'Housing showing few signs of life'

Realestate.co.nz report shows lifeless housing market in August; high inventory levels in 'buyers market'

1st Sep 10, 10:27am by Bernard Hickey

<p> Housing inventory remained over 46 weeks worth of sales in August, meaning it remains a 'buyers market,' Realestate.co.nz's August report showed</p>

The housing market has failed to show signs of returning to life early in the Spring sales season, according to a report from Realestate.co.nz on listings figures in August.

The number of new listings coming onto the market fell 7% to 9,804 in August from July, but sales have also been weak, meaning the inventory of unsold houses on the market still remains over 46 weeks.

Inventory rose to 46.8 weeks in July from June and edged down to 46.1 weeks in August. Asking prices rose 1% to a truncated mean of NZ$403,423.

"The month of August this year showed little signs of such a pick-up, with new listings below 10,000 and down nearly 11% on a seasonally adjusted basis. This decline in listings would ordinarily signal a tightening of the market at this time of year, were it not for the existing high levels of inventory already on the market and the flow-on impact of slow sales," Realestate.co.nz CEO Alistair Helm said. The full report is also available at Unconditional.co.nz

Sales in July of 4,411 were down 27% on the previous year to a record low for a July. August sales figures are yet to be reported by REINZ.

"These slow sales are resulting in inventory levels of unsold houses remaining above 46 weeks as compared to the long term average of 38 weeks, reinforcing the view that the market still favours buyers over sellers," Helm said.

"With consolidated long-term data indicating 38 weeks to be the national threshold between a market favourable to either sellers or buyers, current inventory levels continue to show that most parts of New Zealand remain a buyer’s market," he said.

However, the report showed a two speed property property with major metropolitan centres stronger than provincial centres.

See more regional detail below. See the full report attached here.

Auckland has inventory levels closer to long term average (36 weeks vs. 33 weeks), new listing numbers were trending lower than the national average and the asking price has been edging up for the past couple of months.

Wellington equally is now at a level of inventory only slightly above long term average, new listings are down and asking price is steady.

Canterbury at 32 weeks of inventory of unsold houses is sitting right on the long term average, it has steady asking price and new listings volumes down 10% compared to prior year.

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77 Comments

by Blair Rogers | 1st Sep 10, 11:22am 1283296960

yes also seeing 10% below CV at the moment.

by A Banker | 1st Sep 10, 11:59am 1283299197

Worth noting however that certain more desirable suburbs in the central(ish) Auckland area are holding their prices quite well, still selling over GV in most cases. In particular houses in the 500k plus range seem to be attracting reasonable demand.

Its interesting as well that the recent round of CVs' has seen some downward movement (at least that I have observed)

by Wolly | 1st Sep 10, 11:11am 1283296291

The offers will continue to drop both in number and as to price. This is the new normal plod along pace of this economy. Get used to it. The pressure on prices will remain the exodus to aus, the drop off in immigration numbers, the rising cost of credit, the high real unemployment rate, the growing fiscal deficit and the march of the capital out of the country.

If China spits a dummy expect another sharp leg down for Noddyland. When the aussie property bubble implodes, that too will send shock waves across to this side of the ditch.

The promised export driven recovery with the 170ooo jobs is so much hot air. English has no option but to abandon "hope" and start swinging an axe to the state sector. We cannot take Bernanke's route to hell in QE handbasket. It is the austerity option or capitulation.

by Christov | 1st Sep 10, 11:28am 1283297282

Cripes you a stirrer Bernard...............now where did I put that crop............oh that bloody horse is lying on it.

by Bernard Hickey | 1st Sep 10, 1:15pm 1283303759

;)

Aim to please and tease

cheers

Bernard

by powerdownkiwi | 1st Sep 10, 1:29pm 1283304576

then you're in the wrong profession.

by ex agent | 1st Sep 10, 11:34am 1283297671

I am not suprised by the August report. Sources from within the RE industry are telling me that sale volumes are still very weak and the buyers are getting more and more sure of their strong position. I predict the values of houses in New Zealand are going to creep down by the month over the next year and a half at least ,to values we can only dream of at present.This can only be considered great news for our kids who were shut out until it started to slip in 2007.

by Simpleton | 1st Sep 10, 12:01pm 1283299298

Until recently I was one of the biggest defenders of property investment, but next week I'm about to join the ranks of the officially bankrupt, and that's all down to property.

by Kunst | 1st Sep 10, 12:00pm 1283299204

As a property investor - and to stimmulate our business -

I say to the immigration department, but particularly to my "Real Estate Friends" in the government - just let more people in from all over the world.

