The first Roy Morgan political poll of 2017 has National up, along with the Government Confidence Rating, and Labour/Greens down

The first Roy Morgan political poll of 2017 has National up, along with the Government Confidence Rating, and Labour/Greens down

Content supplied by RoyMorgan

During January support for National rose by 1% to 46% now well ahead of a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 39.5% (down 3.5%). If a New Zealand Election was held now the latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows National would retain Government.

Support for the National partners was also up slightly with the Maori Party up 1% at 2%, Act NZ was 0.5% (unchanged) and United Future was 0.5% (unchanged).

Of the three Parliamentary Opposition parties - Labour’s support was at 27% (down 1.5%), Greens 12.5% (down 2%) and New Zealand First 9% (up 1.5%). Of the parties outside Parliament the Internet Party was 0% (down 0.5%), Conservative Party of NZ was 0.5% (unchanged) and support for Independent/ Other was 2% (up 0.5%).

The NZ Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased to 140pts (up 9pts) in January with 63% (up 4.5%) of NZ electors saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ compared to 23% (down 4.5%) that say NZ is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman, Roy Morgan Research, says:

“Today’s first New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll of the year brings good news for the new English Government with National increasing their support to 46% (up 1%) clearly ahead of a potential Labour/ Greens alliance 39.5% (down 3.5%).

“It looks increasingly likely that New Zealand First – led by New Zealand’s version of US President-elect Donald Trump, Winston Peters – will play in a big role in determining who forms Government after this year’s election – New Zealand First support increased to 9% (up 1.5%).

“English returned this week from a quick tour of Europe during which he introduced himself to UK Prime Minister Theresa May, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other important European leaders – English’s first overseas trip as New Zealand Prime Minister. All three leaders face big tests during 2017 and none bigger than English’s task to secure a fourth successive victory for the National-led Government after former Prime Minister John Key’s electoral successes in 2008, 2011 and 2014.

“The good news for English is that both the New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating – now at 140 (up 9pts) and the latest January ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating – up 4.2pts to 128.7 have responded positively following the resignation of popular former PM John Key with New Zealanders taking the elevation of English to the top job in their stride.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone, with a NZ wide cross-section of 868 electors between January 3-16, 2017. Of all electors surveyed 6.5% (up 1%) didn’t name a party.

The original report is here.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

We welcome your comments below. If you are not already registered, please register to comment.

Remember we welcome robust, respectful and insightful debate. We don't welcome abusive or defamatory comments and will de-register those repeatedly making such comments. Our current comment policy is here.

68 Comments

Comment Filter

Highlight new comments in the last hr(s).

Can't wait for February, the so called housing market bounce back. Zàijiàn National.

Awesome Fab Feb is the month Family home owners working hard to pay the mortgage with screaming kids to put through school will finally be able to sell their homes and give the Reserve Bank the middle finger for adding to their stress for months on end.

Feb will bring out all those buyers holding out since October and the massive 70,000 immigrants what the heck have they been doing?

WTF ! A tedious property spruiker seems to have been replaced by a bad AI autobot troll. Ted, you are one realestate App away from redundancy.

Well, where is the valid alternative to National?
A party loyal to NZ, proactive for small business and family-owned farms/Hort and will fully fund our hospitals, schools, universities instead of starving them to death. And will slowdown the unfettered mass immigration.
There is little difference between national & labour, excuse the pun.

Simple - NZ First. Read their policies - even sign up for their emails and you will see the truth of their direction, not what is claimed in the media.

My simple view is if house prices go up between now and the election Nationals popularity will fall and vice-versa.

still leaves WP as kingmaker, also after brexit and trump polling has been shown up for lack of accuracy whereas social media measurement has shown to be more accurate .

Think you are probably right. Probably not a bad balance.

..hysterical. About as accurate as the Trump polling Id say.

One big problem: to vote Labour effectively you are voting for the Greens

Eventually the world is going to have to accept and adopt green policies, might as well do it while we have something left to do it for.

But who wants legalised drugs and all the other rubbish that they bring

Legalising marijuana may be the only way to counteract "P" people have sought out mind altering substances since time began, prohibition does not work. I would rather see people able to access the marijuana they want but have "P" basically forced on them due to them both being classified the same way, illegal.
Perhaps you should read through Green policy.

