Realestate.co.nz report shows lifeless housing market in August; high inventory levels in 'buyers market'

Realestate.co.nz report shows lifeless housing market in August; high inventory levels in 'buyers market'

Housing inventory remained over 46 weeks worth of sales in August, meaning it remains a 'buyers market,' Realestate.co.nz's August report showed

The housing market has failed to show signs of returning to life early in the Spring sales season, according to a report from Realestate.co.nz on listings figures in August.

The number of new listings coming onto the market fell 7% to 9,804 in August from July, but sales have also been weak, meaning the inventory of unsold houses on the market still remains over 46 weeks.

Inventory rose to 46.8 weeks in July from June and edged down to 46.1 weeks in August. Asking prices rose 1% to a truncated mean of NZ$403,423.

"The month of August this year showed little signs of such a pick-up, with new listings below 10,000 and down nearly 11% on a seasonally adjusted basis. This decline in listings would ordinarily signal a tightening of the market at this time of year, were it not for the existing high levels of inventory already on the market and the flow-on impact of slow sales," Realestate.co.nz CEO Alistair Helm said. The full report is also available at Unconditional.co.nz

Sales in July of 4,411 were down 27% on the previous year to a record low for a July. August sales figures are yet to be reported by REINZ.

"These slow sales are resulting in inventory levels of unsold houses remaining above 46 weeks as compared to the long term average of 38 weeks, reinforcing the view that the market still favours buyers over sellers," Helm said.

"With consolidated long-term data indicating 38 weeks to be the national threshold between a market favourable to either sellers or buyers, current inventory levels continue to show that most parts of New Zealand remain a buyer’s market," he said.

However, the report showed a two speed property property with major metropolitan centres stronger than provincial centres.

See more regional detail below. See the full report attached here.

Auckland has inventory levels closer to long term average (36 weeks vs. 33 weeks), new listing numbers were trending lower than the national average and the asking price has been edging up for the past couple of months.

Wellington equally is now at a level of inventory only slightly above long term average, new listings are down and asking price is steady.

Canterbury at 32 weeks of inventory of unsold houses is sitting right on the long term average, it has steady asking price and new listings volumes down 10% compared to prior year.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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yes also seeing 10% below CV at the moment.

Worth noting however that certain more desirable suburbs in the central(ish) Auckland area are holding their prices quite well, still selling over GV in most cases.  In particular houses in the 500k plus range seem to be attracting reasonable demand.

Its interesting as well that the recent round of CVs' has seen some downward movement (at least that I have observed)

The offers will continue to drop both in number and as to price. This is the new normal plod along pace of this economy. Get used to it. The pressure on prices will remain the exodus to aus, the drop off in immigration numbers, the rising cost of credit, the high real unemployment rate, the growing fiscal deficit and the march of the capital out of the country.

If China spits a dummy expect another sharp leg down for Noddyland. When the aussie property bubble implodes, that too will send shock waves across to this side of the ditch.

The promised export driven recovery with the 170ooo jobs is so much hot air. English has no option but to abandon "hope" and start swinging an axe to the state sector. We cannot take Bernanke's route to hell in QE handbasket. It is the austerity option or capitulation.

Cripes you a stirrer Bernard...............now where did I put that crop............oh that bloody horse is lying on it.

;)

Aim to please and tease

cheers

Bernard

then you're in the wrong profession.

I am not suprised by the August report. Sources from within the RE industry are telling me that sale volumes are still very weak and the buyers are getting more and more sure of their strong position. I predict the values of houses in New Zealand are going to creep down by the month over the next year and a half at least ,to values we can only dream of at present.This can only be considered great news for our kids who were shut out until it started to slip in 2007.

Until recently I was one of the biggest defenders of property investment, but next week I'm about to join the ranks of the officially bankrupt, and that's all down to property.

As a property investor - and to stimmulate our business -

I say to the immigration department, but particularly to my "Real Estate Friends" in the government - just let more people in from all over the world.

