Bernard Hickey details the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am in association with Bank of New Zealand, including news that the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research has slashed its forecast for economic growth this year to 0.3% from 2.3%.
However, the economic forecaster said only half of that is due to the February 22 earthquake in Christchurch.
Consumer spending had been slow as households repaid debt and higher food and petrol prices had also hit many consumers, NZIER said.
See more detail in our article on NZIER's forecast.
Meanwhile, Stuff reports some commercial landlords have doubled rents on industrial properties in Christchurch with some being forced to pay key money of NZ$100,000 or being asked to buy the building outright.
See more detail here at Stuff.
Over in Australia, the CEO of Australasian insurer QBE, Frank O'Halloran, has warned that some reinsurers may pull out of Australia and New Zealand altogether in the wake of massive claims for both the Queensland floods and the Christchurch earthquakes.
O'Halloran said those that did not pull out of the market would increase premiums substantially.
The New Zealand dollar was solid overnight and has remained remarkably strong despite the worst natural and economic disaster in our history.
Prime Minister John Key pointed out yesterday that the combined cost of the two Christchurch earthquakes was likely to be around NZ$20 billion or around 7-8% of GDP, which compared to the 1% of GDP cost of Hurricane Katrina in America.
See more here in Alex Tarrant's article on Key's comments.
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31 Comments
Yes, lets rebuild CHCH with industrial rents now double what they were a week ago. Good luck with that rebuild. See, this is what happens everytime during disasters . Price gouging so a great deal of industry will be forced from CHCH on price alone. Great for other towns and cities I guess but not good for CHCH
I can just hear Gerry Brownlee now: "i urge everyone to shop around" hmmmm
Its human nature to be greedy and price gouging, we all know that those in the property sector are the biggest parasites on society, all for their love of money. What they don't realize is the saying 'the best things in life are free' is not just a cliche.
amen to that! I'm off fishing now! seeya
once again NZIER are on the money
Somehow Westpac think we'll get 1.7% growth this year :)
Landlord have doubled rents? From what base? Commercial property; warehouses around Sockburn, Curlett's Road etc. was beyond dead before the earthquakes. Masses of untenanted, large buildings just sitting empty, and had been for ages. So they may have 'doubled the rent' - to back to normal, or back to half of normal ?!
what's "normal" exactly right now?
Bad choice of word on my part ! :) Perhaps 'historical norm' might have been a better phrase.
that's better ;-)
So lets make a list:
we have growing government debt
we have massive borrowing
we have massive private debt
we have little economic activity due to debt reduction focus (private anyway)
we have bailed out finance firms
we have two major earthquakes cleaning EQC out
we have lack lustre world economy
we have record commodity prices
we have ETS obligations thanks to Nick the dick
we have US wanting Free trade all of a sudden because they fear China
we have middle east wanting democracy of some kind
we have .............add at will!
a few more:
we have a number of key US states looking bankrupt
we have the Irish about to tell Brussels to stick it and their banks
The US states is an interesting problem....right now there seems to be an attempt at an end game in play where the Republican Governor / state senate is determined to break whats left of the unions....all it really is a race to the bottom and the fools cant see it.......however it looks like there may be finally some concerted push back.....so it looks unstable....in the meantime default and bankruptcy looks more and more likely and no fed Govn handout to stop it....At some point I guess we get to see the Republican lapdogs little front paws scrabbling on the cliff edge after their ass and hind legs are swinging in the breeze over the edge and they finally realise it...and man its a long drop....
The Irish, well I hope they do now....pretty convinced that debt default is better then decades of slavery for PAYE's paying back paper money that never existed in the first place....and wont get paid anyway....peak oil will collpase economies anyway....
regards
You missed some,
We have peak oil, which is going to shaft the Govn and private finances
We have AGW, which is going to shaft our agri-culture.
We have a housing sector thats up to 50% over-priced and looking to pop.
We have a farming sector thats up to 50% over-priced and looking to pop.
We have retiring BBs
We have the US wanting a free trade deal because their businesses dont make much except IP....so then they can get the likes of Pharmac shutdown and price gouge Kiwi's. Some things I am reading are repeatedly along this line ie the US cant produce anything any more so is looking to its financial sector and some big industries like Pharacutical to bring in the $....It will do this by removing any and all possible competition, and loading the developing world countries and workers with debt they cant get out of just like they have done to the OECD. This then brings in a de-facto monopoly rent...which means it can tax the world for its "income" at the rate it chooses. All the while the right wing retards think its a great thing......mostly because they are their mates get a bit of a cut by the look of it....fools.....look to the end game and take the damn blinkers off!...
regards
Nice! And Steve, Guess who owns one of the biggest US Pharma's that want in here?
