Bernard Hickey details the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am in association with Bank of New Zealand, including news that Chinese authorities have moved to tighten monetary policy for the second time in two weeks.
This follows a surge in inflation in October and November, partly in response to the jump in commodity prices that has been associated with the US Federal Reserve's moves to devalue the world's reserve currency through a fresh bout of Quantitative Easing or Money Printing.
Chinese food price inflation was 10% in October from a year ago, but it surged again early in November.
A basket of the prices of 16 common vegetables in China rose 62% in the first 10 days of November from a year ago. Garlic prices rose 96% and ginger prices rose 90%.
A sharp slowdown in the Chinese economy would have implications for both the Australian and New Zealand economies, which rely on China directly and indirectly for much of their export revenue.
Meanwhile, Ireland is expected to formally request a bailout for its banks from the European Union and International Monetary Fund later today in an attempt to stop contagion through the peripheral economies of the Eurozone, including Portual, Italy, Spain and Greece.
Allied Irish Banks has lost 17% of its deposits this year and a bailout is seen necessary to stop a collapse of Ireland's banks, who owe tens of billions of euros to UK and European banks.
Meanwhile, back in New Zealand, the Securities Commission announced on Friday afternoon it is considering laying criminal charges against directors of Hanover Finance. Those directors could include Mark Hotchin, who has returned to New Zealand, and Greg Muir, who was an independent chairman of Hanover.
Muir withdrew his re-election bid for the role as chairman of Pumpkin Patch later on Friday after the Securities Commission announcement. See more here.
No chart with that title exists.
59 Comments
Is this an eye opener or just more smoke!
Actually it's less smoke. Wally. That's the problem. We forced food production and supply with one thing, and one thing only - an increasing supply of oil. Essentially, food is energy (try going without it) and food-chains are energy chains.
Just because a species has a high opinion of itself, doesn't change that.
We have just taken an easy supply of long-stored energy, and used it to force food supply - essentially we've been eating oil, a temporary item, but increasing the mouths needing feeding concurrently.
So, when it peaked (and what we were bleating on about for years is now officially acknowledged - suggesting we knew what we were talking about) so too did the cheapness of food. Also - and I seem to be the only person to make the connection here, where's the media? - we have peaked global longevity.
For the first time in recorded history, longevity peaked and sequentially dropped, peak in 2007. Peak oil in 2006. Join the dots.
And if you say "that's because of the recession", I'll say "and that's because of?"
I can outline this via a different route PDK.
Year 1 the History of Architecture. All civilisations have existed because of a surplus of food. Excess food meant being able to have people in non productive roles such as an army or building temples.
Now I am not sure if statistics would support this, but it comes ex a fertiliser company CFO. World population was capped at 2 billion until the discovery of nitrogen in 1879.
Main source of nitrogen = oil.
Only question really is how is depopulation going to happen.
Andy
You are splitting hairs here, gas is a fossil fuel used extensively as a replacement for oil burning since the 70's, also the original haber-bosch process probably used gasified coal (and still does in some places), the sad thing is it actually reacts hydrogen with nitrogen, so is an ideal process for electrification, of course gas is cheap.
The whole substitution process of gas for coal, coal for oil, gas for oil is simply re-arranging deck chairs IMHO
Neven
Neven - you are mistaking me for someone who is non-peakoil aware.
Pointing out a scientific fact (that most nitrogenous fertilizers are produced using methane rather than oil) is hardly hair splitting. It is the reality.
I posted in response to the comment:
'Main source of nitrogen = oil'.
By the same token giving cornucopians easy ammunition (such as 'facts' which are easily knocked down - as the nitrogen = oil comment above is) doesn't help the case either as it merely enables them to state - "Well that supposid truth was easily shot down, ergo the rest of the resource depletion story is also bullsh*t".
Know thine enemy.
I think you will find that initially population started to increase from the time of the industrial revolution?....instead of human and animal power we had fossil fuel power...in a short period of time we had more excess energy so more specialised ppl could be supported and population also grew as there was more food. I think though when you look at artifical fertilizers there will be a significant effect....it would be interesting to chart this, and probably the biggest effects are post-WW2, before that I would have guseed that anywhere outside of the developed world would have been organic.
