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BusinessDesk: "We have seen a pretty encouraging trend in the US economic data over the last two months"

BusinessDesk: "We have seen a pretty encouraging trend in the US economic data over the last two months"

Better-than-expected numbers on the US housing and labour markets, as well as business activity in the world's largest economy bolstered equities in Europe and on Wall Street, outweighing a challenging debt auction for Italy.

In afternoon trading in New York, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.81 percent, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 0.71 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index advanced 0.62 percent. Trading volumes were thin with many traders on holiday until the new year.

"We have seen a pretty encouraging trend in the US economic data over the last two months," Peter Jankovskis, co-chief investment officer at OakBrook Investments in Lisle, Illinois, told Reuters. "If that trend continues, that will provide good support and perhaps some upward momentum."

A US Labor Department report showed that the four-week moving average of Americans applying for unemployment benefits fell to 375,000 last week, the lowest level since June 2008.

In another indication of strength for the US economy, the index of pending home sales rose 7.3 percent to the highest level since April 2010, data from the National Association of Realtors showed. Economists forecast a 1.5 percent gain, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey.

And while the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago said its business barometer fell to 62.5 this month from 62.6 in November, economists polled by Bloomberg had forecast the gauge would decline to 61.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index closed the day 0.9 percent stronger also riding high on the US economic data.

Even so, a tough debt auction for Italy, which sold 7 billion euros of bonds, was a stark reminder of the challenges ahead for the country that needs to raise about 450 billion euros through bond markets next year.

Investors demanded a yield of 6.98 percent on the 10-year paper at the auction, a level considered unsustainable, even as it was lower than the 7.56 percent they required a month ago.

"Buying 10-year Italian bonds is a leap of faith which investors are prepared to take only at very high interest rates," Nicholas Spiro of Spiro Sovereign Strategy told Reuters. "There are simply too many risks and uncertainties surrounding Italy."

Italy's 3-year bonds met better demand, with yields at auction at 5.62 percent, compared with the 7.89 percent that the nation paid last month.

"Auctions held yesterday and today went rather well, this is encouraging but the financial turbulence absolutely isn't over," Italy Prime Minister Mario Monti said during a traditional end-year press conference, Reuters reported. "A lot of work remains to be done but from this point on, this work has to be done in Europe above all."

Monti added that the European Financial Stability Facility needs "significantly greater" resources but declined to quantify how much more was required, Reuters said.


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But not in Europe, 

Eurozone credit crunch fears on M3 money contraction

Europe is at mounting risk of a fresh credit crunch after the eurozone money supply contracted for a second month in November and the volume of private loans began to shrink.

 "US and other auto manufacturers banking on increased car sales in China for 2012 have three reasons to be concerned.

 1.Blistering growth in Chinese auto sales is expected to plunge
2.China is taking efforts to dampen foreign investment in autos
3.Trade wars"


This spin about the usa in recovery is utter rubbish. We have had this same spin on the US farce since 08...always...ALWAYS it is followed by the truth leaking out.....

The unemployment data is distorted every which way possible and then is just a load of crap.

The housing data has been exposed as total garbage for the last three years...revised down...seriously down....the real estate liars have been caught out...big time.

The  Fed govt has once again run out of money and the debt ceiling has to be raised...again it will be long into the future....

Any suggestion that USA is on a road to recovery is total hogwash


Dear Mr Hickey, please to change the headings from 'news' to "spin" or as an aid to the nations illiterate.....perhaps an icon of a flying pink pig!

I think a better heading would have been

Spin and Seasonal Adjustments on US Employment Data saves Today


Following 4 weeks of supposed improvements in the labor picture courtesy of declining initial jobless claims, even as we all know too well that Wall Street has been firing thousands and thousands of highly paid bankers and CNBC talking heads left and right (are bankers too good for that $400/week paycheck from Uncle Sam?) today initial claims for the week ended December 24 once again resumed their drift higher, printing at 381k, up 15k from the perpetually upward revised prior week total of 366K (previously 364K). And as usual, the Seasonal Adjustment process smoothed out a whooping jump in actual terminations of 69k, which rose from 421K to 490K. Continuing claims also rose by 34K, from 3567K (upwardly revised, duh) to 3601K. Finally, those on EUCs and Extended Benefits once again saw a net drop off from the 99 week cliff as more and more people fall out out of the workforce in perpetuity following 2 years of being unable to find a job. 

The USA is on the up.  Have 3 guys from Nth Carolina, single, in early 20's, here at present for Xmas-New Years and they say things are not too bad at all now. There was a trough 18 mths ago but they are presently pretty bouyant about things. They plan to tour around NZ until mid- Feb, then on to Australia until end of March.  One is my cousin and he is an entrepreneur, says projects are starting to take off again quite nicely. They have been intrigued by cricket, so we've been down to the beach for some beach cricket.