With cannabis, it's the illegality that causes the problems, not the substance itself. Violence, homicide, intimidation, corruption, money-laundering, and everything else that comes with the infrastructure of organised crime. And you'll find a lot of police agree, and would be all for Joe Average and his mum being able to grow a couple of plants for personal use, rather than the current system, which sends teenagers to gang-run tinnie houses where they'll be more than happy to push P, which is easier to manufacture and much more profitable. And if we could get into growing for medical and pharmaceutical use, all the better. There's a lot of dedicated cannabis-growing expertise in New Zealand that could be harnessed for good. Ironically enough, with the way things are going now, legalise dope, and the pre-existing organised crime networks who are left high and dry might switch to black market tobacco.

I don't think anyone has actually read through Green policy. They just make scary shit up and pretend it's true.

There are lots of ill effects from cannabis.
Loss of motivation, libido, paranoia, long term effect on the brain. Not to mention very bad physiological harm as per tobacco. Companies test staff for it for a good reason and that is the behaviour changes that it brings are linked to higher accident statistics, and we can be pretty certain if it increases accidents that cause physical harm, work and every other aspect of peoples lives will similarly suffer. We have enough harm causing drugs I don't want more.

Well, I guess you don't know too much about cannabis, then, ever heard of green brownies? You do not have to smoke it, because, yes, smoking anything is not that good for you. You can vape it as well.
Cannabis is not the only drug that messes with peoples lives in ways you describe, one in particular I am thinking of, alcohol. Overuse of any drug is not really advisable, be it cannabis or alcohol. Then again you may be advocating we get rid of alcohol as well, are you? If you are I can understand your argument.
On the paranoia, that would kind of melt away once you weren't thinking you could be in trouble with the law by having the occasional hooter.

Some countries manage without the extremes of the Philippines.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2010/jun/05/singapore-policy-d...

Netherlands seems to manage pretty well.

Really
Cannabis use Netherlands 15.6% Singapore 0.005%
Ecstasy use Netherlands 12.7% Singapore 0.003%

I'd say those figures are pretty low, considering you don't have to fear going to jail for it. What about alcohol, have you got those figures for a bit of a comparison, only fair.

My point was it's hardly a 'hot bed of crime' despite people having access to cannabis. 'The sky will fall' argument around cannabis legalization is not grounded in fact or reality.

Eventually the Greens will have to state their only real policy. Population control. After all it's we the people causing the issues.

Even if everyone goes Vegan, rides bikes, and lives in straw huts, we will still be mining, deforesting, and pillaging to fit everyone in.

I don't believe there is a political party around that is seriously prepared to address that issue, one of the reasons I will keep my options open in case one turns up. Lowering the human population of the planet would solve just about every issue you can think of, and with the rise of technology and robotics, done right, we don't even need to worry about how we can afford our old age.
My hero on this is David Attenborough www.populationmatters.org

Change is the need of the time.

10
up

I don't really care who gets it at this point, but strongly in favour of a change before the corruption gets any more entrenched. Our government has become alarmingly shady in the past few years. I've never been a member of any party, and don't subscribe to the 'my team right or wrong' mindset, but I'm strongly anti-corruption, whoever's doing it.

So true, The Labour-Greens coalition will have their first ever State of the Nation speech together this year before the election.

I think a Labour-Greens-NZ First coalition Government after the 2017 NZ Election would be very dysfunctional.

10
up

The polls are being used as another tool of voter suppression. The polls are an attempted to not reflect Puplic opinion, but to shape it. Yours. They want to depress the heck out of you. Rush Limbaugh.

Earlier had no internet and no social media but the so called experts forgets that times have changed and Result is Brexit and Trump. At that time also, all so called experts and pollster were speaking what they wanted but.............

Election not far off and is good as such survey will give false confidence to national.

LoL

Kiwimannz you are 100 % correct.You should have been blocked by now if not please respond or will know that you have been blocked as I know how the so called experts and their website works

Interesting. Kiwimannz please respond or will know the truth how independent the media and so called experts are. Truth is hard to digest.

