The latest Roy Morgan political poll is a second consecutive poll that shows support for the National Party rising and close to 50%, with support for the Labour/Green alliance lower

The latest Roy Morgan political poll is a second consecutive poll that shows support for the National Party rising and close to 50%, with support for the Labour/Green alliance lower

Content supplied by RoyMorgan

During November support for National rose by 1.5% to 49.5% now clearly ahead of a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 37.5% (down 0.5%).

 If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National would be re-elected.

Support for the National partners was up slightly with the Maori Party unchanged at 1.5% while Act NZ was up 0.5% to 1% and United Future was up 0.5% to 0.5%.

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties - Labour’s support was at 23% (down 3.5%) – the lowest support for Labour for over two years,Greens 14.5% (up 3%) and NZ First 8% (down 2%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Internet Party was 0% (down 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ was 0.5% (up 0.5%), the Mana Party was 0% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 1.5% (unchanged).

The NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased strongly to 141pts (up 14.5pts) in November with a high 65% (up 9.5%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to only 24% (down 5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’. This is the rating’s highest score for nearly two years since January 2015.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Support for National 49.5% (up 1.5%) has consolidated at nearly half the New Zealand electorate during November as a series of earthquakes struck central parts of New Zealand including the Capital Wellington and parts of the South Island towards Christchurch.

“However, any concerns about a recurrence of the disastrous 2011 Christchurch earthquake have certainly not negatively impacted support for the Government – now at its strongest lead since July. In contrast, the poor performance of Labour in November will be a concern for Opposition Leader Andrew Little heading into an election year with a figurative ‘mountain to climb’. Labour has plunged to support of only 23% (down 3.5%) – Labour’s lowest support since late 2014.

“In addition to the rise in National support both the ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence – now at 127.2 (up 4.3pts) and the New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – now at 141 (up 14.5pts) are at their highest levels since early 2015.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 858 electors in November 2016. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (unchanged) didn’t name a party.

The original report is here.

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John Key comes up glossy dealing with a natural disaster.
The unfolding housing and infrastructure disaster caused by population growth is forgotten about.

No, ignored I think. Enough people are making money on housing and see a tax cut next year so they can make more so they will vote National or at "worst" NZF.

I will be watching NZF's % vote come the election in November? with a great deal of interest. I am almost willing to bet now that Winnee will pass the Green's and become the countries 3rd biggest party and king maker, which means a 4th term for JK, and quite possibly a 5th.

It is not been ignored, just people can see it is an Auckland driven problem. That would be Auckland that has had a LABOUR mayor for 6 years. Who would want to have them in government?

The disaster may keep people away. After all that is two biggies in 5 years.

I am sure this was his plan all along :-)

It seems like half of NZ disagrees with everyone here! Thank God for that!

Agreed. I'm not voting for anyone who has to make a deal with Greens or other minor parties to get into power. Either get there on your own steam or try again next time.

Hang on, who is in power now? A "deal" between National, Act, United Future and Maori Party isn't it? Maybe you just need to understand this new fangled MMP idea.. Seems like it is here to stay..

I work in South Auckland and often travel to poor rural communities. I look around and see poverty everywhere; poverty and inequality that has been increasing exponentially. Who are these people voting for or are they even voting at all?

Yep, but enough voters are making good money that they vote with whomever keeps the musical chairs game going. Sadly of course no party has much to offer the poor in any country let alone NZ. World economic growth has stopped and will decline (if it isnt already, hidden by smoke and mirrors ie debt), this means less jobs and that always hits the poor and un-skilled the hardest. It is going to get a lot worse IMHO.

I agree and its a sad state of affairs. It also shows the fragility of our supposed democracy if the poor are not represented accordingly

Well democracy is a majority system.

Another 10-20 years, then the poor will be represented, either via uprising or they become the majority.

The problem is that you can fool most of the people most of the time, and in democracy that is enough... Those with the money are the ones paying for the big advertising campaigns and so get more votes. The polls also tell everyone that their vote is wasted on anyone but the big two parties. In USA wasn't Obama going to bring change for the growing poor there? now Trump, next time who knows.... Once they are in power they tend to change their minds, and there is nothing the people can do till next election time.

If you live in Auckland you will be aware that the price of land in Auckland is a touch higher than every other place, because it has had the price jacked up by our local council. $billions of job killing costs have been raised against new building taking place - so we get low wages and homelessness. And rentiers get rich.

All of this was carried out by a Labour Party Mayor.

