Record July exodus to Australia

Immigration remains very weak, although Kiwis are travelling in record numbers

19th Aug 11, 11:42am by David Chaston

In July, for the first time since February 2011, more long-term migrants arrived in New Zealand than left; an increase of 386 people.

However, this is significantly lower than the positive level recorded in July 2010 of 1,386. The NZ$ rose briefly on the release of the data, but then fell to below 82 US cents.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, there was a net loss of 200 permanent and long-term migrants in July 2011. Monthly net migration has been negative since March 2011, when departures from Christchurch jumped following the 22 February earthquake that damaged the city.

Unadjusted figures showed 800 Christchurch residents departing to live overseas in July 2011, up from 500 in July 2010. Migrants arriving from overseas to settle in Christchurch numbered 400 in July 2011, down from 500 in July 2010.

The net outflow of migrants from New Zealand to Australia was 3,200 in July 2011, the highest recorded for a July month (records are available from 1978 onwards). The previous high for a July month was a net outflow of 2,900 in 1979.

For the year to July, 31,629 people left New Zealand permanently for Australia, a trend that has been accelerating since April 2010.

New Zealand had a net migration gain of 2,900 in the past year, down from 15,200 the previous year. The latest figure is below the average annual net migration gain of 12,000 over the last 20 years, and is the lowest net gain since the October 2001 year (1,700). The decrease in net migration, compared with 2010, was mainly due to an increase in departures to Australia.

Commenting in the data, ASB economists said the continued migration outflow reduces inflation pressures in the economy as it reduces demand for goods and services in New Zealand and helps relieve some of the pressure on the NZ tight housing market.

We anticipate that permanent departures might be close to peaking and expect monthly migration to return to net inflows by 2012.

Meanwhile, the visitor arrivals data highlights the weak underlying support for the tourism industry.

While the RWC will provide some temporary reprieve, we expect the coming year to remain challenging.

This is in contrast to the strong support commodity exports are enjoying.

Today’s data has no fresh implications for the RBNZ.

The RBNZ is expecting the RWC to generate $700 million in visitor spending. Given this boost is temporary, and not significantly adding to capacity pressures, the key concern for the RBNZ is separating the trend in the underlying economy from the RWC impact in economic data over the second half of 2011.

Kiwi travel surge

Overseas trips by Kiwis grew to 231,600 in July 2011, a record for any month.

The latest figure easily surpassed the previous high of 210,000 in September 2010, according to data released today by Statistics NZ.

'Various factors could have contributed to the record number of overseas trips,' Andrea Blackburn from the Department said. 'These include the later timing of the school holidays in 2011, favourable foreign exchange rates, and people delaying travel until July due to the flight disruptions in June caused by ash from Chile's Puyehue-Cordón Caulle volcano.'

There were big increases in trips to the United Kingdom, the United States, Thailand, Fiji, the Cook Islands, Singapore, Malaysia, and France. Except for Fiji and France, departures to each of these countries hit a new monthly high in July 2011.

In contrast, visitor arrivals decreased 4% in July 2011 compared with July 2010. Arrivals from China (up 1,700) provided the only large increase, with fewer visitors from Australia, Japan, the United States, the United Kingdom, and Korea.

In July 2011, 1,200 visitors recorded that they were here for the Rugby World Cup. This new data will be released monthly. There are more limitations than usual with this data – for example, in July not all arrival cards included a question about the World Cup.

Net long term migration

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Source: Statistics NZ

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23 Comments

by skudiv | 19th Aug 11, 12:49pm 1313714942

Saw an HSBC economist on telly this mornin, saying with only 5.1% unemployment Aussie has 'full employment' and unemployment should be around 5.4%. Pleanty of jobs over there to be lost if you want to have the ideal unemployment.

by Crazy Horse | 20th Aug 11, 5:45pm 1313819148

Sheeeesh Skudiv can I have what he's been smokin'...that economist is living in the land of make believe ... he is a classic example of why most of the Western werld is in the financial krap it is today .... how would he like it if his job was one of the ones that was "part of the percentages" .. but hey ! he works for a bank and remember friends we are all working for them one way or another.....I just wish these economists would all just F off or at the start of every written or spoken piece of crap that spurts forth, have a disclaimer ...."as my job requires me to increase returns to shareholders, board members and directors, every word I say from this point, is really a pile of horse manure" .......

by scarfie | 20th Aug 11, 8:11pm 1313827872

Not sure exactly what part you don't get there Crazy, but a percentage of unemployment is a healthy part of a capitalist system. You will find that in any encyclopedia if you care to look.