Yeah, of course we need to be more productive - manufacturing - but later.

by Kunst | 1st Sep 10, 12:42pm 1283301724

Without a strong Real Estate industry our economy is nothing. We need to sell houses/ properties to each other in order to get richer.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 1st Sep 10, 12:48pm 1283302095

Ha ha , Walter . I don't know what you're imbibing ........ but I wish I could get me some !

Hey , wanna buy a house ..........ours is for sale !

Be buggered if I'm gonna bail out SCF and all those others who signed the Gumnut Guarantee . ........... Up with this I will put no longer ! We're awayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy .

by Gummy Bear Hero | 1st Sep 10, 1:12pm 1283303578

A quiet little beach in the Visayas , Phils.

by Kunst | 1st Sep 10, 1:36pm 1283305014

Rogie- you know, debating the “Real Economy” it seems people aren’t interested, so I thought with a few BS- comments I can "help" and bring the “Housing Issue” up to another 200- 300 BS-comments again.

Of course I hate talking about the Real Estate Industry. Overall it doesn’t make us wealthier, but poorer and after all - foreigners are the profiteers.

We need to develop a strong manufacturing culture including attractive sectors (Science & Research), which makes us Kiwis wealthier. To many good educated/ skilled young Kiwis are leaving NZ., because we are in this country not providing enough decent jobs.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 1st Sep 10, 2:32pm 1283308362

You are right , Walter : Tacking " house " into the headline guarantees a response quicker than adding " gov't guarantee " gets a queue of cashed up oldies !

Not only are " good educated/ skilled young Kiwis leaving NZ " , but me too !

by ex agent | 1st Sep 10, 1:30pm 1283304654

Exceptionally good prices on the day you bought them but water has flowed under the bridge since and those investments as you call them are now worth less and that trend is going to carry on for some years yet. Why would you buy in a dropping market other than to prove how stupid you are.

by ex agent | 1st Sep 10, 2:42pm 1283308967

Makes no difference what you paid as they are going to continue to drop in price for several years to come. Simple fact,more sellers than buyers and getting worse by the day.

by powerdownkiwi | 1st Sep 10, 12:05pm 1283299528

Simpleton - no, with respect, it's down to you. Always better to do 'mea culpa' if mea has culped.

by powerdownkiwi | 1st Sep 10, 12:32pm 1283301168

Don't worry about 'the economy'. It's a totally artificial construct, given noun status via mantra-like repetition.

It was always a temporary state of affairs.

If it's you home keep it. If it's a renter, ping it - and give some young couple the chance you probably had....

by Kate | 1st Sep 10, 1:23pm 1283304227

Of course it is ... government is the only growth industry at the moment.

by Kunst | 1st Sep 10, 1:41pm 1283305266

..correct - and I’m worried, without taxpayers fighting back - almost into a free roaming monster.

by Christov | 1st Sep 10, 2:18pm 1283307524

I'm ready ........Kunst..... as you already know my little coup ...for El Presidente'... fell over due to apathy and a lack of munitions funding........... it wasn't covered under the Govt Grants scheme and Lassie took off when the Property market collapsed.........oh markmark where for art thou.

Currently I'm being proactive by besmirching the good name of our right honorables and linking them to sordid financial practices.