If you care about inequality, don't complain about Labour polling at its worst levels in a century - it is what they deserve.

Maybe take a trip to India then come back and tell me that South Auckland has 'poverty'.

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I have lived in very poor developing nations, it doesnt make the increasing poverty here any more palatable, and yes it is poverty.

I also wouldn't use India as a yardstick by which to measure ourselves by.

Poverty isn't receiving enough DOL money to live life and have enough to spend of alcohol and cigarettes and the odd trip to Aussie.. doesn't sound too bad to me!

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Ngrrk, I agree with you. Living in a small rural community where the average wage is only 28k a year and house rental has gone from $200 a week to $300 in one year, thats if you can find a house to rent, there is poverty in our community.

Don't conflate poverty with destitution, although I'm sure there are the odd examples of the latter in NZ. Poverty in a NZ context is obviously a relative concept.

Maybe try living in India and see how successful you are without all the support afforded residents of developed economies.

Better yet, lets see what salary you would command if NZ had open boarders and you felt the full force of global markets.

I feel for these people, but seriously - NZ's unemployment rate is currently 4.9% and we are importing labour.

If you can't get a job, or at least have the initiative to skill up in a shortage area, in this environment then there isn't much hope for you.

We have one of the most bouyant economies in the world at the moment - if you're stuffed here then frankly it's probably got more to do with your own personal issues than what the State is / or is not failing to do.

what makes you (or them) think that voting for Labour/Greens would improve their lot? Inequality has been increasing for decades under governments of all stripes. Blindly voting for 'change' with no evidence that the change will be positive for the country isn't smart at all.

After Brexit and Donald Trump we shouldn't be too concerned about what the polls have to say.

Yes and no. The polls in the US and Brexit were always close, this has National ahead by a mile

Haha Brexit was 50/50 before the poll, Trump was just in front (although the media lead you to believe otherwise)... Key has nothing to worry about. Just imagine the state of this country if it was Labour in control during the EQ, recession and housing boom.. hate to think about it, we are lucky Key and co has been there.

Is this poll taken from a cross section or just the boomers?

the boomers are the only ones that matter, as long as dear leader elevates their rental properties and safeguards their pensions ... what else is there to worr y bout

So true

.

Not correct. See notes in story. It's both landlines and mobile phones. (But they don't reveal proportions of them.) However, note RM are a professional polling outfit and they know how to poll properly with true random samples.

How then do RM manage such a wide variance over several polls?

Where do they get the cellphone numbers from?

I vaguely remember Telecom having the option to list a cellphone in the White Pages, but really, who does that? It's self-selected, and whoops, there goes any pretence of randomness.

In today's time it has been proved that surveys are so far away from reality and at times are to influence people but if it worked than brexit and trump would not have happened.

So many professional agencies and people have gone wrong and in a BIG way as they too have not changed and do not realize that with internet and social media, things are different now otherwise how could all the so called professional people go wrong in UK and USA.

Time to ponder............

roy morgan polls?sample of 800 + english speakers who consent to a phone survey,that has to be approaching a minority view.

Minority view? Boomers (and those older than them) are the majority, and they tend to be English Speakers with Landlines, who like to give opinions.

Boomers and elderly are also more likely to vote.

From what I have seen, the boomers tend to be helping out the kids with stuff (Housing, buying things for Grandkids, etc...), so even people my age, are not really as disenfranchised as those in the UK and USA - at least not yet anyway.

percentage of population over 65 is less than 15% although some of us see them everywhere,like little green men.

70k new National voters being imported every year.

national needs a big majority to govern, they only have 1 act, 2 MP and 1 UF to count on.
the problem has always been lack of partners.
also a lot of people will say one thing and do another especially when it comes to NZF, how many voted for trump and brexit whilst not saying so
http://www.biznews.com/business-unusual/2016/11/10/polls-failed-social-m...

How many people on here are saying no to National but will end up voting for them. We also need to wait and see what happens with Gareth Morgans new party.

He will be a Colin Craig party. One man, one Percent. Zero impact.

(Personally abusive comment deleted, Ed. Please note our commenting policy - http://www.interest.co.nz/news/65027/here-are-results-our-commenting-pol...)

I can't see Gareth Morgan getting anywhere. He's made a joke of himself. Especially with cats.

Trump can call mexican's rapists and still get elected, but he wasn't dumb enough to insult cats. Morgan has no chance!

Morgan has big kahunas. Craig had none.No comparison.

