US jobless levels spike higher again; some stimulus programs run out of funds, Japan makes helicopter drop; Germany starts work return; UST 10yr yield at 0.60%; oil and gold lower; NZ$1 = 59.5 USc; TWI-5 = 65.7

US jobless levels spike higher again; some stimulus programs run out of funds, Japan makes helicopter drop; Germany starts work return; UST 10yr yield at 0.60%; oil and gold lower; NZ$1 = 59.5 USc; TWI-5 = 65.7

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news of some major and some weird economic crisis effects.

First in the US, another +5 mln people applied for unemployment insurance. That brings the four-week total to over +22 mln. Given they had a labour force of 163 mln at the start of March, that translates into an unemployment rate of 18% now, and you probably have to add to it many millions who don't qualify for unemployment benefits. On top of those of course there are millions who have taken pay cuts and reduced hours. The resulting consumer demand shock will be terrible. And after all that, we are overlooking their low participation rate (62.7%) which means they started with at least 19 mln adults who had previously given up on being in their labour force. Taking it all into account, that is a 'real' jobless rate of 26% now. All up, it is ugly. Oh, there's more - workers in the gig economy are uncovered by any of these stats and are also out in the cold.

Official help for American SMEs under an emergency $350 bln program has stopped - because it has committed all the money allocated.

For many individuals, they won't be able to access their stimulus funds paid by cheque, because if they were overdrawn in their account in the emergency, banks are applying the funds to the overdrawn balances.

Another social trend in the US is that climate change deniers are now morphing into Covid-19 deniers. Rallies are being held demanding the economy be reopened "because the risk is overstated". They are part of a broader "Ostrich Alliance" of dictators pretending there is some sort of big international conspiracy over the pandemic. This group includes Brazil, Belarus, Nicaragua and Turkmenistan.

In China, a new report shows the number of job ads recorded a steep drop in the first quarter of 2020, but the figure for the March period wasn’t quite as dire as that for the first two months, indicating a minor recovery across their economy may be underway as the impact of the pandemic eased.

Japan is disbursing NZ$1500 to everyone to assist with the economic effects of the economic slowdown, the latest country to deploy helicopter money.

In Germany, factories there are starting to resume production as their virus control measures seem to be successful. There is also a partial opening of shops and schools too.

In Australia, their March jobless numbers rose marginally in advance of the pandemic slowdown. And in a shameful move, the Crown Casino group have paid a huge NZ$215 mln dividend to shareholders and then left the taxpayer to foot the bill for the 11,500 staff it has laid off. That dividend is equivalent to NZ$20,000 per laid-off employee.

Meanwhile in equity markets, the S&P500 is little-changed today, and similar results were posted in Europe and Asia earlier. 

Worldwide, the latest compilation of Covid-19 data is here. The global tally is now 2,101,200 and up +85,000 this time yesterday which is a faster rising tide. Now, 31% of all cases globally are in the US and they are up +28,000 since yesterday to 641,200. This is an unchanged level of increase. The level of US cases that have recovered is unchanged at 8%. Australia's infections and deaths have stalled at 6400. Their recovery rate is marginally higher at 36%. But there are serious doubts about the veracity of Australia's reported data.

Global deaths now exceed 141,000, 22% of them in the US, a rise, and 51% of them in the four core European countries - Spain, UK, Italy and France, a fall.

There are now 1401 Covid-19 cases identified in New Zealand, with another +15 new cases yesterday and less than the +20 increase the day before. The number of clusters is still at 16. Nine people have died here now, unchanged. There are now 12 people in hospital with the disease, with three in ICU. Our recovery rate is now up to 55% and rising quickly.

In money markets, the UST 10yr yield has fallen again, this time by another -3 bps to just 0.60%. Their 2-10 curve is flatter today at +41 bps. Their 1-5 curve is little-changed at +17 bps, and their 3m-10yr curve is also unchanged at +51 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is now at 0.81% and down marginally overnight. The China Govt 10yr is at 2.53% and down -2 bps overnight. The NZ Govt 10 yr yield is lower too, down -7 bps to 0.94% in international trading.

Gold has moved back down again, down another -US$12 to US$1,709/oz.

US oil prices are a softer again today and now under US$20/bbl. The Brent benchmark has dropped too, to under US$27.50/bbl. 

The Kiwi dollar will open almost -½c lower at 59.5 USc. On the cross rates we are lower too at 94.5 AUc, while against the euro we are soft at 54.8 euro cents. That means the TWI-5 will start today at 65.7.

Bitcoin is now at US$7,015, up +3.2% from this time yesterday. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

Our exchange rate chart is here.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

197 Comments

The US is proposing a form of UBI giving each person $2000 per month. For context, that's $400B a MONTH adding 5% to the Fed's balance sheet each month. Once they start they will not be able to stop.

Up To $3.4 Billion In Stimulus Money Could Go To Dead People
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/34-billion-stimulus-money-could-go-d...

Stopping could be a matter of degree.
$2000 this month, $,1800 next, $1,600 the one after that down to $0.
At some stage, the recipient will take a job - even at $1 per hour.
Anyone who thinks Deflation isn't on the near horizon isn't looking. And....it's going to be far deeper than any of us can imagine.
Buy shares; buy assets of any kind, and see what happens! Gravity ALWAYS eventually takes hold - even in space!

Do you mean inflation?

Stagflation maybe. Giving out money like its going mouldy, but high unemployment and insecurity.

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Nothing like berating economics as dogma and then linking a post on economics made by a guy who has, of all things, a theology degree.
Seriously, PDK, you get more and more ironic by the day.

I especially like his profound statement "The price of a great many assets will crash, out of proportion to the decline in demand."
Well, duh, name any asset that is perfectly unit elastic.

so you are saying hes right then?