Thanks, Muzza. I keep saying on forums like this one - "the USA" is a collection of State economies almost as disparate as "the EU". If California was a separate country, there would have been no "crisis" at all on Wall Street or "the USA". "The USA" could have handled the relatively minor problems in Detroit and Las Vegas and Miami and Atlanta just as a matter of long-term course.

MOST of the States of the USA are still low regulation, business friendly, employer friendly; with no urban growth boundaries, spatial plans or drawn out permission processes. Housing and land and property is ridiculously cheap, to the minds of people used to "planned" urban economies like NZ and Australia. The cost of buying land and building a factory is ridiculously low. They had no bubble and no bust, in approximately 44 States.

Under-rating the effect of this on economies, is an endemic failure even among the specialist economics profession today. Of course the USA is the only economy in the world today worth investing in, starting a business in, or emigrating to. Just don't go to California or any other "liberal" leftwing politically correct Green "save the snails" dystopias - or any where gouging public employee pension plans are on their way to bankrupting the local and/or State government. (These conditions are usually present simultaneously).

If the USA tossed California out of the Union, it would become overnight the world's fastest-growing economy for the next 2 decades at least.

And "free markets" have "failed"? Bollocks. The only part of the world that remains the closest to the free market ideal, especially regarding urban economies, is the only part of the world still functioning, and with a future, today.


I agree, If you excluded California everything would be ok! Hang on..of the top of my head isn't California 20%+ of US population, Is'nt this a bit like the old joke about how to lose 10 Kg of ugly fat..chop off your head?

California produces a lot of technology which is required by the rest of the union so I find your analysis as usual fatuous.

As for "free markets", yes they have failed because if you are referring to Texas then your ongoing analysis is akin to saying there is no water shortage when you live on top of a spring, whilst downstream everyone starves

http://www.fcpp. org/images/ publications/ Cyprus%20letter. pdf

This is an open letter from the Chief Executive of Cypress Semiconductors, to the Bay Area Regional Council.

The second-to-last paragraph:

".....our days of investing in California were over. We would never subject ourselves or our shareholders again to public insults by an anti-business politician over a destructive tax that never should have been passed. We have invested nothing more in our San Jose fab and will soon sell it, to complete the move of the very last of our manufacturing facilities out of the state of California. With only a few exceptions, the silicon has indeed been forced out of Silicon Valley....."

Do read the whole thing. He refers to two acronyms that he says are common in the US business community: "GTT" stands for "Gone To Texas" and "ABC" stands for "Anywhere But California".

I don't see any point in your reference to Texas. The entire USA is resource abundant and capable of thriving economically. Texas has not been the stand-out that it currently is, until quite recently, and this is because it is the largest State that remains true to the original ideals of "the USA". Numerous smaller States are doing at least as well or better, under stupid left-wing liberals radars, of course. How can hicks and rednecks with their guns and religion possibly be worth taking any notice of?

Another rightwing rant from PhilBest.

Another bunch of inconvenient facts provokes the usual knee-jerk denial from the terminally ignorant leftwingers among us.

Great stuff Muzza, I have Warren over for a stay and he's just bursting with enthusiam about the American farce..oops sorry...American economy...Warren cannot understand why fifty million near enough are in poverty and why property blew its guts week Ben will be here and I'm sure he will come padded out in wads of banknotes...

Nothing so blind as Amercians who have access to family capital and can trot off to NZ for some hols and a break from the wealthy recovering debt free American winter...

yurk ....spew.

Very true...


PhilBest, your analysis is very good.

Wolly, may be time to take a breather? You get yourself too worked up if something doesn't seem to meet your preconceived outlook

I don't have a predetermined position Muzza....I just have a heap more experience and would not trust the judgement of your three "experts"....."three single early 20s"...harrrhahahaaaaa

Agree with you wolly. I've met a few young travelling spaniards recently, nice people and cheerful and optimistic but clearly children of the wealthy, and since when do youth get concerned with finance? It's only us grumpy old bastards

Seems to me Matt, that the 'create a class' social science degree rorters are missing a trick here....scope for a whole new set of studies...let's call them the  'science of spin' doubt the mugs who borrow to pay the fees and soak up the shite will call them the BS bag....

So many sub courses are there for the taking....start out at SoS 101...'basic lying by govt'.

Advance to ...the 'art of media manipulation by govt'.....ditto by corporates....

Level 3 is into the real filth...'How banks corrupt economies'....and the 'devious role of the RBNZ'....or the 'Polly to board of directors greater abuse of power'....'why local govts fail rate payers'.....

Gosh there is probably more than enough to warrant a whole degree...the BBS....all the way past an MBS to the PhD level....Doctor BS.....what a thing to aim for! Guaranteed job under Sir Humphrey.

PB misses so much its funny.....rule 1 the USA needs copious quantities of cheap oil and by cheap I mean <50USD a barrel....and copious, 3%+ more per year to grow at 4%.....and we have oil at $100USD and no oil output growth...the free markets are determining who buys the oil via price...

