The start of a new decade, and election year as well: time to record what you think will happen (and to check how well your 2019 predictions worked out)

The start of a new decade, and election year as well: time to record what you think will happen (and to check how well your 2019 predictions worked out)

2019 is done and dusted. There was no economic crisis event, even if we only made halting progress in some areas and slipped backwards in others.

But it is New Year's eve, so time to think ahead.

How do you think our economy (housing, agriculture, tourism, education, to name the key sectors in decreasing size) will fare in 2020?

And how do you think the big economies on the global stage will fare? Will it be the monetary authorities or the fiscal authorities that shine or stumble?

And how will the financial marketplaces perform?

2020 is election year in New Zealand. There is also an election in the USA this year. How will their economic policies affect us?

It is time to test your prediction skills and bravely record them here, in the Comment stream below. (Sign up here.)

And of course there is the small matter of bragging rights on your 2019 predictions. How good were they? Here is a quick link to last year's set.

For those who like to keep score on the hard data front, here is an updated tally of the coalition Government's progress. A number of those items will also score some forecasts in last year's predictions of many commenters.

This article is to encourage you to record your 2020 predictions.

They can be on any topic that has an impact on the New Zealand economy: anything, including property, interest rates, exchange rates, the RBNZ, insurance, rural issues, the dairy payout, our migration issues, our relationship with China, the big international economic influences, even the shifting international power balance, and the like. But please try to ground them in the economy. (For example fashion or celebrity comments are not relevant, but climate change issues are.)

You will need to be logged in to comment and respect our commenting policies (and respond to others' differing views in a respectful and civil way).

Over to you.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.


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Looking back at last year’s predictions it appears that this site’s comments section has become overrun with pessimists of low acumen and high confidence. Pity you can’t buy an investment property with upvotes fellas. As far as upvotes go, the dumbest amongst you sure did get the most of those in 2019. BuyLowSellHigh had closest Auckland HPI prediction and lonewolfnz had closest Auckland and national median predictions. lonewolfnz actually had quite a few spot-on, including CGT. Here are mine for 2020 -

GDP Growth: 2.5%

Unemployment: 4.2%

Inflation: 1.9%

OCR: 1% all year

Residential Property: Auckland HPI: +1.5%, Auckland Median: 0%, National HPI: +4%

Shares: Steel & Tube Holdings +36% @ $1.05, A2 Milk +37.5% @ $17.50, Kiwi Property Group +10% @ $1.62, Arvida Group Limited +15% @ $1.78, Metro Performance Glass +29% @ $0.35

World/NZ Economy:
Global risks remain, with NZ market heading towards bottom of current cycle in 2021/22. 40% chance of international financial crisis in 2020. No recession for NZ (two consecutive quarters of negative growth) in 2020.

Net Migration: +45K

National Median Rent: +6%

Politics: National/Act form a coalition govt, TOP announces that it will de-register. Act gets a second MP in parliament.

Residential Tenancies Act Proposed changes to fixed term tenancy provisions will not make it into law.

All predictions are for this time next year.

An extensive list DD well done. One I especially hope you are right is the RTA changes, 90 day notice in particular.

If lonewolfnz is worthy of mention it goes to show you are right some of the time but never all the time. One of the last postings of his was that he was cock-a-hoop about a “sneaky buy” of Bitcoin at $US12300. Bitcoin has only dropped since then.

Top performing asset of the year by miles (plus 95%)

That makes a lot of sense well done.

It is high time and more that residential property was not seen as an investment thing much beyond investing in your own home. It has become economic cannibalism

That's not exactly a prediction, it's just your opinion of what is right or wrong

"Looking back at last year’s predictions it appears that this site’s comments section has become overrun with pessimists of low acumen and high confidence"

Would you prefer that this site’s comments section become overrun with optimists? There are other sites available which provide you with that view already.

Also remember you have a choice to simply ignore and not read the comments of the pessimists.

Readers should have the choice of differing viewpoints.

Prediction? 2020 election. Much posturing & hype steadily developing from March onwards, revelation of “scandals” too. Basically, little changed from 2017. Labour’s leaders aura diminishing certainly. The Greens will be returned because they got there last time despite a great attempt at self destruction, and because of the international profile, that part of the electorate is compelled to vote for them, willy nilly. The National party has no viable coalition party, now or potentially. Even at his popular peak John Key couldn’t get them into power on their own. The current leader and lot, are a mere shadow of that halcyon time. Therefore how does average NZ regard the prospect of a Labour Greens government? With considerable alarm I would wager. That means, like it or not, NZF has to be returned as the safety brake. So back to the prediction. Same sort of election, same sort of government, but looking unfresh, strained, and uninspired. God Defend New Zealand!

God Depend New Zealand ... 'cos we can't rely on this coalition to get anything done , let alone to understand what actually needs doing ....

... pray ... take up a religion .. any one will do , we depend on a God to save us from this shambolic government ...

You already have

taken up a religion.

Certainly one of the biggest believers around.


Well, you appear to be practicing what you preach by worshipping a false idol in the form of Trump. This idol, made of fool's gold, exemplifies division, racism, misogyny and ignorance. I think I'll stick to good old atheism.

What I admire about atheists, is their ability to get through with life, without any invisible means of support.

Yeah - it's really not that hard.

Can't say who will be PM after the election,but i will say this,any advertised vacancy for an experienced wrapper of fish and chips will be filled smartly.
More NZX delistings as overseas companies see value in NZ companies that kiwis are blind to.
Mortgage interest rates to rise late 2020
I will still be unemployed/able but inching closer every day to thanking the PM for his/her contribution.


Wow, looking at last years predictions I got about 7/10.

Most of my predictions for this year seem to mirror last years as well. So apologies for where they repeat.

1. Rich will continue to get richer.
2. Inequality will increase
3. Companies will go bust due to dodgy leadership. No one will be held accountable.
4. Politicians will be hopelessly out of their depth, but Labour will probably retain power.
5. Costs will continue to increase, wages won't.
6. The "Crash" still wont happen, rather it will be a slow decline that will continue to worsen until we all realize too late.
7. National will get a new leader. But they will likely be worse.
8. Jacinda's wedding will be a virtual state affair, with Neve as flowergirl appearing on every single magazine cover just in time for the election.
9. Kiwis will be shocked about something, but be completely apathetic in their actions.
10. I will still come to this site to read the excellent articles and sometimes excellent comments.