How depopulation will occur is indeed the Q.
If the price increases were gradual I suspose the population decline would also be gradual, however everyone I read says prices are likely to be highly volitile and supply swing significantly. Then throw in AGW which is causing not only gradual climate change but bigger and wilder swings in weather and we start to look at serious and more frequent crop failures....people will move to look for food....and if you are starving there is nothing to lose a bullet is a quicker way to go than starvation. Looking back at July 2008 it was pretty ugly, but now this has to be considered on a bigger scale...Pakistan for instance was near collapse and was kept going by Saudi selling discounted oil and they have nuclear weapons...
In terms of 2 billion there is also the over-shoot plus damage to the natural system ( so it naturally supports less) that is occuring from over-population.....so <2Billion is quite possible...
regards
Yest he increase in population started earlier, that was because of coal/steam and mechanisation moving into agriculture, but there was still a natural cap that was it was going to hit.
Coal, being twice or more the energy of wood, was of course supplanted by oil which is twice as dense again:)
funny you should say that Steven....The Pope has just yesterday sanctioned the use of condoms to stop the spread of AIDS.......step one.....this is a huge step for the Vatican an will be handled with a great deal of face saving cream.
But at least now even they know the numbers have to come down.
From the good book of Python : " Every sperm is sacred / Every sperm is great / If a sperm is wasted / God gets quite irate ! "
Stop spilling yours' upon the dusty ground , team ! Just learn a little self control and overpopulation will be solved ............... Oi , Christov ! Hands out of your pockets , boy .
GBH there is scarcely enough room for me to have my hands in my pockets while they are occupied by Billy Bob's.....Browny boy's.....and their minions.
On the ground would be uncouth....convention dictates that you turn your favourite book into a slab of cardboard laminate.
A good read Wally and goes a long way to confirm my suspicions of the last year or so about the motives of the Fed ....and those holding vested interests in ...the Fed and green-back economy in general.......
We all know if QE2 was a plan it was a shit plan.....the leaks that are appearing are small indicators that QE2 itself was not the .........PLAN.....but more likely a necessary instrument to platform on ...
The legal theft of a generation or two's wealth in order to attempt a rebalancing of the global economy....still seems to me the most probable scenario......unthinkable ..? not any more ...for me anyway.
You may have noticed a general trend of the last two years of Reserve Banks issuing statements of directional policy and then acting in a completely contrary manner.......our own included.......coincidence I think not.
Yes thanks Wally.
A few more whys would have helped.
Where/who are the Bernanke apologists?
Those who 'understand' what he is doing, the ones 'in the know'?
Those who speculate on the long term outcomes of his actions, 'the plan' .
To simply conclude that QE2 isn't really 'stimulus' seems to sell the reader short.
The general consensus that Bernanke is a fool also seems to sell the reader short (easy option...).
I am a Bernanke apologist ! Truely , I am so sorry that Ben , and more particularly his predecessor Alan Greenspan , ever got their sticky mitts onto the levers of control at the US Federal Reverse ............... Oh Paul Volcker , where fore art thou , why hast thou foresaken us ?
Bernanke is just 'winging ' it KWJ...I see the US military hasn't a clue what shot into space off the californy coast last week....I have it on good authority from a mate of mine name E that it was an alien ship returning to port having dropped off a probe to monitor the 2012 impact....
Pills from Stills!
" Sooner or later people need to realize that progress will only become a reality when the person you see in the mirror at night is a better human being than when he got out of bed that same morning. Institutions whether they are political, educational, social or religious will all fail you because of the general lack of quality found in the average person today. That decline in quality is intentional and a result of government policies implemented over a very long period of time, and designed to produce an ignorant form of human “mule” bred to pull the cart of society for a not so benevolent master. The mule is replaceable, expendable, and his well-being matters not to the master. There is always another mule out there to take his place. That’s the world we face today and it’s my hope that there are still a reasonable number of none mules in the world that can make a difference. It will not be an easy struggle."
The Ping is a rather long river in Western Thailand . In 2005 heavy rainfall in the hills around the river , caused it to surge across the floodplains around the city of Chang Mai . Andrewj's cryptic " when will the dam bust " may refer to the excess precipitation in the area of the farms he is alluding to , in NZ .