Many of the US states are in a terrible financial position...oh and California had a Republican as a Governor...didnt do them any good.


And YOU miss so much, including facts held under your nose, that it is NOT funny.

The USA is rapidly commercialising centuries worth of supply of shale oil and gas; so is their northern supplier Canada.

The States that are in a terrible financial position are the leftwing, "big government", tax-it, regulate-it, subsidise-it States. Fortunately for the USA and the whole world, these are a minority.

The "Republican" Governor did try to reform California.

From Michael Lewis, "California And Bust"

"...........His view of his seven years trying to run the state of California can be summarized as follows. He came to power accidentally, but not without ideas about what he wanted to do. At his core he thought government had become more problem than solution: an institution run less for the benefit of the people than for the benefit of politicians and other public employees. He behaved pretty much as Americans seem to imagine the ideal politician should behave: he made bold decisions without looking at polls; he didn’t sell favors; he treated his opponents fairly; he was quick to acknowledge his mistakes and to learn from them; and so on. He was the rare elected official who believed, with some reason, that he had nothing to lose, and behaved accordingly. When presented with the chance to pursue an agenda that violated his own narrow political self-interest for the sake of the public interest, he tended to leap at it. “There were a lot of times when we said, ‘You just can’t do that,’ ” says his former chief of staff, Susan Kennedy, a lifelong Democrat, whose hiring was one of those things a Republican governor was not supposed to do. “He was always like, ‘I don’t care.’ Ninety percent of the time it was a good thing.”

Two years into his tenure, in mid-2005, he’d tried everything he could think of to persuade individual California state legislators to vote against the short-term desires of their constituents for the greater long-term good of all. “To me there were shocking moments,” he says. “When you want to do pension reform for the prison guards,” he says, “and all of a sudden the Republicans are all lined up against you. It was really incredible, and it happened over and over: people would say to me, ‘Yes, this is the best idea! I would love to vote for it! But if I vote for it some interest group is going to be angry with me, so I won’t do it.’ I couldn’t believe people could actually say that. You have soldiers dying in Iraq and Afghanistan, and they didn’t want to risk their political lives by doing the right thing.”

He came into office with boundless faith in the American people—after all, they had elected him—and figured he could always appeal directly to them. That was his trump card, and he played it. In November 2005 he called a special election that sought votes on four reforms: limiting state spending, putting an end to the gerrymandering of legislative districts, limiting public-employee-union spending on elections, and lengthening the time it took for public-school teachers to get tenure. All four propositions addressed, directly or indirectly, the state’s large and growing financial mess. All four were defeated; the votes weren’t even close. From then until the end of his time in office he was effectively gelded: the legislators now knew that the people who had elected them to behave exactly the way they were already behaving were not going to undermine them when appealed to directly. The people of California might be irresponsible, but at least they were consistent.

A compelling book called Cal­ifornia Crackup describes this problem more generally. It was written by a pair of journalists and nonpartisan think-tank scholars, Joe Mathews and Mark Paul, and they explain, among other things, why Arnold Schwarze­neg­ger’s experience as governor was going to be unlike any other experience in his career: he was never going to win....."

Im with Wally,



There are approximately $55 trillion of banking assets in the EU. This compares to only $13 trillion in the US. Bank assets in the EU are 4 times as large as in the US.

In the US, debt held by the bank is smaller because retail deposits are a primary source of funds. EU banks use wholesale lending and, as a consequence, the debt held by banks is close to 80% versus less than 20% by US banks.

Wholesale bank lending in the EU approximates $30 trillion versus only $3 trillion in the US, a 10 X differential.

Wholesale lending is fundamentally borrowing from money market funds and other very short term, unsecured instruments. The banks borrow short and lend long. It all works until short term money gets scarce or expensive. 

Both have occurred in the EU and this recently placed Dexia into bankruptcy, forcing it to be taken over by the Belgian and French governments. The unsecured bond market fundamentally closed in the EU in Q3 2011, as fears mounted that an EU solution was not forthcoming.

Assuming $30 trillion of loans is spread over three years, EU banks have a requirement for $800 billion a month of rollover financing for wholesale lending outstanding.

All aboard....this 'Swedish' economic boat comes with Swedish maids! and no debts....take the helm AJ....I intend biffing rocks at the sinking mess we left behind us.

Looking at the bigger picture perhaps are now beyond "free markets"  Its becoming all about central planning, control and manipulation to try and correct an impending disaster.


In 1933, Irving Fisher published a paper in the Federal Reserve’s Econometrica circular that amounted to a point-by-point logical deduction of the string of events that led to the unusual collapse of the economic and banking systems.  

