Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news markets seem to like the expected guardrails on the US President, so risk appetites have returned today even if none of the underlying problems have been addressed anywhere. But it seems to be enough for oil prices to fall, tech confidence to return, and yields to retrace.
The greenback has come under pressure while the AI-driven market rotation aspects lost momentum overnight.
In the US, their median inflation expectations for the year ahead were steady at 3.9% in October, the same as in September, and holding at 2023-highs, according to the New York Fed’s Survey of Consumer Expectations.
American wholesale inventories rose in September to breach the US$1 tln level for the first time ever, up +7.8% from year-ago levels. As outsized as that may seem, they are still reporting that their 'sales-to-inventory levels remained low.
Today's US Treasury 3yr bond auction brought higher demand and lower yields as 'safety' trumps returns at this event, compared to the prior equivalent event a month ago. Eyes will be on tomorrow's US CPI outcome.
Taiwanese exports shone again, up almost +59% from year-ago levels and better than the +50% anticipated. The usual suspects drove the gains. That enabled them to post a +US$27.9 bln trade surplus in the October month, far and away the best monthly result they have ever had. A year ago they had a record surplus too but that was 'only' +US$21.5 bln.
We get China's October export data later today.
In China, October CPI inflation was reported at 0.7% as the annual rate, lower than for September (0.9%) and lower than expected (0.8%). The sharply falling cost of vegetables and pork kept a lid on most other costs, including a +20.2% jump in fuel prices. Also, beef prices rose a startling +8.7% from a year ago, and lamb prices by +5.8%. Dairy products fell -1.2% however on the same year-on-year basis.
But going the other way, China's PPI inflation jumped more than the expected 5.3%, coming in at to 5.7% for October and its fastest growth since June 2022 and well above the September 5.0% level. It is an acceleration that will be very unwelcome even though much of it is fuel-cost related.
Germany also reported export and trade performance overnight but theirs was for September. At €141.1 bln, their exports were +7.7% higher than year ago levels and their trade surplus came in at +€15.6 bln and little changed from the +€15.5 bln level for the same month in 2025.
The UST 10yr yield is up +2 bps from yesterday, now at 4.87%. The 30 year yield is at 5.27%, up +1 bp. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +31 bps (down -3 bps). Their 1-5 curve is at +32 bps (unchanged) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +93 bps (+1 bp). The China 10 year bond rate is down -3 bps at just on 1.57% again. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +6 bps at 2.70%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 5.00%, unchanged from yesterday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.79%, also unchanged from yesterday.
Wall Street has resumed its post-election rally after its weekend break with the S&P500 up +2.3% and the Nasdaq up +2.5%. And that is despite Nvidia's sharp fall from grace. Overnight, European markets were all positive too, between Lon don's +1.0% and Frankfurt's +1.7%. Yesterday Tokyo started the trend with a +2.3% surge. But Hong Kong didn't join in, dipping -0.1% and Shanghai only managed a +0.3% Monday gain. Singapore was closed for Diwali. The ASX200 only managed a +0.1% gain while the NZX50 ended -0.2% lower.
The price of gold is down -US$59 at US$4111/oz. Silver is now just under US$53/oz and up +US$1 from yesterday.
Oil prices have fallen -US$3 today, to just under US$88/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is down -US$4.50 at just under US$94/bbl. Hormuz transits have stayed low today with just four ships exiting over the past 24 hours, one tanker escorted (3 dark with transponders off) and seven entering for new loads, no tankers (4 dark). The Red Sea activity features higher traffic at the Yemen chokepoint and the Suez Canal.
And we should probably note that fuel rationing has been re-started in Russia. Even in areas on the border with Mongolia and China. The nation's petrol and diesel exports have been 'suspended'.
While in India, Diwali-induced smog is choking New Delhi.
The Kiwi dollar has recovered a lot since yesterday, up +80 bps to be just under 56.2 USc. Against the Aussie we are up +60c at 81.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up +40 bps at 50.1 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just on 60.0 and up +60 bps.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$75,001, and down -1.2% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has been modest at +/-1.5%.
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