Not surprising as English has a lot more credibility than Key and the shine was rubbing off Key.
English will start loosing his credibility if he continues to ignore Immigration, housing and try to blame Auckland CC. Good moves on the trade front in Europe though; we desperately need some good alternatives to our heavy dependence on China.
NZ First maybe, but I am getting the impression that Peters is getting past it. A while back on TV he was scrambling a bit like the proverbial possum caught in the headlights.
Labour/Greens some good stuff, but Labours immigration policy is just a watered down version of the National Ponzie scheme and while the Greens have a few good policies, there are some like their drugs policy that are plain scary and Labour are flaky enough to go along with it.
So who do you vote for? There is really not a decent choice among them. Maybe NZ First. I neither like or trust Peters, but at least he should try to stop immigration whoever is in power and push for a bit of common sense looking out for the interests of the average Kiwi and that is what is missing with all the rest.

you can only hope the opportunist party will steal votes from Winston,though i dont think too many mothers would want gareth kissing their babies.

Gareth has a few good Ideas and if his personal success could be reflected in running the country, that would be good. Big but however, very few people will vote for a party that taxes the family home or for that matter the batch.

I don't think Gareth smokes so I wouldn't be keen having Winnie hovering over any kid of mine with his tobacco breath.

My observation from lurking round social media is that he will steal votes from the Greens. He does seem to be gaining some traction but I'm not sure if that's an echo chamber effect.

He will possibly grab the votes of those do not vote Green because they think we can continue to grown AND save the environment, I do not think we can. Looks like slowly, slowly catchee monkey getting people to understand this, too bad the people of the USA have shut their collective ears about this

Umm... Is Mr English still going to maintain that Overseas Investors were only 4% of the Auckland market. That one isn't going to fly if this property sales/price drop continues over the next few months, people are going to be asking questions as to why?

They may ask questions, but they will never get an answer

he would be happy if the prices drop and he got the credit.

Surprising that National has strengthened after John Keys exit but well done Mr English. Yes I agree too NZ is heading in the right direction, we are very lucky to live in this country

National have just doubled down on their destructive policies in my opinion. Getting rid of the housing minister says it all. Continuing to flood the country with rent seeking foreign capital while denying it's happening doesn't make it less real. Denying that the Chinese are buying tens of thousands of family homes all over Auckland doesn't make it less real. What it does mean is a significant reduction in long term living standards for families who've been p[riced out of home ownership in Auckland.

Everyone knows but vested interest of politicians and so callec experts will be in denial and manipulation.

Anyone who speaks truth is either censored or blocked. May be I too will be blocked.

roy morgan polls claim to use landlines and mobile in their polling,anybody got personal experience of that?

Nope

I wonder where they get the mobile numbers to include. If it's the ones listed in the white pages, it's probably even more skewed than just using landlines, because who the hell does that? This is speculation of course, but would listed mobile numbers skew to phones used for business purposes, perhaps?

People put their cell phone numbers in the white pages? Of course they are in the Yellow Pages, but the White Pages?? (It has been a while since I could read the print in phone books without specs and I can never be bothered looking for them, so Mr Google it is for me)

There used to be a thing where you could add a cellphone to your White Pages listing. I remember it being advertised on TV. It's years and years since I've either watched broadcast TV or opened a paper White Pages, so no clue if this is still an option. If it isn't, where are the cellphone numbers coming from?

Databases from providers? I can't imagine it's random tip tapping on a phone dial till you get a response, that would be a bit too hit and miss (more miss than hit) and you would not want to be working on a commission doing that

Is it legal for providers to release that? Reverse-lookup is illegal in NZ, and to get that information you'd have to persuade the providers that the reason overrides the Privacy Act. I suppose it might be possible to buy the data if people have provided their numbers on websites, but that's still far from being either representative or random.

What polling companies do is they have a list of characteristics which is true for the population -gender, income groupings, ethnicities, locations, ages etc. They randomly contact people (by landline or whatever mobile phone list they have) and when they have the required total number of people and the correct % of each characteristic they stop.

Obviously this process allows errors to creep in..... Only when the whole population is sampled i.e. something like an election or census can the process be reset...

I was thinking more like maybe they can just give a list of active numbers, nothing else, but I don't know, just what I think might be.

Survey are based on minimum number of people so why not interest.co.nz does an online survey on its website.

because we can't do scientific polling. Specifically we can't protect from gaiming, and we can't ensure the sample is random. We stopped our unscientific "polls" because they were gamed, and actually told us nothing reliable. If you take our Comments, they tell you nothing about our readers or their demographics. We use proper analysis for that (as you would expect).