" Jacinda's wedding .... on every single magazine cover just in time for the election."
A bit cynical but Spot on noncents... it is indeed a pity that people will respond and get politics mixed with the feel good vibe.

Well if this does happen...the guy behind the TURN ARDEN campaign is going to be run off his feet..

(5) didn’t happen this year did it?

Predictions are for people with way too much self importance and are usually in the domain of those who cannot articulate 'why' they can quantify outcomes with precision. They should be treated with skepticism.

1. Anyway, I think 2020 could be a positive year for the gold price; however, for the price to really amp up and hit all-time highs in USD, sentiment will be an important factor. If gold does breakout and heads north of USD1,900, you might see the mainstream starting to dip their toes and get exposure to precious metals.

2. I also think that 2020 could be tough for businesses who rely on consumer spending in the NZ economy. Let's face it: this is an inevitable phenomenon in the end of credit-driven booms. The key driver of the NZ and Australia credit-driven booms has been the stupid housing bubble for which there appears to be a coordinated effort to create market distortions. There is no historical evidence that this Frankenstein approach to 'wealth creation' works (even though the ruling elite seems committed to the idea).

I will admit that recent retail spending data has been positive (particularly compared to Australia), but the real indicators are the extent to which manufacturers and retailers are relying on price discounting / promotions to drive incremental sales (or to even stay in business).

3. More people will buy Bitcoin and other digital assets. The emotional hysteria will ramp up if takes off again and heads north of USD20,000, but there will also be plenty of 'I told you so' commentators should there be another large price fall similar to what happened when the price fell to USD3,000.

" Predictions are for people with way too much self importance " . .

... and then .... you lay out your list of predictions ...

Thanks J.C. .... love your sense of humour ... split me Gummy nappies larfing ... cheers , champ !

you lay out your list of predictions ..

You didn't read what I wrote. Not one of my three points is a "prediction". They're observations with potential outcomes, none of which I "expect" to happen. One of the issues I have with "predictions" is that they're bullet proof on the whole. For ex, the following:

"All thjngs being equal and representative of recent times, the economy will move along somewhere near and about 3% of GDP growth."

What value or insight does that really add to any discussion?

Hahaha you're on a roll today, keep the jokes coming please

.. " observations with potential outcomes " .... if that is not a roundabout way of saying " predictions " I dont know what is ...

J.C. is showing us that a new comedic talent has emerged ...

.. 2020 ought to be a-freaking-mazing , Yvil : see you in the next decade : Gummy .

It would be great getting everyone at Interest to make some predictions as well, com'on please do it!

Not sure why. Without the requisitie knowledge and understanding, most predictions are usually sentiment driven (what people want to believe). What people really need is a more Socratic mindset towards understanding the limits of knowledge.

You mean the natural progression of maturity in so much, the older you get the less you know, you know? At the other end of the scale though, I do like Wilde as, ” the tragedy of youth is that it is wasted on the young.” Agree with you, knowledge is highly valuable, but how it is undertaken, understood and utilised, is the key.

You mean the natural progression of maturity in so much, the older you get the less you know, you know?

Not really. More like "all I know is that I know nothing" (Socrates). I think this is quite important and injects humility into how we perceive things. Now think of that in the modern NZ context where you have people such as The Hosk as key opinion leaders on just about anything. You can even extend that to Ashley Church's prophetic musings on the housing bubble. As I suggested, a more Socratic disposition would encourage people to challenge predictions, etc as to their validity and relevance.

It has been said that the last person that was said to know all that could be known, at the time, was Leonardo Da Vinci. At times certain contributors here, have made it pretty clear that they themselves are now the relative incumbent. Yes in general, people naturally tend to know or believe, what is preferable to them. Not much can change that, it’s been imbued in society for all the ages, but education, experience and some balance, should all going well, add some improvement to the mix.

Why ? for the same reasons we make predictions, don't take yourself so seriously J.C. how about "because it will be fun" ?

Why ? for the same reasons we make predictions, don't take yourself so seriously J.C. how about "because it will be fun" ?

Depends on what you think is "fun." For ex, you might think that trolling is fun. I have no issue with superficiality (in small doses), but not as a raison d'etre.

What is "trolling" ?

Trolling is fishing for and attempting to trigger emotional reactions. A common practice on the interent across subjects such as climate change, the housing bubble, etc.

... I predict that sometime next year , the price of a standard 25 pack of cigarettes will rise to over $ 40 ...

He who holds himself out to be a confident predictor of the future is like a dog walking on its hind is not done well but one is surprised to see it done at all.

. . people who made predictions , especially those about the future , usually come unstuck in their prognostications because most times the future isn't what it used to be ....

Live your work GBH

Has GBH ever thought about taking up baseball? A catcher perhaps?

. . I couldn't berra the thought of spending all day catching other guys balls ... snaffling their flys .. reaching for their foul balls ...

Yea! It would be de ja vu all over again!

Christopher Luxon will lead National to a General Election 2020 upset

Todd Muller to lead the Gnats after 2020 election if they fail to regain power . .

Well "IF" he leads National, then yes, I'd agree with you but I don't think it will happen by the 2020 election, I would say you're spot on for 2023

Since he's not a sitting MP, it's rather difficult for him to lead the party.

That’s not a prediction. Everyone knows it will happen.

- I stand by my Sept 19 prediction that house prices will reach new all-time highs in NZ in March 2020
- The recent pick up in swap rates will reverse and interest rates will still fall more
- Inflation will pick up (surprising most, not me) but the Reserve Bank will NOT rise the OCR in response
- Governments will still print money and do whatever is required to keep the party going
- The BIG predicted crash will still not happen in 2020 (there will be some wobbles though)
- Labour will have another 3 years
- Trump will also get re-elected

I wish you all HAPPINESS and POSITIVITY in 2020

*Record low int rate to continue push property prices to new highs around the country with Auckland joining in. Up 5.5 percent nationally.
*Consequently the DGM who can afford to will thenselves become property owners and be vocal proponents but under a new persona
*DFA will become tired of their nz correspondent and stop contact.
*Trump to lose and become Russian citizen
*Jacinda will show leadership by sacking Twyford and Lees-Galloway
*Gummy Bear will indeed be the hero being knighted in Queens birthday honours for service to the community.
*International inbound tourism will take a small hit due to climate change hysteria
*Strong net migration as NZ seen as safe haven from international chaos +45k. Would be higher but for the govt election year rhetoric and vainly trying to stem the flow.