Sure, he's right.
But the way he writes it makes it sound as if this is somehow unexpected.

How about deflation (of consumer goods) for say 6 months, then persistent inflation (of everything) for 3 years, then deflation (of realestate and financial assets) as interest rates rise. No doubt there will be an international banking crisis, and credit freeze at some point. Not sure how that will affect holders of cash vs assets. I think what you want to be holding now is a pile of unencumbered assets.

"..climate change deniers..."
Pitchforks out for those people eh?

The re-engineering of social consensus is back and more forceful than ever!

Burn those climate change deniers at the stake!

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And of course, anyone who would dare question what the Govt. are doing must also be by default, against them on every other issue as well.

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I have been expecting the appearance of the slur "Covid-19 denier" for some time to appear in the media and I'm disappointed that the first instance I have seen has been on this site. I suppose the next claim will be that the "science is settled" and "97% per cent of epidemiologists agree on something or other"....
Of course, what the Covid-19 debate has shown very clearly is that epidemiologists around the world can't agree on the severity of the pandemic or how to deal with it.
And, as in the climate change debate, models will throw up all sorts of speculative numbers. In NZ's case, predictions of deaths have ranged from 8000-80,000...

"Another social trend in the US is that climate change deniers are now morphing into Covid-19 deniers." - We have seen some prime examples of that here on this very forum.
It happens when someone's so delusional about their own abilities that they value their own 'research' on Facebook and random contheo sites over the well documented and peer reviewed work of thousands of actual experts.

Or maybe it's born out of the fact that the MSM is so unreliable and biased that many have lost total faith in the experts?

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See the teachers are moaning about going back to work. Supermarket workers, medical staff and other essential workers have done their bit guys, now it’s time do yours, and do what you’re paid for. Isn’t 13 weeks paid leave and a guaranteed job enough for you?
Really, what terrible PR for a feather bedded profession.

Steady on old chap, It is in response to the supercilious way the media reported their role as being baby sitters for the essential workers.

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We’ve all got to do our bit. Asking them to be babysitters, which is the teachers‘ own description, is fine given the real economic pain so many are going through. ‘Babysitting’ will allow many people to get back to work, save their jobs, feed their families. No apologies, sorry.

Agree. As an ex-Decile 1 teacher schools do need to re-open. Many of these students will be living in terrible conditions and school will be their 'safe' place in more ways than one. Distance learning will continue and now some students will be able to do this with free and easy access to devices/resources/materials that are currently sitting idle. Parents who can keep their children at home will.

Sending kids back to school is very low risk for the the children. However, we should not be sending back teachers over 60 or anyone with immuno risk - I assume this is in the workplace risk plan. I would doubt Worksafe would allow >60 years back to school.

Death stats from C19 in Italy to 9th April.
0-9 years 1 death
<30 years 8 deaths
<40 44
<50 197
<60 835
https://www.epicentro.iss.it/coronavirus/bollettino/Bollettino-sorveglia...
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1106372/coronavirus-death-rate-by-ag...

"I would doubt Worksafe would allow >60 years back to school."

That's not the role of Worksafe to make that decision, nor how they work.

It depends on the level of risk involved and what mitigations are possible. In places that have had very few cases such as the west coast (5 total), the risk is lower than in other places that have had many cases (Auckland). What works for a West Coast school in terms of mitigation may not work in an Auckland school.

The whole point of our health and safety legislation is that it is NOT one rule for everyone, one size fits all. Instead workplaces are supposed to assess the risks that APPLY TO THEM and take all Reasonably Practicable measures to eliminate, isolate or mitigate them with the understanding that when undertaking work risks always exist and to eliminate risks entirely would mean eliminating the work, which in most cases will not be Reasonably Practicable.

THANKS Lanth - note I referred to a "workplace risk plan" not an industry risk plan. Calm those bolds!

"A systematic review by Russell Viner and colleagues, published on April 6, assessed findings from 16 studies looking at the effects of school closures on coronavirus outbreaks in China, Hong Kong, and Singapore. They found limited benefit on slowing the spread of the virus, and the authors stress that closures must be considered within the wider context of loss of essential workers due to childcare demands, restrictions in learning, socialising, and physical activity for pupils, and the substantial risks to the most vulnerable children, including those in low-income settings. Following school closures amidst the west African Ebola epidemic, rates of child labour, neglect, sexual abuse, and adolescent pregnancies spiked, and many children never returned to school."
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30105-X/fulltext

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I'm surprised they don't just go on strike again.

Don't give them any ideas.

Education is a key factor in lifting people out of poverty. Teachers need to be applauded.

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Hold on pal - teachers are already working - they’re practicing the safe non face to face business model that is now being demanded of other businesses should the alert level go to 3. Now however they are being asked to continue this but also go on site and engage with young kids from multitudes of bubbles. Asked to do this without PPE of any kind and with clients (kids) who will not socially distance because they’re young and will inevitably forget.
If social distancing is still important at level 3 then this hybrid schooling makes a mockery of it.
Maybe why teachers are expressing concern?

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True, It has always been the flaw with the Covid levels.

Schools are the most likely place community transmission will occur - as you say kids will be kids.

If schools are back then in theory everyone is. So either we stay in Lockdown, or we open up. No point half-arsing it, although that is the Govt's preferred method of delivery.

Like I said in earlier post...extend the school year to the end of Jan, and catch up then. All businesses are adapting to this, education should be no different. Why the government is not looking at this, is beyond me. Forget about the normal xmas shutdown, this year is not normal so do something different. Having parents who have to try work from home and get kids educated at same time is just plan dumb.

At least your idea would be in keeping with alert level protocols. Presumably by summer the country would be in alert level 1 or 2 so it would be fair and reasonable to have schools open then for face to face learning - to offset closure and online learning earlier in the year. The current proposed model flies in the face of the alert level methodology - what is the point of protecting bubbles if the kids from these bubbles then mix and match at school..sounds utterly ridiculous to me.

