90 seconds at 9 am with BNZ

90 seconds at 9 am with BNZ: Mubarak to quit; British hold rates, but pound rises; US employment improves; food security worsens

11th Feb 11, 8:45am by David Chaston

David Chaston details the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am in association with Bank of New Zealand, including news that President Mubarak is about to step down in Egypt, potentially defusing tensions there. But how the power vacuum will be filled will become the next focus.

The Dow and S+P 500 are holding at two and a half year highs, gold is unchanged, and oil has slipped under US87/barrel.

The NZ$ is down 1 cent overnight, currently trading at US 76.58c to the NZ$.

The Bank of England has held its policy rate at 0.5%, confirming that it has been active with its emergency stimulus measures. But the UK pound rose as the markets are betting the British will need to raise that policy rate before the end of 2011.

The slight rise we have seen recently in long-dated US Treasuries paused yesterday, probably because there was better news overnight about the growing strength – or maybe that is easing weakness – of the US jobs situation. US jobless claims fell in the first week of February, and are now at their lowest level since July 2008.

There was similar good employment news in Australia where economists noted that more jobs were added in January than most expected.

And finally, we will be reporting New Zealand’s January Food price rise later this morning. The main pressure here is on grocery prices, and we will be keeping a special eye on that. But overseas, the UN is warning that hoarding by governments of wheat is a real problem, pushing up its price, but no end is in sight, with two years short-supply in front of us.

And, China has announced a major new investment program aimed at food security - to boost grain supply and fight the effects of drought.

The cost and supply of food is becoming a major strategic issue for governments around the world.

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12 Comments

by Matt S | 11th Feb 11, 9:03am 1297368221

Higher food prices? Its just your lying eyes.

Govt statisticians/monkeys will be working overtime on the next CPI data to exclude all food items that have gone up, to ensure that the CPI prints low. Have no fear comrades, our goverment has inflation under control.

by Boatman | 11th Feb 11, 12:18pm 1297379914

Kiwi's are not dumb ...Statistics New Zealand risk losing all credibility , and DARE NOT not try to pull the wool over our eyes with BS figures .

We all know that food , fuel and other essentials , as well as administered costs which we cannot avoid , such as ACC , Council rates , electricity , etc have all gone up by around 8% + in 2010.

No matter what the spin , Stats NZ and the Reserve Bank cannot spin this one without digging themselves into a big hole .

No matter what the spindoctors say , Inflation is no longer benign in NZ , we are all feeling it and our buying, saving and spending decisions, and we are all factoring this into our decisons , conciously or unconciuosly .

I would wager that a person in a lower socio-economic group haave been feeling the effects of price increases this some time now , hence the unexpected minimum wage increase of 4% just this week

by Andrewj | 11th Feb 11, 12:24pm 1297380249

Boatman, just wait till commodity producers increase production, a market signal based on speculation not demand, then the house of cards collapses. Look at the OPEC reponse

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financetopics/oilprices/8317202/Opec…

Statisticians ever had any credibility?

by Matt S | 11th Feb 11, 1:04pm 1297382640

Ahh yes Boatman, but here's the dilemma;

A. Tell the truth and print the real rate of inflation then Bollard is going to have to tighten monetary policy. NZD$ goes to da moon. Exports tank. Unemployments soars. Property ponzi skeem blows, banks get a permanent holiday, and sales of pitchforks go through the roof. And for afters: NZD$ crashes and burns.

B. Lie. Print a low CPI. Sheeple think they must be imagining inflation. Boil the frog. Kick the can down the road just a little longer, while praying to the Keynesian gods for a miracle recovery. Good employment prospects for spindoctors. Buys just a little more time.

Tough choice .... !!

by Muppet King | 11th Feb 11, 9:08am 1297368520

Paid $13.14 last night for 500 grams of orzo pasta salad, girlfriend had a fit and thought it was outrageous, I thought it was delicious but extremely over-priced, we were amazed.

by Basel Brush III | 11th Feb 11, 9:34am 1297370064

That is about $2.00 if you made it yourself.

;o)

by Muppet King | 11th Feb 11, 10:34am 1297373694

Yeah we were both amazed at how expensive it was! Just goes to shoe the price of orzo has gone way up haha

by Andy Rodgers | 11th Feb 11, 9:38am 1297370317

It will be interesting to see what happens in the future with China buying food production facilities in NZ. Will we get food price rises accelerating in NZ while at the same time NZ food is being exported back to China. Will we get Egyptian style protests in NZ?

by powerdownkiwi | 11th Feb 11, 10:18am 1297372698

yes, yes and yes.

The price of freedom is eternal vigilance - but there's not a lot of it around just at the mo.

by Casual Observer | 11th Feb 11, 11:25am 1297376719

Food will become more expensive if commodities continue to go up. What I have noticed lately is the decrease in the choice of products available on the supermarket shelves. I think you will see more of that as supermarkets try to keep the food price rises down.

NZ only consumes around 5% of it's dairy products produced so there will always be significant exporting of dairy.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 11th Feb 11, 11:58am 1297378733

el Presidente Mubabarak of not " about to step down " . ...

.... What he actually said was : " I am about to have a day-by-day step to a peaceful transition until September ...... "

That man could've easily filled Winston's shoes , if the winsome one was ever having a sabbatical from NZ First .

by scarfie | 11th Feb 11, 1:38pm 1297384685

The next day or so is going to be interesting. From Stratfor.com

The decision by Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak not to resign seems to have shocked both the Egyptian military and Washington. CIA Director Leon Panetta spoke earlier as if his resignation was assured and a resolution to the crisis was guaranteed. Sources in Cairo spoke the same way. How the deal came apart, or whether Mubarak decided that transferring power to Vice President Omar Suleiman was sufficient cannot be known. What is known is that Mubarak did not do what was expected.

This now creates a massive crisis for the Egyptian military. Its goal is not to save Mubarak but to save the regime founded by Gamal Abdel Nasser. We are now less than six hours from dawn in Cairo. The military faces three choices. The first is to stand back, allow the crowds to swell and likely march to the presidential palace and perhaps enter the grounds. The second choice is to move troops and armor into position to block more demonstrators from entering Tahrir Square and keep those in the square in place. The third is to stage a coup and overthrow Mubarak.

There is more but it is repeating what we already know.