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90 seconds at 9 am with BNZ: Hobbit saved as Key fights 'dirty' in currency wars; QE II may be lite rather than heavy; NZ$ and A$ down vs US$

90 seconds at 9 am with BNZ: Hobbit saved as Key fights 'dirty' in currency wars; QE II may be lite rather than heavy; NZ$ and A$ down vs US$
28th Oct 10, 8:49am by Bernard Hickey

Bernard Hickey details the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am in association with Bank of New Zealand, including news Warner Brothers has decided to make two Hobbit films in New Zealand.

The government announced a deal overnight to grant up to NZ$34 million of tax breaks to Warner Brothers and to rewrite employment laws to clarify the difference between employees and contractors in the film industry.

However this saves NZ$670 million worth of spending on movie making in New Zealand.

I think John Key was right to do the 'impure' thing and fight dirty to keep that export spending in New Zealand and to keep those hundreds of highly paid and highly skilled jobs at the Weta Workshops and Weta Digital film complexes in Wellington.

Meanwhile, Wall Street got nervous overnight about the size of the next round of Quantitative Easing expected next Thursday. The Wall St Journal reported that the so-called QE II due to  be announced after the November 3 meeting of the US Federal Reserve's Open Markets Committee meeting may only be in the hundreds of billions rather than the US$500 billion to US$1 trillion expected previously.

The Dow fell more than 100 points in late trade and the US dollar strengthened.

The New Zealand dollar fell to 74.2 USc and the Australian dollar fell even more steeply to around 97 USc. See interactive charts below.

One extra weakening factor for the Australian dollar was weaker than expected inflation figures yesterday which called into question the likelihood of a rate hike in Australia on Melbourne Cup day next Tuesday.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave the Official Cash Rate on hold at 3% at 9am.

No chart with that title exists.

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38 Comments

by  Andrewj  |  28th Oct 10, 9:06am 1288210017
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by  Kunst  |  28th Oct 10, 9:16am 1288210571

Not only Hobbit is save also the coming summer tourists season - with currently extremely strong bookings. If the strong desire of overseas tourists to escape stress and uncertainty is reflected in additional spending – we have to wait and see.

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by  Gummy Bear Hero  |  28th Oct 10, 1:31pm 1288225860

One would think that Helen Kelly (CTU) would have the grace to say , thanks to John Key , for cleaning up the mess that she contributed to . But no ! She is lambasting Key for having the temerity of wanting to fix the employment law . Key's wish is that an individual know immediately upon signing on , whether they are classified as an employee , or a contractor . John Key has been blasted by Helen Kelly for being opportunistic in attacking workers rights .

Geeeeeeez , what a fecking cow , she is !

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by  speckles  |  28th Oct 10, 9:33am 1288211637

BH

Hobbitt - up to 34 million additional funding still the 15% which was already in place...need to work the numbers............

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  28th Oct 10, 10:12am 1288213926

BH- maybe you're not as smart as I thought you were.

There is a Parliamentary report on the table, re Peak Oil.

It is dire in its predictions, yet it is only based on the IEA 'data'.

Slide 7 from the IEA, shows a red wedge, hand-pixelled in, an exponentially-increasing item entitled "yet to be discovered oil".

Oil discoveries peaked - resoundingly - in 1964.

There is no corroborating justification for that wedge, and if I tried to include it in a PhD, I would expect it to be shot down by my Prof, due to lack of both data, and of peer-reviewing.

So it's worse than the Report makes out, and the Report cites 2012 as the start of the downturn. That's without taking into consideration the increasing internal demand in exporting countries, and without considering the reduced EROEI as we dig down into the dregs.

The Hobbit issue - regardless of the decision - is a pointless diversion. We're seriously out of time for addressing infrastructure issues, in light of expected reductions in energy availability. Also pointless are discussions of the RWC, growth, GDP, etc.

When the glass is down to half-full, you're entering the last doubling-time of them all. Actually, to be precise, you've passed that point. In chewing into the last half, all you can hope to do at best, is equal all that has gone before.

Is it so hard to understand?

Hobbit schmobbit.

