US mortgage applications firm; Japanese machine tool orders stay very high; Chinese car sales weak with Singles Day retail; Aussie housing lending weak; UST 10yr at 5.01%; tech markets rise; gold dips and oil rises; NZ$1 = 55.6 USc; TWI-5 = 59.7

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of tensions persisting in the Middle East and no real progress in 'negotiations'. The oil price has firmed overnight after at least two tankers were attacked, one on fire. In November so far, at least one vessel is being hit every day, on average.

However, first today in the US, home loan interest rates dipped -9 bps to 7.21% and this was enough to bring refinance borrowers back into the market, and those needing mortgage for a new home purchase came too. Overall mortgage applications rose +6.2% from the prior week, only the third rise in the past 13 weeks. At least this one was chunky - the other two were minor. But despite the rise, current levels are still low, down in the 2023/2024 range - and prior to that, levels last seen in the 1990s.

And even though it is Veterans Day in the US and a holiday for some, financial markets are still trading.

Across the Pacific, Japanese machine tool orders for October came in very strong again, up +43.2% from the same month last year which was also very strong. In fact, October 2026 order levels are their second best month ever.

Chinese vehicle sales dropped -9.2% in October to just over 3 million units and this follows September's -8.4% fall. In fact October 2026 vehicle sales were also lower than in 2024. Strong export growth offset a sharp decline in domestic sales.

Also muted was this year's Singles Day sales promotion in China. Sales fatigue and the fact 'sales' now go on all year has seen this once-crucial retail driver fade sharply this year.

In Australia, lending data for the September quarter delivered strong evidence of their real estate market showdown. The number of lending commitments to owner-occupiers were down -9.8% from a year ago, but within that lending to FHBs was down a very chunky -12.3%. But that is 'nothing' compared to how fast lending to investors is falling, with the number of loan commitments down -30.6% in September from June, down -38.5% from a year ago. Loan values declined at similar paces. These are the largest falls on record.

The UST 10yr yield is little-changed from yesterday, still at 5.01%. The 30 year yield is at 5.36%, down -1 bp. The key 2-10 yield curve is now at +27 bps (up +1 bp). Their 1-5 curve is at +28 bps (+1 bp) and the 3 mth-10yr curve is at +107 bps (unchanged). The China 10 year bond rate is up +1 bp at just on 1.59%. The Japanese 10 year bond yield is up +8 bps at 2.80%. The Australian 10 year bond yield starts today at 5.05%, up +7 bps from yesterday. The NZ Government 10 year bond rate is now at 4.80%, also up +7 bps from yesterday.

Wall Street has decided yesterday's fall was overdone with the S&P500 up +1.5% today and the Nasdaq up +2.1%. Apparently, Anthropic's IPO has been  "multiple times" oversubscribed. Coreweave's profit beat also helped sentiment, especially for tech. Overnight, European markets were mixed, between Paris's +0.6% rise and Frankfurt's +1.1% gain. Yesterday Tokyo had another +1.3% surge. Hong Kong fell however, down +1.0% but Shanghai managed a +0.5% gain. Singapore was up +0.6%. The ASX200 ended up +0.3%. The NZX50 only managed a +0.1% gain.

The price of gold is down again, down -US$23 at just on US$4000/oz even. Silver is now just on US$52/oz and up +50 USc from yesterday.

Oil prices have risen +US$1.50 today, to just over US$88/bbl in the US, while the international Brent price is up +US$2 at just on US$94/bbl. This is despite Saudi oil exports now having fully recovered after the earlier Houthi attacks. Hormuz transits have stayed very low today with just five ships exiting over the past 24 hours, one tanker escorted (2 dark with transponders off) and five entering for new loads, no tankers (3 dark). However, the Red Sea activity features a notable pickup in crossings at the Yemen chokepoint.

The Kiwi dollar has fallen overnight, down another -30 bps to be just on 55.6 USc. Against the Aussie however we are down -40c at 81.2 AUc. Against the euro we are little-changed at just under 50.2 euro cents. That all means our TWI-5 starts today at just under 59.7 and down -20 bps.

The bitcoin price starts today at US$74,200 and up +1.8% from this time yesterday. Volatility over the past 24 hours has again been modest at +/-1.0%.

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