Holiday briefing for Friday, December 31, 2010

31st Dec 10, 8:03am by David Chaston

It may be the holiday break, but in the rest of the world, business goes on. Here is a quick snapshot of some key news and data overnight.

Oxford Finance has had its credit rating downgraded from investment grade BBB-, to speculative grade BB. Apparently it is because its parent, lines company Electra, is considered weakened by having a finance company as a wholly owned subsidiary.

The SFO has launched a probe of the Bublitz-owned Mutual Finance after getting info from the receiver and Companies Office.

We are being loved-to-death by currency traders - we are at an all-time high against the pound, a three year high against the euro, and rising against the US dollar. Another commodity bubble is being blown.

Israel has discovered huge new gas resourses, making it a powerhouse energy supplier of the future.

The lucrative business of polluting - in two years the next stage of the ETS will come into effect and could be a system "massively abused".

There is a huge rush to issue covered bonds worldwide - in fact US$356 billion were issued in 2010, and that's without the US in the market.

		8 am		--- 52 week --
		Today	yesterday	high	low
		--------	--------	---------	---------
FX rates	NZ$1=US$	0.7692	0.7660	0.7964	0.6584
	NZ$1=AU$	0.7593	0.7530	0.8212	0.7408

Gold	in US$	1,406	1,412	1,421	1,058
	in NZ$	1,825	1,844	1,877	1,507

Copper	in US$	9,465	9,499	9,499	6,091
	in NZ$	12,305	12,401	12,671	8,951

Crude oil	in US$/bl	89.34	91.29	91.45	70.15
	in NZ$	116.15	119.17	121.36	101.30

US Treasuries	30 yr bond	4.41%	4.53%	4.78%	3.61%

Dow	DJIA 30	11,569	11,617	11,617	9,614

Have a safe and happy New Year's eve. We hope your 2011 is [even] better than your 2010.

See you next year, when we will be expanding our service progressively throughout the year, with the first major addition in February.

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15 Comments

by muzza | 31st Dec 10, 8:51am 1293738689

No wonder 1 in 4 NZ'ers plan to take an overseas holiday in the next 6 months.

by LOL | 31st Dec 10, 9:05am 1293739510

Are you a travel agent?

by Wolly | 31st Dec 10, 11:26am 1293747971

I too would buy some of this covered bond shite knowing I will be in the box seat when the refi time comes and the Kiwi banks face demanding higher rates from households...easy money for me...I'm setting the price because demand exceeds supply several times over!

Meanwhile the mortgage serfs in NZ shuffle ever closer to the cliff which they cannot see and are not being warned about....something Bollard is responsible for!....well you don't really expect the banks to issue warnings do you....

011 arrives along with govt promises of growth in our time...but without the warning that said growth MUST bring higher rates...which will mean a rush of mortgagee listings and the banks all a flutter as to how they can keep the bubbles inflated and save their covered bond arses.

by Chris_J | 31st Dec 10, 12:53pm 1293753206

Today: January 31? Only 11 months left in 2010?

I guess it's been a long year.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 31st Dec 10, 1:01pm 1293753675

It's December 31 where I live ........... But my teachers did tell me that I was a bit slow ............. How did the New Years Eve parties go , guys ? ........ Jan. 31 , 2010 , huh !

TUI Ad : Year , right .

by David Chaston | 31st Dec 10, 8:47pm 1293781646

oops!

by Gummy Bear Hero | 31st Dec 10, 1:27pm 1293755234

Gummster's gotta go ! So to all at interest.co.nz , Wolly , Kunst , muzza , Sore-loser , steven , PDK , Elly , Chris_J , Andrew-in-Funland , Christov , St. Nick .. ............. To all the wise and wonderful , all the funny crew who write here ........... oh yeah , and to you too , Rob-of-the-North ............ Happy New Year ! Rock on , 2011 .