Yeah, of course we need to be more productive - manufacturing - but later.

Without a strong Real Estate industry our economy is nothing. We need to sell houses/ properties to each other in order to get richer.

Ha ha , Walter . I don't know what you're imbibing ........ but I wish I could get me some !

Hey , wanna buy a house ..........ours is for sale !

Be buggered if I'm gonna bail out SCF and all those others who signed the Gumnut Guarantee . ........... Up with this I will put no longer !    We're awayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy .

A quiet little beach in the Visayas , Phils.

Rogie- you know, debating the “Real Economy” it seems people aren’t interested, so I thought with a few BS- comments I can "help" and bring the “Housing Issue” up to another 200- 300 BS-comments again.

Of course I hate talking about the Real Estate Industry. Overall it doesn’t make us wealthier, but poorer and after all - foreigners are the profiteers.

We need to develop a strong manufacturing culture including attractive sectors (Science & Research), which makes us Kiwis wealthier. To many good educated/ skilled young Kiwis are leaving NZ., because we are in this country not providing enough decent jobs.

You are right , Walter  :  Tacking  " house " into the headline guarantees a response quicker than adding  " gov't guarantee " gets a queue of cashed up oldies !

Not only are " good educated/ skilled young Kiwis leaving NZ "  , but me too !

Exceptionally good prices on the day you bought them but water has flowed under the bridge since and those investments as you call them are now worth less and that trend is going to carry on for some years yet. Why would you buy in a dropping market other than to prove how stupid you are.

Makes no difference what you paid as they are going to continue to drop in price for several years to come. Simple fact,more sellers than buyers and getting worse by the day.

Simpleton - no, with respect, it's down to you. Always better to do 'mea culpa' if mea has culped.

Don't worry about 'the economy'. It's a totally artificial construct, given noun status via mantra-like repetition.

It was always a temporary state of affairs.

If it's you home keep it. If it's a renter, ping it - and give some young couple the chance you probably had....

Of course it is ... government is the only growth industry at the moment.

..correct - and I’m worried, without taxpayers fighting back - almost into a free roaming monster.

I'm ready ........Kunst..... as you already know my little coup ...for El Presidente'... fell over due to apathy and a lack of munitions funding...........  it wasn't covered under the Govt Grants scheme and Lassie took off when the Property market collapsed.........oh markmark where for art thou. 

Currently I'm being proactive by besmirching the good name of our right honorables  and linking them to sordid financial practices.

I must confess this is hard work and progress is slow due to the acceptability of corruption among our politicians and City officials.

I still have a T-shirt in my cupboard of Che Guevara and a red flag - lets do it..

Well I'm up for it......... but the kids don't know who Che was.....so hold fire on the shirt.

That’s the trouble of “our time” hardly anyone know about real people – they are all talking about Bernanke, Watson and other corrupt and/or criminal people.

Viva  el Presidente' : Count of Christov ........

....... has a nice ring to it ! And it's  odds on that  you'll make a better fist of captaining  the NZ-Debtanic than either Key or Goofy . Got my vote , buddy , and the pitchfork is ready for the incumbents  ............

ta ...GBH....I'll set to work on a new plan....of course I'll need Walter to proof it..... but if you exit the Country and await instruction......

 

VIVA the Revolution...!! oh boy oh boy oh boy

For whom does the bell toll.................. Meester Dong.....Key

Well that's three of you against the mass ignorance of the general voting brainwashed public.  I wish you luck my friends !!

thanks Matt........ we will fight the good fight.... as we did in Bolivia in another lifetime...

 but history will recall us............well er maybe GBH's trademark will have a fashion content by then.... but that aside.... thank you for your encouragement.... and remember all donations are welcome and your  privacy assured.

I realize you have just bought your first Hacienda and so would not expect too large a contribution.

                                  Viva the Revolution.

