Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news global oil prices have risen again with no end to Trump's Hormuz adventure. In something of a gigantic own-goal, the US economy is losing momentum rather quickly now.
But first, the overnight full dairy auction came in better than the futures market had signaled, up +2.3% from the prior full event. This was largely driven by the milk powder gains with WMP up +3.0% and SMP up +7.6%. However most of the milk fats fell. The overall gains in NZD were slightly better, up +2.6%. But despite this recent turn higher, prices are still almost -9% lower than year-ago levels, even if they are up almost +10% from the start of 2026.
In the US, the latest weekly jobs update from ADP has stayed low with less than a +10,000 gain over the past four week.
In contrast to the positive July factory report in the New York state region we noted yesterday, their services survey in the same region wasn't very good. The business climate index remained deeply negative, with almost half of respondents reporting unfavourable business conditions.
US industrial production data for July was modestly positive from June and that has resulted in a +1.1% gain from a year ago, although lower than the June +1.3% expansion.
US pending home sales were lower in July, both from June, and from a year ago. There is no spark in evidence in this sector, and perhaps not surprisingly when home loan interest rates are high at 6.8% and likely to rise from here. Every region is posting both month-on-month and year-on-year declines now.
US housing starts fell back sharply in July, down -13.5% from year-ago levels. In fact, the last time they had a July this low was in 2019.
And in Canada, they also reported a sharp drop in new housing starts in July, their lowest for that month also since 2019. But July housing market sales actually rose and delivered the highest levels they have had in 2026 (even if this isn't a particularly high bar).
Meanwhile, negotiations between Canada and the US over Trumps 50% tariff threat seem to be going nowhere, and they are due to come into effect tomorrow. Interestingly, included in the stoush is Canada's aluminium exports and if they are tariffed, the hurt to US businesses will be significant.
In China, they have a slowing momentum too. Households are clearly worried because they hare paying down debt faster and prioritising cash reserves in the face of a glum outlook.
In Australia, their consumer sentiment has improved from low levels but it is still net-negative and still below last year's level at this time. The improvement was driven by mortgages holders who were relieved that the RBA didn't increase rates at its last decision. The survey also shows house price expectations declined as the housing market weakened. But renters are less likely to expect price falls and are more downbeat about home purchases.
The UST 10yr yield is now just on 4.71%, down -2 bps from this time yesterday. The 30 year yield is at 5.28% and down -3 bps, and off its highest in more than 20 years. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +53 bps (unchanged). Their 1-5 curve is now at +38 bps (+1 bp) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +102 bps (+2 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is down -2 bps to 1.67%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is now at 2.95%, unchanged, up +3 bps. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 5.05%, up +2 bps. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is at 4.77%, up +3 bps.
Wall Street has faded again today with the S&P500 down -0.6% and the Nasdaq down -1.3%. Overnight, European markets were mixed between London's +0.1% and Paris's -0.8% fall. And Tokyo ended its Tuesday session down +2.5%. Hong Kong was up +0.1%. Shanghai was up +0.2%. Singapore ended down -1.2%. The ASX200 ended its Tuesday session little-changed. But the NZX50 had a good positive session, ending up +1.1%.
The price of gold is falling back, now at US$4353/oz, down -US$30 from yesterday at this time. Silver has fallen -US$1 to just under US$64.
Oil prices are up another +US$1 from yesterday at just over US$85/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is now just on US$91/bbl and up +50 USc. Hormuz transits have stayed very low. There has been only one crude tanker and 4 cargo ship exiting over the past 24 hours (2 dark with transponders off) and eight entering for new loads (3 dark), again all Iran-linked. There have been deadly attacks on a few of these ships crossing. The Red Sea activity is still only about 20 exits at the Yemen chokepoint, little-change.
The Kiwi dollar is down -25 bps from yesterday at just under 58.8 USc. Against the Aussie we have dropped -20 bps to 82.9 AUc. Against the euro we are down -25 bps at 50.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 62.3, down -30 bps from this time yesterday.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$64,667 and up +0.7% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has also been low at just on +/-0.7%.
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2 Comments
Election issues: power company profits. I understand that the biggest issue for voters is the cost of living. It is fascinating that the former two big parties are in lockstep about reeling in the excesses of these partial SOEs. My parents paid to build the hydro schemes. I have paid off the debt in my lifetime. This flawed neolib model is past reform. No dry year capacity, no base load capacity building. Let’s not rehire the governance team that led us to here.
The UN's 'Roadmap for Eradicating Poverty' cannot survive reality - resilience
'Economic activity must be bolted to biophysical reality. The architects of the re-jigged economy implicitly recognize that the present human enterprise is a growing fully-contained, dependent subsystem of the non-growing ecosphere'
Ah, but 'funding'.
Surely the biggest lie we told ourselves.
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