90 seconds at 9 am: New energy reality

90 seconds at 9 am: Abundant low-cost energy transforming the world; Greeks approve austerity; Japan sliding into recession; NZ$ starts at 81.7 USc

13th Nov 12, 8:49am by David Chaston

Here's my summary of the key news overnight in 90 seconds at 9 am, with the world's media impressed with the latest IEA World Energy Outlook.

Two features of that report stand out: firstly, North America is at the forefront of a sweeping transformation in oil and gas production that will affect all regions of the world; and secondly, just how much thermal coal is being produced, especially in China.

The IEA also notes a similar transformative shift in global energy efficiency and that is supressing demand along with the recession in Europe. Energy is cheap these days, ignoring the taxes we impose on it. The shift from oil to gas is also impressive.

And in related news, the EU, which has been leading the effort to impose taxes on carbon emissions, has agreed to suspend its rules that require airlines flying to and from airports in the EU to pay for those carbon emissions.

This is a significant backdown in the face of Chinese and American pressure.

Staying in Europe, the Greek parliament has approved its austerity budget, a €17 bln austerity and overhaul package for the next four years.

This now puts the Troika on the spot to come up with the funds, and much more if they agree to a two year extension being talked about in negotiations.

In Japan, after a strong performance earlier this year, economic output dropped in the third quarter as the reconstruction boom that followed the natural disasters in 2011 slowed. Japan is tip-toeing into recession again.

Stocks are up in late trade. The NZ dollar starts today slightly up at 81.7 USc and is at 73.2 on the TWI.

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10 Comments

by Mark | 13th Nov 12, 9:11am 1352751069

Cue the insufferable powerdownkiwi to come in and tell us how the IEA has got it all wrong.

by steven | 13th Nov 12, 1:34pm 1352766872

So you can make your investment(s) decision based on what PDK, I and ASPO say on this....or on we'll have heaps of oil so say...ho hum...

Whats the problem with deciding that based on the 2 sides presented? You and others now have the total picture, you can invest wisely cant you?

regards

by Leadbelly | 13th Nov 12, 9:17am 1352751431

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/9665674/Shale-oil-will-change-global-supply-Opec-admits.html

What would be OPECs angle on the above? Why would they state a position at all?

by steven | 13th Nov 12, 1:31pm 1352766660

A get out clause maybe.

Its a beut of a side step if so....the US oil industry can now carry the can when things go wrong....

"Opec cut its forecast for demand for its own crude supplies, while forecasting that non-Opec oil supply would grow significantly.

Between 2011 and 2016 non-Opec liquids supply would be boosted by increased output “mainly from shale oil in the US, Canadian oil sands, and crude oil from the Caspian and Brazil”

Or is it saying that as expected by peak oilists OPEC's output will fall in this time frame, but thats OK as the US etc will make that up. If it doesnt make that up, well OPEC will claim it "cut back" on drilling because of the expected competition.

regards

by Neven911 | 13th Nov 12, 9:32am 1352752377

David, like oil was less than $20 USD a barral, like less than 10 years ago and like its now its like averaging $90 and the whole world is in recession like so why do you like think its cheap chew chew

Anf like the gas that everyone changing to is like the scum off ther top of old oil fields ("gas caps" is what they call them its a blast) and this is a good thing?

Can I ask you a question like? In the end of Thelma and Louise, do you like think their car flew away?

by Plutocracy | 13th Nov 12, 10:52am 1352757163

Cue people with little scientific or geological understanding touting that USA is about to become the next saudi arabia.

This graph of past IEA oil production predictions is worth looking at, perhaps a little over-optimistic?

http://ronyissar.files.wordpress.com/2011/09/iea-world-oil-projections-…

by steven | 13th Nov 12, 1:40pm 1352767228

smoke and mirrors come to mind.

“Over the period 2011–2016, OECD oil demand declines each year, having peaked in 2005,” it said.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/oilandgas/966567…

Interesting....so its not that they cant supply it its that no one wants it or actually can afford it at $90USD....so $90USD is the new normal.

regards

by Wolly | 13th Nov 12, 12:21pm 1352762471

"This report has taken a worst-case scenario - a Wellington Fault rupture measuring 7.5 on the Richter scale,'' Ms Wilde said.

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=10847023

"worst case"...rubbish....8.5 and shallow would be worst case!

Since the 1855 jolt, the wgtn region has moved in two directions...up and in....18 inches!...go figure

by steven | 13th Nov 12, 1:45pm 1352767503

Someone should ask her what the design is for the Ministry of Health building is....I think its designed to see a 8.7? and still be totally or substantially functional.

Of course if there is no food or water coming in, or deisel for its generators for weeks of running its somewhat moot.

regards

by noponies | 13th Nov 12, 6:03pm 1352783027

Yep, no quantification of depth in the article.