90 seconds at 9 am with BNZ

90 seconds at 9 am with BNZ: NZ$ weaker after poor confidence figures; Lower Christmas spend seen; Hotchin struggling on NZ$1,000/wk; SCF receiverships

17th Dec 10, 9:10am by Bernard Hickey

Bernard Hickey details the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am in association with Bank of New Zealand, including news the New Zealand dollar was weak overnight after weak consumer and business figures for New Zealand.

It dipped to 73.5 USc and hit a fresh 10 year under 74.5 Australian cents.

Westpac's survey found consumer confidence dipped in the December quarter to its lowest level in 18 months. See more here.

The survey also found the median spend on Christmas presents this was likely to be NZ$413, which was down from NZ$443 last year.

Consumers are keeping their wallets shut this Christmas in the wake of the GST hike and as they look to repay debt, or in most cases, avoid taking on new debt.

Meanwhile, National Bank's business confidence survey found a fall in confidence, particularly in the residential investment sector. See more here.

Elsewhere, Jenni McManus reports at BusinessDay that Mark Hotchin believes he can't survive on the NZ$1,000 a week allowance he has been granted by the Securities Commission after his assets and accounts were frozen.

Hotchin is currently living in a luxury beachfront pad on the Gold Coast and is supporting 7 people.

Finally, South Canterbury Finance's receiverships have put two companies owned by the Timaru-based financier into receivership, including Woolpak and Plum Duff. See more detail here.

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48 Comments

by scarfie | 17th Dec 10, 9:22am 1292530974

Gee did you wet the bed this morning Bernard:-P

QE II or not I think the NZD has started the slide into oblivion.

by Cleo | 17th Dec 10, 9:39am 1292531976

Nice haircut Bernard.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 17th Dec 10, 11:54am 1292540079

Not so much a haircut , as a statement of intent ! Some tatoos and a leather waist coat would complete the ensemble ......... Accessorise with a snarl and a small cigar .

[ the screeching you hear , is the lads from Warren & Tarquains' Salon . Reckon you've broken a few hearts there , Bernard ]

by Bernard Hickey | 17th Dec 10, 12:18pm 1292541530

All I need now is an Interest.co.nz branded baseball bat and some steel capped boots...

Sad to hear about Warren and Tarquain...

It'll grow back... I hope..

cheers

Bernard

by Kunst | 17th Dec 10, 12:27pm 1292542077

In deed Bernard - I often think you interviewing politicians etc. - you got your “Softgloves” on.

by shorts | 17th Dec 10, 12:43pm 1292543021

They are doing him a favour by doing the interview so he can't scare them off by asking too difficult a question. Cracks me up how some posters over estimate the significance and influence of BH and interest.co.nz

by Cleo | 17th Dec 10, 9:43am 1292532200

So who are the seven people Hotchin is supporting? Wife and kids? I thought there was one wife and a couple of kids. That doesnt add up to seven.

Speaking of the wife, I wonder how attractive she is finding him now. With only $1000 a week to spend.

by Gareth Vaughan | 17th Dec 10, 9:52am 1292532758

There are his lawyers, I see a QC quoted in Jenni's story. They don't come cheap...

by Kunst | 17th Dec 10, 9:43am 1292532220

I think Bernard joint the “Hot-chin- Gang"

by Gareth Vaughan | 17th Dec 10, 9:51am 1292532674

A shocker from Fisher & Paykel Appliances. They now expect full-year earnings before interest and tax for the Appliances business of between $15 million and $25 million, down from the Nov 26 forecast of between $28 million to $35 million.

F&P has, however, reaffirmed that earnings before interest and taxation from F&P Finance should be about $35 million.

http://www.nzx.com/markets/NZSX/FPA/announcements/4469311/FPA-Revised-f…

The Finance business contributed 74% of Sep year ebitda, looks like this trend will continue...

http://www.interest.co.nz/news/fp-finance-delivers-nearly-three-quarter…

by KW John | 17th Dec 10, 9:53am 1292532802

Its gone....

Wahlly might have something better in the shed...

Start with no 2 all over.

by Kunst | 17th Dec 10, 10:06am 1292533573

Minister Brownlee/ Joyce - smaller countries have to think smaller, but with bigger ideas.

