Daily briefing for Monday, January 9, 2012

Daily briefing for Monday, January 9, 2012; Unemployment degrees; paying off debt; demographic tsunami; competitive carbon taxes

9th Jan 12, 9:53am by David Chaston

China to tax carbon by 2015
China says it's considering a carbon tax within three years to tighten its emissions regulations on polluting industries and put its economy on a greener footing. A draft of a plan to impose a tax on emissions of greenhouse gases has been submitted to the Ministry of Finance for review. The tax, aimed primarily at large users of coal, crude oil and natural gas, is likely to be charged at a rate of 10 yuan (NZ$2.15) for each tonne of carbon dioxide a business or other operation discharges. Australia isn't happy - it's planning to charge NZ$23 per tonne from July this year.

Limited choices
How do governments reduce their debt? Well there is bankruptcy, long-term spending cuts, inflation, or growth. Or there are tax increases. Here is a German proposal to pay off debt "within a generation" taking the process out of parliament, much like current monetary policy.

Wealth basics II
"Bank failures are caused by depositors who don't deposit enough money to cover losses due to mismanagement."
Dan Quayle

more below ...

		8 am		--- 52 week --
		Today	Friday	high	low
		--------	--------	---------	---------
FX rates	NZ$1=US$	0.7794	0.7812	0.8822	0.7174
	NZ$1=AU$	0.7638	0.7609	0.8085	0.7276

Gold	in US$/oz	1,617	1,622	1,895	1,319
	in NZ$	2,074	2,076	2,314	1,705

Copper	in US$/t	7,515	7,652	10,147	6,785
	in NZ$	9,642	9,795	13,507	8,299

Crude oil	in US$/bl	101.79	102.93	118.70	89.69
	in NZ$	130.60	131.75	149.14	117.26

US Treasuries	30 yr bond	3.06%	2.98%	4.73%	2.88%

Dow	DJIA 30	12,363	12,425	12,919	10,402

“It’s a demographic tsunami.”
China’s challenge is similar to that faced by Japan in the 1990s, with one essential difference: China will grow old before it gets rich. The latest government census shows 178 million Chinese were over 60 in 2009. That figure could reach 437 million - one third of the population - by 2050, the United Nations forecasts. While the elderly were looked after in the past by their children, urbanisation and the nation’s one-child policy have eroded the tradition of family care.

"No new taxes - just pay what you owe"
Americans and their businesses underpaid their taxes by an estimated 17% in the most recent year studied, failing to send their government a massive US$450 billion that it was owed, according to a US Internal Revenue Service report released Friday. That was far more than their deficit for that year. (The updated NZ data is this: The IRD was owed over NZ$12.5 billion at at the end of June 2011 which was past due. The government deficit was NZ$13.4 billion at that date. Overall the NZ Government had NZ$64.9 billion in total debt securities on issue at that date; although "net debt" was NZ$40.1 billion.)

Do arts degrees contribute to unemployment?
Are architecture degrees even worse? “People keep telling kids to study what they love - but some loves are worth more than others,” said Anthony P. Carnevale, one of the study’s authors. “When people talk about college, there are all these high-minded ideas about it making people better citizens and participating fully in the life of their times. All that’s true, but go talk to the unemployed about that.”

No chart with that title exists.

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19 Comments

by skudiv | 9th Jan 12, 11:25am 1326061507

Forget paying back debt. Looking at current govt debts, and unfunded liabilities govt debts are set to go much much higher in the future.

Gold and especially silver are still looking cheap BTFD. Pleanty of physical assets with value worth, and productive uses, out there. The fiat dollars/Physical asset ratio is growing by the day. Now is the time to purchase, and secure a future for yourself. The govt isn't going to be able to take care of your retirement, definatly not at todays standards.

by Andy Rodgers | 9th Jan 12, 11:43am 1326062580

I totally agree and I have been preparing to be financially independent in retirement. The problem will be what percentage of NZ'ers have been taking the necessary precautions? Will the Gov't cut benefits due to shortfalls or increase taxes on those who foresaw the future problems. If it's the latter I will just move somewhere more financially friendly.

by skudiv | 9th Jan 12, 11:50am 1326063013

Judging by current trends they will lower taxes, and increase benefits. HAHAHA, depends if the IMF is running the show by then. Seriously though, most people believe the old ways of, get a good education, work hard, put money in a managed fund, and the govt will take care of you in retirement.

by Andrewj | 9th Jan 12, 1:19pm 1326068387

I remember going to Canada in 1979, I had to go into the bank and ask for foreign currency, fill out some forms with flight details and wait for approval. I expect those days to return.

by Banksterbasher | 9th Jan 12, 1:12pm 1326067978

You are on to it skudiv, isn't it strange how people take little notice of the big things life and dwell on those little things that make next to no difference.

by the_dc | 9th Jan 12, 1:08pm 1326067706

The WaPo link is broken. Try this one

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/new-study-shows-architecture-arts-degrees-yield-highest-unemployment/2012/01/03/gIQAwpaXZP_story.html

by scarfie | 9th Jan 12, 1:52pm 1326070325

It become perfectly apparent to me when I started my Architecture degree that there was no way there would ever be employment for all those that started. There were over one hundred at my institution, with two other Architecture Schools on top of this. To be fair this is whittled down to about thirty five that complete the five year masters course, so you could say perhaps one hundred graduates between the three schools. I would say there are jobs for three of them if you are lucky.

However I have been told that my institution places 100% of their graduates, but this does not mean it is in the Architecture field. I don't actually believe that though. The reasoning put forward by one lecturer when asked by a fellow mature student, "what happens to all the graduates"? Was that Architecture is about advanced problem solving, and that is a universal skill.