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by  anonentity  |  28th Oct 10, 11:47am 1288219661

    It's simple??..plenty of oil= cheap as chips....not much oil=price rises..We've seen the price of a litre of petrol go up big time in the last five years. Our whole way of life depends on this stuff being affordable our whole economy and personal wealth is so intertwined with this polluting muck, you would have thought, we would have taken the next leap way beyond now.

  I see Obama is filling the Emergency tanks.The national reserves,in Louisiana and Florida can hold 120 million gallons, and they are filling at an unprecedented rate...why?..because very shortly the Gulf of Hormuz might very well be closed. Another aircraft carrier has taken up its position of off Iran.....This has been planned for years..also drone strikes in Afghanistan have increased by fifty percent in the last month.The Drone strikes have increased in Pakistan as well..with rumours that the country is getting unstable and might not be able to manage its nukes in a responsible way..Something big is brewing, and it aint peace and love.

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  28th Oct 10, 12:22pm 1288221779

There's another way to look at price -

if oil underwrites activity in a straight-line graph (it does) then wealth-underwriting will dwindle as supply does.

So it may show up as reduced incomes, but the same $-per-barrel numbers.

Comes to the same thing relatively, of course.........

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by  Gummy Bear Hero  |  28th Oct 10, 1:05pm 1288224336

PDK : How " smart " did you think BH was previously , and how " smart " do you think he is now ?

Why this decreasing margin of smartness in our venerable leader ?

Is his level of smartness going to power down at an accelerating rate , or is it a steady line on the graph ?

At what point do you believe that Bernard will hit rock bottom in smarts ? At absolute zero , do we average power down and buy more , or just cart the lad off to the loony bin ?

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by  steven  |  28th Oct 10, 12:58pm 1288223880

What difference does topping up the tanks make? so the US has say 120 days supply instead of 90 days  (does NZ get to 90?)  ?

Once the hormuz straight is cut, then the share markets will collapse....oil will shoot to a silly amount and we will in terms of the global economy be in deep deep poo....

The fact that Americans will have 120 days to contemplate their fate while NZ only has (at most 90) isnt much of a factor....really...is it?   I mean (say) Thailand has the rice and Japan does not, where with that 90 day limit does the fuel oil come from?  even if it is / was available who organises that delivery of fuel to the right place at the right time to ensure food gets shipped?  There is no organisation in place to see that work....

Will Obama invade iran? he could but why? the cost of Afgan and Iraq conquest is crippling the USA now so a thrid country? There are signs that they want their "partners" such as NZ and OZ to take over more of the load now let alone a third  Also its not just the cost in $, everybody loves to shoot an American it seems....and the casulties are adding up....and that spells political grief......lets see what Secetary Clinton has to say....

Pakistani Govn almost went under when oil got to $147 a barrel last time, what was keeping them afloat was discounted oil from Saudi....if saudi ant get it out then ouch...

Well I can walk to work.....food is a worry though....

regards

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by  Gertraud T.  |  28th Oct 10, 1:16pm 1288224992

About high time to start thinking.

Chris Martenson and a lot of others are doing this for the last 2 years.

http://www.chrismartenson.com/blog/what-should-i-do-basics-resilience-p…

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by  anonentity  |  28th Oct 10, 2:51pm 1288230713

   Yeh but remember oil is quoted in US.dollars..If the Straits get cut, the darkest scenario is oil reaching US 800 dollars a barrel. Russia will be laughing,or getting worried as they are calling the Black sea..the "American sea"..which is a bit too close to their oil fields for comfort.

  Kiwiland has one refinery..and pumps oil..in storage we have about three months supply.As Australia is self sufficient,we might not have to much to worry about."Think big" was about future oil shocks so it might be about to pay off,and save us from the worst of it.

  This build up in the Gulf is the biggest since D Day..

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by  Mark  |  28th Oct 10, 12:26pm 1288221986

How's the tin foil hat coming along?

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  28th Oct 10, 12:34pm 1288222451

on reflection?

I'm going to sell it.

Call it 'Cap and Trade'.

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by  steven  |  28th Oct 10, 12:59pm 1288223988

Hows the head in the sand coming along ? blocking your nose yet?

regards

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by  steven  |  28th Oct 10, 1:08pm 1288224480

URL?

