90 seconds at 9 am: First-home buyers win, investors lose in Sydney

US withdraws from Paris climate agreement; First-home buyers given hand up in NSW; China's factory activity contracts contrary to US & Europe; Chinese govt boosts yuan; UST 10yr yield 2.22%; oil stable, gold down; NZ$1 = 70.6 US¢, TWI-5 = 75.1

2nd Jun 17, 8:08am by Jenée Tibshraeny

Here's my summary of what's made headlines overnight, with news President Donald Trump has announced the US will withdraw from the Paris climate agreement. He’s stuck to his guns, saying the landmark agreement is harming the economy.

It could take the US - the world’s second largest emitter of greenhouse gases - nearly four years to complete its withdrawal. This essentially means a final decision will be up to American voters in the next election.

The New South Wales Government is introducing new measures to level the playing field between first-home buyers and property investors. From next month it’ll broaden the criteria for stamp duty exemptions, enabling first-home buyers to save up to around A$25,000. At the same time, it’ll hiked its stamp duty surcharge for investors and removed some concessions available to those who buy off the plan.

On the supply side, the government will give local councils interest rate subsidies for borrowing for eligible projects. It’ll also spend an additional A$3 billion on infrastructure to boost housing supply.

London-based investors in Australia's banks are fretting a number of changes in housing market policies could create a sharp property market correction. ANZ chief executive Shayne Elliott says investors are also worried high household debt have lifted housing market risk. The Aussie banks rely on foreign investors to fund the A$400 billion gap between domestic deposits and overall lending to the economy.

China's factory activity has contracted for the first time in 11 months. The Caixin Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) shows output and new orders slowed, while companies shed jobs in May.

In spite of this, China’s central bank has guided the yuan to its biggest one-day jump in five months. This is the latest sign authorities are trying to bolster the currency in the wake of Moody’s downgrading China's credit rating.

Contrary to China, manufacturing activity in the likes of India, Japan and Europe were strong in May. In fact, Eurozone manufacturing employment rose at a record pace according to HIS Markit. The boost was mainly driven by stronger expansion in Germany, where the rate of increase was the fastest in over six years.

Manufacturing activity also grew in the US in May, with the overall economy growing for the 96th consecutive month according to ISM. Backing this up, ADP data shows private payrolls added 253,000 jobs in May.

Markets will be paying close attention to whether the non-farm payrolls report out overnight gives the Federal Reserve the ammunition it needs to hike interest rates in the US.

In New York, the UST 10yr yield has inched up to 2.22%.

The US crude benchmark oil price remains at US$48 a barrel, while the Brent benchmark is at US$50.

The gold price slid back a little to US$1,266/oz.

The New Zealand dollar remains strong at 70.6 USc. It's continued to strengthen to 95.7 AU¢ and has dropped back a touch to 63.0 euro cents. The TWI-5 index is at 75.1.

If you want to catch up with all the changes yesterday, we have an update here.

The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».

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95 Comments

by Zombie ponzi | 2nd Jun 17, 8:29am 1496348999

Oh Australia (and New Zealand)....why did you have to blow such massive bubbles!?!
https://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2017/06/10-years-economic-blunders-com…

by Stephen Hulme | 2nd Jun 17, 9:17am 1496351865

Blame it all on China?

China’s PMI’s were uniformly disappointing with respect to what Moody’s was on about last week. Chinese authorities expended great effort and resources to get the economy moving forward again after several years of “dollar”-driven deceleration. There was a massive “stimulus” spending program where State-owned FAI expenditures of about 2% of GDP were elicited to make up for Private FAI that at one point last year was actually contracting. In addition, the PBOC has pushed the limits of de-dollarizing China all in the attempt at rectifying monetary contraction that it thought handled (with traditional cuts) in 2015.

With that background, a sluggish improvement in 2017 over 2016 is actually no improvement at all. I know that I keep writing the same thing over and over (and over and over), but until it stops being true that’s all I can put down. With the cyclical nature of any upswing combined with so much “stimulus”, lackluster is truly disappointing especially more than a year past the most recent trough. I believe that more than anything was the driving message of Moody’s downgrade.

The more time passes, the less it looks like there is any plausible pathway to regain 2011-type economic momentum let alone pre-crisis growth rates. That’s a problem for a country stuffed with credit, most of which was initiated on the premise that China’s “miracle” was only temporarily delayed by a Great “Recession”; a permanent state of low and uneven growth is an entirely more risky situation.

That is what the PMI’s are suggesting for May 2017, just as they have for years. Since 2012, the aftermath of the “dollar” events in 2011, there is only the intermittent exchange of signs; low growth gives way to shallow contraction and then back again. China’s “official” manufacturing PMI, the NBS version, seems to have up to now stalled out at the point right around where it did in 2014. Read more

by gingerninja | 2nd Jun 17, 8:43am 1496349824

"If you do not already have your dough parked offshore then do it. If you are long Aussie equity, get long bonds instead. If you are long property then visit your priest.
Australia is about to decouple completely from the global reflation. Get your money out."