You have to remember that, historically, cats have a very low turnout.

And are very poor spellers, so tend to vote ACT.

Polling is flawed in a number of ways. To start with, few outsiders realise that many polls contain no more than a thousand participants. While statistically this should be enough to gauge a much larger population, it takes only a small number of people to introduce a significant bias. Consider also how this bias is introduced. Many polls are telephone polls, yet many Americans no longer possess landlines. The lists of participants are often dated and tend to be predominately urban. Behavioural psychologists have documented that, when asked by a stranger for an opinion, people often lie or dilute their position,
uncomfortable with their own views or prejudices
ask yourself how many immigrants would admit voting for NZF because they are unhappy with the current direction to someone strange on the phone

Yet, what we’re discovering through the AI big data phenomenon, isn’t just that algorithms discriminate on a continuous basis, it’s that they make terrible assumptions about the human condition when they do so. Without the ability to empathise or respect a human’s capacity to change, better himself or hold contradictory view points at the same time, algorithms crunch data for patterns and correlations and interpret them to assume x, y or z is a defaulter or a criminal just because that’s what the data probabilities for his group-type or associations suggest.
https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2016/11/29/2180424/algorithmic-discrimination/

https://www.c-span.org/video/?414440-1/cathy-oneil-discusses-weapons-mat...

I know a lot of people here seem surprised that National is on this level of support given the real and challenging issues facing many in this country. However, the political landscape is looking rather barren at the moment. National is doing an ok job - ok not great. All things being equal they shouldn't have 50%. However, Labour is just rubbish. It is clear that they are moving hard left along with the Greens. Housing and the associated evils with the lack of supply should be their big policy but their proposals seem rushed and half-thought through. I used to be a keen Labour supporter but not now - it's clear they cannot stand alternative views and are going all in for identity politics. What they haven't heard yet is that id politics is over - it failed in the UK, Australia, and the US.

It's like the facts don't matter. Well I never....

totally agree, labour should stick to a few main issues and hammer away, housing, wages, immigration
also they need a younger better leader. the greens co leader looks better than the labour one.
I will be watching with interest to see if WP can capture the brexit trump disenfranchised of NZ, and if so which side he takes it from.
his one problem has been lack of good MP's behind him, he needs people like stuart nash and or shane jones to join to give him some hitting power.
the other problem is his ego hence the amount of weak MP's behind him.
as for GM waiting to see who runs with him, a couple of rightwing big names and he could be a spanner in nationals side
with there lack of partners any lost votes really hurts them

Agree, this is not about National, it is about the alternatives that offer credible options. Better the devil we know.....

If NZ First got of their behind, they could make a killing here.

AK79 do you mean Andrew Little should address the issues of building affordable housing, which include lands supply. Because he is already doing that -yesterday for instance http://www.labour.org.nz/andrew_little_speech_to_the_property_council_s_...

Andrew gets good feedback from these sort of events -but bugger all media coverage....

Fourth term looking likely for the Nats. Gareth Morgan has timed his run nicely for those looking for an alternative to a hugely overlapping centre left/right, policy pending of course.

Had read somewhere and how true it is :

The polls are just being used as another tool of voter suppression. The polls are an attempt to not reflect public opinion, but to shape it. Yours. They want to depress the heck out of you.

What happened in two biggest democracy proves that in today's time where idea and views are exchanged and debated freely it is hard to manipulate people - This type of surveys also helps in giving false picture to government and make them more arrogant in their approach and make them complacent.

Anyone who does or follow polls know that the outcome also depends on how the question is asked.

What is always forgotten is how great Helen Clark’s Labour Govt were for house prices when they were in, it was fantastic with over 100% growth in the last 2 terms. Bring them in again I say!

Rhetoric basher.

In the case of property prices, it's not about the percentage increase but the absolute real amount of increase that strains the buy side.
In the case of Labour's tenure, prices did increase hugely percentage wise.
However, average prices increasing from $200k to $400k (although 50%) is a lot more sustainable than average prices increasing from $400k to $600k (33%) in a low wage/real wealth economy.

I would say that interest rates of 4.2% instead of 10.2% and an OCR of 1.75% instead of 8.25% might have something to do with it. Effectively low interest rates have allowed people to borrow more at a similar total cost so prices have risen. Not rocket science really.

Can't see how that is Key's fault...all macroeconomic

Ahhh, you might want to redo your maths there mate :) % figs wrong

True.
Sorry, been dealing with margin today.

The point still holds, though.