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Agreed, I can send my kids to school and burst 30 plus bubbles but they cannot go to the hairdressers and burst one. Doesn't make sense.

one of the biggest clusters started in a city school 85 people, did they not learn from the measles outbreak, schools are a incubator for spreading virus.
in saying that the small country schools yes you could open as the numbers are small and much easier to control,
so they should work on a framework on which can open and which cant a bit like business

That was a decile 10 school with the outbreak. Nobody died. The parents all have a bit of money, and/or care about their kids and their health, and as a result, statistically, they will work their way through the infection. On a related note, get the kids who come from decile 1, bad decisionmaking, uncaring, no educational stuff, bad attitude homes back to school. A safe place, a feed, and some sort of chance. If they are the only ones back, they may be able to socially space as well.

Yes it does make sense, not saying I agree with it, but opening up schools will be a litmus test to see if community transmission will happen, with the least amount of risk.

It makes sense to open up the schools first than say the retirement villages or the hairdressers with their older clientele.

Just think of the kids as the best guinea pigs to use.

But those kids go home to their own bubbles that contain every demographic of ethnicity, age, medical condition etc etc - so it's not really about the kids at all. In fact most research I've encountered seems to conclude that kids are most likely to be asymptomatic carriers of the disease...this would make schools a community transmission central body.

Being children, they shouldn't, in general, be going back to school or back home in care to the cohort that are most vulnerable. And yes treat them all as asymptomatic.

And we are not talking all children, just those that fit the lowest risk to all groups, so if they come back home from school to stay with grandparents, don't send them in the first place.

We need to come out of this slowly, testing the waters as we go.

teachers get paid, by the way , for 25 hours a week.
Their ACTUAL hours are abut 45 hours a week, which is not included in pay.
They are expected to cover lunch break and crossing road time, as well as attend weekend and eve events, all included.
They work minimum of 2-4 hours extra a day doing planning, unpaid.
Clearly you know nothing about it.

whatever the payslips might say, everyone in the profession well understands what it is they actually have to do to get their pay, and they are free to leave to do something easier at any time.

I agree with you Mike. But when someone's so passionate about hating teachers, you can't convince them otherwise with logic.

Whatever someone is passionately hateful about, they will be incapable of logic or rationality. There's no arguing with it.

That's a bit rich from a guy who spends his morning commenting on forums.

While the move to level 3 is being mulled has anybody thought about quantifying NZ’s situation by separating out the CV19 cases that actually involve rest homes & their residents. One assumes all of those are now identified, under control and any transmission contained within. That I would wager would more than halve the number of clusters & certainly mortalities for the rest of NZ and is that not then in truth the real size of the problem we have at present in the wider community.

I would far rather look at the chaos unfolding in countries that have done little. Next to watch, Brazil, where Bolsonaro has fired his chief MO as he (Bolsonaro) thinks the economy is more important than deaths from the virus.

Aye - there are some here who think that way too. This is the showdown between blind pursuit of money, and caring for real people.

How that fits into the bigger 5-6 billlion overshot global population problem, is an interesting question. Ultimately, both the 'save everyone' and the 'just get on with consuming, quick' brigades are wrong. Interesting times......

That’s the core issue here. Decency versus greed. But we need the greedy so we can tax them to pay for decency.

the UK has extended their lockdown for another three weeks, i hope they take what is happening around the world before we come out.
my feeling is we have not done enough community testing to be sure at this stage, the results from yesterday Queenstown pak n save test will be a clue as too are they missing people

Yes 100% agree.

Over this lockdown period, we should have been doing systematic random testing within the community.

According to the PM we have the capacity to do that.

And you would think they would at least want to know the results of the Qtn testing before they lift or not the present lockdown.

She has said a lot of stuff including the testing and PPE.
Yet the truth at times appears to be a bit different.
Pretty much every day there's been a spare 1000 tests available, why weren't they testing randomly with those????

UK lockdown is way less locked down than ours though. Looser than level3. They are flying in migrant workers from Romania to pick fruit for example.

Quite the opposite. It’s being blind to the immediate impact vs the medium to long term impact.
It’s easy to measure the human toll of the virus now, will you in your caring nature pursue the longer term toll (and announce it as you are now) on the human race because of the medieval approach to ‘eliminating’ the virus that’s been ordered by governments?
I would argue your short sighted.

Not 1 person in the Rio favellas has socially isolated, I am willing to bet. Physically impossible. Economically impossible.

Sorry mate but it appears those most likely to get it are least likely to be tested, because GPs do most of the referring for testing and older people, esp in care homes, are NOT presenting. Hence, reported cases bound to be under stated and deaths contributed to or caused by CV19, also.

Theoretically we could arrive at a situation, perhaps reasonably soon, that the active cases are virtually all located in rest homes. That certainly is where the majority of clusters are, and sadly for obvious reasons, the mortalities too. That suggests then, if all the rest homes had been quarantined at a much earlier stage, such as the proactive Radius group did off their own bat, NZ would have had less than half the number of clusters and mortalities that have been recorded and a whole lot less fuss accordingly.

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Well the 4 ml forecast for last night never happened and the 5ml forecast for today has gone too. Drafting lambs today so will get better info on what's happening but I am expecting sharp price falls.
Thats because Im expecting demand to get a hiding. Pounded into the ground and not much the RB can do about it.

Around here like most provinces the banks have been funding certain corporates and large farmers to buy all the neighbours up. It's got so bad that nearly all the farms coming onto market are sold to these entities, %100 of the larger properties. The game is rigged so they can keep borrowing and keep buying keep property prices up, now it's got to the stage almost all the local farmers know it's rigged. This is going to have very negative consequences for our society. Do people know that an Austrian woman has bought 360,000 stock units North of Gisborne ? Stk unit is meant to be one ewe. One corporate has over 40 farms around here another 35, I could go on.