Good idea donation - to our "Revolut. Action Boss" R. Hide under: UBS (Switzerland) 076. 1234. 2133. 6660

What’s about you Matt ? Are you just a bobble-head or are you with us - starting up a revolution towards a better NZ.?

Next to Russel Norman we need one or two more flag carriers, a free trade negotiator for Cuba/ Fiji and for the next 3 years a Real Estate ambassador for China to sell off NZ.

 

GBH can collect all donation(s) deposited in Switzerland and buy some Swiss pocket knives and cow bells to sound the bells for the first round of our revolution - Friday 26th of November 2010 in Wellington Central.

............note to self : Bring Matches ! Trying to start a fire with a flint should be left to Bear Grylls ............... don't wanna look like a fool at the revolution ...........again...........

Just leave the underpants on the inside this time GBH.

And lose the potato...it's not working....at least not down the back anyway.

Got a pair of those Daniel Carter under-daks ............... still a bit sweaty ............ was it a dumb idea to raid his sports bag ?

Huh , just repeated meself ............. Feck ! .... It was bollocks the first time ............ undies on the inside you say ............kinda sophisticated aren't ya !

Sophisticated...........no GBH that's so you don't give away your super identity ..!

 as to carters up's..........lose em..! there for ball kicking only...and I have other plans for you and that big brain of yours.

Damn it's all happening so fast I feel like I'm on 24 .....yeah that's it I'm Jack thingamebob.

OK  Kunst 26 November Friday Welle Central.....Bells....uh that Russell Norman's a bit of a squeak aint he...?  he screamed like a girl when they took the flag away......... and I'm getting concerned about GBH's potential as a fire starter............. it seems he wants to bring real matches...?

anyways good progress Kunst....I just knew you were no slacker.

Still something in the back of my brain about Nov 26 ...eh...ah well it'll come.

There should be a serious debate about  a slimmer, leaner government an all levels, nationwide, regional and City Councils, all should cut expenses.

If I remember it right, government is costing close to 50% of GDP. This is horrendous!

The problem is, nobody  wants to abolish or cut  handouts  which would cut his/her  own entitlements. Hence the government in order to secure votes, does not dare to change the spending spree.

But there is no way around the problem of  too much tax  and too much rates, other than to reduce spending.

To begin with, do we really need so many MPs in parliament?

Do members of parliament really need travel and other perks despite their reasonable income?

How much could welfare cost be reduced in order that nobody needs to starve but also nobody gets the support because he/she could stand on their own feet and take responsibility for their own life?

How much of government services could be taken over by volunteers/community groups/charities?

How many commissions do we really need? The installment of a "commission" for any trivia is shocking and just wasteful.

Do we really need a "Supercity", nobody has done a costing and nobody can answer the question if there are savings at all. Considering the practical experience that the bigger an organization gets, the more costly and immovable and impersonal it gets. Examples all over the world aplenty.

What would we, the populace and taxpayer accept regarding "tightening the debt" in the interest of the higher good. How much longer could everybody work, assuming he/she stays healthy longer in life?

Any ideas anybody?

Gareth Morgan's Big Kahuna.

Yeah - I got one.

No credit, no interest, natural capital accounted in full.

I think your GDP is a red-herring (even the guy who invented it as a wartime comparitor thought it was flawed) and I think that under that regime, wages and salaries would settle down.

Slight problem - getting off this bus and onto that. Many dashed expectations, and some jostling, one would expect.

Perhaps not in the short term Gertraud..... but the place to start is in the minds and hearts of the young.

Re-educate their psyche to understand that over-representation is wasteful and counter-productive to achieving consensus progress.

 To that end body's to represent factions and those marginalised by the majority or simply P.C. organisations have sprung from every crack in the system and flourished to the point where the ......System itself.... gauges it's longevity  by it's ability to manipulate the opinions of those "body's"

We have got to tell them we got it wrong..... and sometimes life isn't fair....and recourse to justice is not always available to all people.