Monsanto! including their 'Agri' division ofcourse
Of course, lots of GE crap....but the GE crap needs specific fertilizers, specific pesticides and is a one use crop...ie third world farmers cant re-use the seeds year after year....so really its useless when oil and gas is expensive, if it ever was....
There seems to be a growing market for organic or at least GE free produce...NZ is small, highly productive and flexible we can supply that....like why would we want to produce cheap GE laden corn?
regards
Not just that, Our dairy industry might get caught out here via what Pharma they use for animal welfare and feed fertilization. Monsanto will start calling the shots via their IP rights!
Just got this from BNZ/Business NZ re PMI and PSI surveys for Feb:
PMI and PSI surveys suspended for February
BNZ and BusinessNZ advise that their monthly surveys of the manufacturing and services sectors will not be operational for the month of February.
The BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) and BNZ-BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI) for the month of February would have been released on 10 March and 14 March respectively.
Disruption caused by the 22 February earthquake would have impacted on the data, with the priorities of many respondents within and outside the Canterbury region likely focused elsewhere.
The PMI and PSI surveys will resume for the month of March, with results to be released on 14 and 18 April respectively.
Doesn't the strength of a country's currency reflect the strength of its economy? If NZ dollar is strong that means other people perceived that we are doing well.
What if the strength of currency is only based on the amount of currency speculators and traders and not real actual economic activity? Ohh... and lets not even mention credit ratings/ scorings from the likes of S&P
Or it could be $15billion of insurance being converted in to NZD.
Its relative...we are just not as bad a basket case as others.
regards
Stuff reckons 50,000 people have left Christchurch since the earthquake - http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/christchurch-earthquake/4715113/Christc…
anecdotally, i was at a travel industry trade show in chc 3 weeks ago and the accountants said there was a waaaay higher (several hundred %) amount of people paying in cash, and many of them were whispering about how useful the EQC money was for getting a bit of a break. they were generally looking for a wee break before getting into the hard graft of rebuilding. it would appear that optimism is fading fast now...
Actual head count was it? Journalism these days is dire
So right about dire journalism Justice,
Did anybody see the rude and bullying "interview" by John Campbell with Ken Ring last
night? I wanted to hear what the man had to say...no chance.
yeah, John did get way uptight but ..........Ken is full of shit. I too wanted to hear his response regardless. Very unprofessional of John
Not 1910, not 1950 – 2011 this was another example of NZjournalism - a "Burning Witch" of the middle age by John Campbell (TV3) – unbelievable. How can we ever learn to understand natural events with such an attitude – not even listening to controversial statements ?
On the other hand ministers/ politicians are handled with care and critical questions are avoided.
compare that to some of the interviews kim hill did at the weekend - one was with a geologist who really went in to some depth because the interviewer allowed him to. it wasn't a shoutfest. it was just one interviewer helping a scientist explain the highly technical event we've just been through.
compare that to the campbell or sainsbury.......tragic
Can I ask that no one comments during the 2 minutes of silence in respect for the people of Christchurch.
Have to agree on the Ken Ring comments. The scientists arguments were fallacious right from the outset, and when I hear that it tells me they don't actually have an argument.
I don't know if Ken Ring is onto something or not, but his position was certainly strengthened by the weakness of the scientists.
It annoys me when scientist make out they are right because they have the science or qualifications behind them, at the end of the day science is just the best guess currently known.
I don't generally watch TV as reporting in this country is not that at all, just entertainment. But Sainsbury is an idiot also.
Had to resort to the TV because my internet has been out for a week.
"Laws are made by the rich to protect their wealth!"..The longer a society has been coasting along the tighter these laws become..some subtle and some not so subtle...at some point nothing much gets done because the rich have got it all tied up...and the rest gets Kneecapped!.Well if you were rich and everyone was after your wealth you wont be knocking the status quo would you?.The only way to break this impasse,is by some emergency.Which after awhile this state of affairs tends to spontaeneously generate. Because lets face it..If all the money and power migrates to a few parties?.. by reason of keeping it safe they wont be up to much in the way of entrepenureship!...Yes folks in the end the have nots have always turned on the haves and send them to the guilitine!...Untill we accept the fact that the only way to get rid of the poor is to tax the rich.History will repeat.
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