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90 seconds at 9 am: Markets steady as expectations grow for central bank intervention; Spain calls for EU bailout of its banks; Prices up 13.5% in milk powder auction

90 seconds at 9 am: Markets steady as expectations grow for central bank intervention; Spain calls for EU bailout of its banks; Prices up 13.5% in milk powder auction

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, including news stock and bond markets were broadly flat overnight as expectations grow that central banks will intervene soon to stabilise European financial markets and try to restart stalled economic growth across much of China, Europe and the United States.

US stocks closed up 0.6% while British stocks fell 1.1% and German stocks fell 0.2%. Bond yields were flat near record lows in Britain, America and Germany as investors hug safe havens.

Markets are now focused on the European Central Bank's meeting tonight, the Bank of England's meeting on Thursday night and testimony from US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke to Congress on Thursday night.

Some investors are hoping for signs from the European Central Bank of either further rate cuts or another round of LTRO (Long Term Refinancing Operations) for Euro zone banks. They are also hoping for signs of a Euro-zone wide banking union and any moves towards a Euro-zone bond where Germany guarantees the debts of Southern Europe. The Bank of England may increase its programme of Quantitative Easing or money printing to buy government bonds, while the US Federal Reserve is also being closely watched for signs it will launch a third round of QE, often referred to as QE III.

Meanwhile, Spain ramped up the pressure on European leaders overnight with an open call for the Euro-zone to bail out its banks. See more here at Reuters. It also acknowledged that Spanish government bond yields were now so high the government was effectively locked out of financial markets. See more here at Reuters and see more here in Dan Bell's Currencies report.

Closer to home, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut its official cash rate by 25 basis points to 3.5% as it responded to a slowing Chinese economy. See more here in our article from late yesterday.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand will release its June quarter Monetary Policy Statement next Thursday. Financial markets are pricing in a 30% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut in New Zealand and see around 40 basis points of cuts over the next year.

However, the financial market view contrasts with the views of most economists, who broadly expect the next move by the Reserve Bank here will be a hike in March of next year. Borrowers who see rates rising are more likely to fix, while those who see rates falling are more likely to float. See more in my Fixed vs Floating guide.

In some good news though, Fonterra's fortnightly auction of milk powder overnight saw prices rise 13.5%. However, they have only recovered to early April levels and remain down 33% from a year ago. See more here in David Chaston's article.

The New Zealand dollar was broadly steady overnight, firming from around 75.4 USc before the auction to around 75.7 USc in mid-morning trade.

No chart with that title exists.

(Updated with links)

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8 Comments

 

UK banks sitting on £40bn of undeclared losses Britain's banks are sitting on a £40bn black hole of undeclared losses that are preventing them from making vital loans to businesses and households.

 

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/9312513…

 

 Higest rated comment

 

 

 

MrBishi

2 hours ago

 

Paying themselves bonuses against undeclared losses?
That's fraud in any language.

 

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Let me be the first to say ...I had my ass handed to me on the overnight Fonterra Auction,...but and this is a big BUT...

 Something smells here, smells bad, real bad.....There is bucking a trend , but this cow just got an injection of fence clearing proportions......

for the in depth go...http://www.globaldairytrade.info/Results.aspx#gdttwichange

I'm off to get the neck brace out and stop the head from shaking .......

Maybe something to do with the contract spread....should reverse itself , but holy moley..talk about timing

 Nude magic ...where the rabbit comes right out of the ass.

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"as expectations grow that central banks will intervene soon to stabilise European financial markets and try to restart stalled economic growth"

Forgive my ignorance but how exactly can central banks really influence economic growth?  Aren't they just another bank?  Rather than regulating/supervising the financial markets is their intervention just making things worse?  My simple logic tells me that lending/credit (same goes for central & local govt) should be a service to the "economy" and not the primary drivers.

 

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meh - Exactly right.  I notice that Bernard used the word hope several times in his commentary. That's about all that is left for the European economy.

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"while British stocks fell 1.1%"

 

Bernard - The UK stock market has been closed since Friday 1st June for the Queens Diamond Jubilee.

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Andy this is something you have to get used to - When I worked in London some of the bank traders took childlike delight in misleading financial journalists knowing full well it would be trotted out for their amusement - There is no substitute for position to force one to keep abreast of matters and overcoming the indignities heaped upon the initially not so subtle as they go about learning to trade. As with most things in life it is better to start with other people's money.  Some never get beyond that stage.

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Less pain in Spain..what will the Greeks and Portuguese think!

 

"Officials in Brussels said the contingency strategy to support Spain could be "austerity-lite", rather than tied with conditions like the Greek and Portuguese bail-outs, to restore confidence more quickly. The bail out could be as much as €80bn(£65bn) rather than €40bn Madrid reckons its banks need".

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financialcrisis/9315081/Europe-ready-to-rescue-Spains-banks.html

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