For Fisher, the combination of over-indebtedness and deflation was the toxic mix from which the calamity grew.  But within that mix lay a paradox that formed a trap by which no self-made recovery was possible:



“…if the over-indebtedness with which we started was great enough, the liquidations of debts cannot keep up with the fall of prices which it causes.  In that case, the liquidation defeats itself.  While it diminishes the number of dollars owed, it may not do so as fast as it increases the value of each dollar owed.  Then, the very effort of individuals to less their burden increases it, because the mass effect of the stampede to liquidate in swelling each dollar owed.  Then we have the great paradox which, I submit, is the chief secret of most, if not all, great depressions:  the more the debtors pay, the more they owe.  The more the economic boat tips, the more it tends to tip.  It is not tending to right itself, but is capsizing.”

The lessons of this paradox are interwoven into the fabric of modern/conventional economics, that whenever deflation might be present a recovery has to be forced since it cannot start on its own.  But it is extremely curious that only one half of the equation was chosen as an outcast:  deflation.  Over-indebtedness has, obviously, been warmly embraced in the decades since Fisher’s proposition.  The development of the mainstream of economics has led to the belief that intentional inflation can always defeat deflation, and therefore debt can assume a role, even a primary role, within the schematic of economic stewardship.

3 Christmas and New Year Cheers – people make a comprehensive, worldwide overall judgment. We are interconnected to so many accumulating and accelerating negative events on many fronts.

 Trade- & currency wars, political unrest & wars, climate change, natural & man made disasters, epidemics, corruption & greed. The list is shier endless and new cases appear almost daily - show me the money just tp pay what we (aready) destroyed !


this blogsite is infested with anti-american ,small minded sad,  enviro talebanist dorks who need to give their computers a rest, and think about how they might contribute to moving NZ forward in 2012

Yeah I contribution will be to continue exposing the political lies and banking scam behaviour....what are you doing?

raising a family , paying taxes , not moving to Oz unless Grant Robertson becomes PM ,   presenting arguments on blogsites  in favour of much greater exploitation of NZ minerals and big increases in quality immigration.As time permits Id also like to  lobby for a US Marines permanent presence in NZ as they are doing in Darwin , scrapping the ETS rort,disbanding of apartheid Maori separatist  policy nonsense like Whanau Ora .

Isn't 'raising a family the same as producing sprogs....7 billion and counting....can other people afford your family effort gonz?

I'm for selling a 99 year lease for a port in the Chathams to Beijings geriatric leadership...think of the benefits....and a 99 year lease to Washington for a port base down Bluff way.


Well put the Marines at Kaitaia - ------ deleted ------ or be overwhelmed

"Well put the Marines at Kaitaia - --------..."


Oh oh, looks like another rightwinger having a meltdown. Funny how the nazi racism lurking just below the surface explodes all of a sudden.

And all from a self proclaimed  ( white ) hardworking patriotic family man too.

Might as well free up the gun laws while you are at it so it becomes a right not a privilege. Curious to know why you want US Marines here? Surely we should implement compulsory military trainging and just hand out guns to everybody.

How about tightening up on eligibility to vote since some clearly aren't qualified to do so. Perhaps if we look at land ownership being a pre-requisite, that should sort a lot of the Maori's out. 

Thanks, goNZ, for that. That for me is's comment of the year!

We aim to please !

How about goNZ's rant about 'chinks', you on board with that too, David B?

this blogsite is infested with anti-american ,small minded sad,  enviro talebanist dorks who need to give their computers a rest, and think about how they might contribute to moving NZ forward in 2012

I don't see any reference to 'chinks' in goNZ's comment above, south paw, do you? Perhaps you've woken up feeling a little extra sensitive today? Might one enquire, are you a vegetarian?

And what will you be doing in 2012 to move NZ forward, south paw?

I asked you if you were on board about your right wing nutter friend's rant about 'chinks'. It's just a few comments above.

Astoundingly you have nothing to say about it,  kind of like most Germans had nothing to say about the Jews being shipped out of their neighbourhoods.

You think your racist friend is moving NZ foward do you?



south paw is in breach of Godwin's Rule of Nazi Analogies

To quote from the law:

For example, there is a tradition in many newsgroups and other Internet discussion forums that once such a comparison is made, the thread is finished and whoever mentioned the Nazis has automatically lost whatever debate was in progress.


Your getting a bit over excited south paw,

I'd take a herbal supplement and have a nice little lie down if i was you, dear.

A racist spiel is not debating.

The team at agree.

Yes, indeed the festive season does seem to bring the best (tolerance, rational thinking, manners, etc.) out in people doesn't it?  

It does, however, seem to be struggling in your case.

You are cheerleading goNZ who rants about 'chinks' invading NZ.

Actually with Bernard on holiday , we are just making the most of  having a robust debate !

"Well put the Marines at Kaitaia - -----------------  think twice about arriving uninvited..."

Thats your idea of making the most of robust debate is it, goNZ?

I doubt people from Inodonesia have an issue being called Indonesians.

As for the Chinese, well, -------------------------.

"As for the Chinese, -----------------------."

Great another raving right wing racist. This site is infested with them.