Just like housing. The RB needs to stop being complicit in this fraud, halving interest rates 5x has not created positive outcomes, Its shut young farmers out, Its creating resentment and ill will in the local population.
Hell could be around the corner if we get unemployment rates like USA. Think of the effect on demand and then civil unrest if the RB keeps protecting the rich guys.

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/04/16/week-4-of-u-s-labor-market-collapse-un...

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I wish I could wave a magic wand and make problems for you, and those in your position, disappear.
Rain forecast for Monday in your neck of the woods. Finger crossed.
We know the answers - you've outlined them above, and yet 'we' look the other way because change is all too hard.
"Things" will change - they have to.

11
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So the population will switch to low grade high starch foods instead of getting a decent bit of protein. The high starch low GI diet will play havoc with the insulin levels. We know from Ginganinga's comments that insulin sensitivity is a risk factor for the immune system and vulnerability to Covid-19 progressing to the stage 2 lung infection.

This is why lockdown ultimately won't work, no one can think enough moves ahead. Government certainly can't, and to be where we are shows they haven't. Disease is a limits to growth issue and should be seen as such. Lockdown isn't going to solve the underlying progression of vulnerability to diseases. Disease is part of the new normal, it is a trend.

Meanwhile we give up our rights to freedom for a fallacy. It is a damn good propaganda job that is for sure.

We're does protein come from?

For quite a few families harvested from wild pig, deer and goat populations. Not allowed at the moment.

'quite a few'? Like 0.0000000001% of the population?

Obviously you don't live in the Eastern BoP amongst many other areas. Road I live on the majority of the meat in the freezers will be wild venison and pork.

You've obviously never ventured outside of central Wellington lol

The Rumour File

AndrewJ: "Where is here? Where banks are funding certain corporates and large farmers. Nearly all farms coming onto market are sold to these entities, %100 of the larger properties"

You should name names otherwise it's scaremongering
Which Banks. Which Corporates? Which large farmers? Who?

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But this buying up is not a recent thing Andrew. The lack of a CGT, Land Tax and other disincentive have made this business as usual forever. It is a bit rough for farmers to whinge about this now when they have rallied against political parties who have suggested the above options over the last 50 years or so. Options that are SOP in many other equitable countries. Suck it up, you reap what you sow.

20
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No farmers don't have a voice not the average one. Beef and Lamb got taken over by big guys , there is no one who represents small to medium family farms.
This world where less and less people own more and more has very ugly outcomes, every time in a culture it's been allowed to happen, it's let to ugly/violent outcomes.

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Have you heard of a quaint custom they have in NZ called elections. ?
Time for the cockies to start thinking of options other than National.

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thats already happened, National is no longer seen as pro farming. I think almost all parties are AKL centric.

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I'd disagree on that Andrew. I've never been in a farming group where there's been anything but support for blue and derogatory comments about ALL other parties. It's quite depressing to hear at times to hear such narrow thinking. FF have always supported being able to sell to who ever they damn well like.

I live in a fairly mixed group, most are moving to ACT. That's just the guys I hang out with.

That's like moving to the aft deck on the Titanic, AJ.

Understandable but short-term and doomed.

Tell them to get a hold of the OrganicsNZ article I did last year (March, I think) - called The Coming Exodus. Food production is about to undergo the biggest change we have ever seen, is my bet. More workers per acre, as less fossil energy (and indirect input) is applied. Firstly close to cities, then spreading.

Sounds like you're describing a future with more hoes. Never a bad thing

It could be part of those 'shovel ready' projects they are talking about.

Stoop labour - exactly the sort of thing the unions organised to climb out of - oh - about 90 years ago....

Courtesy of fossil energy being applied to food production.

A one-off event.

Causation, Waymad, and it does not include wish-lists, or at least, if it does they're entirely coincidental.

12
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Much to be said for David Seymour I think. He looks about 10 years old but is intelligent and asks hard questions. Maybe his day will come.

He does walk the talk. Surprise may indeed come at election time

I think his day is very close. We need the current lot to drive us deeper first.

I was impressed by him when they had Adrian Orr interviewed by the Epidemic Response panel. He was the only person to ask where the money was coming from, what happens when this is over, how does it unwind etc. Everyone else was whispering sweet nothings in Orr's ear and asking when we could have negative interest rates.

WOW out of the pot into the fire.
Have you guys read acts policies or been to a meeting with the filthy slimy little pr*ck?

He would sell NZ tomorrow and not even blink.
The friends are about the firearms law, but there is way more at stake.

No , I do not think I have met you .

Invercargill. And not to long ago.

11
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I'm hearing of young farmers leaving National next election because National saying they will allow offshore buyers back in to the market. The young farmers were starting to believe that they had a chance of farm ownership, but with foreign buyers now coming back in to the market, under National, that dream has firmly being blown.

11
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FF have always supported National.

Remember the "impromptu" rally against JA in her home town prior to the last election. Embarrassing, sheep like IQ.

Double Agriculture by 2025, indeed.

Disagree most farmers I have met are National for life. Recently in CHCH I brought up Helens Clarke name in conversation (Selling Skyhawks), and was told firmly "that name is not mentioned around here"?

I think there is a legacy of the old National party in the fog of farmers minds, the party has moved on but the pretence still gets votes.

Yep.
Ex Fil was a cockie, took great pleasure in winding him up about being a Nat voter when cockies generally do best under a labour govt. And even he admitted it was so (eventually)

11
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I was recently at a field day where a FF Regional Chairperson introduced themselves, immediately assumed I was a National Party follower and proceeded to bash all other political parties. I joined FF to represent me as a farmer NOT predetermine my political viewpoint. It pissed me off.