. . d'ya notice that there were 180 people given new years honours ... exactly 90 men , 90 women ...

Coincidence .... or has Labour put honours on a quota system too ? .... teee heeeeeee ....

Talkback call of the year from "Sue" this morning saying that parliament is worse off for the females and was better when run by conservative males. Tim Wilson wisely did not comment

What makes you think they all identify as only one of the two, of the 70+ genders available? ;-).

... 70 + genders available !!!! . .. wow ... you get to more interesting pubs and parties than I do ...

Just blokes and blokettes hereabouts , pardner ...

just checking -'Gummy Bear Hero' is a nom de plume? Right?

. ... its just the name they gave me in Papa New Guinea . . back in the day when I spent a gap year making porno videos with the local transsexual dwarfs ...

Happy days .... sigh .

2020: the world breaks, finally, on central bank stimulunacy.

There's nowhere to hide from the distortions created by this huge global command economy, and the unwind will be a world of misery and pain.

Just wish I could predict bond yields: I can argue equally for lower yields (after this last three months rises), or, if there is paradigm change because central banks can in no way get control of the consequences of what they have done, and global including NZ yields on the long end right now could be interpreted to infer that (or the beginnings of, alongside the repo crisis), then if risk is finally priced in, if we end up on the shores of price discovery via free markets, again, a total bond rout is coming and losses to match the 50% to 65% equities correction.

As I say, a toss up, but I think I'm punting for low interest rates for years from here (assuming CBs can stay alive) and an increasingly zombified global economy - that is already well advanced - necessitating falls in our standard of living, and bigger and bigger states, which are even more intrusive in our lives (were that possible).

In the Hubbard household, gin sales will be strong.

Great stuff. But about the equities correction, the worst I've hear succintly explained based on long-term reversion to mean is closer to 50%. Furthermore, very difficult to put a time frame on that. I think that Japanification is already well under way.

Hussman (Google) predicts a 63% S&P correction. Generally, the correction to the last decades stimulunacy will be to take out the gains of entire decade back to the compounding rate for cash :)

This bubble is so enormous. On PEG basis, US shares have never been more expensive, ever. Apple up 100% since January 2019, Microsoft some similar absurd figure, on flat lining earnings (1/3 of S&P companies in negative earnings growth for 2019) yet everyone sitting in passive index tracking funds will be mainly invested in these and about four other tech firms. Why would anyone be sitting in those funds at this late stage of the longest, but weakest expansion in history, where markets are responding only to the Fed liquidity spigot with no look to fundamentals? Values will matter, again. The CB's will lose control of this monster they've created.

Just eight certainties;
1. That all posters have a great and prosperous year.
2. Housing articles on will still get the most comments exceeding any other topic and very rarely attracting less than 100 comments.
This will happen whatever the market does as to many a house is seemingly about a financial investment (and for many possibly their only one) rather than a home.
3. There will be continual claims on of an impending crash in the economy and/or housing and whether or not it happens, one day they will be able to say “told you so”.
4. Unfortunately Trump will be re-elected by being able to sell all negatives such as impeachment, declining US economy, and losing trade war with China as attempts by Democrats to destroy the USA
5. Housing in Auckland will see 3% growth, the regions growth rates slowing and any risk of anything more or less seeing RBNZ adjusting LVRs and if any decline likely LVRs loosened.
6. Greater interest in housing by investors as (a) interest rates remain low and term deposits mature (b) capital gain seems more likely, and (c) CGT well and truly is off the table (it is ironic that anything tax free attracts more interest that it really deserves).
7. Interest rates remaining low or lower.
8. I will be one year older and hopefully still breathing.

No recessions in NZ or the US, fairly steady growth of around 2% in each. Maybe a technical recession in the UK or German economies, growth of 0.5-1٪ over the year.

Everyone stays mostly pat on interest rates.

SPX wobbles a bit around Trump tweets and US polls, nothing too serious. A sharp dip if Warren or Sanders are elected, retraced before end-of-year if they don't have a friendly Senate. A shrug for any other result. A forgettable 3300 to close out the year. A partial UK/EU free trade deal, no changes to UK (or NZ) immigration in 2020. Boris polls stay positive, but this will not be reflected in my Facebook feed.

Crypto gets less interest than last year (no prediction on prices), oil and gold up slightly. NZ house prices up, even in Auckland.

The sky will not fall, but the prevailing sentiment will remain "Chicken Little".

NZ Politics
Labour / Greens / NZF to keep power. Greens to scrape in, NZF to suprise everyone with 11% party vote, largely by whistle-blowing self-interest and bigotry
National to get more votes than any others, but no friends.

International politics
Trump reelected, chaos to continue.
Brexit to happen, chaos to be widely predicted, little long term fallout.
China to continue aggressively continue to build it's position, still no very big power plays.

6% NZX50 at the end of the year, plenty of ups and downs between here and there as we look for reasons to panic

OCR - 1% most of the year, dropping to 0.75%.
Retail rates to be slightly higher at this time next year, as banks fatten margins for new cap ratios

Auckland HPI to drop 4% through the year, but no panic.
NZ ex AKL HPI to finish the year flat, but with lumpiness in regions (Coastal NI cities up & top of the South Island up, rural NZ down).
Supply to continue to come on stream quickly in Auckland, quelling prices. Through the year there will be a real awakening around the crappiness of what's being built.

GDP Growth = Immigration as a proportion of population

The Everything-bubble won't pop, but the general nervousness around it will hold down confidence, while things quietly tick along, doom can wait another 12-24 months.

tks OB.ditto to all of that.