I found some stuff at a site entitled,

Parliamentary support  -  Research papers

http://www.parliament.nz/CmsSystem/Templates/Documents/DetailedListing…{49FF0F99-E1F9-4392-A942-E3363661A88C}

and the headings there are pretty clear,

"Oil is “the lifeblood of modern civilisation”. This paper provides an overview of the global oil market. In particular, it examines the outlook for oil supply and demand over the next five years, and the economic consequences."

"Low-cost reserves of oil are being rapidly exhausted, forcing oil companies to turn to more expensive sources of oil. This replacement of low-cost sources of oil with higher-costs sources is driving the price of oil higher."

So its not just that our Pollies are ignoring what we or external bodies are trying to tell them but their own research organisation...You would think we'd see some urgency in actions taking place like "sudden" grants to study alternatives....or $ for "pilot schemes" yet we see nothing? I know its Brownlee, but still.

regards

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  28th Oct 10, 2:18pm 1288228696

www.parliament.nz/en-NZ/P…41-The-next-oil-shock.htm

by someone called Clint Smith.

He misses EROEI and the Export Land Model, and fails completely to get exponential math, but it's a stolid start.

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by  Rob of the North  |  28th Oct 10, 10:19am 1288214385

Fred Dagg said " we don't know how lucky we are"

I think he probably had Johnny Key in mind....occasionally the right person comes along and he has!

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  28th Oct 10, 10:56am 1288216589

Were, Rob.

How lucky we were.

Past tense.

Just for the -ha- record, the song came out half-way between the publucations of the 'Limits to Growth' and 'Overshoot'. There's no excuse tfor politicians at this point, to be so continuedly ignorant.

Have a good 'un.

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by  Rob of the North  |  28th Oct 10, 11:08am 1288217319

Maybe baby..

Buddy Holly

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  28th Oct 10, 11:33am 1288218830

Buddy can you spare a dime

Yip Harburg

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by  Rob of the North  |  28th Oct 10, 4:36pm 1288237014

Sorry..I cover the nightbeat for the Daily.

Randy Stone

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  28th Oct 10, 7:38pm 1288247935

Rock on

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by  Boatman  |  28th Oct 10, 10:44am 1288215842

Did anyone read Mark Weldon's remarks in the Herald . I have no sympathy for him. We should integrate with the ASX as soon as practically possible. This nonsense of trying to build a little empire in New Zealand when we are part of a globalised world is just that .... nonsense .

Furthermore we may see better Corporate Governance and compliance and less rouge-ish behaviour if New Zealand executives have to comply with Australia's rigorous Securities legislation .

The time has come for the NZX to adapt or die.  

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by  Vera Fayed  |  28th Oct 10, 11:13am 1288217624

100% agree with you on that one Boatman and the sooner the better.

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by  Gummy Bear Hero  |  28th Oct 10, 1:11pm 1288224676

Weldon needs to clean up his act . Rubbish 'like Feltex and Hanover-Allied Farmers should never have been allowed listing .

He needs to drastically lower the costs of retaining a listing . And the merge the NZAX into the NZX proper .

Then the silly fecker needs to get busy , and try to drum up more companies to seek listing on the NZX , to grow the beastie .

[ be easier if Weldon was arsed out , and someone competent put in ]

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by  realist  |  28th Oct 10, 11:06am 1288217160

John Armstrongs comments in the NZ hash this morning, "we rolled over for Warner Bros", negative prat....what choice did we have ....thankyou  the trade union movement....Key got us as good a deal as we were ever going to get.

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by  Fairfax O Rouke  |  28th Oct 10, 1:53pm 1288227180

Yeah, and bring back some nuclear powered ships while we have given up standing up for ourselves.

The trade Unions were shown to be the archaic dinosaurs they have become, inept and out manouvered superbly.

Hey we want you to change that annoying law that says we have to pay sick and holiday pay.

Sure no problem, here is an extra $30 mill on top of the other $65mill for your coffers.

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by  Kunst  |  28th Oct 10, 11:49am 1288219756

I better wait before making a hasty judgment. I’m not sure if “Key’s Deals” are solid enough for NZ – substantiated long term. The current time is certainly challenging and because of silly mistakes of some  - an emergency deal –  perhaps unavoidable.

