Eyes on Warsh; US trade deficit rises; US inventories rise; Canada books a surplus; China profits rise again; Australian household spending jumps fueling rate hike bets; UST 10yr at 4.67%; gold unchanged and oil up; NZ$1 = 59.5 USc; TWI-5 = 62.9

Gemini answer pasted below-

To understand how individual behavioral changes compare to major geopolitical shocks, we can look at the raw numbers of global oil consumption. We track this data from 1979 (the year of the Iranian Revolution and the onset of major US sanctions/actions against Iran) up to the current crisis. [1, 2]

The metrics below highlight the data:

                  GLOBAL OIL CONSUMPTION OVER TIME
 
 1979: █ 63.1 million barrels per day (mb/d)
 2000: ████ 76.7 mb/d
 2019: █████████ 100.8 mb/d
 2024: ██████████ 102.8 mb/d
 2025: ███████████ 104.2 mb/d (All-time high)
 2026: ██████████ 102.6 mb/d (Projected drop due to war)


1. Geopolitical & Policy Shocks vs. Individual Action

Geopolitical events alter oil flows instantaneously by millions of barrels, whereas individual actions alter demand gradually over years.

•  
• The 1979 Iran Shock: Following the 1979 revolution and subsequent US-led economic embargoes, global supply abruptly lost roughly 5.6 million barrels per day. This triggered a global recession that forced structural changes (e.g., standardising smaller cars, building fuel economy mandates), causing global consumption to temporarily contract to about 53 mb/d by 1983. [1]
• The Present Crisis (2026): In early 2026, direct military conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran resulted in a severe disruption through the Strait of Hormuz. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), this crisis knocked out massive volumes of Gulf output. Because oil prices soared over $100 a barrel, global oil demand is projected to drop by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026—shrinking from 104.2 mb/d down to 102.6 mb/d. [3, 4, 5]
•  

2. Quantifying the Collective "Individual Action"

While a war can drop global usage by 1.6 mb/d in a single year, collective individual actions operate differently: [3]

•  
• The EV & Hybrid Shift: As of recent tracking, the mass adoption of electric vehicles globally (an aggregate of millions of individual buyers choosing alternatives) displaces roughly 1.8 to 2.5 million barrels of oil per day. Without individual transitions to clean transport, global oil demand would be sitting near 106–107 mb/d.
• The Corporate/Remote Work Shift: Individual actions like working from home and avoiding daily commutes shave off an estimated 300,000 to 500,000 barrels per day globally.
• The "Jevons Paradox" Offset: Even though individual efficiency choices (buying a fuel-efficient car) save fuel per kilometre, global consumption still net-increased by over 40 million barrels per day between 1979 and 2025. This is because populations grew, and millions of individuals in developing economies entered the middle class and bought cars for the first time. [6]
•  

Summary of the Math

Individual consumer choices have successfully suppressed global oil demand by roughly 2.5 to 3 million barrels per day compared to what it would have been without green technology and conservation. However, systemic geopolitical events—like the US actions and subsequent conflicts with Iran—can instantly shift or erase 1.5 to 5.5 million barrels per day via economic price shocks and supply blockades. [1, 3]

[1] https://www.youtube.com

[2] https://cepr.org

[3] https://www.iea.org

[4] https://www.mfat.govt.nz

[5] https://www.bbc.com

[6] https://www.scribd.com

I will give the first part of your question a whirl, LouB. I was already working on an article on this subject anyway... so this pretty much just a C&P... my hypothesis... in essence, the unbridgeable chasm between Washington’s self-constructed narrative and global reality has transformed from a diplomatic friction point into an embarrassing historical farce.

While the White House operates within an insular echo chamber of parroted group-think lies, the Rest of the World (RoW) is managing tangible, real-time realities - this manifests in the utterly conflicting narratives in regard to Hormuz transit traffic and destination.

This wider divergence in narratives is accelerating as the structural foundations of American hegemony crumble alongside an overextended military and a decaying, debt-ridden domestic economy.

It seems that the global majority has come to a collective, pragmatic realisation - Rome II is burning, and the wisest geopolitical strategy is simply to step back and let it burn.

1. The White House Echo Chamber: Geopolitical Fantasy vs. Material Reality

Inside the Washington beltway, policy is no longer driven by objective intelligence, but by a self-reinforcing loop of ideological delusion.