Oddly enough a lot of that springs from teaching our kids that competition need not be in earnest as a reward of some description will be afforded them .

It is in our nature to compete for survival.... we are systematically unwinding that part of our childrens DNA.  

In last sentence should read "tightening the belt"

It's only a short journey from being the right people to being the wrong people for many households in New Zealand.

Amen that

Come on Nony............nonny and anonononononny...... get a name and hook up where..........

we love you...................XX

 come on ya scamps...... you can rip each other to bits without the rest of us getting dizzy

trying to keep up with who's who.

unless you are arguing with yourself in which case Dr.Hyde may be a good choice for one name.

So are you saying that the only way people should own an average home (around 350K isn't it?) is once their bank account balance reaches the $3.5m mark? I wonder how many home owners there'd be if that was the case.

Are you my former slumlord husband who wouldn't put showers in his houses cos he personally liked to have a bath so "it wasn't worth it"? Sounds like it.

Happens when the sewers give out...but 'fraid you're the wrong initials.

Ruru "Happens when the sewers give out."

Priceless!

Bernard is very good in cutting sentences in half, when it suits him. For those who don’t read whole article:

  1. The volume of new listings coming onto the market fell again in August with under 10,000 for the first time since June last year. As the chart shows this is the 5th consecutive month of decline
  2. The truncated mean asking price for August was $403,423, down just 0.6% on the prior 3 month average and up 1.6% on August last year. This would indicate stability in price expectation amongst sellers
  3. The steady decline in new listings seen for 5 straight months is beginning to tell in the market with early signs of what could be a looming shortage, if sales were to take off
  4. Auckland has inventory levels closer to long term average (36 weeks vs. 33 weeks), new listing numbers were trending lower than the national average and the asking price has been edging up for the past couple of months.

The property market is utterly screwed for the next five to ten years, at least.

Unless banks once again start having mortgage lolly scrambles, and average incomes increase significantly, the property market will remain depressed.

The spring flood of property offerings will turn into a mortgagee disaster as the existing glut becomes a super glut, while potential buyers sit on the sidelines and laugh at desperate yet still dreaming sellers.

So many people are saddled with huge mortgages which seemed like a good idea in the time of infinite capital gains mindset, but now that everything is going backwards except the size of their mortgage payments, the number of available options are small and all tough.

Many of these people are telling themselves that it's all going to be OK, and a lot of them are too blind and ignorant to even recognise just how much trouble they're really in, but that can't last...the money will have to be repaid at some point, and last I checked Duble Dipton wasn't offering any taxpayer-funded welfare bludges for mortgages.

Unless you're a Southland dairy farmer.

The impact of the RWC will be minor at best. Some perspective;

We are expecting (hoping for) 85,000 overseas visitors to the event. We usually get about 2,500,00 tourists per year.

Most of the regular type tourists will not be coming - drunk rugby fans are unlikely to be a draw card for most. We will probably end up with fewer  visitors than usual overall.

Eden park can hold about 40,000. The rest will be watching on telly. Unless we've got a levy on take home beer sold in Britain or  Blumefontain  how is that a benefit?

Most of the figures you see on "economic benefit "are fabricated up with the intention of sucking the rest of us into paying for the fantasies of politicians/businesses/local governments/the rugby union.

My sauce is telling me the RBA is set to start raising again and maybe another 75bps...my tea leaves report the aussie bubble is in trouble!

You gotta lay off.............. the sauce Wally............it's only giving you bad news and me an ulcer.

"lay off"...I'm laying up a roomful of the best sauce Christov...gotta beat the gst rort and we all know what shoots up in price with gold...only the top stuff mind!

good for you Wally..! Chateau..........?

“…it is difficult enough to convince some people that the economy is in fact not providing the security they desire, but is actually destroying their future completely. To explain to them that this is deliberate, that the economy is designed to self-destruct, that is another prospect altogether…

Whew...........boy you'd feel sick after that ..!