Cheers, but if history is anything to go by, you are anchored to the wrong wharf :)

1. National decide not to be sponsored by chinese interests, launch policy around tighter immigration and win the election. Haha fat chance. COL is relected.
2. Trump does not sign a trade agreement with china.
3. Trade war continues to escalate.
4. Cyber warfare really gets going.
5. China continues to bully anyone that comments against CCP policy on hong kong, south china seas military build up or 2 China policy.
6. US and China continue to print money to prop up their stock markets and property bubbles. This is called out as economic war on not just each other, but everyone else as well. Neither care.
7. Brexit happens...finally, and the EU starts to unravel further.
8. Trump is reelected.
9. Turkey releases a huge flood of refugees into the EU and shuts key US bases after becoming tired of political pressure from the US. Russia laughs.
10. That is the final straw for some EU members and borders are re policed to hold back the invasion of immigrants, into the EU, but not Britton so Boris is vindicated.
11. More right wing nationalist parties across the EU get voted in. Society in the EU has really had enough chaos and things there are right on the edge of getting really bloody over there.
12. We all realise how lucky we are to be in NZ.
13. One tree hill catches fire. Council realise policy to remove grazing was stupid. Anyone with farming exposure agrees with them.
14. Not sure it the everything bubble finally pops but wish it would just get on with it and drive a massive asset correction back to reality. If it does bankers throw themselves from windows again. Those with lots of low yield or interest only borrowing start getting phone calls from their banks managers about finding more equity...quickly.

PRC ends the one country two systems arrangements with Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan.

PRC inflicts trade repercussions on all those countries speaking out against the persecution of Uighers and/or its actions in HK, Macau and Taiwan.

Economic and military ties between BRICS strengthens. Change of reserve currency to CNY.

Civil unrest grows in UK, Europe and US.

All finite resources continue to be extracted/depleted.

All renewable resources continue to be over-drawn.

All sinks continue to be over-filled.

Feed-back loops begin to kick in.

Several graphs begin to descend

But the shrill pronouncements will still be of growth in all things, forever.

#Uyghur jihadists org Turkistan Islamic Party released Propaganda footage from June this year in #Idlib, #Syria titled “We are Ready”. They are now fighting along side their Al Qaeda ally HTS against Syrian Arab Army Link

Ten year extrapolation , New Zealand median house price to reach 1.175 million by end 2029, Auckland a lofty 1.75 million, NZD . ( Emphasis on the NZD ) Median rent $ 675 pw
Forecasts for 2020
1. RBNZ and RBA will both reduce the OCR. For the RBNZ , GDP remains too weak to create the type of inflation it wants, after all ,we are an economy, for so long based primarily on housing. Our big cousins .Australia and China now a drag . NZ 10 year yield sub 1.0 percent.
2. 2020 real estate sale volumes will be below those of 2019. Historically the third lowest in the past 30 years. The lower OCR will not increase sale volumes as anticipated. Home ownership rates to fall ( if Stats NZ does not further adjust its numbers. )
The gap between Auckland and New Zealand ex Auckland median prices will increase.
3. Petrol at the pump will reach new highs look thru inflation.
4. Short NZD/JPY. Long JPY
5. Some bright spark will question the RBNZ forecasts and leadership.
6. Continuing on from last year, Fletchers will continue to deliver more bad news. Once the buybacks are near end , its on the chopping block.
7. China will tread heavily on toes somewhere in Asia or Pacific.

The venerable Christopher Joye predicts a housing crash in Australian house prices 2-3 times greater than any previous correction (just not yet).

NZ no recession but weak consumer growth.
Increased cost of living putting ever more strain on marginal households barely hanging in there now.
Gradual Japanification already alluded to by others continues.
Property in cities and regions sees continued moderate growth but stiff competition from older investors for good property seeking yield as TD rates continue to fall. Therefore OCR falling.
Growing discussion (also already mentioned) around quality of what NZ building but not a lot done.
Banks attempt to lure more in with unusual promos.
More exclusions and restrictions announced by the insurance industry. Greater premium increases esp. in coastal places and Wellington region.
Greater liability in tourism leading to a few business closures.
Trump reelected.
Only small increases in petrol price at the pump but increasing sense of pressure of cost of living on many.
Proposal to register landlords but RTA proposed changes thrown out as a concession to this.
Unemployment stable. Those who seek work get it.
Marginal, highly- leveraged businesses going under.
Signigicantly increased numbers on social housing list. This will become a major electoral issue with big announcements and overblown promises made.
Internal ructions within Labour as JA attempts to assert leadership ultimately failing.
Change of government at NZ election sparking brief rally in property. Nicky Kaye rises through Nat ranks.
Australian government ropey and heavily criticized but pull back from the brink via massive bribery.

That's about it and apologies I can't put percentages on.

Copy and paste three from last year + 1 new. I think these were correct and still are.

1. Poverty and deprivation in NZ will keep skyrocketing upwards. This will be driven by the increase in tobacco excise (of 10% + CPI), and the government failing to acknowledge the EY report showing that an enormous 53% of the smoking population have zero price elasticity!!, ie they do not reduce their consumption in response to price increases, but rather smoke themselves into abject poverty. Maori, Pacific Islanders and the mentally ill, who studies have shown smoke at higher rates than the general population, will be among the most detrimentally affected.
2.The low sale volumes observed in upper quartile Auckland will translate into tangible declines in sale price for upper quartile Auckland. This will be driven by domestic unaffordability, a dearth of foreign buyers, phase 2 AML on 1/1/2019, and banks taking a close look at their revalued risk weighted assets resulting in tighter credit for that sector of the market.
3. The rest of the real estate market will tick along with healthy gains in the provinces and lower quartile Auckland. This will be driven by monetary policy driving housing loan acceleration (which is now positive), and retiring baby boomers cashing in their equity to buy up in nice places in NZ.
4. The NZ economy will do quite well this year. The total credit impulse according to RBNZ C5 data is strongly positive right now. This is in stark contrast to this time last year when it was seriously negative. Furthermore the government has committed to relaxing it's ridiculous austerity targets. If the government sticks to its guns and spends a little then aggregate demand should increase this year.

Merry New Years everyone. Maybe 2020 will be the year that the comments section matures?

Maturity is over rated.

This is my prediction for what Christchurch will be like in 2030.

Happy New Year Brendon ... enjoyed reading that , for the most part . ..