No problem for me, I have the jump on the young ones by having designed and build my own place already. Not sure if I will even finish the degree.

by Matt in Auck | 9th Jan 12, 2:11pm 1326071473

Scarfie, during the boom times opportunities for grads were fairly good. But certainly since 2008 things have got pretty grim for architecture or any other profession associated with development.

Its a profession that really struggles with the whole boom/bust cycle

by scarfie | 9th Jan 12, 2:22pm 1326072148

Yes I was well aware when getting into it that things might be tight for a while. It was only through studying the history of architecture that I could see the 20thC dark ages from 1930 through to post war. In NZ it even went well into the 60's I would say, according to Sir Miles Warren anyway. I don't think it will ever be the same again with what faces the world.

It is a shame that no one recognised my abilities in that area when I was younger, certianly with hindsight I was designing and building structures from about the age of fourteen on. But the positive side is that I have had the benefit of working with many different mediums, as such I understand the design ramifications of them. From Concrete and steel right through to textiles. Having lived on a boat with four square metres per person, barracks, state homes through to million dollar homes gives me some experience to draw from also. Heck this post is sounding like an advertisement.Lol. But just trying to point out there can be benefits to work experience prior to tertiary study. I think I am trying to convince myself of that:)

My attitude has always been that if I am good enough then people will want my designs:)

by iconoclast | 9th Jan 12, 3:01pm 1326074504

Scarfie: Don't give up. You got me. You might be able to help me in the future. You were right about Moirs Hill. Over the years I have built a number of houses without using an architect, except the last one, in which I currently live. I would never attempt another one without using an architect. Currently looking to relocate to Auckland, somewhere between Matakana and Waipu with approximately 1 to 2 hectares, level, not steep, coastal, above sea level, near services, and build a single level house. Disappointment. Not much available. How can we connect.

by scarfie | 9th Jan 12, 3:42pm 1326076941

Don't be in a hurry Iconoclast. Wellford area is in trouble because Izard Irwin closed down. Mangawhai has been over developed and I think they would take offers:)

Keep out of Rodney/Auckland I would say, Kaipara DC will be much easier to work with.

I do try to protect my internet ID in case I say something stupid that someone will to try and cause me grief, and believe me there is someone that will. Bernard may forward you my email address, although in fairness to him he doesn't operate a dating service:-P Hugh, Murray or Walter all have my address. If you don't suffer my paranoia you can post yours here.

by iconoclast | 9th Jan 12, 3:59pm 1326077970

Scarfie: iconoklast@optusnet.com.au

by skudiv | 9th Jan 12, 5:11pm 1326082305

use {at} instead of @, datamining programs grab that email, welcome to the world of spam.

by scarfie | 9th Jan 12, 5:38pm 1326083901

Lol and yes. To be honest though the worst spam comes from the sites I use like the monthly newsletter from Sella or Trademe. Another is Genesis and I gave up on the Financial Times. I put up with Stratfor.com so I can get the free stuff, but look at the trouble they are in! I made an error of judgment with Linkedin and allowed it to access my contacts, I wasn't thinking that day. They spammed the crap out of everyone, heck there were a lot of pissed off people that day. A minority were happy I suppose, but I was gutted that I fell for that one. Linked in and facebook are a couple of the worst offenders.

But the worst thing of all is there is very little you can do about internet attacks in general because you can't prove who was at the keyboard at the time. The only blessing is that it can work in your favour from time to time:-)

A recent California court decision is interesting. An MMOG abused the court process to obtain email addresses of clients of another business after being denied in another state. Paypal handed them the information without even blinking. Beware your credit card details! I certainly won't use Paypal again.

by skudiv | 9th Jan 12, 6:40pm 1326087658

Stratfor got owned for the lulz, did you get the latest letter?

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by iconoclast | 9th Jan 12, 5:52pm 1326084772

No worries: in the early 2000's I did 3 years as a google-webmaster, and nearly everyday we had a heartrending plea from a young (teenager) who had posted a derrogatory or demeaning post about a friend who was soon to become and ex-friend, and how to remove said damaging posts. It was a lesson to me to stay away from twitter and facebook. Until about 2 years ago I was receiving 30 and 40 emails every-day offering assistance with my appendage and love-life and performance. Since Twitter and Facebook became the medium of choice, the spam in my inbox has fallen away to zero, although I still get the occasional mail regarding some obscure bank that I have never heard of and that they are going to de-activate my account.

by skudiv | 9th Jan 12, 6:43pm 1326087824

When I'm hiring I use a different email account, spam filter takes case of the worst of it thankfully.

by jh | 9th Jan 12, 2:29pm 1326072552

How resilient are we? A New Zealand immigrant’s perspective

http://fleeingvesuvius.org/2012/01/02/how-resilient-are-we-a-new-zealand-immigrants-perspective/

by Wolly | 9th Jan 12, 7:50pm 1326091852

Throw some more coal on the fire boy....

"Human emissions of carbon dioxide will defer the next Ice Age, say scientists.

The last Ice Age ended about 11,500 years ago, and when the next one should begin has not been entirely clear.

Researchers used data on the Earth's orbit and other things to find the historical warm interglacial period that looks most like the current one.

In the journal Nature Geoscience, they write that the next Ice Age would begin within 1,500 years - but emissions have been so high that it will not.

“I don't think it's realistic to think that we'll see the next glaciation on the [natural] timescale”Prof Lawrence Mysak McGill University

"At current levels of CO2, even if emissions stopped now we'd probably have a long interglacial duration determined by whatever long-term processes could kick in and bring [atmospheric] CO2 down," said Luke Skinner from Cambridge University.

Dr Skinner's group - which also included scientists from University College London, the University of Florida and Norway's Bergen University - calculates that the atmospheric concentration of CO2 would have to fall below about 240 parts per million (ppm) before the glaciation could begin"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-16439807