I must confess this is hard work and progress is slow due to the acceptability of corruption among our politicians and City officials.

by Kunst | 1st Sep 10, 2:34pm 1283308488

I still have a T-shirt in my cupboard of Che Guevara and a red flag - lets do it..

by Christov | 1st Sep 10, 2:51pm 1283309483

Well I'm up for it......... but the kids don't know who Che was.....so hold fire on the shirt.

by Kunst | 1st Sep 10, 3:11pm 1283310694

That’s the trouble of “our time” hardly anyone know about real people – they are all talking about Bernanke, Watson and other corrupt and/or criminal people.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 1st Sep 10, 2:39pm 1283308747

Viva el Presidente' : Count of Christov ........

....... has a nice ring to it ! And it's odds on that you'll make a better fist of captaining the NZ-Debtanic than either Key or Goofy . Got my vote , buddy , and the pitchfork is ready for the incumbents ............

by Christov | 1st Sep 10, 2:55pm 1283309752

ta ...GBH....I'll set to work on a new plan....of course I'll need Walter to proof it..... but if you exit the Country and await instruction......

VIVA the Revolution...!! oh boy oh boy oh boy

For whom does the bell toll.................. Meester Dong.....Key

by Matt S | 1st Sep 10, 3:17pm 1283311050

Well that's three of you against the mass ignorance of the general voting brainwashed public. I wish you luck my friends !!

by Christov | 1st Sep 10, 3:38pm 1283312281

thanks Matt........ we will fight the good fight.... as we did in Bolivia in another lifetime...

but history will recall us............well er maybe GBH's trademark will have a fashion content by then.... but that aside.... thank you for your encouragement.... and remember all donations are welcome and your privacy assured.

I realize you have just bought your first Hacienda and so would not expect too large a contribution.

Viva the Revolution.

by Kunst | 1st Sep 10, 4:04pm 1283313872

Good idea donation - to our "Revolut. Action Boss" R. Hide under: UBS (Switzerland) 076. 1234. 2133. 6660

by Kunst | 1st Sep 10, 4:00pm 1283313616

What’s about you Matt ? Are you just a bobble-head or are you with us - starting up a revolution towards a better NZ.?

Next to Russel Norman we need one or two more flag carriers, a free trade negotiator for Cuba/ Fiji and for the next 3 years a Real Estate ambassador for China to sell off NZ.

by Kunst | 1st Sep 10, 4:12pm 1283314334

GBH can collect all donation(s) deposited in Switzerland and buy some Swiss pocket knives and cow bells to sound the bells for the first round of our revolution - Friday 26th of November 2010 in Wellington Central.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 1st Sep 10, 4:44pm 1283316274

............note to self : Bring Matches ! Trying to start a fire with a flint should be left to Bear Grylls ............... don't wanna look like a fool at the revolution ...........again...........

by Christov | 1st Sep 10, 5:17pm 1283318238

Just leave the underpants on the inside this time GBH.

And lose the potato...it's not working....at least not down the back anyway.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 1st Sep 10, 5:41pm 1283319699

Got a pair of those Daniel Carter under-daks ............... still a bit sweaty ............ was it a dumb idea to raid his sports bag ?

by Gummy Bear Hero | 1st Sep 10, 5:43pm 1283319828

Huh , just repeated meself ............. Feck ! .... It was bollocks the first time ............ undies on the inside you say ............kinda sophisticated aren't ya !

by Christov | 1st Sep 10, 6:23pm 1283322185

Sophisticated...........no GBH that's so you don't give away your super identity ..!

as to carters up's..........lose em..! there for ball kicking only...and I have other plans for you and that big brain of yours.

by Christov | 1st Sep 10, 5:14pm 1283318041

Damn it's all happening so fast I feel like I'm on 24 .....yeah that's it I'm Jack thingamebob.

OK Kunst 26 November Friday Welle Central.....Bells....uh that Russell Norman's a bit of a squeak aint he...? he screamed like a girl when they took the flag away......... and I'm getting concerned about GBH's potential as a fire starter............. it seems he wants to bring real matches...?

anyways good progress Kunst....I just knew you were no slacker.

Still something in the back of my brain about Nov 26 ...eh...ah well it'll come.

by Gertraud T. | 1st Sep 10, 2:12pm 1283307172

There should be a serious debate about a slimmer, leaner government an all levels, nationwide, regional and City Councils, all should cut expenses.