Start manufacturing for internal needs e.g. infrastructure – building a solid platform first - with a vision – for the nation - to make real money - towards a “100%NZpure Economy”

by muzza | 17th Dec 10, 10:12am 1292533927

Can one live on $1,000 ? - depends what your outgoings are.

by Kate | 17th Dec 10, 10:22am 1292534568

This could well be character building - he should get a job in the real economy - I've got heaps of scrub-cutting and he can bunk up in the woolshed.

by 28_29 yr old | 17th Dec 10, 10:23am 1292534587

Nic A def can't live on $1K /wk lol ;)

Mark Hotchin try www.sorted.co.nz for budgeting calculators

by Nicholas Arrand | 17th Dec 10, 10:57am 1292536650

Told ya! I'd much prefer to be at that stage where I 'couldn't live' on $10k per week, rather than 'doing ok' on $1k per week....Wouldn't you?! Cheers. 28 y.o. and have a good Chrissy with the family. Till next year.....

by 28_29 yr old | 17th Dec 10, 11:20am 1292538012

Thanks Nic you too

See you at the open homes in JAN, merry xmas

by superman | 17th Dec 10, 10:45am 1292535903

Merry Christmas Mr Hotchins! :-)))))))))))))))))))))

by Gareth Vaughan | 17th Dec 10, 10:53am 1292536415

The world's biggest banks must raise A$773 billion in capital to comply with Basel III or face restrictions on bonus and dividend payouts. http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/industry-sectors/bank-bosses-t…

by Gareth Vaughan | 17th Dec 10, 11:06am 1292537160

And RBA to help Aussie banks meet the new Basel liquidity standards - http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aAL_.kFOArxg

And here's APRA's statement on it - http://www.apra.gov.au/media-releases/10_27.cfm

by Patricia | 17th Dec 10, 1:33pm 1292546026

Oh super, Well as long as our Reserve Bank doesn’t feel the need to help the New Zealand Branches of the Aussie Banks with their new Basel 11 funding liquidity requirements. What with the Aussie Banks here being able to give covered bonds now and, they say, legislation is being prepared to give their Foreign Lenders the comfort they need in relation to them, why don’t we just kick the Aussie Banks out and start up our own but make them Government owned. We might as well with what the New Zealand taxpayer will be required to pay out when any one of those Aussie Banks go belly up.

by Nicholas Arrand | 17th Dec 10, 11:18am 1292537880

"(Albert) Edwards also has some amusing observations on the plight of a bears in an environment in which the market spends far more time going up than down... but when it does go down, the move is savage and instantaneous...What is the primary driver of Albert's scepticism? Deleveraging, deleveraging, deleveraging"

http://www.zerohedge.com/article/albert-edwards-market-i-do-not-really-have-one-scintilla-doubt-will-all-end-tears-again

by Troy | 17th Dec 10, 11:21am 1292538102

Bernard, You joining the US Marines?

by Kunst | 17th Dec 10, 11:27am 1292538435

Bernard joining US army - ??? - they wouldn’t let him - too much of a Leakywiki guy.

by Chairman Moa | 17th Dec 10, 11:27am 1292538449

Mr Hickey

Nice haircut... now get a job!

by Mark Daly | 17th Dec 10, 11:31am 1292538699

I have no sympathy for me Hotchin and there are limited similarities with Hubbard with the contrast between their lifestyles is striking. However there is one common cause between them and that is their inability to access funds to pay legal and other expenses to counter the investigations against them. Both have had no charges laid aginst them with Plane Jane clearly acknowledging that the seizure of Hotchin's assets is not an admission of guilt or an indication that charges will be brought (I note that she certainly didn't say the same in respect of Hubbard). Therefore in respect of both men assets have been seized and they are unable to adequately defend themselves because their rights have been steamrolled by bureaucrats. Hubbards statutory managers refuse to give him adequate funds to fight his stautory management - a clear conflict of interest as they have a clear interest in prolonging all and every investigation. Saying that they will fund the defence should charges be brought is no defence. As we all know in commercial disputes and disputes with Governmnet agencies early legal advice can lead to early settlements which in the long run save the taxpayer money.