I would be keen to do proper polling. But unfortunatley we would need a budget far greater than we could justify. Anyone want to stump up with $5K for a basic poll, but $20K for an indepth one? Then we would find that they only make sense when you do them regularly and find trends. $100K anyone for an annual commitment?

would it have any more value than roy morgan?they dont subscribe to the political polling code that has a set of standards to adhere to.and there is the risk of commentators with alter egos getting more than one vote.

No it will not. No survey or polls had predicted what happened in UK and USA. Times have changed and more the polls or so called experts try to influence - greater the retaliation in today's world.wait n watch.

Maybe it wasn't the polls; it was the analysis of them?

You need a basic understanding of statistical math to understand what polls are saying. It is undergrad level. Sadly few people bother to take the time; they would rather fire off a shoot-from-the-lip judgment. Conclusions first, then find a few random details that support it.

I think a big problem is there are different sources of margin of errors. The standard one we hear of is the sample population is not representative of the total population.

But there are other errors. Not everyone votes and not everyone responds to surveys. What happens if the survey company -Roy Morgan estimates of what proportion of different type voters actually vote is wrong? -young versus old, renters versus owners, low versus high income earners, male versus females etc. If there assumed proportions are wrong this adds a big additional methodology error into polling.

I think with decreasing numbers of people voting and people fractioning away from single trusted sources of media news -TVOne news for instance -to their own echo chamber sources of news on social media etc this methodology error increases.

Last time there was a political poll on Interest I voted about 15 times for several parties using my solitary sign-in, with no problems whatsoever. Don't think I even had to clear the cookies.

Haha. You have far too much spare time....

Haha. I clicked on an option, noticed that it didn't cut me off after a vote, and mucked about with it occasionally over the next couple of weeks to see if it would ever cut me off, or put in any restrictions. Never did. I spread the fake votes around the parties, but didn't have to.

Which is why online polls are always to be taken with a pinch of salt. Self-selected pool of voters, no verification or prevention of duplicates, and often as not the questions are carefully worded to split the votes on one side and come out with a pre-determined outcome. And how often do you see an online poll which is chugging along with a boring 55-45 split for days, and then suddenly leaps to 90-10, because some zealot has called in the army of flying monkeys?

the popular former PM john key mentioned at the conclusion congratulated curia market research for being on the money for forecasting the election results.i dont think you need a degree to understand what polls are saying,they have already been dumbed down for common consumption or are they like the da vinci code that can only be deciphered by the elite few?

There is another aspect of misunderstanding what the technical results say, one that is studied but rarely gets much mention. And that is that the older we get, the more likley we are to trust our 'experience' over what the data shows. It is an increased problem now there are a bigger proportion of boomers. They don't want to do any hard analysis anymore; they believe they have earned the right to just go with their gut instinct without any hard analysis or intense thinking.

They especially dismiss anyone who does study the data and draw proper techincal conclusions, now with the new labels "the elite", "the experts" as easy putdowns.

Their problem is that it is very easy to take advantage of such shallow thinking. (And they will find that out soon. Will probably make them even more angry, but they will only have themselves to blame. The education and systems are there. Those that choose to ignore them can't really blame others.)

Here are a couple of places to start:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8eSOmTPUbk

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability_bounds_analysis

Those who have taken undergrad stats or math courses have a huge advantage over those that haven't. They are much more likely to avoid self-scamming when it comes to poll results, sample design, and confidence levels.

Still not likely to do any work? Well, perhaps this may help.

"earned the right to just go with their gut instinct". Yeah well, perhaps the gut getting bigger has some sort of effect of the amount of instinct it is able to generate, you know :D

it is easier to recognise ignorance in others than ones self,so i will go away and pursue these tasks you have set me chastoned never to return.

The polls themselves, and the biased analysis, was clearly incorrect leading up to the successful Trump election.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/09/how-wrong-were-the-polls-in-p...
The swing states where Trump won, were tracking to Clinton according to the poll numbers and according to the 'analysis'.

The pre Brexit polls were also wrong, due, possibly to low voter turnout and an unforeseen event, and of course conventional analysis
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/07/04/why-the-majority-of-brexit-polls-were-wro...

Has Zachery Smith posted today?? National radio mentioned that a kiwi with that name died in an industrial accident in Qatar yesterday. I am worried that it is our Zachery!

Never fear, Smith is here!

Shit hot!!!