Def : To be pinged : verb : excess flow of water across an alluvial plain .
To Ping has a number of meanings .. the probable meaning here is derived from computer communications jargon where the Microsoft software enables identification of the existence of another node by reaching out and touching it - in other words the proverbial tap on the shoulder ..
The Irish Times reports the EU and IMF have approved Ireland's bailout request.
http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/breaking/2010/1121/breaking26.html
Taoiseach Brian Cowen tonight confirmed the European Union has agreed to Government request for financial aid package from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund.
European finance ministers held an emergency conference call tonight to consider a Cabinet request for aid, during which the application was approved.
Speaking at a press conference in Government Buildings in Dublin with Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan tonight, Mr Cowen said the rescue package, which will run for three years, will be tied to a restructuring of the banks and a deficit reduction plan.
Mr Lenihan admitted for the first time the banks had become too big a problem for the country to resolve on its own. “The key issue all the time for the Government is to ensure that we do not have a collapse of the banking sector."
Hello, hello, wot's all this then, Hickey and Pellet challenging the 'status quo':
http://www.fabians.org.nz/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=111:time-for-a-complete-rethink&catid=1:latest-news&Itemid=54 Today in Wellington, starts 5.30pm. Friday 27th in Auckland, starts 6.00pm. Why the challenge: http://www.mea.org.nz/documents/874-meactive_november_2010.pdf.
"The table [hit the link] shows that New Zealand’s exchange rate is 25 percent overvalued against the US dollar, the highest of the countries included. The table also shows that it is not solely a US dollar depreciation story with the Euro only 5.7 percent overvalued and even the Australian dollar was only 17.5 percent overvalued.
So far we have seen some cost cutting and minimal tax reform from the Government. This has been helpful but when the tradeable economy has seen n growth in five years more effective measures are required. Policy changes around tax balance, monetary policy and innovation are needed to stimulate the turnaround.
The Government’s advisors need to be more forthright in their advice. The 2025 Taskforce has been focused more on explaining differences between Australia and New Zealand than coming up with solutions. Government departments such as the Treasury and the Reserve Bank also need to be more forthright with their recommendations.
The tax balance was hotly contested in the Tax Working Group’s report with a Land Tax being one option and Don Brash has mentioned before that a variable excise tax could be used to quell domestic inflation. These are the sort of ideas that need discussion, not offhand dismissal. Imbalances in the economy will continue and significant investment in export growth is unlikely while the exchange rate is a policy loose end."
Give those 'world best practice' (yeah right) TINAs hell guys.
TARA, Les.
www.mea.org.nzActually gummy..the Castle Hotel on the Ping river in Cambo. is de rigeur.
anyway here's the overview of our fair planet according to the money gods?
The theme of distortion being created by greater global government and central bank involvement short circuiting markets looks to an ongoing key cause of volatility and uncertainty into 2011:
- Ireland is set to become the second Euro member to see a rescue from the EU and the IMF. Irish Finance Minister Lenihan said “The banks were too big a problem for the country. The key issue all the time for the government is to ensure that we do not have a collapse of the banking sector.” (Bloomberg) Whilst the initial focus will be on bank recapitalization any package is likely to also be used to secure the general financing of the Irish government. Irelands 12.5% corporate tax rate (the lowest in the OECD) is likely to be moved higher CS remain optimistic the Greek/Irish problems will not spread to Spain with Spain having: (1)healthier banks, (2) significant progress on deficit reduction, (3) evidence of a more resilient economy, (4)a reduction on its reliance on foreign borrowing. (CS stress it’s not a case of doing well- but rather doing better)
- Bernanke’s Frankfurt speech defended the Fed’s QE programme given high unemployment and low inflation in the US. He criticized EM FX interventions which he said prevented global rebalancing. Capital inflows into EM currencies was occurring because investors anticipate a future alignment on the EM currencies with their fundamental value.
- China raised bank Reserve Requirements 50bp for the second time in 2 weeks to an all time high of 18.5% but did not increase interest rates as expected (for perspective the rate was circa 8% until 2006) Price control measures are also being set to be implemented to rein in inflation. The distortion between supply and demand means CS think Chinese inflationary pressures will remain.
