Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news there is no way to avoid the US election today, but there is other economic news.
Today we start with data that shows factories expanding in almost all markets, some strength markets hadn't counted on.
In the US, there were two PMIs released overnight. The widely-watched ISM one came in quite a lot better than expected. But the internationally-benchmarked Markit one was unchanged, recording a modest expansion.
Data for US construction spending (in September) was positive, but much less so than expected.
In China, their private factory PMI survey came in with a better result than the official one, recording a good expansion in their factory sector. In fact, it is now near a ten year high.
Confirming that, excavator sales were up +65% in October on the back of rising investment in real estate and infrastructure. And this sharp jump in orders will help their November PMIs. And the crescendo for their Singles Day retail event (Double-11) isn't hurting either.
Europe surprised with a good expansion returning.
Australia's factory sector lost momentum in October, one of the new regions to do so. But at least it is still expanding. (However, the local version suggested the momentum is not actually being lost.)
And later today, the RBA will release its monetary policy update and there are market expectations a rate cut is likely, down from 0.25% to 0.10%.
Equity markets have risen today. The S&P500 is up +0.8% in early afternoon trade and European markets were up an average of +2% overnight. Those positive PMI reports seem to be behind the improved mood. Also, the Q3 corporate earnings falls turned out to be far less than originally feared. Yesterday, Shanghai ended flat, but Hong Kong (+1.5%) and Tokyo (+1.4%) led the way for the European and New York markets.
The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is 46,688,000 and +443,000 overnight. It is still very grim in Russia and Western Europe with serious stress on their hospital systems. Sweden is also getting a new huge spike. The new British lockdown promises a grim Christmas there. Global deaths reported now exceed 1,203,000.
The largest number of reported cases globally are still in the US, which rose +71,000 since yesterday to 9,489,000 in their Sunday tally. The number of active cases is higher at 3,143,000 so many more new cases more than recoveries. And the sharp rise in hospitalisations is a real worry. Their death total now exceeds 237,000 and now rising at +1000 per day.
In Australia, they are not getting any resurgence. There have now been 27,602 COVID-19 cases reported, and that is just +7 more cases than we reported yesterday and all in NSW. Reported deaths are unchanged at 907.
The UST 10yr yield is down -3 bps today at just on 0.84%. Their 2-10 rate curve has flattened to +68 bps, their 1-5 curve is little-changed at +25 bps, along with their 3m-10 year curve, now also flatter at +74 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield will start today down -3 bps at 0.82%. The China Govt 10 year yield is still unchanged at 3.21%. And the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is up +2 bps at 0.56%.
The price of gold has held overnight, up +US$13 at US$1892/oz.
Oil prices have firmed marginally overnight and are now at just over US$36/bbl in the US, while the international price is now over US$38/bbl. But both are still near modern lows.
And the Kiwi dollar is little-changed this morning from this time yesterday at 66.2 USc. Against the Australian dollar we are weaker at 94 AUc. Against the euro we firmer at 56.9 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is little-changed at 69.9.
The bitcoin price starts today at US$13,516 and -2.1% lower than where we left it yesterday. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».