"Beef and Lamb got taken over by big guys , there is no one who represents small to medium family farms."

Go and make yourself a big family then :-)

19
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I already have five children, i will go talk to wife.

Beef and Lamb moved to votes counted by amount of stock units, away from farm by farm having same vote.

I looked at a dairy goats co-op in Hamilton a while back. They were after farms around 40ha, and limited the number of bigger farms for this reason - trying to make sure everyone gets heard.

Andrewj
I lovethat first line!
KeithW

HI Keith,

Agent told me they are talking a dollar a Kg off the lamb schedule. I think it's about $6.80 at the moment. Nothing fattens lambs like a falling schedule and a Nor-wester. Got into the ram lambs as they are getting some unpleasant habits and good enough to go. Prime market is really soft, Heifers at $2.40 a kg Live weight has me thinking, just need some rain first.

You can't just summon children up, takes a lot of planning and sweat and that's just my end.

I bet of all the smooth talk you have said to the wife, none of them have started with the line, 'Masher said....'. Well I hope not.

No I'm not going to do that, im fighting the ideology not the individuals involved. ' This is a new development over the past ten years, big properties have been created by Very wealthy people purchasing multiple farms.

you see Iconoclast, Belle knows.

AJ (and KW if ears are on?), is it time for some sort of Trust-Busting wrt to the corporatisation of farms? Not that I'd - er - Trust ComCom to undertake it.....

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Too many of these large outfits are charities. They pay no tax so have no problem extending their enormous land holdings. We have a religious bunch and Maori corporations here in the South Waikato.

12
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They are getting big enough to consume all that's left. The 'free market' is the playground of rent seekers. Those big guys get premiums when they sell and rebates when they buy and the cost is borne by the rest of us.

No weetbix today then? Agree they should all pay tax.

I see the same model with some other businesses, e.g. childcare. A charitable trust parent org holds all the (for profit) childcare centres, and the real business is buying and holding of land. Absence of land tax makes it a great option.

A hell of an irony in Maori finding a way to buy back productive land. Somehow the local ruling elite missed the lesson of how bad things can go when you lose all your control to another faceless entity from overseas.

When we get too many big corporate farms,the voters just put in a government who will take the farms off them and redistribute. It has been done a few times before in New Zealand. Why not again?

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AndrewJ you need your own rural report post to the site each morning (so it doesn't get lost in the volume). David?? Always interesting stuff and being from the coal face has much credibility.

12
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Sounds like young farmers and young urban folk have more in common than has often been highlighted in discussions. Both groups getting sacrificed on the alter of making certain demographics rich and keeping them rich, and in selling off NZ's land to (often) foreign ownership while expecting young Kiwis to pay for the ongoing lifestyles of older folk.

They have more in common than the media would let on

The same with turners and Growers. They are a German company buying up large arround NZ and locking suppermarkets into contracts forcing the smaller producer out and then they buy up that land.
$3.99 for 2nd grade apple today at packnsave when a standard grower wouldn't have got 30c a kg for them at the gate.

So we have Ashley Bloomfield standing up and answering media questions.
How about we get the head of the Overseas Investment Office doing the same.

Send in the troops?

No. Send in the dispossessed proletariat with their pitchforks. Remember that these big corporates are very few in actual numbers. They rely on the institutions that the common people's taxes pay for to keep them up, and the common people down. All that has to be done is to have these institutions turn a blind eye to bad things being done to big corporate people. It is already being done in South Africa to the white farmers, and is working quite well. A bad example possibly, but the principle applies.

I remember studying the Asian Tiger economies at Vic Uni about 20 dd years ago, the starting point of 'miracle' for the 2 non-city states was land reform to break up the feudal rural land use. At the time, in NZ, what they ended up with was pretty similar to what I imagined at the time was NZ Owner occupied farming landscape. 23 years later, we look like feudal Korea .....

https://landportal.org/blog-post/2017/04/how-land-reform-shaped-asia%E2%...

Exactly. Remember the rich American who said, "Take all the money off the rich people and give it to the poor people and then give us 5 years." So land reform has to be an ongoing thing, and checked on, every generation or 2 to see who has to much, and needs it to be redistributed. It is not rocket science. We can use ballots etc, as has been done several times in the past in New Zealand.

Man that US data is shocking imagine another 2 months what it would be. I’ve been ramming on about FOMO and stock price increases that make no sense and I’m glad a fund manager - Matt Goodson has backed a bit of what I’ve been saying in his herald summary article. The NZ stocks based on earnings are actually more expensive now then they were at record highs!

This might interest you, discussion on the irrationality and FOMO in the stock market (but equally applicable to other markets) https://www.forbes.com/sites/hershshefrin/2020/04/10/great-depression-ec...

With the price of brent crude still dropping why are the petrol companies in Whanganui still charging over $1.91 per litre for 91 grade petrol?

I would be interested to see what other cities prices are at present.

Turnover collapsed and they are trying to eke out a living on that?
I haven't been near Mobil for weeks!

Napier Caltex, $1.74 for 91

Allied Napier - $1.75 for 95 & $1.63 for 91.

watchman - download the 'Gaspy' app onto your phone and you can check any petty station price in the country.

NPD CHCH 1.69 and in Brisbane 99.9.
I think price is still jacked up for so called discount schemes and fair price would be approx 1.59

I'd be very happy to see the end of all the discount scams oops i mean schemes.

193.7 in Auckland’s inner city bays. I normally buy 98. All car tanks are full and only one is travelling to the Supermarket so they must be hurting as we haven’t spent on fuel since pre lockdown and may not have to fill again until June or July. When this is over we will run the modern cars on 95.