... I'm still hoping an extra bridge will be constructed over the Waimakariri River ... to link the Oxford/West Eyreton/Cust area into the city via Harewood , somewhere along Pound Road ...

And , a new secondary school be built at Amberley ..

Happy New Year to you too Gummy. A new Waimakariri bridge in that location would not be that expensive and a small toll would quite quickly pay for it. There would be multiple benefits from the bridge. It would certainly be more beneficial than a motorway to Ashburton that some politicians want...

Let's keep growing eh Brendon?

Nothing like it, eh?

Good luck with that. I see light rail from Chch to Fairlie (or similar) with arterials. I see irrigation at an end. I see big dairy going the way of global finance, and many Chch-ers migrating hurriedly to the Plains to indulge in food-production. Whis is why the cobbled-together-in-a-hurry light rail.... But I reckon there is a better than even chance the leadership won't be there to make it happen in an orderly fashion. Timescale? By 2030, according to the World3 scenario (and it's more recent reviews). And what are those highways made from/with, again?

I'm sitting in a smoke-reddened, smoke-darkened environment. Thinking about the Sydney Harbour bridge fireworks, and the parallels to 'Fiddling while Rome burns'...... That smoke is indicating a classic feed-back loop (how much carbon just went into the Aussie atmosphere in an instant, compared to how many trees over how many years planned hereabouts?). Growth is the systemic problem; it stands to reason growth cannot be the answer. Good luck with the optimism.....

Happy New Years PDK. Leadership will be difficult. I believe in the science of greenhouse gas induced climate change. I think we should be doing more...

I was having a thought experiment a few days ago that to compliment gradual NZ wide carbon zero efforts that we could create pioneer climate change districts where change was much faster. These districts could be called carbon free districts.

These experimental carbon free areas could help guide the gradual society wide efforts. For instance, somewhere on your 'light rail' route from Christchurch to Fairlie the government could buy 10km by 10km of farm land, readjust the farm sizes down to 1sqkm/ 100hectares blocks and offer them back for sale with the the following rules.

100 seperate farms. No fossil fuels or imported fertilizer into the carbon free district. One central market town and reduced taxes for all transactions (trade, employment etc) between carbon zero residents/farmers, say a flat 10% tax. That tax revenue should go to the local government of the carbon zero district to build carbon zero infrastructure.

The purpose of these carbon zero districts would be to experiment and innovate on the transition from our high imported energy town/country economies based on fossil fuel combustion and resource extraction (degrading soil, waterways etc) to a low imported energy town/country economy based on carbon zero electrification and sustainable ecological processes.

If I had the time I would write up the proposal as a proper article...

PDK to help your grimness and difficulty seeing an optimistic future have a think about who should win this prize...

Great post. I think change is coming from the Farmer's Market types, up. It never comes from the top, down, because those who see themselves 'winning' in a system, never want to change it.

The problem is that it isn't a level playing-field. Those who use fossil energy (and fertiliers) are using so much more energy per head, that they of course out-compete manual labour, and with current technology, out-compete renewable energy. So it either needs subsidised or legislated-for. I prefer legislation, and we have to remember that the previous Government subsidised the fossil fuel industry using taxpayer money.

I've already written such an article - I'll send it to

Good stuff. I would be interesting in reading that article :)

Land prices within the carbon zero districts would be less. A carbon free farm that cannot use a diesel tractor would have a lower property value than one where this extractive externality is allowed. So the government would be providing a kind one-off subsidy to the new carbon free farmers. The tax free status would also be a kind of subsidy. But these subsidies would be for a good cause. They would be providing some local adjustments to counter existing unpriced extractive externalities. They would help NZ make a needed tranisition, using a bottom up process that you described PDK.

In the UK there is a lot of talk about creating freeports with lower taxes, tariffs and with a pro land-use change urban development authority. So if the UK can do this for trade why cannot NZ use the same approach for climate change?

The farmers and residents in exchange for the subsidy they receive should agree to be 'open source' with their innovations, trade etc for research purposes. This should help effective innovations to be spread faster...

Some businesses that embrace the zero carbon challenge may like to invest in the carbon free districts. In the long run this business know-how might benefit NZ-Inc.

Here is some information about the UKs likely Free Port Policy.

As a continent burns - it's impossible to be optimistic, particularly given their inept leadership;

Tick all the boxes in the 'hotspots' column upper left corner.

Optimism has nothing to do with external factors, i.e. what happens out of your control, optimism comes from within, it's a state of mind and we all have the choice of being optimistic or not. At any given time, you can always find something bad happening on this planet, so by your definition you could never be an optimist, on the other hand you can also aways find something good, hence be optimistic or happy. What we focus on is our choice Kate

Last years prediction:

* Inflation won't throw any suprises and will trend the same to slightly falling. (Barring the 2018 Q4 result).
* Unemployment will be slightly higher by year end.
* OCR won't rise, possibility of a 0.25% cut in the second half of the year.
* Oil prices, god only knows. A wild guess, continued volatility, maybe around $65/bbl by year end.
* NZD/USD in low 0.60s by year end.
* Migration dropping to around 55k.
* Hillary Clinton will throw her name in again for Dem candidate or endorse Joe Biden. Maybe an early 2020
prediction. One of those two will be the "chosen" canditate to run against Trump who will still be President
in 12 months.
* Simon Bridges will still be leader of the National Party.

This years prediction:

* Inflation around the current 1.5%.
* Unemployment rate at 4.4%.
* OCR will drop to 0.75% by year end.
* Migration still at the 55k net rate.
* GDP growth at 2.4%.
* Trump will be re-elected unless Sanders gets the nomination. Dems would rather lose to Trump than have
Sanders POTUS. Still think Biden will get the nomination.
* Bridges will run as National Leader. COL will still be in at the end of the year. ACT will poll around 1.7% and
there won't be enough for a National/ACT coalition.
* No NZ recession.

Happy New Year all.

The current end-of-year conundrum centers around the direction for the global economy, though more optimistic of late still highly uncertain – at least that much has improved from 2017 when everyone was unified in their mistake. Much of that, however, rests upon the opinions and “expertise” of those central bankers like Jay Powell who have a knack for identifying the right factors though possessing no earthly idea why they are so important (or what makes them lean one way or another).

