Bernard Hickey details the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am in association with Bank of New Zealand, including news the International Monetary Fund has cut its economic growth forecasts for Asia this year and next to around 6.3% and 6.7% respectively from almost 7% for both years previously.
Weak Chinese trade figures late yesterday also saw commodity prices and commodity-exposed currencies such as the New Zealand dollar fall on fears China's slowdown could turn into a hard landing.
Bloomberg reported China's exports rose in September at their slowest pace in 7 months as its customs ministry warned of "severe challenges." Both export growth and import growth in China was weaker than economists expected.
China's export engine and its demand for imports is seen as crucial for both Australia and New Zealand, not to mention the rest of the developed world.
Prices fell for copper, which is seen as a proxy for demand from China for the raw materials needed for infrastructure building.
European stocks fell 1.5% overnight, including a 3.7% fall for European banks. A Credit Suisse note said 66 banks would fail new European stress tests and there are fresh signs of stress in interbank credit markets. The range for LIBOR (London Interbank Offer Rate) also hit its highest level since September 2009 and German banks have begun preparing for 60% haircuts on their Greek assets, which was worse than many expected. See more here at Reuters.
Also in Europe, the world's second largest retailer Carrefour downgraded its profit forecast for the second time in three months, saying a slump in Europe would cut profits 20%. Carrefour shares fell 5%.
US stocks were down 0.2% in late trade after JP Morgan cut its profit forecast and said it would cut 1,000 jobs. Oil prices fell.
The New Zealand dollar dropped to 79.3 USc from close to 80 USc yesterday morning, but remains up 3c from a week ago.
Meanwhile, in the most important news, Aaron Cruden has been named at first five, Richie McCaw's foot is named to start along with the rest of Richie McCaw, Richard Kahui starts on the wing, Israel Dagg is at fullback and both Sonny Bill Williams and Stephen Donald are named on the bench.
Lets hope Aaron Cruden can last the whole game.
Go the All Blacks! I've done my bit, brandishing the lucky black fist. See more on the All Black team here at Stuff.
(Updated with links, All Black team)
No chart with that title exists.
20 Comments
The F.I.R.E parasites have reached critical mass and the host will die. Those who have bet on a leveraged EFSF saving Greece should invest in some lube. Here are some real numbers
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/math-behind-greek-myth
Also Itali will need some cash in the near future.
Chinese have a better standard of life then Americans
http://www.thetrader.se/2011/10/12/chinese-struggle-less-than-americans-to-put-food-on-the-table/
Best of all Prime-X has gone below par = RMBS CDS (Think regular bank mortgages + securitisation + insurance + attempting to fly by jumping off a cliff)
The bailouts were supposed to prevent all this stuff from happening. The $2bln we spent in NZ bailing out SCF was wasted it has prevented nothing, nor was it designed to prevent anything. It was just to help out TPTB and look after their money.
The cancer has grown and the death of the patient is inevitable. China is not immune to this, nor is NZ. The rot has set in, and will spread over the globe.
and for some early attempts at flight
Prime X explained:
http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2011/10/11/699021/a-primex-primer-also-featuring-abx/
good article and comments from ft
"The Prime Minister has indicated the Government will chase more cash from the Rena's owners than the estimated liability it already faces".herald
If the Germans can't get $ out of the Greeks, what hope has Key!
and the ship is insured with $1billion for pollution cover....wonder if they are with AMI....!
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/jp-morgans-bet-against-jp-morgan-2011-…
Banks now betting against themselves !
Greg Pytel,
Finally, years too late some politicians and experts have started realising the obvious: the 2008 crisis exposed the financial system as dysfunctional and that it did not serve the real economy anymore. Therefore any economic stimulus must not have gone through the banks, as it would never reach the business but instead would be consumed the financial pyramid. A government help for businesses must be provided directly.
http://gregpytel.blogspot.com/2011/10/state-investment-bank-and-europea…
Stranger than fiction,
Barclays Capital analyst John Clemmow recommended investors who believed in stronger dairy prices to buy the New Zealand dollar as a proxy.
"New Zealand is the Saudi Arabia of milk supplying almost 40% of globally traded market," he said.
"The net result is that despite the myriad of domestic factors that impact the local economy, the New Zealand dollar trades almost exclusively on what milk is doing."
He suggested a pair trade of buying the New Zealand dollar while selling the Australian dollar, which appears threatened by talk of waning emerging market demand for metals.
http://www.agrimoney.com/news/nz-eases-tanker-limits-to-cope-with-milk-…
This development could have an additional negative economic/ environmental impact on Europe and North Africa soon – even in some other places.
13/10/2011 @ 09:45– Of the 50 tourists evacuated of La Restinga on Tuesday, 15 still remain on the island. The majority of the tourists have decided to return to their country of origin, but some have decided to remain on the island. It has now been 15 days since some of the residents were evacuated from their homes.
http://www.canariesnews.com/2011/09/28/el-hierro-earthquakes-update/
Geologic events take worrisome turn on Canary’s El Hierro Island.
http://theextinctionprotocol.wordpress.com/2011/10/13/geologic-events-t…
"the International Monetary Fund has cut its economic growth forecasts for Asia this year and next to around 6.3% and 6.7% respectively from almost 7% for both years previously"
Better not tell John Key that.
His breezy optimism for the economy is based on bullish predictions for Asia at Treasury (that paragon of competence).
Various commentators (including various blogging on this site) have suggested that this optimism is based on very specious premises, but have been waved impatiently aside.
Perhaps after the election there might be some reconsideration, but not before.
Cheers
Will Maritime NZ learn anything from the shipwreck oil disaster?...probably not.
Should there be 24/7 radar monitoring of all such vessels within 50km of the coast?...yes
Does that mean such a radar facility will be set up?.....no
Will it happen again?......yes.
Is it difficult to have a radio link open and operational with whomever is on the 'bridge' of these ships at all times inside 50km of the shore? ......no
Is Maritime NZ likely to establish said system in conjunction with radar?.....no
How often is the coastline under threat of oil spill from such ships?....frequently
Why do we have a Maritime NZ bureaucracy?......who knows!
The Gravy Channel.....
"Television New Zealand top bosses have scored big pay rises while laying off staff and cutting costs.
The company annual report tabled in Parliament this week showed the highest earner - believed to be chief executive Rick Ellis - was paid $910,000 to $920,000 in the year to June 30, compared to $750,000 to $760,000 for the previous year." herald
There has evidently been a 30% increase this year of those eaning over $100,000, so all good for those with the skills/experience in demand. Others, instead of moaning, should look to upskilling and do something about it, but no the easy way is to sit back and decry the others.
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