pillars of sustainability



Physical Sovereignty: Land Routes and domestic sea loops cannot be blocked by foreign naval carrier groups. Carrier groups as an effective means of projecting military might are quickly losing their credibility and effectiveness anyway. The obvious vulnerability of these giant floating anachronisms are becoming more obvious by the month.



This ensures the steady flow of grain and fertilizer, essential tech minerals, and energy across these continents.



*(Building a single Nimitz-class super-carrier like the USS Abraham Lincoln today would cost between $6.8 billion and $11 billion. When you assemble a full, combat-ready Carrier Strike Group (CSG), and the total procurement cost skyrockets to between $30 billion and $35 billion)



Resource-Backed Stability: By shifting away from purely fiat-based speculation and tying transactions directly to the immediate, automated exchange of hard commodities - oil, gas, minerals, and grain - the new system creates a highly stable foundation for global commerce.

The Global South and the Eurasian heartland are no longer dependent on a single, Western-centric financial engine. Through the seamless marriage of physical corridors and digital ledgers, a true multipolar world has rapidly arrived, and it has built the infrastructure to stay.