If I remember it right, government is costing close to 50% of GDP. This is horrendous!

The problem is, nobody wants to abolish or cut handouts which would cut his/her own entitlements. Hence the government in order to secure votes, does not dare to change the spending spree.

But there is no way around the problem of too much tax and too much rates, other than to reduce spending.

To begin with, do we really need so many MPs in parliament?

Do members of parliament really need travel and other perks despite their reasonable income?

How much could welfare cost be reduced in order that nobody needs to starve but also nobody gets the support because he/she could stand on their own feet and take responsibility for their own life?

How much of government services could be taken over by volunteers/community groups/charities?

How many commissions do we really need? The installment of a "commission" for any trivia is shocking and just wasteful.

Do we really need a "Supercity", nobody has done a costing and nobody can answer the question if there are savings at all. Considering the practical experience that the bigger an organization gets, the more costly and immovable and impersonal it gets. Examples all over the world aplenty.

What would we, the populace and taxpayer accept regarding "tightening the debt" in the interest of the higher good. How much longer could everybody work, assuming he/she stays healthy longer in life?

Any ideas anybody?

by Kate | 1st Sep 10, 2:26pm 1283308004

Gareth Morgan's Big Kahuna.

by powerdownkiwi | 1st Sep 10, 2:27pm 1283308033

Yeah - I got one.

No credit, no interest, natural capital accounted in full.

I think your GDP is a red-herring (even the guy who invented it as a wartime comparitor thought it was flawed) and I think that under that regime, wages and salaries would settle down.

Slight problem - getting off this bus and onto that. Many dashed expectations, and some jostling, one would expect.

by Christov | 1st Sep 10, 2:46pm 1283309206

Perhaps not in the short term Gertraud..... but the place to start is in the minds and hearts of the young.

Re-educate their psyche to understand that over-representation is wasteful and counter-productive to achieving consensus progress.

To that end body's to represent factions and those marginalised by the majority or simply P.C. organisations have sprung from every crack in the system and flourished to the point where the ......System itself.... gauges it's longevity by it's ability to manipulate the opinions of those "body's"

We have got to tell them we got it wrong..... and sometimes life isn't fair....and recourse to justice is not always available to all people.

Oddly enough a lot of that springs from teaching our kids that competition need not be in earnest as a reward of some description will be afforded them .

It is in our nature to compete for survival.... we are systematically unwinding that part of our childrens DNA.

by Gertraud T. | 1st Sep 10, 2:13pm 1283307212

In last sentence should read "tightening the belt"

by ruru | 1st Sep 10, 2:58pm 1283309883

It's only a short journey from being the right people to being the wrong people for many households in New Zealand.

by Christov | 1st Sep 10, 4:00pm 1283313626

Amen that

by Christov | 1st Sep 10, 4:07pm 1283314074

Come on Nony............nonny and anonononononny...... get a name and hook up where..........

we love you...................XX

come on ya scamps...... you can rip each other to bits without the rest of us getting dizzy

trying to keep up with who's who.

unless you are arguing with yourself in which case Dr.Hyde may be a good choice for one name.

by Elley | 1st Sep 10, 5:01pm 1283317261

So are you saying that the only way people should own an average home (around 350K isn't it?) is once their bank account balance reaches the $3.5m mark? I wonder how many home owners there'd be if that was the case.

by ruru | 1st Sep 10, 5:23pm 1283318610

Are you my former slumlord husband who wouldn't put showers in his houses cos he personally liked to have a bath so "it wasn't worth it"? Sounds like it.

by ruru | 1st Sep 10, 5:40pm 1283319654

Happens when the sewers give out...but 'fraid you're the wrong initials.

by David George | 2nd Sep 10, 9:08am 1283375329

Ruru "Happens when the sewers give out."