Hobbit deal costs New Zealand changes in labour laws and $25m tax break.

Full article:  http://www.guardian.co.uk/film/2010/oct/27/the-hobbit-deal-new-zealand

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by  Andrewj  |  28th Oct 10, 11:58am 1288220280

Ilargi: Now of course we must realize that in a market place where 70% of stocks are held for all of 11 seconds before being sold off again, things can happen that appear irrational, and we should ponder who purchases negative interest rate bonds and why. Still, there are those who feel that Bernanke's FOMC QE2 announcement next Wednesday will push up the consumer price index to levels which make these TIPS a profitable investment.

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/

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by  Andrewj  |  28th Oct 10, 11:58am 1288220280

Ilargi: Now of course we must realize that in a market place where 70% of stocks are held for all of 11 seconds before being sold off again, things can happen that appear irrational, and we should ponder who purchases negative interest rate bonds and why. Still, there are those who feel that Bernanke's FOMC QE2 announcement next Wednesday will push up the consumer price index to levels which make these TIPS a profitable investment.

http://theautomaticearth.blogspot.com/

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by  Les Rudd  |  28th Oct 10, 12:24pm 1288221845
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by  Gertraud T.  |  28th Oct 10, 2:32pm 1288229565

As every endeavor to have a stable economic base boils down to have the means to sustain life's necessities, I think it is important to consider developments impairing our food sustainability.  Apart from lack of energy for transporting food, the other danger is genetically modified  seeds. It appears one can fight this only at a country level and not as an individual.

http://www.kpfa.org/archive/show/34 (or http://www.kpfa.org/archive/id/64647)

Percy Schmeiser, the Saskatchewan farmer and seed developer who fought Monsanto - and lost. Schmeisers case resultet in the Canadian Supreme Court ruling which essentially said that Monsanto's patents allows Monsanto to own and control higher life forms, such as Canola, Wheat etc. and regardless how it got into your field, Monsanto now owns your "contaminated" crops.

In this excellent interview, Schmeiser, now 77 years old, recounts the history of his case and discusses the wider implications of GMO contamination of the food chain.  What Schmeiser was put through was truly outragious. However, the Federal and Provincial government did nothing in response to the Court's ruling to help protect the farmers.

Monsanto does not need a patent to own and control the politicians, it seems. As Schmeisers case shows all you need is one neighbour to sign an agreement to use Montanto's GMO seed and the contamination of all surrounding fields  becomes inevitable. Then you become a patent infringer and Monsanto goes after you for damages. Most farmers settle out of court because of the cost of defending themselves is just too high.

That's what made Schmeiser exceptional and a hero in my eyes.

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by  Gertraud T.  |  28th Oct 10, 2:34pm 1288229683

The above link and comments are a citation of comments of "bigger-crash-watcher" at Chris Martensons blog from 26.10.10

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by  powerdownkiwi  |  28th Oct 10, 7:46pm 1288248361

I saw something similar a while back, the CEO of Nestle being interviewed

"people who say water is a right, are 'bangers on'. Water is a commodity to be traded, like everything else".

And on about "if you can't afford it, you'll have to work more".

We can just hope that the collapse of the fiscal system will keep these folk off balance. I suspect the thirsty and the hungry may turn into angry mobs, regardless.

May you live in interesting times.

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by  Kate  |  28th Oct 10, 8:23pm 1288250602

Another example of what David Harvey has coined "Accumulation by dispossession".

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by  Wolly  |  28th Oct 10, 4:09pm 1288235352

Herald report of another survey...Rabo no less....farmer confidence is heading down....someone at Rabo will get their hand smacked over releasing that bit of news!...love the picture...must be worth a million at least...wonder how many bedrooms there are....looks like at least 10 acres!

 http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10683678

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by  Gareth Vaughan  |  28th Oct 10, 4:26pm 1288236361
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by  Rob of the North  |  28th Oct 10, 4:39pm 1288237175

Keep it up Wolly...you're bloggin in a straight line and started making sense...soon you'll have a following and then you can start your site...maybe disnterest.co.nz..or something like that?...we'll all be there,man!

happy days,pooter boy!

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