I used to like topping up in Whanganui when up that way it used to be one of the cheapest areas as well as Levin.

So far in our household we've spent approx $500 less in petrol than we normally would commuting. As an aside I always schedule my fuel stops to avoid Whanganui on road trips. I've no idea why they are so much more expensive than <100km either side.

Just remember that energy underwrites money, no exceptions. All else is held bets waiting to be spent on future energy.

So if there is an oversupply, this far past Peak conventional oil (2005/6) and probably 2 years past Peak all-sources oil, it tells you that work isn't being done. Which tells you the based-on-consumption 'economy' must be tanking. The problem is that it was tanking (increasing debt, delayed maintenance, resource depletion, pollution) already, this has just nudged it over a cliff. If it were in good health, the 'price' of oil would be north of $100 US/barrel. The problem is that with such a price, the economy crashes. It's the ultimate Catch-22, yet so few seem to understand the problem. We've been injecting more and more debt into the widening gap - while peddling ourselves porkies about 'cheaper petrol' and 'GDP growth'.

So how does something like rare art work appreciate in monetary terms?
Two paintings, same amount of time to create by two artists who consume equal amounts of resource in their life. Yet one piece might be valued at 100 tokens and yet somehow the other is valued at 1,000,000 tokens.

Veblen good

I would go further and ask: How does whatever currency you choose to purchase that painting derive it's intrinsic value? I'm sure the answers to both are linked.

Nice one. Let PDK chew on that ..

Or any sort of Intellectual property. The old joke about software was that the input costs for something worth a million dollars in sales, was a peanut-butter and jelly sandwich and 10 cans of Jolt Cola.... Plus 'energy' comes in seven accessible forms: FF, chemical (batteries), geothermal, perched water, solar, wind and nuclear.....

Read Martin Armstrong banging on about the $US. He has been saying for years, it is not about the amount, it is the desirability. Art is the same. Perception. P.R. Lies. All that stuff is what drives prices of everything.

No need to chew - it's effing obvious.

If you are hungry, last meal three days ago, and own the painting, what's it worth?

One meal, is the answer. If you can find a buyer. That painting has no 'value' at all in energy/resource terms. Just happened that some folk, during a time of energy-surplus above needed food-production (always the crucial margin) chose to desire things over and above necessities. But in comparison to necessities, those things are worth diddly-squat.

But until such time as both paintings are valued equal, the owner of one could trade their painting for lets say 50,000 barrels of oil, the other only 2.

It is all in the marketing.

I have been thinking about setting up a couple of Zs Tank Share apps and filling with the max 1000 litres when I think prices are at bottom any one else thinking about that as a good hedge.

:)

We produced art well before the neolithic revolution, before we were even homosapien. Well before there was ever any surplus of anything and before there was anything that could be thought of as money. We also had status symbols (probably jewellery made of shells being the first).

During the paleolithic, we were clearly confined in terms of population and productivity to within what we could hunt and gather. We had some technology to improve hunting outcomes, but we're not the only species to do that. And none of that lack of surplus stopped us valuing art or status symbols. The oldest structure yet found (Gobekli Tepe) is a temple. Again, built before the neolithic revolution and before any conceivable food surplus. Human brains finds patterns, meanings, use metaphor, myth and narrative. Try looking at the neurological research on the use of analogy and metaphor and how the brain lights up with any prompting to symbolic, mythic or narrative ideas! History is absolutely littered with stories of people who have died for a belief. Value is most commonly a belief, rather than something physical and rational. And there have been many who have died for their art.

While I agree with PDK that our current debt fuelled finance system has been hugely propelled by population growth, which has certainly been boosted by access to oil. It is not only that. Human technology has always also led to periods of population growth and recently improvements in birth, infant mortality and life span have also been huge factors. There have been population booms across all of history, usually because of a technological advancement, increasing our utilisation of resources. We could still be an industrialised world without oil, coal or gas if we can advance the technology of renewable energy.

Not to be surprise if we reach a point where even certain governments are not able to meet their fiscal measures or have to trim it down.

Many have not realized the seriousness of the situation - leading to carnage and are treating it as normal slowdown/recession but is it Normal Recession???

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AUD NZD showing markets prefer Australia for less damage to the economy.
Markets have clicked that NZ will be left in a bubble while Australia can move forward without without relying on a vaccine that may never happen and rebuild much faster.
Jacinda seems to have a mentality that she will not stop listening to her which means we could go level 3 next week and then back to 4 at any moment which is not good for NZ longterm and now even shortterm.

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The articles are just starting to come from the media on the long term damage this crusade is going to have on people and society. Feel sorry for those social services/mental health sector who will be unfunded and under resourced to cope with the influx after these Lock-downs.

We chose to indulge ourselves short-term. To do so, we cut all capacitance/buffering in the system. Thus any event was going to see services stretched. The Woodhouse years will be written up in history as a failure, as will most of the corporatise-the-public-service initiatives since 1984.

Well duh. Obvious weeks ago even before we entered lockdown that there would be massive social and economic consequences. And different sorts of health consequences.

Yep, markets indeed have clicked. Recently the NZD/AUD cross rate was favourable to kiwis which also coincided with the ASX200 being near its latest low. A window of opportunity as they say.

And the substantive difference between L4 and new L3 is?

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My take on L3.999
Schools are back, but not back, but back, but maybe not, but kind-of, yes, no, ummmmm.
You can expand your bubble, but not really, but if you have too, but try not too, but OK you can, but not really.

But seriously the only main differences I can see are:
You can make a solitary one-way trip between regions to return home.
Any/all online shopping is back.

you forgot takeaways!

Our third largest export earner is allowed to work again. Why a fully mechanised industry was stopped in the first place is a mystery.

I dont get it. L3 on the way out is way to tough. Retail should be able to open, social distance, limit numbers in shop etc. Look at the aussie for guidance. The current level 3 will have dire consequence for too many businesses.