And while Powell reassures us everything is fine, China’s Communist leadership continues to act in the expectation of more of the same at the very best like the last couple of highly insufficient years.

Same planet, very different worlds. But only the one global economy.

The 2010’s were scheduled to end on a high note. The decade most decidedly did not, as only the one group of actors – the wrong ones, I might add – figured in advance. Instead, the 2020’s begin under even greater suspicion because the Communists are so much better at reading economics than all the West’s prematurely-celebrated Economists.

Rather than end the decade on such a decidedly dejected and sour note, I will add that I remain deeply optimistic (yes, you read that right) about the long run – maybe even the 2020’s. Once the world stops listening to Economists and central bankers on any topic, and starts to pay attention to what the Communists are up to, what will follow should be one of the most inspiring periods of economic growth in modern human history. All the ingredients are there, save the one (that little something about the dollar).

Maybe that puts us just a little closer to that potential upside, in the grand scheme of things, though the world right now continues to sink, slowly, in the wrong direction. Link

The climate emergency crisis will continue to worsen because not enough people are going vegan.

.. if I ate a vegan ... bonked one on the head and biffed them into the Gummy family big pot for whole cows ... would that make me a vegan too ... or just a vegetarian ....

Trying hard to do me duty by the environment ...

... there ought to be more of it ....

Predictions are never that accurate from most of the posters on!
Difficult to be accurate when we have a so-called inept government that needs to be kicked out for bring totally Lost!
They are going to have major difficulty justifying the fact that they have fulfilled none of their policies that they campaigned on!
I predict that old Gordon will continue to post negative things about ChCh when most people with any knowledge of the property market will be able to state that ChCh is the most stable and sensible market in NZ!
Great place to be positively geared and quality lifestyle assured.

As Marc Faber said : predictions are difficult in a totally free market economy ; but in an economy dominated by government manipulation and by freely printing of money , they are impossible ...

... happy new year , THE MAN 2 . .

I actually think government manipulation makes predictions easier, you just need to understand what the government is aiming to achieve


Sorry to disillusion you, but a totally free market economy does not exist-that would be anarchy. All economies need rules for them to work. Just look at the role played by banks in the GFC to make the point. Patents are useless without legal protections. I could keep giving you examples,but I hope I have made my point.

Dream on The Boy. Tell that to those who have left your poor old town, those who are currently leaving and those who are currently contemplating leaving. The Coalition will scream back into power as the current opposition are simply not looking like a potential government.

There's a lot of money being spent on 4 lane highways to bypass Christchurch completely. I think the government should also spend some money on building walls/checkpoints to keep the crime contained.

As an optimist "DGM" who still has some hope in humanity:
- Auckland HPI down 7% from peak (2017) at the end of the year
- No OCR decreases or increases (I believe in you, Orr...)
- COL wins elections, perhaps without Winston this time
- National finally gets rid of Bridges, doesn't stop licking China's bottom though
- Moderate increase in rents in Auckland (2-3%) for the year
- Residential sales volume in Auckland goes up 10-20%
- Nationwide (ex. Auckland) house prices still up YoY
- Some unpredictable event finally triggers the global downturn
- I will get called a moron, fool, idiot, uneducated etc. for stating my opinion in the comments section.

An "optimist DGM" you say...

On a scale of 1 to 10 he is negative 7

As I said last year, specific predictions are difficult to impossible. However, a lot of investment is really about probabilities. I think it’s best to have a defensive stance in portfolios at this time, both in NZ and Australian property, and many stock markets, including US and NZ. It has been a long bull run, and the credit cycle in long in the tooth. It still could take a while to play out, nobody knows. Popular momentum investing will eventually take a big hit, and the value investors will do very well as things turn. There will come a time to be agressive, and now is not it. That time may come in 2020, or after. I’m making sure I have plenty of cash at the ready, and I also have been liking gold in late 2018 and 2019, for when that turn comes. It has done quite well already. Not a great time to invest in NZ property or popular NZ or US shares. Those markets are way overvalued.

You should be a politician, so many words to say so little

Sure, long story short: best to be defensive, and watch out for market drawdowns in 2020-21. It’s been a very long property and stock run, and we’re nearing the end of the credit/business cycle. Foolish to be aggressive and bullish. I’ve been trimming stocks and holding cash and some gold. Still 66% invested in long term stocks, and not selling property I own outright.


Your approach is very similar to mine. I have around 58% of my portfolio in dividend stocks, 15% in cash, 23% in property and some miscellaneous non quoted holdings. I have no debt. I am disciplined in my approach and I recognize my limitations. The future is by definition unknowable.

Voters will wake up in 2020 and National will win the election and if you thinks that is near on impossible, I recon Trump will come through and also win the 2020 election.

Carlos - having watched that vid-clip, how can you equate National with having any answers? (Actually, when you listen to Bridges on Morning Report, the one thing you notice is his incapability to answer questions).

Nobody is proposing what we have to do, not even the Greens. Indeed, democratic voting is looking more and more like a collection of short-term hip-pocket decisions - with fatal long-term consequences.

House prices to stay stable.
Ocr cut to 0.75%.
National and Act to form a coalition government.
All in all, I don't see much action, another year of the same.

My business turnover will increase 400% this year.

Good on you, great to see a positive, driven comment, wishing you best of luck

... I'm positive that Donald Trump will regain US presidency this year ...

And that , barring Taxcinda choosing to get married this year ... Soyman will match her in our election ...

. . Trump , Bridges and Boris Johnson showed in 2019 that they were maturing in their roles , gaining credibility ....

I get the feeling that she doesn't want the job again.

Looks like she would be happier doing other stuff. She'd be happier with other people around.
She doesn't like it.

... agreed ... the role of leader was dumped on her by a little man .... but , Taxcinda doesn't seem comfortable as numero uno ....

Watch Grant Robertson ... he wants to be top dog again ...

That is a good prediction. In fact it would undoubtedly, have been a good prediction as well, about the time the good lady actually took up the reins. I believe too that JA is a good and sincere person. That is a rather awkward persona versus politics. Win the election. Move aside for family priorities. I wouldn’t blame her. And GR slides in through the back door to realise the naked ambition. Plan B to perfection. There it is.

