National Party remains ‘dead-locked’ with Labour/Greens alliance in May in the latest Roy Morgan poll taken just before this week's Budget

National Party remains ‘dead-locked’ with Labour/Greens alliance in May in the latest Roy Morgan poll taken just before this week's Budget

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New Zealand’s governing National Party is unchanged with 43% support in May virtually level with the opposition Labour/Greens on 42.5% (unchanged) before this week’s New Zealand Budget delivered a second straight annual surplus.

The tight result means the strong support for New Zealand First on 10% (down 0.5%) once gain has Winston Peter’s party in a strong position to decide which parties will form New Zealand’s next Government after September’s election.

  • The overall support for the governing National-led coalition was down slightly to 45% with National support unchanged at 43%, support for the Maori Party increasing 0.5% to 1.5% while Act NZ was down 1% to 0.5% and support for United Future was unchanged at 0%.
     
  • Support for a potential Labour/Greens alliance was unchanged at 42.5% with support for Labour down 1% to 28.5%, while support for the Greens rose 1% to 14%. Support for New Zealand First was down 0.5% to 10%.
     
  • Of the parties currently outside Parliament support for the Mana party rose 1% to 1%, while support for their allies the Internet party remained at 0%, support for the Conservative Party was down 0.5% to 0% and support for Independents/Others was up 0.5% to 1.5%.

New Zealand Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating up in May

The Roy Morgan Government Confidence Rating has increased 4.5pts to 133.5pts in May with 60.5% of NZ electors (up 2.5%) saying NZ is ‘heading in the right direction’ cf. 27% of NZ electors (down 2%) that say New Zealand is ‘heading in the wrong direction’.

Gary Morgan, Executive Chairman of Roy Morgan Research, says the large Budget surplus could be a turning point for National allowing the Government to substantially increase spending across several important areas of the New Zealand economy:

“Before yesterday’s New Zealand Budget support for National on 43% and for a potential Labour/ Greens alliance on 42.5% was virtually ‘dead-locked’ with NZ First on 10% support in a strong position to decide who will run New Zealand’s next Government.

“However, the predicted $1.62 billion surplus handed down by new Treasurer Steven Joyce is likely to be a significant ‘game-changer’ for the Government. The projected Budget surpluses over the next few years allows the National Government to campaign robustly on economic management and gives the Government the flexibility to target new spending where it’s most needed.

“Joyce announced $11 billion of new infrastructure spending over the next four years in addition to the $21 billion already planned and the adjustments to tax thresholds and social spending will result in a $6.5 billion increase to family incomes as New Zealand deals with record inward immigration which have fuelled a house price boom – particularly in Auckland.”

Electors were asked: “If a New Zealand Election were held today which party would receive your party vote?” This latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll on voting intention was conducted by telephone – both landline and mobile telephone – with a NZ wide cross-section of 856 electors between May 1-14, 2017. Of all electors surveyed 5.5% (down 1.5%) didn’t name a party.

The original report is here.

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In my opinion, the next government will ironically not be decided by policies but by which of National or Labour will be able to convince (= make concessions) Winston to work with them. This has been so, in my opinion, since John Key resigned.

In the unlikely event Winnie is the king maker, he will side with National. He has already said he will no work with the Greens. So any way you look at it, National are here for at least THREE MORE YEARS!

I suggest you watch Winston's recent budget speech. He was gushing with admiration for the National party.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=18-jmEqeTCY

Oh wait. No. The opposite of that.

Listen very carefully to his views and principles. His views are very incompatible with neoliberal globalist National party and in many areas quite overlapping with those of Labour and the Greens.

National and their supporters should be quite concerned. Their days are numbered.

What Winston says , and what Winston does are 2 different things. He will go with whoever offers him the most power. And he can justify going with National by saying they recieve the most votes. Even if Labour/Greens get a higher % , he can still say National is the single party with the most votes.

Labour have had nothing to do over the last nine years but prepare to become Govt ,
Judging on the policies that they have announced so far they have wasted 9 years.
Where are the ground breaking policies that show us that they have had their heads down and arses up for the last 9 years.
More of the same.Change not required if thats all they can offer,just more of the same.

I'm not sure Labour wants the Govt benches. They look to me they are happy taking their salaries for having next to nothing to do, or have responsibility for..The only party that is really desperate for the Govt benches is the Greens party! LOL.

Despite national''s election year budget - This time will be vote for change and rightly so.

I don't think Winston is the king maker he is made out to be. He seems tired , and I don't think he will get his usual election bounce. There is only so many people who agree with his policies, and Labour has stolen his thunder on immigration. National are not keen to work with him , and there is also a possiblity of them or Labour/green forming a minority government.
That may be the best outcome.

I can't see how National can't retain power. Under MMP the party with the biggest vote has the first opportunity to cobble together a government. Everyone has their price and it is just a question of Winston's price is.

There is no such rule. Whichever collection of parties can cobble together a majority of seats forms the government.

Despite Nationals meager performance I just couldn't vote Labour if I wanted to because they are with the Greens. Will have to stick with Blue.

and your logic is?

I don't want greens anywhere near in power. Thats my logic.