Ok bloggists  - apologies for using the ' c ' word  , I presume other controversial words like Japs or Pakeha are ok tho?   I have been threatened with deregistration so in the spirit of that I refuse further comment til next year 

Ah so...a chink in your armour gonz!

 The following is a list of ethnic slurs (ethnophaulisms) that are, or have been, used as insinuations or allegations about members of a given ethnicity or to refer to them in a derogatory (critical or disrespectful), pejorative (disapproving or contemptuous), or insulting manner in the English-speaking world. For the purposes of this list, an ethnic slur is a term or word[s] used to insult on the basis of race, ethnicity, or nationality. Each term is listed followed by its country or region of usage, a definition, and a reference to that term.

Ethnic slurs may also be produced by combining a general-purpose insult with the name of ethnicity, such as "dirty Jew", "Russian pig", "stupid American", etc. Other common insulting modifiers include "dog", "filthy", etc. Such terms are not included in this list.

Contents:  A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z



I'm sure goNaZi is already familiar with a lot of those racist slurs.

The original offending phrase appears to have been deleted.

However, I believe GoNZ said nothing about immigrants, only about possible invasion by the Communist Totalitarian government of China. I think it is the most absurd naive pacifism to NOT be concerned about the possibility of the latter, should our current cosy free-loading on the defence efforts of the USA and Australia cease to be an option.

Personally, I welcome Chinese immigrants as long as they are not stooges of the aforesaid government. I have often said on this forum, that the Asians who hold a "Going Bananas" conference every few years are simply some of the most desirable immigrants we can get from anywhere.

A "Banana", by the way, is yellow on the outside and white on the inside; these people use the term of themselves as a badge of honour. They have got a lot more respect for Western civilisation than the European leftwing cultural self-suicidal lemmings with which our society is infested.

Maybe I'm just a namby pamby PC leftie, but shouldn't a comment like this from goNZ get him kicked off:

"Well put the Marines at Kaitaia - -----------------------  think twice about arriving uninvited..."

What's next from goNZ or his friends on here? A psychotic rant about 'niggers' or 'kikes'?


A psychotic rant about.........'?

Talk about the kettle calling the pot black! The only time I have ever seen the racist terms N..... and K...... used on this site, south paw, it has being from you!

You got serious problems David B.

It is clear I am using those terms as comparable examples of the  kind of racism and hatred your mate goNaZi expresses.

You're obviously just another little racist right winger too, trying to cover for your mate.



I had nothing to do with it Bernard...keep the cheques coming...!

Wolly, who said our American guests were experts, they were just saying how they were finding things there at present.  We all know there is really only one real expert in your mind.

Soto del Henares, a bust Spanish housing estate. Says it all on misallocation of capital on a monumental scale.

Thanks for that. Went to Seville last year and that was like steeping out of a time machine. A lot of people unemployed.

Good stuff GONZ! Whilst I dont necessarily agree with all the sentiments you express, I do applaud your sense of nationalism. It makes a fine change from the constant dirge of "the end is nigh" stuff that makes these threads so tedious.

The point you make is that we have options. We have the luxury of being a water rich, isolated, thinly populated, temperate climate blessed, safe food produceing powerhouse, sitting on a pile of mineralsand  oil that we have the luxury of debateing whether we should exploit or not.

New Zealand needs to recognise that we are becoming more internationally relevant by the week. The things we have are the things others seek. We have to start to grow a set and stand up for whats best for us not sellout to the first foriegn bidder  for short term gain. Lets make the most of our opportunities, retain control and play the long game. The world might be in a shithouse state but if you,d want to be anywhere it would be right here.


S shagger - you'd better rattle your daggs.

By the time Gonzo's gang are finished, your description won't apply.

PDK, The point being we have the luxury of having the debate.

I personally wouldnt be in favour of opencasting the likes of Great Barrier island for example but it doesnt mean we shouldnt do it at Denniston. Im completely in favour of the water storage for large scale irrigation projects but it doesnt mean we have to allow unconsented dairy conversions on inapproppriate soil types or locations. Infact making it more affordable upfront makes it more likely that arable and drystock farmers have the need to change

These are just my views... as I say, we at least have the resources in the first place to have the luxury of the debate. Most places on the planet would swap their issues for ours anyday. 

Yeah, 4 million Kiwis are going to strip NZ of its resources like ravening locusts. Never mind that most of the rest of the world is populated several times more densely, including several countries that are still nowhere near running out of resources.

What an idiot. Stop wasting everyone's time on this forum.

Rather ironic that racists like goNz talk down the likes of the "chinks" who breed like rabbits and then talks up greater exploitation of nz's minerals, the end market for which is likely to be those "chinks".
Nz's Pauline hanson?

Whilst I agree GoNZ demeans himself and his arguements with references to  "chinks", I like his challenges to contributors to consider how they personally are going to helpmove NZ foreward in 2012.