The political class blindly parrots the narrative that unilateral sanctions, paper blockades, and weaponised dollar networks can still dictate global behaviour.

This group-think creates a dangerous reality gap.

While Washington issues declarations of absolute compliance from a position of economic isolation, the RoW deals in the hard currencies of food, energy, manufacturing capacity, and critical minerals.

You cannot feed a population, fuel an industrial grid, or maintain a society with fiat dictates, public relations scripts, and strategic ambiguity.

2. The Paper Tiger: Washington’s Inability to Enforce a Blockade

The most glaring manifestation of this decline is the complete failure of the US military to enforce its so-called naval blockades of the SOH (Strait of Hormuz), or offer credible "safe passage" to vessels defying Iranian dictates.

The projection of American maritime power requires immense material wealth and logistical competence, both of which are visibly deteriorating.

The SOH Funnel Vulnerability: The SOH is not an open ocean - it is a narrow, 39-kilometer-wide bottleneck, tightly bound by Iranian coastal geography.

To enforce a physical blockade, US naval assets must operate directly within range of Iran’s sophisticated, asymmetric anti-ship missile batteries, fast-attack swarms, and low-cost loitering munitions.

The Strategic Retreat: Recognising this extreme vulnerability, the US Navy and its shrinking air assets cannot maintain a dense, permanent presence inside the immediate entrance of the strait.

Instead, capital ships are forced to operate hundreds of miles away in the wider Indian Ocean, leaving a vast expanse of water where departing shadow tankers can easily fan out and disappear.

The Illusion of Safe Passage: Washington’s promises of military escorts or secure corridors for Western-compliant vessels have proven entirely hollow.

The US simply lacks the hull count, deployed assets, and industrial capacity to protect commercial shipping from localised interdictions.

Shipowners have realised that relying on a depleted, overextended US Navy is a liability, not a guarantee of security.

3. Structural Decay: An Empire Falling Apart

The military failure is a direct symptom of a deeper, systemic domestic collapse. The physical machinery of the empire is literally falling down around its ears.

Industrial Failure: US shipyards are crippled by decades of offshoring, severe skilled-labour shortages, and massive maintenance backlogs. Ships cannot be repaired efficiently, and precision munitions stockpiles cannot be replenished at a wartime pace.

Fiscal Insolvency: The US sovereign bond market is buckling under the weight of an unpayable national debt. The economy has been hollowed out, producing complex financial instruments and debt liabilities rather than physical goods and actual wealth.

4. Rome II is Burning whilst he RoW Juggernaut Moves On

The fundamental shift in the global order is that the RoW has stopped trying to put out the fires of Washington's making.

Nations like China, Russia, and Iran have realised that purchasing US Treasury debt is merely financing their own victimhood. By progressively dumping these liabilities, they are cutting off the oxygen to the imperial printing press.

Rather than engaging with or attempting to reform a broken Western paradigm, the multipolar bloc is quietly letting the old structures burn out.

They are building a completely parallel, sanction-proof trade architecture rooted in resource sovereignty, physical infrastructure, independent maritime insurance, and bilateral local-currency settlements.

The contradictory commentary surrounding maritime transits is the natural byproduct of this fragmentation. Washington continues to broadcast a script of a world it no longer controls, while the Rest of the World quietly anchors its future in the pragmatic, physical realities of a novel multipolar paradigm shift.

Judging by many comments and thread titles I've seen elsewhere the parties in parliament all agree the biggest threat in NZ is Opportunity. They're way more scared of them than anything the rest of the world can push at us.

Hippy is just so reactionary.  Last election Labour campaigned on funding the transport system.  This election National cancelled fuel tax increase, Labour oh were cancelling it too.  Neither of them are explaining how the road network is going to be paid for.  Especially national with the legacy of Simeons extravagant road building bonanza.

The traditional parties are so concerned with protecting their tribes that they are failing their core mission.  Leadership.  

Very well put, and succinct. One for the masses, and the polls seem to be somewhat reflecting this.

"The fact they’re back has been thanks to some careful and judicious management of fisheries,”

...& warming ocean attracting bluefin food species. Thanks climate change.

Some one asked me the other day "What do you think the oceans would look like if you removed all human activity for 50 years", I replied it would be beyond your wildest imagination.