Wally I have repeatedly said ........that I sense and therefore believe...(I'm happy to be wrong)...that The Global economic meltdown has been so badly managed that you'd almost think it was planned as far as was controllable.

That the outcome would be to steal the wealth of a Gen or Two and find a new Ground Zero.. for what (they) the central banks and  whose interests they control deem to be for the Greater Good.

K.RRRRRRRRRRist............ I hope I'm so far wrong that being a fringe loon would be acceptable to me.  

Nope...you are not wrong...but expect to be made the scapegoat for the demise of all the toilet paper and for the theft of all the savings...the spin will blame the 'loons' for having caused the run on the banks. You will be run out... of what's left of town...and those who really did cause the end of time will promote themselves as the future leaders prepared to devote their time and energy to ensure the greater good for all.

Anon......... almost every comment you see here will have a vested interest bias ....including mine.

Yesssss....and are you going to invest some munny anon!....are you willing to put your own munny on the table....a bet against those who predict an end for the toilet paper? All you have to do is buy heaps of long term USgovt bonds. Just takes a phone call anon!

Wally is always agitated...you would be too if you'd had the hard life he has...quite sad really!

anyway here we have it direct to Wallyworld:

 

Yessirree..The wind is blowing in a different more positive direction today with a strong rebound in global equity markets. The US market has had its best day in 8 weeks rallying circa 3%. (Whilst I am reminded market rallies are always built on shaky foundations….the direction from here is still suggesting cautious range trading with buying on dips being rewarded eg BHP<$38.00 and only in key sectors and themes such as the emerging market consumer, agriculture, water, dividend stories and energy)

Short covering in banks is noticeable (as is the better bank commentary now coming from a variety of analysts). This has the potential to continue.The rally came from better US August ISM news. The July construction and the August ADP labour figures were somewhat disappointing but investors ignored them. 

The final Eurozone manufacturing PMI at 55.1 was in line with the flash estimate. Germany is now showing some moderation in momentum. France was better. The Swiss PMI was down sharply.

 

So there..and not a CAPLOCK in sight!

rock on elves

How nice of you to care Rob...I note you qualify your market enthusiam (shaky foundations)!

I am pleased to be out of copper even though it has spiked to $7600....the top is as difficult to pick as the bottom. Now there remains the task of where to move the loot. Made all the easier having read the stuff from the 'sauce' to discover the RBA is soon to ram 75 basis points onto the rate over there. Now what will that do the kiwi/aus cross me thinks. Wait for the gap to open I say. What would you do?

There is no need for you to depart the site anony..........As Rob O North said.....you will have your detractors as they have you.................

from time to time you have lost your rag as have we all for different reasons on different days....but............... it is all.....banter after all and no grudges held.

You are the bullish pi.... and that has it's place in the mix of things......you are easily recognised and that gives you personality.........

I may not agree with your stand on things............. but I respect your commitment and understand your frustration.

Personally I hope you sign up....get a bigger chin..... but if not good luck to you in your choice of paths.

I agree with you Anon,it is currently a terrible investment. Values of houses in NZ are going to slip away each month over the next five to ten years and we are going to see when it finishes values that people will not perceive as being possible at this stage. It will be great for my and your children as they will be able to buy houses without our help.

sorry Anon. I cashed up a large portfolio in 2007/2008 as I saw the writing on the wall. No longer working as I do not need to,no tenants which is great and just enjoying the fact I was correct in following what the analysts and advisors said I should do. I speak to colleagues daily and it is getting worse by the month for them and vendors. The long awaited drop in prices is slowly grinding up momentum and it is about to get into second gear. Hold on. There will be blood on the floor from investors who are over committed in debt. The banks will not muck around.

i don't know why posters like "anon(s)" are writing their farewell notes?

all you have to do is register on this site as a commenter before sept 12, give yourself a online name like i have and carry on...it's how it was before this site was upgraded!

why do you think Wally calls himself Wolly?

cause he is one.. and also someone else has pinched/registered his name....

