US activity regains half of 2020 losses; good US farm output getting low prices; Taiwan makes gains, India monsoon set good farm season; UST 10yr yield at 0.64%; oil firm and gold falls; NZ$1 = 65.4 USc; TWI-5 = 68.5

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news good farm outputs bring mixed fortunes.

But first in the US, the Chicago Fed's national activity index retreated in July and came in lower than analysts were expecting. However it is still indicating some bounce from the disastrous March and April results. Less than half of the plunge in activity has been recovered so far.

The Kansas City Fed reports that US farmers are doing it tough. Despite 2020 producing bumper crops of both corn and soybeans, prices are low and declining. Some crops like wheat only work with irrigation and these crops are costing more to produce than market prices. Subsidies are keeping the system together. Markets aren't working as they get distorted by Washington actions that seem to undermine them. Worse, the Chinese are buying huge quantities at these very low prices. Farm incomes are at their worst since 2016 and virtually collapsed in the last nine months. American meat markets are weak as well.

Taiwan reported that their retail sales rose +2.5% in July and their industrial production was up +2.6%. The industrial production gain was weaker than for both June 2020 and for July 2019. Their retail sales rise was their best of 2020 but still far lower than the July 2019 result.

In India, this year's monsoon rains have been good and brought a boost to their agriculture sector. Crop yields are expected to rise and help keep a lid on urban food cost pressures.

Back in New York, the S&P500 is up +0.6% today in late trade. They follow Europe where the gains were very much higher overnight, averaging about +2.3% in an eye-catching burst. Yesterday, Shanghai rose a modest +0.2%, Hong Kong an impressive +1.7%, and Tokyo a modest +0.3%. The ASX200 also closed up +0.3% and the NZX50 Capital Index rose +0.7%.

The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 23,508,000 and that is a huge daily jump, up +727,000 since when we last checked this time yesterday. Global deaths reported now exceed 810,000 (+15,000 in a day).

Just under a quarter of all reported cases globally are in the US, which is up +36,000 since yesterday to 5,892,000 and a relentless rise. US deaths are now just over 180,800 and a death rate of 546/mln (+1/mln). The net number of people actively infected in the US rose +16,000 overnight to 2,540,000, so more new infections than recoveries. They are not getting on top of it yet.

In Australia, there have now been 24,916 COVID-19 cases reported, another 104 overnight, and still very much concentrated in Victoria. Australia's death count is up to 517 (+15). Their recovery rate is up to just under 79%. There are 5801 active cases in Australia (-281) indicating a turned tide and more recoveries than new infections.

The UST 10yr yield is little-changed at 0.65%. Their 2-10 curve is little-changed at just under +50 bps. And their 1-5 curve is also little-changed at +15 bps, while their 3m-10yr curve is unchanged as well at +57 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr yield is still at 0.88%. The China Govt 10yr is unchanged at 3.02%. And the NZ Govt 10 yr yield will start today at a soft 0.58% and down -4 bps in a day.

The price of gold has fallen again overnight, down -US$14 to US$1,929/oz.

Oil prices have stayed soft but have lifted marginally overnight. They are now just over US$42.50/bbl in the US while the international price has lifted by almost +US$1 to just over US$45/bbl.

And the Kiwi dollar is unchanged again today at 65.4 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are basically unchanged too, at 91.2 AUc. Against the euro the story is similar at 55.4 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is still at 68.5 and still in a stable range.

The bitcoin price is up +1.0% from this time yesterday at US$11,764. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».