C'mon.
Builders can start up again. As this constitutes 110% of NZ we are saved. Hooray.
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/121053698/coronavirus-updated-level-3-cov...

The difference between L3 & L4 .... L3 is unenforceable confusion where we will be reliant on individual citizen common sense, goodwill and community self regulation. The socialist instinct to micro manage behaviour will be forced into retreat.

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You forgot to add Swedish PM Lofven to the "Ostrich Alliance". Swedes of course are famous for their vicious totalitarianism.
Wait until we see rising rates of deaths of despair, non-Covid medical problems (hospitals are close to shut for those unlucky to a have a non-media worthy health problem), alcoholism, and drug addiction. History might look back on the dictators as the humane ones. By the way, could have sworn Bolsonaro was democratically elected. Poor research?

....and how's Lofven's little experiment working out?

Norway 5.3m pop. 152 deaths
Finland 5.5m pop. 75 deaths
NZ 5m pop. 9 deaths
Sweden 10.2m pop. 1333 deaths

You're just making up statistics now.
Oh no wait.

did anyone see where American airlines are flying less people in a month than they used to do in a day.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/airlines-plunge-after-united-seesessen...

Are real estate agents part of the ostrich alliance?

Any links out there about Queenstown property prices? How are they getting on?

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Tons property being dumped on TradeMe - especially Auckland and Otago, particularly Cromwell. Tons sections being dumped. Price reductions of $150K in Auckland screaming for cash sales now.

Didn't get sense of regions suffering and needing to dump stock, other than one enthusiastic punter selling an entire street of 10 houses... in Westport.

Could get ugly though.

Diddums

At present only the ones that are seeing what is coming and are willing to take a bit of a hit now rather than a kicking later.

Those 10 houses in Westport are still all on one title?

https://www.trademe.co.nz/property/residential-property-for-sale/auction...

Ex company houses from the closed down cement works. They say a shortage of rentals in Westport, there is a reason for that. Too many dropkick tenants so landlords exit the business. And no capital gains.

My Queenstown property has gone up 26% in asking price since coronavirus started. Apparently others have gone down a bit.

.

U.S. Stocks on Brink of Record Versus World While Virus Rages

The U.S. might lead the globe in coronavirus infections, but that’s done little to dent its leadership in the financial world.

Investors are flocking to their “America First” playbook, belying the worst plunge in industrial production since 1946, the historic slump in retail sales and a 5 million surge in the jobless total.

The MSCI USA Index is trading near a record two-decade high versus the rest of the world. For the first time ever, the Nasdaq 100 is more valuable than the European benchmark. Emerging-market shares are the cheapest versus the S&P 500 since 2008.

Thank the famed resilience of tech giants, the mercifully low weighting of cyclical sectors in U.S. stock indexes and the biggest Federal Reserve put in history. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is among those telling rich clients to hide in American shares as the global downturn takes hold.

Lest we forget

Do stock offerings whilst their shares are artificially high? Great idea!
Sell whatever you have, when you can, when the price is high. Or to put it another way...
"Borrow while you can, and don't spend it! Because tomorrow, you may not be able to borrow...."

Due to how we have positioned ourselves during the past decade, the country who can take us out from the deep hole is China. Ironically, they are the ones pushing us in the hole in the first place. It's ugly, but we have to hope China can put things together and recover asap.

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" the country who can take us out from the deep hole is China .."

Nope
They just arrived late to the party and helped the whole world out of the hole from 2000 - 2020 by crediting up and hammering their (cheap) domestic coal supply….
Now they are maxed out too

Of course, the star of the party will change from time to time. Tho I simply can't see an alternative of China in a short-run (let's say in the next 2 to 3 years) in term of the following: 1. Huge demand for NZ primary industry products (meat, dairy etc.) 2. A large number of inbound tourists with the ability to spend cash here in NZ (e.g. casinos) 3. Willingness and ability to inject capital into the properties market. Again, it is all because of how we positioned ourselves.

You’re right. No alternative in the short term. Tourism, international education could all restart between certain countries, with strict entry point checks and a period of isolation in the many empty hotels we’d have otherwise. I think severe at the stage where we need to focus on specific problems rather apply blanket responses. Micro manage, if you like.

"Huge demand for NZ primary industry products …

This isn't the same as ability to pay for … (at a price level that doesn't drive you under..)

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I find it curious the TOTAL silence from the Greens re covid and the economy

This should be a Green party bonanza … promote lower consumption / pollution / change peoples thinking to lower environmental impact / focus local / essential consumption only etc etc

Underneath it all they were never really Greenies at all

Hasn't been complete silence from them and their coterie... they were banging on about how a proposed covid-19 building recovery could exacerbate emissions, climate change... yawn.

I missed the memo about signing up to that particular trendy religious cult.

I beg to differ. COVID is but the entree and the main courses will be served as this decade progresses. Have you not observed the entropic swell of events of late. What happens when the bushfires coincide with Covid. What happens when this years drought becomes the regular summer/autumn. How long do we keep calling a 100 year flood a 100 year flood when it happens biannually. I would say the Greens are the ones who are prepared to front up to what's coming while the majority cling to the mentality of BAU.

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They still want to kneecap the dairy industry. Drilling holes in the bottom of our lifeboat if a metaphor is needed.

I dont know, Fonterra has being doing a pretty good job knee-capping itself of late

The dairy industry is a process of turning fossil fuels (and derived feedstock) into bank-held digits, while emitting all manner of biosphere-degrading emanations. Ultimately, if continued, the process leaves a certain species without any remaining habitat.

Wonder which arrogant/ignorant species that might be?

