Here's our summary of key economic events over the weekend that affect New Zealand, with news of a shambles on the streets in Paris and New Delhi, and a shambles in the US fiscal management.
But first, this week will feature our Q3-2026 CPI result, and although it may be lower than for Q2, it is likely to be a one-off in advance of a higher Q4 outcome. And this will come in advance of the RBNZ's pre-election OCR review next week. There will also be a PSI and credit card data out this week.
In Australia, there is little economic data out this week although we will get PMI results.
In the US, it will be mainly about Q3 earnings reports even if doubts are growing about tech valuations. There will be PMI survey results, and a key consumer sentiment survey. From Canada we will be the September CPI result.
From China there will be a set of September data including Q3 GDP (expect +4.4%), industrial product data, along with a review of their official Loan Prime rates. In Japan, it will be all about PMIs, factory production and inflation.
Singaporean (non-oil) exports surged a massive +25% in September from August to be +68% higher than year-ago levels which themselves were already elevated and up +21% at that time. They rose from S$61.5 bln in September 2025 to S$93.2 bln in September 2026 on the back of electronics and machinery. A big destination was "Hong Kong", so a back-door for AI gear into China. Meanwhile their imports rose +48% from a year ago.
In India, the street protests by disgruntled youth is still very active, even expanding, despite (or because of?) arrests of the movement's leaders. Of course, street protests in France are ongoing too.
In the US, industrial production was up +2.2% in September from a year ago, better than August's +1.6% gain and better than expected. A significant part of the gain was the +6.7% rise in "business equipment" where the data center buildout activity is covered. Production of "consumer goods" were actually -0.1% lower than a year ago (and that includes cars), although construction and mining had good gains.
Not positive was the New York Fed's services survey which reported that business activity declined significantly in October with firms especially pessimistic about the outlook ahead.
The latest US federal government accounts show a -US$2 tln deficit in the fiscal year ended September. This is its highest level since the pandemic, as spending on their military, social programs and interest on their ballooning debt dwarfed the Trump administration’s cost cuts.
And the same data shows declining corporate tax revenues in the US (down -15% in the past year) even as corporate profits soar (up +27.9% on the same basis). Trump's tax reductions for corporates are leaving individuals having to pick up even more of the burden to fund these growing deficits
Perhaps sensing the outlook turning darker, Fed boss Warsh declined to signal whether another interest rate hike is on the table this month in an overnight IMF conference event. He said hotter-than-expected inflation had not altered his assessment of the US economy. But to hold rates he has to convince 12 other voting members this is 'blind eye' approach is warranted. Still, traders reacted and scaled back expectations of an October rate hike.
At the same Bangkok IMF conference, the Japanese central bank boss Ueda said that their underlying inflation is already quite close to it's 2% target and that "we cannot tolerate it rising any further." Higher interest rates are his tool to prevent that.
Canadian housing starts rose in September to their highest annualised rate since May with a better than expected upturn. However they were down sharply from the unusually high year-ago level.
Alberta went to the polls this weekend on its referendum to leave Canada. It is expected to be soundly rejected with results expected tomorrow.
In Australia, their home building industry is reporting that new home sales fell by -17.5% in the September quarter 2026, reversing the recovery that commenced in 2025. New home sales are now at their lowest quarterly level in 18 months. All states recorded a decline in the latest September quarter. The largest decline was in Queensland (-26%), followed by Victoria (-23%), New South Wales (-17%), South Australia (-7.6%) and Western Australia (-1.7%). They blame rising interest rates, tax changes, and general economic uncertainty.
Meanwhile, auction results stayed low there in the past week to Saturday, with activity in Brisbane especially quiet.
The UST 10yr yield is up +1 bp to 5.10% for a net -11 bps weekly fall. The 30 year yield is at 5.44%, unchanged for a net -16 bps weekly retreat. The key 2-10 yield curve is still at +36 bps (no change). Their 1-5 curve is now at +46 bps (no change) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +108 bps (-1 bp). The China 10 year bond rate is holding at 1.64% and down -4 bps for the week. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is now at 2.94%, unchanged from Saturday but down -6 bps from this time last week. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 5.24%, down -2 bps from Saturday but down -14 bps for the week. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 5.03%, unchanged, down -6 bps for the week.
The price of gold is at US$4166/oz and up +US$9 from Saturday but down -US$30 from last week. Silver is unchanged at just on US$57/oz and down its own -US$4 for the week.
Oil prices have held high from Saturday to just under US$101.50/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is still up at US$110/bbl. A week ago these prices were US$91.50 and US$104.50/bbl so a +5% jump in a week. Hormuz transits have stayed very low today with just four ships exiting over the past 24 hours, 2 tankers escorted (1 dark with transponders off) and only 1 entering for new loads but no tankers (0 dark). The Red Sea activity is holding lower at about 20 transits both ways at the Yemen chokepoint.
The Kiwi dollar is little-changed from Saturday, at just on 56.5 USc, up +40 bps for the week. Against the Aussie we are holding at 81.4 AUc. Against the euro we are also stable at just on 50.3 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 60.4 and up a bit less than +10 bps from Saturday, up +40 bps for the week.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$80,987 and down a minor -0.3% from Saturday at this time, down -2.0% for the week. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been low at just under +/-0.8%.
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