- Korea to re-impose 14% withholding tax on foreigners' bond earnings.
- Russia will double an export tariff on nickel to 10 percent (UBS)
- Warren Buffett said that rich people should pay more in taxes and that Bush-era tax cuts for top earners should be allowed to expire at the end of December.
I think Warren was probably referring to that Lotus Eater in the Phils. known as the Gummy one!
An revealing interview on nine to noon this morning http://www.radionz.co.nz/national/programmes/ninetonoon describing some brutal practices, "are banks pressuring farmers".
What are the interest rates being charged? Are the rates slowly being racked up citing "losses" that need to be covered.
The screws are tightened as the CEO's party up (that Westpac character)
Meanwhile, wait to see the effects of the BNZ's proceeds from their covered bond sales.
Interesting report on Insight yesterday (to be repeated tonight) about the economic impact of big budget movies including some serious input from Berl's Ganesh Nana:
Some snippets:
Subsidies to Avatar + King Kong resulted in net economic loss of $36m.
Re impact on tourism, of 5,000 tourists interviewed in 2004 only 1% said LOTR was the main reason they chose NZ as a tourist destination i.e. insignificant when compared to the exchange rate impact.
Comment from UK "film industry expert" Keith Randall: "don't get too excited when Hollywood moves to your country because it may not be around for very long"
Off we go with another week where the banks farm the families and milk the economy...all great fun with heaps of laughs over the gin at the old boys club...Bolly doing his bit pushing the covered bond route to cheap hot money...poodle media there to print the spin and BS...banking buddies collecting the happy comments for another survey on the 'recovery'.
Always another "mule to pull the cart"...Stills got that right.
The 'non mules' know to get out of the carts way especially when it's carrying a massive fat Elephant .
How will depopulation occur.
Perhaps time to read "Collapse" by Professor Jared Diamond especially the chapter on Burundi.
I have often wondered why smaller ethnic groups living within larger more powerful societies seem to insist on retaining their seperate cultural identities. Long term survival is surely most probable if one's gene pool is hidden within the common herd.
When the masses are rioting in the streets one does not want tp appear 'different'.
The future is surely going to be an extreme test of multiculturalism in the western world.
Hugh will be onto this.
Aucklanders are facing hardship in retirement because they can't afford to buy a house, a new report warns.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10688598&ref=emailfriend
Heck that would be a challenge to find out. Yes I believe you are correct though, but a more interesting proposition is one I came across a while back, and that is family assistance. In effect that props up the minimum wage and therefore means more money available to pay rent.
But I think the reverse is going to happen as unemployment increases. As a gloomster I think that 25% UE would not be untoward in a year or two:) As more people move to a lower income bracket then less money become available for rent. What will that do for all the PI's out there.
What is really going to bite is that the MSD via WINZ changed the benefits a couple of years back under the new government, all in anticipation of the pending spike in UE. The special benefit used to prop up the inadequate accommodation supplement, but that has been replaced by the 'Temporary Additional Assistance' allowance. They expect people to sort their finances out within 3 months after they lose their job, hence the temporary. That is another $45 dollars per week or so less to pay rent.
It's above 25% in some sectors already scarfie....and the official % is just BS. I agree the benefits are propping up the rents .....and this measure then ensures the market for renters remains stable and prevents a collapse in the market....which in turn means the banks are safe and can carry on farming the families.....It will only be when the tenants all say "@**& this" and head for aus, a tent in the dunes or an old gutted bedford bus, that the game will end.
.... or if two to three families move in together. There is a precedent for that to.
Yeah UE figures a fudged alright.
Hey I have read comment on you being the guru on gold, what do you know of silver and what do you make of this chart?
http://www.silverinstitute.org/supply_demand.php
Shows the industrial use of silver has dropped and the investment percentage increased. So the price of silver is only being driven by people buying it hoping the price will go up. Or is it really a hedge against the collapse of Fiat money.