GBH is orf for a walk up the hill to Para-On , to a friend's manok ( chicken farm ) . Lechon manok and Tanduay Rum to see in the new year . Yes ! ........... And meebee some karyoake and San Miguel pale pilsen later on .

May you all be so blessed . Pip pip !

by Bernard Hickey | 1st Jan 11, 3:34pm 1293849282

Cheers Gummy.

It's still 2010 where I am.

Happy New Year to all

Bernard

by speckles | 1st Jan 11, 3:48pm 1293850098

Hope Bernard you are going to slip into a certain interesting conferences over there in Vegas in Jan..will be real interesting and make a nice change from the high living...even if just for a few hours :-)

by Bernard Hickey | 1st Jan 11, 4:37pm 1293853044

Ha. My wife has the work conference. I'm babysitting. Plenty of good, clean fun to be had without spending money. Apparently lots of great fountains and man-made scenery.

Enjoying our trip there in an RV via the coast from LA to San Francisco, across to Lake Tahoe and down through Death Valley to Vegas.

Just visited Hearst Castle. Back in the last gilded age of the 1920s he sure spent a lot of money hauling a lot of cheap art back from a bombed out Europe.

The gap between the rich and the poor is so wide here, and getting wider.

Bernard

by Wolly | 31st Dec 10, 1:51pm 1293756691

Paul Krugman getting a well deserved boot up the bum.... http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article25326.html

by Wolly | 1st Jan 11, 7:23am 1293819792

Here's a brief warning:

"THE Reserve Bank's November rate hike sparked a national fall in house prices with further declines likely over the year ahead.

Prices had been flat for the five months since the previous rate hike in May but slipped 0.2 per cent in November.

Although some regions are performing better than others, house prices have now fallen in all state capitals since May with property markets showing signs of weakening further.

New lending figures released by the central bank yesterday show that growth in home lending to owner-occupiers has fallen to 7.3 per cent, its lowest level in the 20 years figures have been kept and little more than half the average growth of 13 per cent. The Rismark-RP Data house price index shows the market is weakest in Perth, where average prices have fallen by 4.9 per cent, or almost $25,000, since May."

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/nation/house-prices-tipped-to-slip/story-e6frg6nf-1225979670600

by muzza | 1st Jan 11, 9:59pm 1293872381

It will be amazing if there isn't any correction in Australia, as while NZ prices settled and eased in past 3 years,they have continued to go up and up in Australia. We are now probably better positioned here in NZ due to the correction since 2007

by Wolly | 5th Jan 11, 8:29am 1294169347

A late holiday brief aimed at socialist marxists who always emerge from beneath their rocks to claim public ownership of resources after private exploration has proved the ore body or whatever.

This is a lesson for them. Exploration costs are high and losses can be huge. They never put up the money but always demand a share of the bounty when anything is found. Right Jewleya?

http://www.theage.com.au/business/shares-plunge-as-advents-20m-gas-hunt-runs-dry-20110104-19f21.html

by Wolly | 5th Jan 11, 11:14am 1294179279

Remember this on radionz.....back in late oct.

Why has there been NO public comment about this?

Who suggested this bright idea?

Is there any evidence to support the claim?

Is there a better way to use the 200 million?

What happens when they are finished, and another mag7 hits right underneath said safe land?

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The Government is to build what it describes as a massive dam around Christchurch suburbs affected by a major earthquake.

The underground wall structure will encircle eight areas damaged as a result of the 7.1 magnitude quake that hit Canterbury on 4 September.

The Government says the strengthened terrain will minimise the impact of large quakes on suburbs which have been affected by liquefaction.

The structure will be built underground on vacant public land that borders rivers and other waterways. It would be built from concrete or wooden columns that would be driven into the ground.

Earthquake Recovery Minister Gerry Brownlee says the plan could cost up to $200 million and would be paid for by the Government.

The plan requires approval from three local councils to proceed.

The Earthquake Commission hopes the remedial can start early next year. Chief executive Ian Simpson says the dams would generally be about 10 metres wide and ideally on public land.

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