For me that will be to capitalise on our fantasitic terms of trade by maximiseing this seasons beef and lamb and wool crop, paying down some debt, paying my taxes, helping bring my daughters up to be upstanding New Zealanders of the next generation, continuing to volunteer for various community organisations and generally trying to be a good citizen... I wont be pissing off to Adelaide and then proceed to whinge endlessly about how unworthy NZ was of me. 

Agreed Mr Shagger, right on.


"Whilst I agree GoNZ demeans himself and his arguements with references to  "chinks", I like his challenges to contributors..."

Its racist vitriolic abuse, its something Gobbels or skin heads would applaud. Incredibly you don't seem to understand that. You obviously think its ok to have that kind of content posted.

As for goNazi's 'challenges' about 'moving NZ foward', he's got about as much credibility as the Catholic Church has to 'challenge' the rest of us to personally do something about child sex abuse in 2012.


Rubbish, he didn't say anything about immigrants, he was talking about having a responsible defence policy. His use of the term "chink" was unwise in these days of extreme P.C. reaction. The use of the smear "racist" is typical leftwing P.C. anathemising, which is the more accurate comparison to the medieval papal church. I take his comment to refer to the Chinese Communist government and its militarism, which does not make a man a racist any more than references to "the Russkies" during the Cold War made someone "racist". Being anti-communist is not "racist".

Thanks Leadbelly, Ive noted your contribution of late as well. Nice to see the odd glass half full comments amoungst the doom. Same for the likes of Elley, Casual Observer and Muzza and GBH of course. We have alot to be bloody thankful for here and not all of it can be measured by GDP or any number of other abitury measures. True we have many issues and the likes of PDK and Steven and old Kunzie challenge conventional thinking which I have no issue with and indeed enjoy. However I recon NZ has some massive advantages going for us we just need to be smart about how we go about it and hopefully my daughters and theirs will enjoy the friuts..

Hey SS how's the grass up your way? VERY dry down here.  Ordered some PK for the first time ever today. Went against the grain somewhat, but with grass disappearing, no silage made (or to be bought, it appears) we've got to feed 'the girls'. Winter crops looking somewhat dehydrated. We aren't as badly off as some around here but thought we had better be proactive as there isn't much moisture forecast for here for a while yet.  Interesting thing is, PK was being quoted a lot less last week than it is this week. Just between phone calls today (about an hour apart) it went up $5/t.  It seems it is heading for a bit of a shortage.

Spoke to a new conversion owner some ways from here - they have just gone on once a day.  They said their 'cows are milking ok - they are doing 0.8'. We dry our cows off at 0.6! They are new to dairying. BUT they said while this season is proving to be a nightmare, they are looking forward to next season.

Had a young sharemilker tell me today that they firmly believe that food producing is the business to be in, in the medium term. Great to hear such positivity from a young farmer. I couldn't think of anything else I would rather be in either.


CO, we are stuck with a northerly flow, its bringing plenty of rain to the East coast of the nth Island. We had 2 inches today, friend in the Waikato told me today its been cold. Grapes and crops are very late although my grapes flowered on time only 1/2 the canopy i would normaly have this time of year. The beach is horrible terrible visibility and continuous large swells. Ive feed up to the fence if you want to bale and  ship it you can have some for free. Good news is you have plenty of time for it to rain before Autumn, I always bet on rain but from 2007 to 2009 it was a bad choice for me. Ive got that horrible green fly hanging around my ewes and cannot shear because its always raining. 

 Have a great  new year, Andrew

Thanks for the offer Aj. Im a bit of an optimist so believe that sooner or later the rain will come. Up to end of November we had had 100ml more than usual - that's a lot in this country, so the weather's just evening itself up a bit.  We have had 1.6ml since 3rd Dec. Not all of Southland is affected, coastal seems to be hit hard at the moment.  We are lower stocked this year, due to new sharemilker, and that is proving to be a saving grace. Last year we went on to 16hr milkings for about 3 weeks but trying a different strategy this year as not so heavily stocked. Moth and I will be heading home in the next few days so we'll bring some sunshine up north and you send some rain down. ;-)

All the best for 2012 to you and yours.

CO and AJ,

Absolutely swimming in the green where we are, just outside Auckland. (farm in my spare time)Holding stock back and shutting up paddocks for hay just after our silage make?! I'm surprised the meat prices have held up so well, I thought most of NZ in a similar position. Where has been dry?

Hi Leadbelly. We farm in South east Southland. Considered coastal as we are 15kms from the sea as the crow flies. Our soils though are typical heavy southland, not loamy/sandy like coastal North Island. Though not real drought - yet - what is compounding it, is that there hasn't been much supplementary feed made and no one is willing to feed out the little that they have as it will be needed for winter. We have made our usual baleage on the runoff, but we would also have had a cut of sliage and baleage off the home farm.  Haven't made anything off the home farm and nothing shut up either. Donesn't seem to be any for sale either, though one local has lucerne balage for $150 - PK is a cheaper alternative.The dry here has been localised though from what SS has said it is spreading northwards down here.