. . " And GR slides in through the back door to realise the naked ambition " ...

Oooooh , you are ever so naughty : haaaaaa !

Cheeky, more like it! I mean a plan “B” will always shape up irresistibly to some.

You may be right.
I think she is tiring of petty politics already.
Maybe if they return for another term she will step down and the next leader will be free to push through the cgt.
She only stated it wouldn't be passed under her leadership.
Bit leftfield and not a prediction though I do wonder.
Best of luck all in 2020.


Please stick to the funnies...………….then you are really entertaining, BUT when you spout nonsense such as "Trump, Bridges and Boris showed in 2019 that they were maturing in their roles", I do wonder about your sanity. at the very least, Trump and Johnson are congenital liars. Trump is committed to gutting the Environmental Protection Agency(EPA) and given another term- which he may well get, he may succeed. he will not however succeed in resurrecting the coal industry for which we can be thankful. last year alone, 5 coal companies collapsed, including Murray Energy, the largest private company and a major Trump donor.

Trump , Boris & Bridges are congenial liars .... happy to pull the wool over our eyes .... every bit as much as their respective opponents on the left do ...

... but ... I think we can all agree that the war on global worming is better handled by those fine gentlemen on the right of the political divide , than by those nut-bars on the left ...

That will be a big, fat NO to the last statement

Thx Yvil, I hope the gods of abundance smile on you too this year.

Exactly, get out there and make a few things happen. You'll go way past your predictions.
Don't be limited by your predictions.

That explains a lot.

Heres a prediction.

Poor old PDK and his population control wishes, wish for china style one child policies here in New Zealand.

Heres the prediction 1, poor old PDK will fail in finding support from women in New Zealand, majority of women in New Zealand for population control. You know some one in government or NGO's regulating their pregnancies.

Here the prediction 2, poor old PDK will fail in finding support for any initiatives for population control that include and facilitate the murder of new borns, a la china death rooms.

by powerdownkiwi | 31st Dec 19, 1:25pm
HT - China's one-child policy was the best move by any modern government, anywhere. Sure, the West saw it as brutal or sexist - all the usual stuff - but overpopulation ends in collapse, no exceptions. The longer you push it, the bigger the fall. The neoliberal-backing mainstream media - and, to be honest, our societal false narrative - seem incapable/unwilling to address this issue. Here's one of the original authors, talking to a modern commenter.

How did you go with that reading-list?

... remember the howls of protest when Gareth Morgan raised the subject of pussy control .... he was pilloried and lampooned up and down the length of this fair land . .. and that was just cats ....

How much worse for anyone foolish and anti-human enough to suggest state control of births ... a'la China 1978 to recently ....policies which encourage infanticide are disgusting , abhorrent , utterly repugnant . . . PDK is alone on that one ...

Have you not learned that when women are educated, have control of their lives, finances and fertility, they have fewer children, delay reproduction and many bypass the whole process altogether, leading to a falling population.
Let me guess, you are in favour of keeping women barefoot, powerless, uneducated and pregnant lest they choose not to breed enough for your liking.

Please read the thread.
We are talking of different things.
Education and critical thinking are liberating, society is much better as a result.

PDK is advocating population control.
PDK is cheerfully support of Chinas one child policy.

What you are suggesting has nothing to do with the basis of pdk's thinking.

I think all our predictions for this year will be 20 20

. . if the weather's good , we'll watch alot of cricket ..

20 / 20 of course ...

that should distract the masses from the prediction for 2020 ..more heat and bellicose from the climate change deniers on this site

... I never did get an answer to my question : who are " the climate change deniers on this site " to whom you refer ?

I shall thrash them , sir ... I'll give them a solid whipping to within an inch of their sad and sorry lives ... or , sit them down to some tea and lamingtons , and have a jolly robust debate . ..

Your jokes are wearing thin...and will do so thru 2020...another prediction

... still refusing to answer a fair question : you throw the accusation out there ... not me ..

Prediction ...look it up

I predict that you'll not answer a fair minded question as to who these bellicose bloggers are , he ones you accuse of denying climate change , on this site ...

Wait ad see Gummy..wait and see..they seem to have gone quiet so far? However do recall you are a sceptic?

... no ... the Gummster's not a septic ... I reckon climate change is real ... but my take is that it's mostly a natural occurrence , with a little boost from us ...

Nevertheless ... it behooves us to clean up our act , to bequeath a cleaner planet to future generations ...

Too much belief in Lomborg.


It's sceptic, not septic, though that may well be more accurate in respect of your almost total ignorance on the forces behind global warming.

I would love to hear your detailed arguments for 'it's mostly a natural occurrence'. I can't wait to hear you explain away the Keeling Curve, the Stefan-Boltzmann and Wein radiation laws, the earth's albedo and, but what's the point. There's none so blind as those who do not want to see and clearly you just want to take refuge in your right wing blinkers. So sad.

.. I predict that in 2020 we'll continue to see global worming ... and that the loony lefties will continue to shriek and run amok with their tin foil hats on ...

And the sensible folks on the right will continue to take positive steps to reduce mankind's tiny contribution to this natural occurrence ... Trumpy , Boris & their ilk will lead the way ...

A good op-ed on the bollix around predictions

Why It’s So Hard to Forecast the Economy--Normal cyclical patterns have gone missing, and may not be coming back anytime soon

I don't really do predictions but I have some expectations.

RBNZ will start freaking out as mortgage defaults rise again. This will force them to act on the OCR or they will copy unconventional market interference from the Fed (possibly including their new approach).

The US economy will continue to decline due to having so few workers, and the retirees discovering that they cannot maintain their working lifestyle.

Don't worry, the RBNZ is currently going through consultation process to set up a mortgage bond market which could provide much needed liquidity should mortgage defaults rise.

2020 could prove to be a very interesting year. Here's what I would expect (Not really a prediction) give current trends and developments:-

NZ will carry on some old same old usually centered around the housing market and how to be seen as trying to control it. Labour will need to pull another rabbit out of the hat such as a sequel to the Foreign Buyers Ban, if they want to remain in power. Well all know that none of NZ political parties will do any thing to reduce immigration so no point in even suggesting that one.

Australia will push out Scott Morrison due to him being spineless, and their economy will continue to fluctuate wildly.