Priceless!

by Alen1 | 1st Sep 10, 9:59pm 1283335147

Bernard is very good in cutting sentences in half, when it suits him. For those who don’t read whole article:

The volume of new listings coming onto the market fell again in August with under 10,000 for the first time since June last year. As the chart shows this is the 5th consecutive month of decline
The truncated mean asking price for August was $403,423, down just 0.6% on the prior 3 month average and up 1.6% on August last year. This would indicate stability in price expectation amongst sellers
The steady decline in new listings seen for 5 straight months is beginning to tell in the market with early signs of what could be a looming shortage, if sales were to take off
Auckland has inventory levels closer to long term average (36 weeks vs. 33 weeks), new listing numbers were trending lower than the national average and the asking price has been edging up for the past couple of months.

by alen | 2nd Sep 10, 6:47am 1283366873

The property market is utterly screwed for the next five to ten years, at least.

Unless banks once again start having mortgage lolly scrambles, and average incomes increase significantly, the property market will remain depressed.

The spring flood of property offerings will turn into a mortgagee disaster as the existing glut becomes a super glut, while potential buyers sit on the sidelines and laugh at desperate yet still dreaming sellers.

So many people are saddled with huge mortgages which seemed like a good idea in the time of infinite capital gains mindset, but now that everything is going backwards except the size of their mortgage payments, the number of available options are small and all tough.

Many of these people are telling themselves that it's all going to be OK, and a lot of them are too blind and ignorant to even recognise just how much trouble they're really in, but that can't last...the money will have to be repaid at some point, and last I checked Duble Dipton wasn't offering any taxpayer-funded welfare bludges for mortgages.

Unless you're a Southland dairy farmer.

by David George | 2nd Sep 10, 9:01am 1283374895

The impact of the RWC will be minor at best. Some perspective;

We are expecting (hoping for) 85,000 overseas visitors to the event. We usually get about 2,500,00 tourists per year.

Most of the regular type tourists will not be coming - drunk rugby fans are unlikely to be a draw card for most. We will probably end up with fewer visitors than usual overall.

Eden park can hold about 40,000. The rest will be watching on telly. Unless we've got a levy on take home beer sold in Britain or Blumefontain how is that a benefit?

Most of the figures you see on "economic benefit "are fabricated up with the intention of sucking the rest of us into paying for the fantasies of politicians/businesses/local governments/the rugby union.

by jfal013 | 2nd Sep 10, 9:53am 1283377980

by Wolly | 2nd Sep 10, 10:48am 1283381297

My sauce is telling me the RBA is set to start raising again and maybe another 75bps...my tea leaves report the aussie bubble is in trouble!

by Christov | 2nd Sep 10, 10:52am 1283381549

You gotta lay off.............. the sauce Wally............it's only giving you bad news and me an ulcer.

by Wolly | 2nd Sep 10, 11:02am 1283382142

"lay off"...I'm laying up a roomful of the best sauce Christov...gotta beat the gst rort and we all know what shoots up in price with gold...only the top stuff mind!

by Christov | 2nd Sep 10, 11:15am 1283382947

good for you Wally..! Chateau..........?

by Wolly | 2nd Sep 10, 10:59am 1283381997

Suck on this sauce anon.... http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article22366.html

by Christov | 2nd Sep 10, 11:12am 1283382766

“…it is difficult enough to convince some people that the economy is in fact not providing the security they desire, but is actually destroying their future completely. To explain to them that this is deliberate, that the economy is designed to self-destruct, that is another prospect altogether…

Whew...........boy you'd feel sick after that ..!

Wally I have repeatedly said ........that I sense and therefore believe...(I'm happy to be wrong)...that The Global economic meltdown has been so badly managed that you'd almost think it was planned as far as was controllable.

That the outcome would be to steal the wealth of a Gen or Two and find a new Ground Zero.. for what (they) the central banks and whose interests they control deem to be for the Greater Good.