At home (we live in the BoP, absentee owners) we had twice average rainfall by May and weekend falls of 150mls+ once a month are now common.  However down here 25mls is considered a lot - little and often is usual for here.  But practically none since beginning of Dec is unusual, hence the dry.  Driving down a week ago North Canterbury had grass to burn.

CO, cheers for reply. Any on the ground account of how PSA is affecting the kiwifruit growing areas in BOP? Anecdotal reports of real financial stress for localised areas badly affected?

Definitely financial stress over PSA, especially for growers Leadbelly.  Three suicides in about one week not long before Christmas.

As far as communities go, it is affecting them, as many small businesses are involved, though many of the Eastern Bay communities are not 100% reliant on kiwifruit. The growers around us talk very positively about the support they are getting from East Pack, our local packhouse. 

Some growers have pulled it all out after being affected and called it quits (were in a financial postion where they could afford to), then there are others that are just getting on with it and regrafting/planting.

Most affected growers still got paid for the 2011 crop so it will be 2012 onwards that we will really start to see the true economic cost to BoP.

By the way, are ALL extreme weather events "evidence of man made climate change"?


And NOTHING is a dis-proof? 


As if extreme weather patterns are unusual:


Locals say the summer is the same as they had here 30/40years ago when, the now BB, locals were kids. It hasn't been like that for quite a few years  - so it must be all our dairy cows now, PB.  Wouldn't know what is was 30years ago though! ;-)

As a farmer, I firmly believe that weather is cyclical.  That's why we try to farm on a KISS principle.

All the best for 2012.

Shags sheep, had a great year on the farm feed to burn,literally. Had a great year and hope to head back to the States in May, starting to spend more time offshore than here because thats where our children have chosen to study and live.

 Im not alone look at this survey


Wordsworth 1805


'Twas in truth an hour
Of universal ferment; mildest men
Were agitated, and commotions, strife
Of passion and opinion, filled the walls
Of peaceful houses with unquiet sounds.
The soil of common life was, at that time,
Too hot to tread upon. Oft said I then,
And not then only, "What a mockery this
Of history, the past and that to come!
Now do I feel how all men are deceived,


Aj, had to love this comment on your link: God will fulfill our forecast. Optimistic people will do well, pessimistic will suffer.

Enjoy the time with your kids.  It's says something about your relationship with them when both you and them enjoy your time together. We've only got one back home after 4years away.  The MOTH is really enjoying farming in partnership with them. Our philosophy is that the kids have to do what they have to do.  That by allowing them to become the people they need to be, as opposed to what we think they should be, and us still working on being a part of their lives when we can, wherever they are, we will all be better off as a family.

Pity the HB is so far from southern Southland.  We could do with some rain down here - and feed. :-(

2012 will be a good year for us food producers! ;-)

Yeah getting pretty dry further up here too CO. A good rain on the new grass and crops would be most welcome. Aj, perhaps you could send abit of the wet stuff down our way.


That said im truely optimistic about our fortunes for 2012. I note another major milk poisioning scare in China recently which will only re enforce NZs reputation as a source of high quality safe infant formula's. The lamb schedule still north of $7kg and a strong outlook for beef. Wools probably the most vulnerable to global uncertainty but is holding up remarkably well at present. All that and a great enviroment to bring up the kids... whats not to like. 

Happy new year to all the commentors with particular reference to CO and Aj, who's contributions on rural issues are always interesting, enlightening and  respected.

Also as a born and bred, if recently exiled Cantabrian, my heartfelt best wishes  to all those Cantabrians who have endured so much destruction and disruption but throughout have demonstrated such resilience. I hope 2012 marks the end of the shaking and delivers the start of the rebirth. Canterbury is a great province and dispite many hard decisions pending, and obsticles too overcome, im sure you will rebuild a great city.

US deficit 10%/GDP

UK 9%

Japan 8.9%

Nothing to see here, move along please.

Employment in the US is DECREASING, regardless of the wacky unemployment numbers.  That will last untill they come up with more ways to fudge those numbers. 

Sure the world is fine, all the issues from '11 have been put to rest, the fiat ponzi has resolved it's debt spiral, and '12 will be the year where everyone hit's the big time.

Happy 2012 writers and readers.

And see my eary comments on this thread.

This will leave Parky spitting tacks....a great read to end 011 and a guide to future recession...


Hitler also had a fixation about the great banking/financial cartel that was out to screw all the people.  And it's the oldest conspiracy theory in history. I see you still zealously expounding it Wolly, the only thing you haven't yet identified is all the Jewish involvement in this.

I think we can agree that the USA , as it contributes a quarter of global GDP , needs to be in strong heart for the rest of the world's sake . .. And finally , a few " green shoots " are appearing ( no , Wolly , you can't smoke them ! ) ......