A government has some responsibility as to how well its country is doing, especially after 9 years. NZ is doing very well indeed in a time when many countries around the world are really struggling

In what metrics do you mean, and compared to what other countries? Can you please elaborate on your rhetoric?

Yes. I too would be interested in this one.

The number of immigrants wanting to get in would back up his claim alone...

But for what it's worth;

Unemployment in Spain is 20%, Italy = 11%, Finland = 8.2%.
Germany has 1 million refugees and increasing by the day, most of Europe is in a similar "boat"
Pretty much everywhere has lower interest rates. Try being a pensioner in the USA or Europe.
Australia has a Govt that is more akin to an episode of Survivor, than a stable democracy.
Pound has crashed, so to has the euro.
China, well where do you start.
Terrorism is becoming more prevalent throughout Europe.
Then you have the 80% of the rest of the world, where even typing in a comments box is a luxury. They have no minimum wage, no social welfare, no healthcare, limited education....

So yeah, I would say we are in a better place, if you still need proof ask yourself this...

"Why am I here?"

I do know that there are worse places to live in the world, my point was that Yvil's post was vacuous, as usual. Keeping NZ a better place to live than Somalia is not the bar I expect to be set from a government.

What influences the number of migrants wanting to come here? Government advertising campaigns in those countries? Allowing students to get work visas so we can allow more in the back door creating demand? Allowing family reunification of parents and giving them the full pension after 10 years? I am pretty sure our general standard of living compared to the rest of the world over the last decade has not moved a lot, we still are a bit poorer that Australia.

John Key disagrees with you on making interest rates higher:

Rt Hon JOHN KEY: I am glad the member has raised interest rates, because they were a disgrace under the previous Labour Government. The good news is that under the careful economic management of the finance Minister, interest rates have halved. "

The reason NZ is a nice place to live is it's temperate location, its sparse population and its culture. The extremely high immigration rate the government is supporting is slowly diminishing the best parts of NZ (population and culture), for the short term monetary gain of the NZ elite.

I am here as I was born here, and my family is here. The government would have to be pretty bad to make me leave. That I remain is proof that John Key is better than Mugabe, you got me there.

The main reason we are a great place is that we were the last decent land mass to be settled..and thus have/had less time to f##k it all up. Sadly, this advantage remains unrecognised by Key, the value already being extracted from our beauty and 'sold' to tourists not enough. Thus we keep digging, draining, irrigating. immigrating and tarsealing.... in a race to duplicate oveseas offerings.

It's pretty sad watching the destruction of a unique country.

"The government would have to be pretty bad to make me leave. That I remain is proof that John Key is better than Mugabe, you got me there."

Gee not extremist at all...You don't have to go to Zimbabwe. How about Sweden, Denmark, Australia, Japan, or Canada.

As for our living standard, for the majority it has actually got better (relative to the rest of the world) we didn't have mass mortgagee sales as a result of the GFC, our currency didn't tank after a vote, we haven't voted in anger against the establishment yet either, So clearly the masses aren't as concerned as the media, and some commenters are trying to make us believe.

Yes life here has got harder for some, and not improved as much as it could have for others. But we are still better off relative to the rest of the world. In the end it is all about relativity. We are probably in the top 20 nations on earth, across a range of areas.

Could we do better?

Possibly.

But would anyone in NZ want to pay the taxes they do in Sweden? or have the employment law the States does? (i.e. no maternity, less annual leave, lower minimum wages) or the user pays medical systems? Maybe they want the work is life approach of the Japanese? or perhaps the archaic bureaucracy of the UK?

From the posts here people want (or should that be expect) NZ to cherry pick the best aspects from every country without the negative Side effects.
- We want the Finnish education system, but without the taxes.
- We want the Swedish Social system, again with out the taxes.
- We want the US prices, but without the drop in wages, and working conditions.
- We want First world roads, but won't accept harsher driving tests.
- We want Large, diverse, vibrant cities, but without the impact to the Environment.
- We want foreign money, but don't want foreigners.

Each country is different, and has it pros and cons. I have lived in quite a few, and here is pretty good.

Take the resources, divide by population. That is why NZ is (was) good, why everyone wants to get here, and why we are getting worse
If a nation has insufficient resources to sustain the local's "required" living standards, it must trade, harness or steal them from elsewhere... We are now trading our future to please a short-sighted voting majority today

I agree, although I would argue we don't have the resources to sustain the "required" lifestyle. We are short on oil, metals, and minerals.