K.RRRRRRRRRRist............ I hope I'm so far wrong that being a fringe loon would be acceptable to me.

by Wolly | 2nd Sep 10, 11:20am 1283383252

Nope...you are not wrong...but expect to be made the scapegoat for the demise of all the toilet paper and for the theft of all the savings...the spin will blame the 'loons' for having caused the run on the banks. You will be run out... of what's left of town...and those who really did cause the end of time will promote themselves as the future leaders prepared to devote their time and energy to ensure the greater good for all.

by Christov | 2nd Sep 10, 11:14am 1283382853

Anon......... almost every comment you see here will have a vested interest bias ....including mine.

by Wolly | 2nd Sep 10, 11:14am 1283382891

Yesssss....and are you going to invest some munny anon!....are you willing to put your own munny on the table....a bet against those who predict an end for the toilet paper? All you have to do is buy heaps of long term USgovt bonds. Just takes a phone call anon!

by Rob of the North | 2nd Sep 10, 11:23am 1283383423

Wally is always agitated...you would be too if you'd had the hard life he has...quite sad really!

anyway here we have it direct to Wallyworld:

Yessirree..The wind is blowing in a different more positive direction today with a strong rebound in global equity markets. The US market has had its best day in 8 weeks rallying circa 3%. (Whilst I am reminded market rallies are always built on shaky foundations….the direction from here is still suggesting cautious range trading with buying on dips being rewarded eg BHP<$38.00 and only in key sectors and themes such as the emerging market consumer, agriculture, water, dividend stories and energy)

Short covering in banks is noticeable (as is the better bank commentary now coming from a variety of analysts). This has the potential to continue.The rally came from better US August ISM news. The July construction and the August ADP labour figures were somewhat disappointing but investors ignored them.

The final Eurozone manufacturing PMI at 55.1 was in line with the flash estimate. Germany is now showing some moderation in momentum. France was better. The Swiss PMI was down sharply.

So there..and not a CAPLOCK in sight!

rock on elves

by Wolly | 2nd Sep 10, 11:33am 1283384011

How nice of you to care Rob...I note you qualify your market enthusiam (shaky foundations)!

I am pleased to be out of copper even though it has spiked to $7600....the top is as difficult to pick as the bottom. Now there remains the task of where to move the loot. Made all the easier having read the stuff from the 'sauce' to discover the RBA is soon to ram 75 basis points onto the rate over there. Now what will that do the kiwi/aus cross me thinks. Wait for the gap to open I say. What would you do?

by Christov | 2nd Sep 10, 12:28pm 1283387298

There is no need for you to depart the site anony..........As Rob O North said.....you will have your detractors as they have you.................

from time to time you have lost your rag as have we all for different reasons on different days....but............... it is all.....banter after all and no grudges held.

You are the bullish pi.... and that has it's place in the mix of things......you are easily recognised and that gives you personality.........

I may not agree with your stand on things............. but I respect your commitment and understand your frustration.

Personally I hope you sign up....get a bigger chin..... but if not good luck to you in your choice of paths.

by ex agent | 2nd Sep 10, 11:47am 1283384843

I agree with you Anon,it is currently a terrible investment. Values of houses in NZ are going to slip away each month over the next five to ten years and we are going to see when it finishes values that people will not perceive as being possible at this stage. It will be great for my and your children as they will be able to buy houses without our help.

by ex agent | 2nd Sep 10, 12:08pm 1283386081

sorry Anon. I cashed up a large portfolio in 2007/2008 as I saw the writing on the wall. No longer working as I do not need to,no tenants which is great and just enjoying the fact I was correct in following what the analysts and advisors said I should do. I speak to colleagues daily and it is getting worse by the month for them and vendors. The long awaited drop in prices is slowly grinding up momentum and it is about to get into second gear. Hold on. There will be blood on the floor from investors who are over committed in debt. The banks will not muck around.

by Rob of the North | 2nd Sep 10, 12:04pm 1283385840

i don't know why posters like "anon(s)" are writing their farewell notes?

all you have to do is register on this site as a commenter before sept 12, give yourself a online name like i have and carry on...it's how it was before this site was upgraded!

why do you think Wally calls himself Wolly?

cause he is one.. and also someone else has pinched/registered his name....

by Christov | 2nd Sep 10, 12:31pm 1283387467

Anon.............there has never been one to beat ...........A Peek at the Sea........ that is achieved by standing on the toilet bowl and opening the louvers.