...... as an efficient food producer , New Zealand is well poised to benefit from a global up-tick . And if we could combine that with some fiscal prudence from the government , 2012 will be a stellar year for the country .

Rock on , team ! ....... Happy New Year to one & all .

The message in the title to this thread is beyond being is a farce...utter humbug...

Take the time to go and read this report. Then you will understand why the usa is still falling down a hole with no bottom to it.

 "We’ve never had a decline in house prices on a nationwide basis. So, what I think what is more likely is that house prices will slow, maybe stabilize, might slow consumption spending a bit." - Ben Bernanke - July 2005

Adding to the above comment we have this for the new year::::

 "To make the euro survive in the longer term, it needs countries to be sufficiently competitive to have some economic growth to be able to pay off their debts". 

 "..... the euro collapse; now it's pretty well certain that it will".

What's it all mean....

That you fellow Kiwi peasant are going to be swimming in lies spin and warm govt BS!

012 is set to dish up recession if you are lucky...if not depression for sure....the banking domino collapse as the losses spread at the speed of light through the corruption....that's why Bollard is flapping around with his OBR game maker....well he thinks it reality it's nothing of the sort....just a different type of BS.

Export demand set to fall...prices too....or do you believe the spin that China will grow at 10% pa long into the future...well do you?.....or that Australia will not spit the dummy and own up to recession and a property implosion....or that Obama can magic away the trillions in debts and Arnie will arrive to save them from themselves and their filthy corrupt system of lies and greater Federal thieving.

Too late now to pay off the debts....too late to judge if the job and cash flow is secure, unless you are a local govt CEO that is...then you can count on a fat pay rise... may ask is the ECBs monetary policy!'s simply really...there are two parts to it....the first involves a public position whereby the ECB is the protector of the euro value and not a piggy bank with cheap euro credit for member states and banks et al....a promise not to buy the piigs bonds to keep the cost down to 7% or less....a promise of prudent central bank management..a policy based on honesty and open disclosure to the markets...

The second part involves the ECB 'printing' whatever hundreds of billions are needed to fill the void in the piigs bond sales...more 'printing' of hundreds of billions to fill the empty vaults of the corrupt banks et al..issuing hundreds of billions at almost zero cost to any 'important' ( read friend) entity wanting dirt cheap imagined credit...and the keeping of all these actions a secret from the markets!

Get the picture.

It took a while for all the facts to filter through the system Wolly.  Having seen how the ECB has circumvented all the rhetoric and policies it is clear they will continue to expand the money supply, while publicly proclaiming the opposite.

The short term goal is to keep the unholy trinity of Banks, Central Bank and Governments in a circular reference self perpetuating infinite monetary creation loop.

Longer term more unnafordable socialism (to keep Govts reliant on Banks), more Centralisation, and most importantly far far more BS.

Tangible assets, black markets and self sufficiency.

That would be true, if this was the real world, seems like the EMU is living in the twilight zone where the laws of physics, maths and nature do not apply.  They have removed market participants from the equation, now it's just banks and govts, if a new participant is required they just create one, ie EFSF, or the LTRO.  The ponzi can keep going and going as long as there is no need for rational participation.

Looking at the 'Keynesian benefit make work farce'... that is the NZ for the slide in govt tax revenue...only the commodity export sector is holding that tax flow from a huge will get your warning from a drop in commodity prices....meat and dairy...the rest will be history.

The ratings liars will also spot the change and prepare English for the down grade to come...because any action he should take...was required of him three years ago....he is three years too late to stop it.

Prognosis:....higher cost of credit for govt//local govt, homeowners and corporates...all leading to severe recession..."hello soup kitchens"

Three years to late!

{ but the local govt CEOs will keep their massive pay rises as will all the Sir Humphrey leeches and the state sector management elite class.}

Meanwhile anyone care to say just how secure our bio security systems are....

 Paraguay confirms second foot-and-mouth outbreak....herald

Care to guess whether English is screaming into a phone right now at the pointy heads in charge of keeping this out of bet he is!

From my humble coal face position Wolly,not very. And if F & M struck it'd be mud huts for the lot of us. 

Gosh...these blokes stand a good chance of being hired by the NZ treasury to advise on where the economy is heading....

Wolly and everyone else who is interested:

John Cochrane: Inflation and Debt

I think this guy has sorted out some important confusions regarding the connection between money printing and hyperinflation. I think he explains convincingly why all the QE going on in the world today has not yet started to cause inflation.

He suggests that when investors no longer trust sovereign governments and instruments of sovereign debt no longer mop up the excess money in circulation - BANG - hyperinflation commences.

It was not till I read this essay, that I really understood what Warren Buffett said in 2008, "Sovereign debt is the next unburst bubble".

Far too few commentators understand the role of "investors" in all the hazards that are created. "Traders" at financial institutions are mostly just "meat in the sandwich" - all the demonising of them that goes on, lets all the investors off the hook - I love what Cactus Kate tells them - "you're a sucker and you want an excuse not to admit it".