US data mixed as bond market flares as risks mount; Xi and Trump meet inconclusively; Canada data positive; China raises petrol prices; Aussie labour force grows; UST 10yr at 5.18%; gold falls but oil rises again; NZ$1 = 56.6 USc; TWI-5 = 60.3

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news US treasury yields are trading at multi-year highs, as stronger-than-expected economic data and elevated oil prices fueled bets on another Fed rate hike. The 10-year yield topped 5.18%, its highest level since 2007, while 30-year reached a 2004 peak of 5.47%. The gold price is slipping. Many other asset prices face price risks too, especially commercial property and that also comes with leverage risks being exposed.

So far the US-China meetings in Washington DC between Xi and Trump have been all show and no substance.

In the US, there were 163,800 initial jobless claims last week, an increase from last week's unusual low but about the increase that can be accounted for by seasonal factors. That puts the continuing claims at 1.55 mln, a new 60 year low. The qualification restrictions are certainly biting hard now. Early estimates of the September US non-farm payrolls change doesn't support the idea that jobs growth is strong, and certainly not among workers who are being stripped from unemployment protections.

However there was positive news of expanding recent sales of new-built homes. Even though housing starts are falling, sales of these homes rose in August, up +6.4% from July, but still -2.0% below year-ago levels.

The Kansas City Fed factory survey stayed positive in September, holding the expansion level it has had since June. But price pressures intensified, the survey shows.

There was a still well-supported US Treasury seven year bond auction overnight (down only -3.2%) that delivered a median yield of 5.02% (high 5.09%) and that was up sharply from the median of 4.46% at the prior equivalent event a month ago. That is near its highest in 20 years.

Canada reported some positive economic data overnight. It's August retail sales were up +1.3% (real), and more than making up for the -0.7% monthly fall in July. They are up +1.9% (real) from a year ago. And its manufacturing sales were up +1.1% in August. This extends a string of good monthly gains in 2026, with only one month in the past seven showing a dip.

In China, they raised their petrol prices today to ¥8.90/L, up from ¥8.60/L (NZ$2.34/L from NZ$2.26/L).

In Australia, June 2026 data released yesterday by the ABS shows household wealth there has reached AU$19.4 tln, driven by superannuation, but now held back by recently falling housing values. That is average per capita wealth of AU$694,500. There are a vast number of Aussie 'super' millionaires now.

Meanwhile, the August update of their labour force data shows +39,500 more jobs in the month with 14.827 mln people employed. But their jobless rate rose to 4.6% with 722,900 adults unemployed and a rise of +28,200 in a month. Hours worked and participation both rose and underemployment fell (slightly).

Global container freight rates were little-changed overall over the past week. There were some falls in the China-EU trade, but a minor rise in the China-USWC trade. Overall prices are now +154% higher than year-ago levels and have topped out for the moment. Bulk cargo rates are +3% higher for the week but also seem topped out. From a year ago, these rates are +55% higher.

The UST 10yr yield is now just on 5.18%, up another +5 bps from yesterday. The 30 year yield is at 5.47%, up +7 bps. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +26 bps (up +6 bps). Their 1-5 curve is now at +55 bps (unchanged) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +126 bps (up +2 bps). The China 10 year bond rate is little-changed at 1.67%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is now at 3.08%, up +10 bps and a huge move for them. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 5.36%, up +4 bps and a new 16 year high. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.10%, up +15 bps and also a notable shift higher.

Wall Street is slightly lower today with the S&P500 down -0.1%, and the Nasdaq is also down -0.1%. Overnight European markets were lower between London's -0.2% and Frankfurt's -0.6%. Tokyo was up +0.8%. Hong Kong ended its Thursday down -0.3% while Shanghai was fell -1.2%. Singapore fell -0.5%. The ASX200 ended its Thursday session down -0.7%. But the NZX50 ended little-changed.

The price of gold is at US$4264/oz, and down -US$30 from yesterday. Silver is at just over US$63.50/oz and down -US$1.

Oil prices have risen +US$4 to just on US$95.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is up +US$4.50 to US$107/bbl. Saudi Arabia says its pipeline repairs will be completed "within days". Hormuz transits are still very low today with just two ships exiting over the past 24 hours, no tankers escorted (0 dark with transponders off) but ten entering for new loads (1 dark). The Red Sea activity is holding low at about 20 vessels in both directions at the Yemen chokepoint.

The Kiwi dollar is down -10 bps from yesterday, now at 56.6 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +10 bps at 80.7 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at just on 49.8 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.3 and down -10 bps.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$84,103 and down a minor -0.3% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/-1.1%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».