Eyes on US inflation and Wall Street earnings; Japanese machine tool orders strong; Malaysia get growth without many jobs; American sentiment falls again; EU & China tackle car trade; UST 10yr at 5.25%; gold and oil rise; NZ$1 = 56.1 USc; TWI-5 = 59.9

Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news of new Trump delusions.

But first in the US, it will be a federal holiday tomorrow, Columbus Day, and many official agencies aren't working. But many businesses are treating it as a normal day, so it is sort of a long weekend for some, but not others. It is a normal day for financial markets, Wall Street will open, but there are no federal government data releases.

There will be some early Q3 earnings reports coming through this week from some heavy-hitters including some big banks and big tech. There is optimism ahead of these, underpinning markets. Along the way, they will also release CPI (expect 3.6%) and PPI results (expect 5.9%) later in the week

Locally, we will get migration data this week along with the September PMI (expect another expansion) and selected inflation data, and retail sales (electronic cards) data (expect another contraction).

In Australia, we will be watching the September labour market data this week where a rise of +20,000 jobs is anticipated, after August's surprisingly good +40,000 gain. We will also get the NAB business sentiment report. And some will find the RBA minutes interesting.

China will release export data, inflation data, new car sales results, and new lending data this week too.

China's new minimum wage levels are now in place. These range from Beijing's ¥27.7/hr (NZ$7.35) down to just ¥18/hr (NZ$4.80) in some rural areas.

Over the weekend, Japan said its machine tool orders hit a record high in September, underpinned by strong foreign orders, although the growth of domestic orders was strong too. This augers well for their factory sector over the next six months or so.

Malaysia released some positive August data over the weekend, with manufacturing output rising +9.9% from a year ago, retail sales up +3.8% by volume, and jobs growth of +28,800 in the month - although you might have thought the strong factory activity data would have generated a better labour market expansion. The type of production they are getting in electronics isn't particularly job-heavy.

In the US, the latest update of the widely-watched University of Michigan consumer sentiment index has it falling again, now down to its second lowest level ever after the record low recorded in May. (Don't forget, this is from monitoring that started in 1946.) Frustration over the cost-of-living continues to mount. Inflation expectations crept higher again.

In Canada, and as expected, their jobless rate inched up to 6.5% and they recorded a loss of -68,300 jobs in September, about half of them full-time jobs. It is the second month in a row they have had a net jobs decline, and they have never had three consecutive job-loss months. But it is looking likely that could be the case when the October data is released. And that in turn might reduce any chances of a rate hike there.

In Europe, China and the EU have inked a deal to cut Chinese ​exports of hybrid cars by more than half. This comes after an EU negotiator went to Beijing to try an stem their ballooning trade deficit with ‌China. China also agreed to release more rare earths supply to the EU.

In Australia, the weekend real estate auction activity was unusually weak, with less than half the properties offered selling, an unusually low level for them - and now a trend after the prior weeks drop.

The UST 10yr yield is down -1 bp, now just on 5.24%, down -4 bps from this time last week. The 30 year yield is at 5.60%, unchanged but down -3 bps for the week. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +45 bps (unchanged). Their 1-5 curve is now at +56 bps (-1 bp) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +122 bps (unchanged). The China 10 year bond rate is up +4 bps at 1.72%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is now at 3.02%, up +2 bps from Saturday, unchanged for the week. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 5.35%, down -1 bp from Saturday but up a net +4 bps for the week. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.09%, unchanged from Saturday and unchanged for the week.

The price of gold is at US$4194/oz and little-changed from Saturday, up +US$59 from this time last week. Silver is at just under US$61/oz, unchanged but up almost +US$2 for the week.

Oil prices have held firm from Saturday to just over US$91.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is holding at US$104.50/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$91.50 and US$102/bbl respectively. Hormuz transits have stayed low today with just eight ships exiting over the past 24 hours, one tanker escorted (1 dark with transponders off) and 6 entering for new loads but no tankers  (1 dark). Iran is now attacking tankers away from the Strait of Hormuz. The Red Sea activity is still in the low 20 vessels in either direction at the Yemen chokepoint.

The US deal to buy diesel from Russia which will help them fund the war on Ukraine seems to have had no impact yet on prices in the oil market. 'Friends' at the White House will make money out of it but there is certainly no impact at the pump. (And Trump's overnight "energy ceasefire' was news to both Zelensky and Putin neither of whom seem to know anything about it, and Moscow hasn't commented. So it is probably just Trump talking to himself.)

The Kiwi dollar is up +10 bps from Saturday, now at just on 56.2 USc and essentially unchanged from this time last week. Against the Aussie we are holding at 80.4 AUc. Against the euro we are still at just on 50.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 59.9 and unchanged from Saturday, unchanged for the week.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$83,723 and up +1.3% from Saturday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just over +/-0.7%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».