If unemployment gets too low then it causes excessive inflationary pressures on wages. No rocket science there, its the law of supply and demand.

But the trouble we face these days is that the bastardisation of capitalism means warning signals are obscured, so those in charge of the capital expenditure don't receive the signals they would normally get to take the foot of the pedal.

by Chris_J | 19th Aug 11, 4:02pm 1313726535

As residential red zones get resolved in ChCh, expect the exodus to Australia to pick.

With cash in hand, no CBD to speak of, difficult working environments, difficult shopping environments, lost jobs, and displaced family and friends it will be no surprise to find many want to take the leap to Australia.

Even more will relocate to other parts of NZ, especially as a year on, nearly no physical progress has been made towards recovery.

The biggest indication of the gloom must be the endless "for sale or lease" signs on undamaged properties around the perimeter of the CBD red zone. Even a brand new single level building (built to replace one that was damaged in September) in the favoured northern end of the CBD outside the red zone has lain empty for 2 months since completion with a for lease sign.

With virtually entire city blocks being razed, it's no surprise that 40,000 have already left and perhaps thousands more are in the process of leaving.

by FCM | 22nd Aug 11, 8:09am 1313957369

Yeap we have three leave work in past month 2 off to Auckland, 1 to OZ...really the guts has been ripped from CHC not much here for the young, and a lot of families are over CHC and will move on. I'm not really sure about the growth projections for CHC, there will be a lot of Temp jobs but anything realted to Tourism and hotels etc...it will be ten years before this investment comes back to the city.

by David B | 19th Aug 11, 4:29pm 1313728160

Why should Canterbury homeowners who are being bailed out by the taxpayer, be able to take their money and just bugger off to Australia with it? I don't think that's on. I'd even go so far as to say that that is quite selfish of them. That money should be paid out on the condition that it is used to purchase another home in NZ, or at the very least, is invested/spent in this country so it can benefit other New Zealanders who have stumped up with the cash in the first place.

by Nicholas Arrand | 19th Aug 11, 4:37pm 1313728642

Why? Would you like the Government to tell you what to do with your insurance money? Thta's what it is , after all. And I don't know if you know anyone who's been through the last 12 months in Christchurch, but their nerves and finances are pretty much shot. Why relocate to another part of one of the most earthquake prone countries in the world if you have an alternative? Life's too short....

by Gummy Bear Hero | 19th Aug 11, 4:55pm 1313729748

Yes St. Nick , at the core of the issue it is simply homeowners receiving their insurance money . They're free to utilize it as they please .

......having been near Christchurch during the Sept. 4 and the Feb. 22 'quakes , I can say that I'd blame no one for choosing to leave the area permanently .

For me , the sight of Christchurch's CBD , so ruined ... the Cathedral nearly wrecked ... has left a sense that the city will never recover the charm that it once had ...

... but then again , hope springs eternal , and maybe the re-build will be successful in re-vitalizing the old lass .

by David B | 19th Aug 11, 5:10pm 1313730603

I'm not talking about insurance money; I'm talking about money that will come from the New Zealand taxpayer. i.e., money that will come directly from the government to each holder of a condemned red zone property that the govt. is buying, (excluding any monies recovered from insurance).

Insurance is a private matter, taxpayer’s money is not. The two shouldn’t be mixed up or treated the same in my view.

I'm a tax payer in this country and I should be entitled to expect something back (a social dividend) from those who benefit from my taxes.

by LAJ | 19th Aug 11, 5:55pm 1313733338

EQC is also insurance which we pay a premium for and if you read the Act, land is covered for its market value before the event which destroyed it occurred. The 2008 GV is the proxy for the market value as at Sept 2011.

There doesn't seem to be enough properties for sale at the moment which is pushing prices up so where are these martyrs to the cause supposed to live?

I think anyone who begrudges these people the chance to move on after a year of uncertainty and fear needs to have a long think about how they would feel if it happened to them and what they would think was fair if it was their house and their poor kids. Any out of towners are free to come and help rebuild the city and invest their money here. Don't want to put all your eggs in this shaky basket? Well why would anyone else want to given the chance to escape?

by Kunst | 19th Aug 11, 4:53pm 1313729632

David you are so contradictive - mixing up things.

Some home -owners lost so much, looking for opportunities overseas to make better money is and should be a free option in western societies.