Here you go scarfie...this is it mate...hit the road running...hitch up a trailer and take the old lady along to do the cleanin and cookin..... http://www.trademe.co.nz/Trade-Me-Motors/Caravans-motorhomes/Motorhomes/9-metres-and-over/auction-330590425.htm
Hehe that would be the ticket, except for "but does not need much for a COF". Best to keep away from them if possible & stay with WOF. Perhaps I could put the Fischer Tropsch reactor I am thinking of building on the trailer eh?
I would get a alloy box body on a later model japper, then convert it myself. Sort of done it before and had a couple of great holidays in it. A mate then copied my idea and has done a tour of the SI in his with his family.
House boat my be more my style. Less regulations to deal with:)
Oh well in that case scarfie this is what you want...cheaper than a batch mate...check it out...really check it out!...... http://au.yachtworld.com/core/listing/photoGallery.jsp?ro=1&slim=quicknull&r=18541&checked_boats=18541&rs=yachtworld.com&boat_id=18541&back=/core/boats/1929/Pusey-&-Jones-Classic-Steel-Fantail-18541/United-States&boat_id=18541
Mate I will seriously be speaking to someone about that!
Mind you if I wait a bit it might go cheaper yet as who else is buying.Lol.
I also heard about five years back that you can pick up sixty metre ex fishing boats in Japan for about 100K. Main trouble there is they drink diesel like it is going out of fashion.
I could tell you a story about going up the Waikato last year but I have to tread carefully.
Trouble would be getting that boat back here. I suppose it might be possible to find a volunteer crew. Cleaning the hull would be a bit of work!
Hope Bernard doesn't mind us hijacking his site:)
Scarfie
The silver market has been rigged for over 20 years. This guy here http://www.zerohedge.com/article/chris-martenson-and-ted-butler-discuss… has been crusading about the corruption all of that time, only to be knocked back by the powers that be (move along nothing to see here). When the scam is exposed silver will go up.
Now what about gold you ask? . . . . .
Yep go on......
I watched that link this AM, but only made it halfway through as he talks so slow. I was designing something at the same time. Lol. But I think I read something from him a few weeks back.
But I am still wary and you hit the nail a few weeks back also. What if the yanks fix the price at $400oz.
Hmmm that boat. Think of the man hours embodied in that!
Edit(didn't look and thought it was Wolly.Oops)
BazzaMcKenzie 11 hours ago
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/liamhalligan/8148757/Plucky-… This is an attempt by the undemocratic European political class and big finance to pull themselves out of the poo by forcing the Irish taxpayers (and then the Greek, Portugese, Spanish, Italian, etc) to commit themselves to horrendous future taxes in order to repay the bad investment decisions of German, French and British banks.
If the Irish government goes along with this they are Quislings and will deserve all that their fellow citizens do to them in future.
Guess what we have coming?............. http://www.times-age.co.nz/local/news/big-dry-looms-in-wairarapa/3930949/
"The big dry is looming in Wairarapa as river levels fall and council warnings sound on water restrictions and permit holders".....and we've had a few mm lately in marlborough but we know what coming..........what did the last one do for the GDP %!
http://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/farming/4357470/Rain-needed-for-feed
http://www.stuff.co.nz/taranaki-daily-news/farming/4357468/Praying-for-rain
http://www.windguru.cz/int/index.php?sc=208733
Some welcome rain in parts over the weekend here, but it's looking tough.
Had a good rain in HB. I think its going to get interesting in farming, I suspect that the real action is going to be in the dairy industry, still.
Dairy news
There doesn’t seem to be any surprises here, which presently is welcome. The overall scoring for this time around is “steady.” Fonterra calculates the weighted average price for all products in this round of bidding to be (0.1%), and follows a “no change” result from the previous one. Fewer than one third of the qualified bidders participated this time, the lowest rate since that statistic was first reported in March. Some bidders may be tiring of having to step up twice a month to bid for the same amount of product that had been available once a month. The trade offs for that inconvenience is greater transparency and a better take on what’s happening to demand for these important products. We certainly don’t want another “thin” market, with fewer and fewer traders to develop, do we? That would increase the number of questions about how representative the bidding results really are. Fonterra had hopes – and perhaps still has – for other suppliers of these products to join the auction. That seems so unlikely at this point, even for companies located in New Zealand and Australia. Too much distrust and not enough need for that to happen, but it would be interesting.
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