Justice is not being served in these cases and while Hotchin is a bad example these cases are not treating people as being innocent until proven guilty and are more akin to a facist state.

by scarfie | 17th Dec 10, 4:15pm 1292555706

Yep the great New Zealand clobbering machine at work.

I have to say I agree with your sentiments. No sympathy but definitely some unease at the tactics being used. I think they are keen to deprive him of good representation as they know the case they are building is a bit light.

Just the other day I chastised my father when he talked about that guy who did a runner with all the gold in the 80's. I told him to read "Where's the Gold" by Ray Smith. To his credit he did so and now has a different view of the way justice works. Worst bit is I know a few of the players from that story. A certain detective was just a pawn in the game and hasn't gone on to do anything significant. Be interesting to know what Ray is up to these days.

by Justice | 17th Dec 10, 4:25pm 1292556350

Hello, someone call for Justice? ;-)

by Mark Hubbard | 17th Dec 10, 5:18pm 1292559525

Mark Daly you are in many ways correct.

Below is my blog on this sorry state of affairs in New Zealand.

I don’t know Mark Hotchin, nor Allan Hubbard. I have no idea whether their activities have been ‘above board’, or not. What I do know is that I don’t want to live in a country where the former can have his assets frozen by the State without his knowledge, or a single charge being laid, and where the latter can have his reputation and his wealth destroyed in a four minute speech by a Minister in Parliament on a Sunday afternoon, then be in a position where he can’t even pay a lawyer to defend himself. Why? .... The rest can be read here: http://tribelesshispursuitofhappiness.blogspot.com/2010/12/opinion-piece-of-hotchin-finance.html

by iconoclast | 17th Dec 10, 7:31pm 1292567477

The worm turns full circle. Dont forget, in July 2008 Hanover Finance, co-owned by Hotchin Eric Watson, FROZE $554m of investor funds, denying investors access to their funds.

by Pureant | 17th Dec 10, 12:07pm 1292540874

Clearly the big news is .................

"the haircut",

Not bad, maybe a shadow next for the ..........bad boy ensemble.

by Vanderlei Luxemburgo | 17th Dec 10, 12:41pm 1292542917

yep cleo's question about how long mrs hotchin will stick around at $1k/week is a fair and pointy question.

quite shocking how out of touch people get.

similarly, while the pollies were in cancun yapping about the environment, i wonder how much more enthusiastic they'd be if they spent a fortnight in a heavily polluted neighbourhood of jakarta or gwangzhou.....and same for the EU bankers....put them in a suburb of dublin with 50% unemployment and see how they go. i don't see how people can be expected to be interested in solving issues unless the issue is right in their face.

by Andrewj | 17th Dec 10, 1:17pm 1292545036

Michael Hudson-Why Government is More Afraid of Debt than Depression

http://www.therealnews.com/t2/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id…

by KW John | 17th Dec 10, 4:12pm 1292555579

Ouch.... great link - Mr Hudson's not happy..

by Andrewj | 17th Dec 10, 1:43pm 1292546592

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/politics/8207670/Crisis-of-c…

You cannot have a near 25 per cent devaluation in the currency, in combination with a 30 per cent increase in commodity prices (much more for oil and gas), without it very significantly raising the cost of living. The terms of trade have moved dramatically against the UK economy. Strip this and higher sales taxes out, and domestically generated inflation might be close to zero.

The oddity is not so much the occurrence of heightened inflation in the midst of a serious economic correction, as the Bank’s failure to anticipate it. This has added to the suspicion that the Bank is making up the numbers to suit the policy. It is perhaps better to be damned as a knave than a fool, but the truth is that forecasting error rather than deceit has caused the problem.

A target is a target, and plainly there is some level at which interest rates could be set to rapidly bring inflation back in line. Yet to adopt such an approach would be to impose the same internal devaluation on the nation as is afflicting the once high-living peripheral economies of the eurozone

The simple truth is that there isn’t actually much to understand. After a decade or more in which, frankly, my 10-year-old daughter could have been left in charge of monetary policy and come up with much the same result, advanced economies have sailed into infinitely more challenging waters.

by Wolly | 17th Dec 10, 1:59pm 1292547553

An early relection may well be on the table...It would solve Key's problem re his promises...Labour are at sixes and sevens on even the good days...waiting 6 long months before English tells us all about his jolly 6 part strategy again just don't cut it.