Some capitalistic brains are limited to selfishness only - David's article a classical.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 19th Aug 11, 5:07pm 1313730440

It's international apostrophe day , Walter ! ... Did you know that ?... Crikey , the stuff you learn after Bernard's done his guest spot on Radio National ......

.......International Apostrophe Day :.. Well , if we didn't get a day off work for it , then I don't give a flying f''''''k that it's international bl'''''''dy bleeding frigging f'''''''''''''g apostrophe day .... C'''''''''ts !

by Kunst | 19th Aug 11, 6:52pm 1313736764

see Bernard - another example of rhetoric – propagandistic, capitalistic garrulousness - useless apostrophic.

by Gummy Bear Hero | 19th Aug 11, 7:02pm 1313737340

They are arrogant little w''''''''kers , those apostrophes ...... You reckon we should have an International Day of Swiss Cheese instead ? ... Or a celebration of your famous Cuckoo Clock !

by Kunst | 19th Aug 11, 7:15pm 1313738129

No - we must absent these special days and celebrations and really concentrate on the RWC - Roger

by David B | 19th Aug 11, 5:13pm 1313730805

Can anyone else hear the sound of the wind whistling through the holes in a moldy block of cheese?

by Gummy Bear Hero | 19th Aug 11, 5:31pm 1313731906

Swiss cheese ?

by Kunst | 19th Aug 11, 7:03pm 1313737411

Correct Roger - the candidate has two points one for the cheese one for the holes.

David, we are still awaiting order for the "Swiss cheese holes" coated with chocolate. Weekend special 10 x 25mm3 in a gift box NZ$ 40.-

by Kunst | 19th Aug 11, 6:58pm 1313737081

David – great it seems your poetical streak is far better developed, then writing sensible comments about economical/ financial issues.

by Matt in Auck | 20th Aug 11, 3:24pm 1313810691

Migrants arriving from overseas to settle in Christchurch numbered 400 in July 2011, down from 500 in July 2010.

I'm astounded at such a small decrease. Who are these 400 migrants?

Why are they migrating to ChCh?

returning cantabs?

by Crooked Thumb | 20th Aug 11, 4:48pm 1313815699

Must be demolition workers or otherwise pretty desperate people. It ain't much fun here, not in the Red Zone where I live. Even our potholes have got potholes.

I have heard many, many people say to me, or about RedZoners generally, how fortunate we are to be getting a "Government bailout". Perhaps from outside the Zone it seems that way, but can I offer a different perspective:

1. If the Government did nothing, we insured would get our houses fixed or rebuilt, land remediated or compensation for its loss, municipal services restored, communities largely preserved. Insurance looking forward could be a problem, just like it is for citizens of California and Japan. Those communities seem to endure though.

2. There are engineering solutions to the land quality problem for most RedZoners, Safety in one's home from quakes is not really an issue, despite what Mr Brownlee utters.

3. The real beneficiary of the "Government bailout" is the City Council, It won't have to replace a lot of munted infrastructure, some of which was well past its use by date anyway. Instead the displaced populace, if they don't leave town, will pay for replacement infrastructure when they, or the people they buy homes from, buy sections in new subdivisions. Quite a nice cost shifting arrangement.

4. For most people, neither option 1 nor option 2 will put them back in as good a situation as they were pre-quake. For us personally, under the ideal outcome we might come out with some pluses to counter the more obvious negatives. For that I am grateful, though not to the Government.

One could take the attitude that this part of NZ has had its seismic activity for the next 100 to 150 years, so now it's as safe a place to live, if not safer, than most parts of NZ.

by pwilkie | 20th Aug 11, 9:10pm 1313831419

matt---maybe a few of these these camper,s are returning home--q/land not a good place to be re steady employment at the present time---unemployment stats here should be treated with caution--significant underemployment going on ---the building industry is broken down on the side of the road and someone,s nicked the wheels --it,s kicking off a chain reaction further down the line re supplier,s etc--the mining and coal seam gas industry,s are booming but the benefit,s aren,t getting to the city,s on the coast

http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/influx-of-new-zealanders-to-gold-coast-raises-fears-of-homelessness-crime-and-health-issues/story-e6freoof-1226114421719

have a look at the comments---not good

by Eagle | 20th Aug 11, 6:13pm 1313820785

Want them back ?

Scrap the ETS, get the cost of food and living down, stop selling off the family silver. Develop the Great South Basin and get into the LNG market, Get the dollar down and boost tourism with temporary subsidies if need be to get people here. Network with Singapore and propel our university's and educational system into world class centres of excellence and research. Get people breeding again, before we end up like Italy. Just a start of the brainstorm......