Actually it leaves many many NZ native species without any remaining habitat... but the arrogant/ignorant one you refer to doesn't deem those species important. Except for whitebait, because there's good money in it. Until they go extinct, which is imminent. But why would anyone let a good 'bait season go to waste, right?

Yep - I regard Galaxiids as part of that biosphere, and yep, they're being degraded.

But it's my right! My right to fish/drive/fly/consume......

Even the rent-a-protesters are out of work lol

Greens were blathering on last week about wanting to widen footpaths in an insanely expensive totally useless and regressive move to foul up traffic more and push people into plague-infested public transport. They are still living in 2019.

Yes, the greens are currently off the pace.

But they are at the end of the spectrum closest to where we actually need to be.

Cornucopian types are more like 1819

'But they are at the end of the spectrum closest to where we actually need to be.'

The city Greens or the country Greens?

Dr. Fauci endorses Tinder hookups ‘if you’re willing to take a risk’

https://nypost.com/2020/04/15/fauci-endorses-tinder-hookups-with-a-cavea...

Tired of having to live your sex life online during lockdown? You’re in luck.

Government coronavirus expert Dr. Anthony Fauci says that heartsick isolationists can hook up with asymptomatic Tinder matches in real life — but, like love, it involves some risk.

The 79-year-old immunologist dropped the unorthodox dating tip in a Tuesday interview on Snapchat’s “Good Luck America.”

Toward the end of the taped segment, Fauci was asked: “If you’re swiping on a dating app like Tinder, or Bumble or Grindr, and you match with someone that you think is hot, and you’re just kind of like, ‘Maybe it’s fine if this one stranger comes over.’ What do you say to that person?”

Nah the guy just a very dry sense of humor.

Dr Fauci should get the sack according to this guy who has among other degrees a PhD in bio-engineering.

Dr. SHIVA Ayyadurai, MIT PhD Crushes Dr. Fauci Exposes Birx, Clintons, Bill Gates, And The W.H.O

https://youtu.be/NjjybyJ59Lw

America’s Daily Report’s Christina Aguayo interviews Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai on the discourse surrounding Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak in the US and the role of Dr. Fauci, Dr. Birx, Bill Gates, the Clintons and the WHO.

***

“Unfortunately this guy Fauci has been in this environment for nearly 4 decades across multiple presidents and is essentially embedded in this scientific establishment which has created an unfortunate lie about the immune system and an unfortunate lie about the solution to this coronavirus or more importantly infectious disease without any real emphasis which is a real issue about the fact that it is an overactive dysfunctional weakened immune system that overreacts and that’s what causes damage to the body. And unfortunately Fauci has not talked about that because the truth of that leads to a solution which has nothing to do with mandating vaccines and shutting down the country.” –Dr. Shiva Ayyadurai

Those Aussie casinos, good to see them looking after the shareholders.
You'd assume since they have left their staff hung out to dry that their govt would just take over the casino. Nice return for them...

Now Singapore reporting their biggest day in cases. I really rather stay in Lockdown for an another 2 weeks or more and make sure that it has been properly dealt with. Especially when most cases overseas are not showing any of the Coronavirus signs or they show problems with their Kidneys, Liver etc... How many out there in NZ that are asymptomatic and will spread the disease unknowingly once they are back at work.
All those newspapers arguments about the economy don't make sense if we have to go back in Lockdown again, in a few weeks. The economy would of gone down no matter what!

Yep, that's why the random testing is being done this afternoon ar Moorehouse Ave pak n sav (chc).
Queenstown yesterday.

The mechanics, the condition of health support, border quaratine, testing (above), contact tracing (moh v dhb), isolation (police checks), ppe inventory & use and inventory, aged care ops & supply of flu vacc.
This is the black box, no transparency.
If this black box was match fit, we would be good to go. But who knows?

Yesterdays story, The PMs pretense that there is no shortage of flu vacc in here South adds nothing to help.

They said at 1pm they had the results back from 1/2 the Qtn and all negative.

Which I think could be a problem. Surely the best result you want to see is they all, or the majority HAD it, and are no longer in danger of getting it or contagious?

ABC tv, showing the depth required to contact trace.

https://youtu.be/YjV3lu__eO8
The Contact Tracers.

Border business.
Q: any thoughts on how to verify/validate this?

Foreign Minister for the CCP, Wang Yi, arrived safely yesterday.

https://mobile.twitter.com/KermysReturn/status/1250923572215742464?s=20

Here is Ardern on her way to meet and greet Wang Yi

https://mobile.twitter.com/KermysReturn/status/1250924620472938496

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wang_Yi_(politician)

Wang was born in Beijing. After graduating from high school in September 1969, he was sent to Northeast China. He subsequently served in the Northeast Construction Army Corps in Heilongjiang Province for eight years.

In December 1977, Wang returned to Beijing, and in the same year was enrolled in the department of Asian and African Languages of Beijing International Studies University (BISU). He studied the Japanese language at the institution, graduating in February 1982 with a bachelor's degree. He's known to speak fluent English and Japanese.[1]

Wang's wife is the daughter of Qian Jiadong, who was the secretary of Zhou Enlai. He has a daughter.

https://amp.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3050764/chinese-foreig...

http://www.chinaembassy.org.nz/eng/zgyw/t1769663.htm

Complete and utter BS, there is zero there other than something some stupid Trumpanzee has concocted to fool the ignorant. I could do and put your name in instead of Ardern's

It would be very interesting to know what would be so pressing at this current time to require a meeting with our PM though...

Tull has learned to temper his line, but he still resembles a troll

I thought it was an intriguing talking point? Damage control?

Covid19 weak elderly patient: into ICU, LTVV, put patient into sleep/drip med, bed tilt - reduce mortality to 15%
Covid19 NZ F.I.RE economy: all Govt handout, more intervention, paused activities/expect foreign funds.. - pray