Anon.............there has never been one to beat ...........A Peek at the Sea........ that is achieved by  standing on the toilet bowl and opening the louvers.

Nicely put.....!.. ExS

Because when you are in sales and especially if you are good at it you start to believe your own press and you are incapable of being objective. That is the problem in NZ, a lot of people in the industry and the investors think property is a sure thing. I can assure you it isn't and that is now being played out in the market. As QV said in August spring is not going to fix it this year and we have more drops to come over the next few months. Even Tony Alexander is putting out the date for recovery to occur.It is years away and if you need or want to sell then do it now as prices are going to keep falling for some time. There is not one positive factor out there at present to support property prices in NZ including farms and commercials. We are still in very cautious times. People are just coping with their existing debts and cost of living expenses.

Sorry Anon , I just took advantage of the market and sold a very successful agency at the top. Why work when you do not need to. You might just be suprised how many agents are currently leaving and how many agencies are closing or selling at reduced values from 2008. When I talk about advisors I am talking about my lawyer and accountant which is only normal business practice. I was not a failure and still have very good contacts in the industry who are only too happy to tell me how bad it is and how worse it is getting by the month. You sound like one of the many struggling agents who are currently wondering why the heck they are in the industry which is only going to get worse. Maybe you should be looking for a new job.

You can attack me as much as you like anon. The facts speak for themselves. It peaked in 2007, I got rid of some of them then and the last ones in 2008. Next weeks figures from QV will confirm just how strong the buyers position currently is and it is getting better by the month. Just because I got out does not make me a failure. Is Sam Morgan a failure because he sold Trade Me. I got offered fantastic money which I would not get now. I do not need to work just like Sam Morgan. I can play around with new ideas and ventures and do non paid work on community boards. What is wrong with that. Better than sitting in an office watching nothing happening and wondering what is going to happen if things do not improve. There are very few agents in NZ curently making a living like they used to. Are you in fact one of them.

Anon "I am not attacking you personally................... or is it community work for your convictions?"

Nasty and uncalled for Anon, ex agent has been totally reasonable and not offensive in his comments. You anons are all the same.

I am not bitter and I am not anti property anon. Otherwise I would have sold my home. I believe I am just being honest and realistic. Property is a good investment but just like shares it is all about timing. Now is not a good time to be in it. Cash is currently king.  People who have bought property since 2007 have the risk of losing money if they sell it now and that is going to get worse for them. Why would you buy in a dropping market? I could no longer look people in the eyes and tell them to get stuck into property as an investment. But that is what agents are still doing. I think they need to examine their consciences a bit more if they have one.

 

Having read through the 80% of dross on this thread I'd side with ex-agent.  2007 approx. sept was the peak of the market and it has all been downhill since then.

All the numbers and trends point to continuing inventory growth as vendors still have rocks in their heads with respect price expectations and many are unwilling to negotiate on price even though they advertise PBN.  Additionally liquidity is shot as vendors can't sell so can't buy onwards and the banks arent lending. This is key, unrealistic pricing and f all liquidity = no price discovery so no-one is really sure how low prices are (and they are lower than is being reported with 'medians'.).

How do I know? Simple, have been looking seriously at buying and after having made reasonable cash offers on property which have been rejected have concluded that the best place to be is sitting on he sidelines collecting interest on my money and waiting for vendors to get real.

It's interesting to watch the vendors who used to have cash offers on the table continue to wait with their houses on the market.

It ain't pretty out there for vendors and once the herd breaks on pricing the whole market will drop.  Real estate agents must be the game changers this spring otherwise 50% will be out of jobs.

Is the car (VW) still in running order - no burst tyres, removed engine or windscreen wipers not working ? It seems the previous owner, Alan H. had some issues there.