How soon could Key call it?

by Vanderlei Luxemburgo | 17th Dec 10, 3:02pm 1292551354

interesting call there woll..........

not an appealing call but you have a point there i think

labour are dire at the mo, so why not?

by steven | 17th Dec 10, 4:18pm 1292555895

because Im not so sure Labour are on the back foot, but personally I expect 2011 to get really hairy, so I'd go as soon as I could myself while things dont look to bad.

But Wong's seat is a by-election....I think if its some months? 3? before a general election...

before JK doesnt have to call one....but he has.

regards

by Wolly | 17th Dec 10, 3:48pm 1292554125

New Zealand Herald - ‎19 hours ago........ Ohakune‎ "Another 80 job losses announced today in a third sawmill unable to profitably export timber suggests the wood industry is in crisis, says a union representing workers in the sector." How could a mill not make a profit on timber....commodity prices are way up there right!...so what's the reason?

by rc | 17th Dec 10, 4:10pm 1292555431

Whats the housing start stats?

Certain not as many being built as back in 2003-2006.

by steven | 17th Dec 10, 4:37pm 1292557078

nobody buying?

I stopped doing "big" diy projects some years back the materials just cost too much... Then 2~3 years ago the prices got significantly worse at the likes of Placemakers....now I just do repairs...

A job I am looking at is making an under window bench seat....the wood in placemakers and bunnings is fingerjointed crap, or I can go down to early settler or some such and buy finished coffee tables and saw them up...its cheaper and the wood is nice.......now the labour from a finger jointed piece of wood isnt huge....the finishing is in the coffee tables....the pricing makes no sense. What Im doing right now is Im keeping an eye out on trademe for second hand tables etc to rip apart....

regards

by KW John | 17th Dec 10, 4:47pm 1292557648

one or two good recycling yards north of you....

by Justice | 17th Dec 10, 4:29pm 1292556565

China's property boom has also ended? maybe

by scarfie | 17th Dec 10, 4:08pm 1292555318

Wally your idea for an early election might work in well if they introduced the four year term at the same time. That would do Key very nicely wouldn't it.

by Christov | 17th Dec 10, 4:35pm 1292556914

It's Friday yay............... in honour of the Politician.

Sherlock Holmes and Dr. Watson went on a camping trip. As they lay down for the night, Holmes said:" Watson, look up into the sky and tell me what you see?" Watson said, "I see millions and millions of stars." Holmes: "And what does that tell you?" Watson: "Astronomically, it tells me that there are millions of galaxies and potentially billions of planets. Theologically, it tells me that God is great and that we are small and insignificant. Meteorogically, it tells me that we will have a beautiful day tomorrow. What does it tell you?" Holmes: "Somebody stole our tent."

by jh | 17th Dec 10, 4:55pm 1292558143

I wonder if anyone has considered AH's behaviour as a possible indicator of (something like) narsistic personality disorder: get's off on adoration, plays loose and fast with bounderies re his subjects funds?

by iconoclast | 17th Dec 10, 5:20pm 1292559648

@scarfie Re "Where's the Gold" Ray Smith

Extract from http://www.stuff.co.nz/sunday-star-times/business/776473

In the yellowed newspaper clippings on the investment company collapses that scandalised New Zealand decades ago, the now-familiar hallmarks are evident the management penchant for risk-taking with other people's money, the tendency to obfuscation, the tangled webs of related companies, the investors willingly closing their eyes to danger.

The first of these schemes was JBL in the 1960's. It set NZ alight. Investors couldnt get enough. There were articles daily in the NZ Herald of $1000's arriving in the mail each day without any identification of who it was from. There was one example of $30000 (that's 1960's money) arriving in the mail with no identification. The excitement was electric.

by NeilD | 17th Dec 10, 8:14pm 1292570061

Hey Bernard..is that haircut a Communist Party Regulation..Nah, looks good Dog!!!

Shows us 'Midlife' Blokes still got it.

Cheers NFD