Russia ignores Trump's 'energy ceasefire'; Nobel Prize in economics; More Fed hiking signals; China car sales disappoint; India inflation jumps; UST 10yr at 5.24%; gold dips and oil rises; NZ$1 = 55.8 USc; TWI-5 = 59.7 a 17 year low

Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news oil prices are rising again with Russia answering Trump with energy strikes on Ukraine and the Yemeni fighting raging.

But first, two American economists have been awarded the Nobel Prize in economics “for microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilisation”. Or, showing how well-timed fiscal and monetary policy measures can reduce the economy’s peaks and troughs, and developing ground-up models currently used by central banks and finance ministries across the world.

In the US, there was another Fed voting member out overnight signaling that rate hikes are likely. She warned that an inflationary mindset is taking hold. "I generally think it’s preferable to make smaller adjustments, and to do so relatively quickly, rather than to wait and risk needing a larger course correction," she said. She said the current "stable labour market" gives them room to move.

In China, they reported that less than 3 mln vehicles were sold in September, -8.5% less than in the same month in 2025. September to December is peak season for Chinese car sales so this flop will likely have tough consequences. Despite the fall, that is far more than the equivalent +1.35 mln in the US. But this fall in Chinese EV sales and the immediate prospect exports to the EU will be capped, has seen a very sharp fall in the lithium carbonate price on oversupply fears, down -19.5% over the past month, down -42% from its recent peak in Mid-May.

Indian inflation rose again, now at 5.5% in September and up from 0.2% a year ago. Food makes up most of their index and that was up 7.7%, driven by the cost of onion. Inflation in rural areas was higher than in urban areas.

The UST 10yr yield is little-changed at just on 5.24%. The 30 year yield is at 5.60%, also unchanged. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +45 bps (unchanged). Their 1-5 curve is now at +56 bps (unchanged) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +122 bps (also unchanged). The China 10 year bond rate is down -4 bps at 1.66%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is now at 3.00%, down -2 bps from yesterday. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 5.34%, down -1 bp from yesterday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.05%, down -4 bps.

Wall Street has started its week down slightly with the S&P500 dipping -0.1% and the Nasdaq down -0.5%. Overnight, European markets rose between Paris's +0.4% and London's +1.0%. Yesterday, Tokyo ended little-changed. Hong Kong was up +0.2% but Shanghai was down -0.4%. Singapore ended up +0.3%. The ASX200 closed its Monday trade up +0.8%. And the NZX50 was up +0.6%.

The price of gold is at US$4164/oz and down -US$30 from yesterday. Silver is down -50 USc at just under US$60.50/oz.

Oil prices have risen from yesterday by +US$2.50 to just over US$94/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is up +US$2 at US$106.50/bbl. Transiting ships in the Strait of Hormuz are under constant daily attack now. Hormuz transits have stayed very low today with just six ships exiting over the past 24 hours, two tankers escorted (2 dark with transponders off) and 8 entering for new loads but no tankers  (1 dark). The Red Sea activity is still in the low 20 vessels in either direction at the Yemen chokepoint, somewhat ignored as the fight for control of the nearby land area rages.

The Kiwi dollar is down -30 bps from yesterday, now at just on 55.8 USc. Against the Aussie we are down -10 bps at 80.3 AUc. Against the euro we are holding at just on 50.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 59.7 and down -20 bps from yesterday and a new low since 2009.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$82,540 and down -1.4% from yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at just over +/-1.1%.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk is by following our Economic Calendar here ».