by Christov | 2nd Sep 10, 2:54pm 1283396040

Nicely put.....!.. ExS

by ex agent | 2nd Sep 10, 1:36pm 1283391367

Because when you are in sales and especially if you are good at it you start to believe your own press and you are incapable of being objective. That is the problem in NZ, a lot of people in the industry and the investors think property is a sure thing. I can assure you it isn't and that is now being played out in the market. As QV said in August spring is not going to fix it this year and we have more drops to come over the next few months. Even Tony Alexander is putting out the date for recovery to occur.It is years away and if you need or want to sell then do it now as prices are going to keep falling for some time. There is not one positive factor out there at present to support property prices in NZ including farms and commercials. We are still in very cautious times. People are just coping with their existing debts and cost of living expenses.

by ex agent | 2nd Sep 10, 2:29pm 1283394599

Sorry Anon , I just took advantage of the market and sold a very successful agency at the top. Why work when you do not need to. You might just be suprised how many agents are currently leaving and how many agencies are closing or selling at reduced values from 2008. When I talk about advisors I am talking about my lawyer and accountant which is only normal business practice. I was not a failure and still have very good contacts in the industry who are only too happy to tell me how bad it is and how worse it is getting by the month. You sound like one of the many struggling agents who are currently wondering why the heck they are in the industry which is only going to get worse. Maybe you should be looking for a new job.

by ex agent | 2nd Sep 10, 2:56pm 1283396172

You can attack me as much as you like anon. The facts speak for themselves. It peaked in 2007, I got rid of some of them then and the last ones in 2008. Next weeks figures from QV will confirm just how strong the buyers position currently is and it is getting better by the month. Just because I got out does not make me a failure. Is Sam Morgan a failure because he sold Trade Me. I got offered fantastic money which I would not get now. I do not need to work just like Sam Morgan. I can play around with new ideas and ventures and do non paid work on community boards. What is wrong with that. Better than sitting in an office watching nothing happening and wondering what is going to happen if things do not improve. There are very few agents in NZ curently making a living like they used to. Are you in fact one of them.

by David George | 2nd Sep 10, 3:32pm 1283398373

Anon "I am not attacking you personally................... or is it community work for your convictions?"

Nasty and uncalled for Anon, ex agent has been totally reasonable and not offensive in his comments. You anons are all the same.

by ex agent | 2nd Sep 10, 3:37pm 1283398670

I am not bitter and I am not anti property anon. Otherwise I would have sold my home. I believe I am just being honest and realistic. Property is a good investment but just like shares it is all about timing. Now is not a good time to be in it. Cash is currently king. People who have bought property since 2007 have the risk of losing money if they sell it now and that is going to get worse for them. Why would you buy in a dropping market? I could no longer look people in the eyes and tell them to get stuck into property as an investment. But that is what agents are still doing. I think they need to examine their consciences a bit more if they have one.

by expat | 2nd Sep 10, 11:02pm 1283425350

Having read through the 80% of dross on this thread I'd side with ex-agent. 2007 approx. sept was the peak of the market and it has all been downhill since then.

All the numbers and trends point to continuing inventory growth as vendors still have rocks in their heads with respect price expectations and many are unwilling to negotiate on price even though they advertise PBN. Additionally liquidity is shot as vendors can't sell so can't buy onwards and the banks arent lending. This is key, unrealistic pricing and f all liquidity = no price discovery so no-one is really sure how low prices are (and they are lower than is being reported with 'medians'.).

How do I know? Simple, have been looking seriously at buying and after having made reasonable cash offers on property which have been rejected have concluded that the best place to be is sitting on he sidelines collecting interest on my money and waiting for vendors to get real.

It's interesting to watch the vendors who used to have cash offers on the table continue to wait with their houses on the market.

It ain't pretty out there for vendors and once the herd breaks on pricing the whole market will drop. Real estate agents must be the game changers this spring otherwise 50% will be out of jobs.

by Kunst | 2nd Sep 10, 5:17pm 1283404650

Is the car (VW) still in running order - no burst tyres, removed engine or windscreen wipers not working ? It seems the previous owner, Alan H. had some issues there.