US jobless claims rise; Biden and Xi talk; China on holiday; London losing on Brexit; Aussie inflation expectations jump; UST 10yr at 1.16%; oil unchanged and gold down; NZ$1 = 72.3 USc; TWI-5 = 73.7

Here's our summary of key economic events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news China's Spring Festival migrations will be very muted this year.

But first in the US, they reported 813,000 actual new jobless claims for last week, higher and above what was expected. The prior week's tally was revised up too. However, on a seasonally adjusted basis they can report a small decline. There are now 5.0 mln people on these benefits, a drop of -167,000 as qualifications expire for more than the number getting support.

The US President and the Chinese Party boss had their first official phone call. Nothing eventuated of course, but at least they have now talked.

China is now on its week-long Spring Festival holiday. Its the Year of the Ox. Markets are closed until Thursday next week, although the break in Hong Kong will be shorter. Huge numbers of people will be traveling, most from cities to their home regions. This is despite official urging to stay put this year because of the COVID spreading risks. But as this is the only holiday break migrant workers get in a year (and the only chance for many to see their children who are being looked after by grandparents), the pressure to travel is very strong. But as far as international travel this year is concerned, it will be dead from China.

In Europe, the Brexit consequences are starting to hit London as a financial center. Firms are leaving or shifting trading to either Frankfurt, Amsterdam or even New York. The amounts of business involved is huge. And there are signs the EU is about to cut London even further. Britain has even larger issues with its across-channel goods trade as well.

In Australia, consumer inflation expectations jumped to 3.7% in February and are now far above actual inflation at 0.9% pa. The RBA's survey of economists see it rising by 1.6%.

On Wall Street the S&P500 is little changed in early afternoon trade, down just -0.2% as this market meanders at its all-time top for a third straight day. Overnight European markets were very mixed with Frankfurt up +0.8%, Paris unchanged, and the others in between. Yesterday Shanghai was closed and will be for the next week for its New Year holiday, Hong Kong was up +0.5% but it too is taking a few days holiday. The Tokyo market was up +0.2% yesterday. The ASX200 fell -0.1% while the NZX50 Capital Index fell -0.5%.

The latest global compilation of COVID-19 data is here. The global tally is still rising, now at 107,482,000 and up +434,000 in one day. The pandemic seems to be easing in many places now. Global deaths reported now exceed 2,358,000 and +12,000 since yesterday.

More countries (84) have started their vaccination programs. About 151.7 mln doses have been given so far (+15.6 mln more overnight), and there is clear evidence the vaccines are working to reduce or even eliminate deaths for those who have taken it.

The largest number of reported cases globally are still in the US, which rose +96,000 overnight for their tally to reach 27,907,000. The US remains the global epicentre of the virus although there is some easing. The number of active cases fell sharply overnight and is now just on 9,593,000 and -94,000 less in one day, so many more recoveries than new infections. Their death total is up however as 483,000 (+3000) as the vaccination program kicks in. The US now has a COVID death rate of 1455/mln, and that compares to the disastrous UK level (1686) where deaths are also still rising (115,000 but no update overnight).

In Australia, their community control is impressive. Their all-time cases reported is now 28,879 and only +8 more cases overnight, two more in the community and the rest are new arrivals and all in managed isolation. 49 of these cases are 'active' (+4). Reported deaths are unchanged at 909.

The UST 10yr yield is up +2 bps from yesterday at just on 1.16%. Their 2-10 rate curve is steeper at 105 bps, their 1-5 curve is unchanged at +39 bps, while their 3m-10 year curve is also steeper at +113 bps. The Australian Govt 10 year yield is down -2 bps at 1.20%. The China Govt 10 year yield is unchanged at 3.26%, while the New Zealand Govt 10 year yield is sharply lower by -9 bps at 1.31% having got way ahead of itself earlier in the week.

The price of gold will start today down -US$12 at US$1828/oz.

Oil prices are little-changed for a second day in a row at US$58/bbl in the US, while the international price is at US$61/bbl.

And the Kiwi dollar will open today marginally firmer at 72.3 USc. And against the Australian dollar we are marginally softer at 93.3 AUc. Against the euro we are up slightly to at 59.7 euro cents. That means our TWI-5 is a little firmer at 73.7.

The bitcoin price has risen strongly overnight and is now at US$47,658 and up by +6.4% in a day. At one point it hit a new all-time high of US$48,317. Volatility remains high at +/- 4.8%. The bitcoin rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».