We do have the actual necessities though, food, space, and water.

National are selling them, which is not good.
Labour don't know what to do with them.
Greens would say we don't need them
NZF would say we should steal them
and the rest well, who knows.

Yes - the big problem is the world doesnt have the resources for everyones required lifestyles ... which spells a certain end to peace, love and harmony.

Guys, I don't disagree that NZ is a great place to live, but come on... "everyone" does NOT want to live here. Many, many countries have experienced massive swelling in net migration. NZ is comparatively small fry.
Let's use the UK as an example, roughly the same land mass but yet had net migration of 336000 in 2015, while NZ had 63000. Not to mention that over the past 20 years NZ has had years of negative net migration, whereas countries like the UK have never had more people leave than arrive. The UK have made it incredibly hard and expensive for would be immigrants to move to the UK since they joined the EU (apart from EU members obvs), and yet the numbers keep on swelling. The UK has had depressions, recessions, crisis after crisis over the past decades and yet, the numbers keep swelling. This isn't evidence that the UK is the most fantastically awesome country on the planet. People emigrate for all kinds of reasons, emotional, psychological, financial, cynical, fantastical even. But don't delude yourselves that they are swarms of people who want to live in NZ above everywhere else. Most of the countries in the OECD have been experiencing mass net migration. It's a phenomenon of globalisation.

Geography has been our savior.

UK 65,000,000 + 336,000 = +0.51%
NZ 4,500,000 + 63,000 = +1.4%

That means NZ is taking in almost three times the number of immigrants percentage-wise.
NZ also restricts immigration. More would come if they could.
Of course NZ is similar to the UK culturally. The US, UK, NZ, Canada and Australia are all popular destinations for roughly the same reasons.

number of immigrants because this is the only country in developed nation where one can get residence easily and cheaply. Fees appox $10000 To stay appox $15000 and than job letter appox $10000 to $30000 so under $50000 can get the residency and is hardly any for many.

The Nats trumpet how good the low interest rates are for all mortgage holders.
Let us see how they explain an extra percent or two as that arrives.
Just be a retiree and see how your deposit account performs.
So where are Key's votes going to come from when the market changes?
How long can you sell the sizzle and ignore the steak?

I think the trouble Labour has is who it represents. Same problem as Hillary had. (ok, so Andrew does not have $100 mil in the bank from big business) Labour represents an elite, not the poor and not low paid workers.
It's natural constituency has become government workers, teachers, health workers, bureaucrats, who are disconnected from the work pressures the actual battlers . And by comparison with many of the workers, highly paid and don't have the worry of security. Add to that lots of the labour cadres come from academia, equally well paid, secure, and not having to produce each day, and who adopt an unproductive moral high ground.
A factory worker in South Auckland struggling to find housing, or a sawmill worker in Gisbourne hoping the sawmill won't close just has nothing in common with those labour party people. Why would they vote for them.
Brexit and Trump apply here and elites are not in fashion. Labour has let itself become an elite and it's not a vote catcher.

So multi-millionaire John Key, is more representative of the working class you think? Or is it just that those who don't feel represented and so dont vote are more proportionally the traditional Labour voters? In that case it should not affect the polls as they don't ask respondents whether they could be bothered voting if the election was held tomorrow...

Good point. Key certainly should be worrying about the attack on elites. But maybe the nats talk more in a way that the punters can relate to. Or something.

when will these "rogue" polls stop??? It's been years now.

As much as you may not like John Key , he is having a longstanding relationship with TINA

There- Is - No - Alternative .

The Greens want to take us back the the 16th Century and are opposed to EVERYTHING

Labour has proposed yet another new TAX , all they ever propose is stealing and spending other peoples hard earned money until it runs out.

This time a tax on builders who are not training young builders.

That idea just cost them a few thousand votes ........ when will they ever learn ?

Winston has my vote , simply because , as a baby boomer , he will never allow any Government to fiddle with the NZ Super , but Winston will never get more than 7% of the vote , so he is a Kingmaker potentially

A good tax

Tax on builders who are not training young builders

Easily avoidable - train apprentices

GDP growth is regarded as the standard measure. It's over 3% in NZ, the list of countries with lower GDP is much too long to list.
If you prefer a measure for working people, NZ has less than 5% unemployment, again the list of countries with much higher unemployment is far too long to list

If you give a breakdown of GDP, you might be able to deduce what the driver is..

GDP per capita - how is that going?

Very sluggishly.

Backwards.