Monthly net permanent migration to New Zealand was negative in March for the first month since November 2008 due to a jump in Christchurch residents leaving the quake-hit city, figures from Statistics New Zealand show.
Seasonally adjusted figures showed net 530 people left New Zealand to live permanently overseas as the number of people leaving Christchurch doubled from February to 1,100 in March, Stats NZ said.
Overall arrivals of permanent migrants had outnumbered departures by the same margin in February.
Australia was the most common destination for Christchurch residents, with 600 people leaving the city to go across the Tasman in March, up from 200 in February, Stats NZ said.
Meanwhile, unadjusted numbers show a net 3,584 people left New Zealand to live permanently in Australia in March, a record high for the month of March since 1981.
In March 4,365 New Zealand citizens left to live permanently in Australia (141 per day) while 817 returned, giving a net 3,548. The 3,584 total net migration referred to above includes non-citizens.
Some pressure off housing market
ASB economist Jane Turner said the figures showed New Zealanders fled to Australia due to the February quake. The negative net migration in March would also help take pressure off the housing market, she said.
"Before the earthquake, the trend of New Zealanders relocating to Australia was already in place, given Australia’s economic outperformance. However, the February earthquake has added substantially to the momentum, with the number of departures to Australia almost back to previous highs (on a seasonally-adjusted basis)," Turner said.
"Note, these are not people looking to temporarily escape the disruption in Christchurch, these are people who are planning to not return within the next 12 months. Australia was not the only country Cantabrians left for, with departures to India, China and other Asia also surging in March (ASB seasonally-adjusted estimates). This suggests family connections played a large part in the decision to leave," she said.
"The increased number of departures does help alleviate pressure on the housing supply, which is now severely compromised following the February earthquake."
Meanwhile a drop-off in short-term visitor arrivals in March suggested there was likely to be substantial disruption to the tourism industry due to the February quake.
"This comes as a particularly painful blow as foreign visitor spending in NZ has been declining over the past year due to lower average spend-per-visitor. In addition, the high NZD may act as a further deterrent to potential visitors over the next year. Nonetheless, the Rugby World Cup will help provide a temporary boost over the second half of the year," Turner said.
"The sharp drop in visitor arrivals and impact on tourism, along with the negative migration outflow, reinforces the RBNZ’s case for lower interest rates following the earthquake," she said.
(Updates with chart, ASB comment.)
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