China will come up with even more innovative ways to control its population in every way, with full rollout of their Social Credit Score System (Perhaps that will involve HK too).

UK; Chances are Boris will push Britain in to leaving the EU without a deal causing the Pound to plummet (again), making it much harder for the UK to sort out deals with the WTO and face large tariffs.

US; Trump will be trumped by his own tax returns when the finally come to the surface.

Globally: Environmental issues will take center stage, lets hope that the rest of the world is listening.

The Economist on the folly of prediction:

Fears in 2018 for the year ahead proved misplaced. Those for 2020 may be, too. But investors should not bank on it. Only 12 times since 1928 has the s&p 500 posted a better return than it did in 2019. Each time, the following year turned out weaker than the one that came before. More ominously, in four returns were negative.

QE & low rates continue to pump heroin into the addicted markets and economies. The wealthy expand their property and share portfolios extending the gap between haves and have nots. Trump is re elected and starts a war with Iran. China gets tough in south china sea, taiwan and HongKong. Asset bubbles wobble, exposing the banking practices once again but nothing of substance is done to remedy. We continue our fat, dumb and happy ways.

NZX50 to gain another ~20% to finish 14,000. Interest rates up 1%. House prices up 10%. Trump to win re-election. If not assassinated by irate iranians first. Coalition of losers to be reelected - just.

I am late to this game, so I will just repeat what I read a couple of day ago.

'2020, It's the year so nice, they've named it twice'.

May it be doubly nice to us all.

Some interesting predictions being made; here is what I suspect 2020 will bring.

NZ hopefully follows the world and cannabis is legalised via the referendum.

OCR unchanged, low inflation stays.

Waikato HPI: +3.5%, Auckland HPI: +1.5%, National HPI: +4.5% - Rental yeilds drying up in many centres.

Election is a lolly-scramble from COL who win again, Greens pick up another seat.

Sounds like another exciting year globally, we may see Trump go another round.

Happy 2020!

Yeah - it's really not that hard...

I stuck to Gubmint Budget predictions last year: the key one was this:

it [the 2019 Budget] will be relatively conservative, so as to placate the masses, but, and more importantly, the fiscal conservatism will keep a warehouse-full of powder dry for full-on Vote Purchase Schemes in the 2020 election-year budget. Or, if the perma-bears hopes and fears come true, ammunition with which to weather the storm.

So, panning the same gravel patch - 2020 Gubmint Budget - here are my predictions:

  1. Vote Purchase Schemes up the wazoo. The 2019 Year of Non-delivery is gonna require massive corrective measures, paid for by the person visible in yer mirror. The PGF is an exemplar: pork for the Chosen few, cronyism thinly disguised as Helping Them Poor Victims, and PR opportunities a-plenty.
  2. Much more borrowing. Now that the Greens have thrown the Fiscal Responsibility rules under the proverbial Unicorn-Fart-Powered-Public-Transport-Conveyance, the sky (and the rating agencies' -er - Ratings) is the limit for all manner of Cool Social Experiments.
  3. No new taxes, but massive increases in existing Fees, Charges, Levies and the like. A current example out for consultation: the Waste Minimisation proposals which will not actually innovate (like waste-to-energy, studiously excluded because Shut Up) but just clip the ticket on existing schemes plus fund a few new boondoggles (see #1) above).
  4. A few new Victim Assistance proposals, to allow the PM the Feelz and Long Face PR opportunities that an election year demands. It's All Aboot the Children. Never mind that other Gubmint activities are in the Victim Creation business - that's a feature, not a bug. Mo' Victims = Mo' Pork Required to soothe their fevered brows and Mo' Gubmint drones to push the munny around, with employment, ticket-clipping and related side benefits.

Might even be enough to buy another term......

I've been overseas travelling for some time so am late to post here.

Very happy with my predictions from last year, aside from my call for shares which was dramatically off. In some cases the outcome was more extreme than I thought (mortgage rates). Happy with my crypto call to - I did expect a climb to $15k or so by the end of 2019, but instead we had a jump to $14k much to early and are now recovering ground (still, BTC is up around 140% from its low in Dec 2018 - not bad). Was bang on in relation to alternative cryptos as well.

My 2020 predictions:

- I see no reasons why house prices should fall back, all fundamentals are getting stronger if anything, but perhaps some money will flow back into Auckland - Auckland +5%, National +6.5%

- Gold to have another great year, Silver will also make a recovery

- NZD will flounder - to around .58c yearly low.

- Despite all the media commentary to the contrary, there will be no war by the USA against anyone but expect Iran to have its own internal problems - perhaps even an uprising;

- Trump to breeze home to a second term without even trying;

- Rents to surge out of control, causing all kinds of outcry - also expect Labour to promise a wide range of even greater crackdowns on land lords which will make the situation even worse (but only due to sentiment, nothing will actually be done) - +8.5% in 2020

- It will be close but Labour / Greens will win the 2020 election - why? Because the middle class property owners will feel very rich indeed and won't want to rock the boat

- Labour / Greens will also bring in a new tax bracket - around 40% for those earning 120k or more (even more of a sting in the tail in contrast to the property elite), but expect some very slightly "block of cheese" tax cuts for the lower brackets - scheduled for 2021;

- Winston to retire from politics before the next election or immediately after, depending on polling. That will be the end of NZ First;

- Euthanasia bill to pass referendum with around 80% of the vote, Cannibis narrowly misses - around 40% of the vote;

- ACT to get 2 MPs, and very close to a third.

- A rent to buy scheme will be announced to replace kiwibuild - will it work? No idea, it will be a year or two off so outside of 2020;

- Bitcoin will have slightly more volatility that last year (especially around the time of the four yearly block halfing), but the final of year balance won't be too far removed from current prices - say 9.5k. I anticipate a low in the 5ks (maybe even high 4ks), and a high around 12k (no more than 16k in extreme circumstances). At the end of the year, nobody will care anymore which is what is needed for another run.

- Altcoins will continue their decline (at least vs BTC) with a BTC dominance in the market of around 77% at some point this year

- Equities will finally start to have a blow off top - with large falls at some point in the year

Comment and criticise welcome, as long as you bring your own predictions!