Oh dear.

by dictator | 2nd Jun 17, 1:21pm 1496366487

If professional investors get spooked and exit, then next up are the savvy smaller investors and when full blown panic happens the everyday people will be left holding the bag. I'm wondering how long this is going to take for panic to fully set in.

by murray86 | 2nd Jun 17, 8:45am 1496349912

Oh dear the poor, misunderstood, horribly maligned banking investors are worried that their easy money might be under threat!

I like the look of what the Aussies are doing. It makes some sense whilst not kicking all the legs out from under the market. Trouble is the investor and banking reaction may create effects that make the situation a lot worse.

by FatFreddy | 2nd Jun 17, 10:07am 1496354842

These institutional investors are pension fund managers. The type looking after people's hard earned money, not "easy" money at all.

by MikeM | 2nd Jun 17, 8:57am 1496350621

The Trump admin are winding back like it's 1965. A childish, archaic decision to satisfy the small group of constituents who failed to adapt to the changing economic realities. Thumbs down.

by Ralph | 2nd Jun 17, 11:47am 1496360840

It can't have been that small a group - he did win the election.

by profile | 2nd Jun 17, 1:40pm 1496367644

Laughable. It's the ecoloon Paris agreementeers that want to go back to 1965. A factoid often quietly overlooked by the MSM. Unless you have figured out a way to get by with a fraction of todays agriculture, energy and industry?

“To hit the Paris climate goals without geoengineering, the world has to do three broad (and incredibly ambitious) things:

1) Global CO2 emissions from energy and industry have to fall in half each decade. That is, in the 2020s, the world cuts emissions in half. Then we do it again in the 2030s. Then we do it again in the 2040s. They dub this a “carbon law.”

2) Net emissions from land use — i.e., from agriculture and deforestation — have to fall steadily to zero by 2050. This would need to happen even as the world population grows and we’re feeding ever more people.

3) Technologies to suck carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere have to start scaling up massively, until we’re artificially pulling 5 gigatons of CO2 per year out of the atmosphere by 2050 — nearly double what all the world’s trees and soils already do.”

https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/3/23/15028480/roadmap-pa...

by SimonP | 2nd Jun 17, 9:22pm 1496395354

It could happen. There is a (literally) quiet revolution going on in battery storage technology.
If we don't at least try, then we are screwing the environment for future generations.
Try test driving an electric vehicle one day; no emissions, no noise, faster acceleration, more reliable, far more efficient and far cheaper to run.

by profile | 3rd Jun 17, 11:56am 1496447800

Great if storage tech does happen. Meanwhile get some perspective. It was was warming naturally at 0.16 degrees per decade 1910-1945 with 1/7 of industry today. The satellite era is running at 0.11/degrees per decade. So if we follow Paris we bring industry and energy CO2 emission back to 1945 levels for a paltry 0.17 degrees by 2100. It's margin of error stuff given the natural pre WW2 interglacial warming.

Inter glacial warming - get used to it.

"Do you agree that according to the global temperature record used by the IPCC, the rates of global warming from 1860-1880, 1910-1940 and 1975-1998 were identical?

An initial point to make is that in the responses to these questions I've assumed that when you talk about the global temperature record, you mean the record that combines the estimates from land regions with those from the marine regions of the world. CRU produces the land component, with the Met Office Hadley Centre producing the marine component.

Temperature data for the period 1860-1880 are more uncertain, because of sparser coverage, than for later periods in the 20th Century. The 1860-1880 period is also only 21 years in length. As for the two periods 1910-40 and 1975-1998 the warming rates are not statistically significantly different (see numbers below).

I have also included the trend over the period 1975 to 2009, which has a very similar trend to the period 1975-1998.

So, in answer to the question, the warming rates for all 4 periods are similar and not statistically significantly different from each other. "

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8511670.stm

by profile | 2nd Jun 17, 9:23am 1496352190

At last a politician who actually keeps a campaign promise. Come 2100 it is going to be the US portion of 0.17 degrees warmer. I hope the children will be ok. And spare a thought for those on the chicken little gravy train missing out.

“In a best-case, overly optimistic scenario it will cut global temperatures by just 0.17°C (0.3°F) by 2100.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/bjornlomborg/2015/12/07/whats-the-price-ta…

by MikeM | 2nd Jun 17, 9:38am 1496353083

A small reduction in temps is certainly better than more increases.

by JB | 2nd Jun 17, 10:06am 1496354763

Don't see a small rise as any great issue - we still have a way to go to reach medieval warm period temperatures around 1300. Warmer, wetter, higher CO2 makes for more food production needed to feed the ever expanding world population in itself a far greater threat to the planet than a 0.0001 part change in a minor warming atmospheric gas.

by gingerninja | 2nd Jun 17, 10:32am 1496356347

I think a large part of the concern for even moderate rises in temperature and wetness, are the associated rises in sea level. It wouldn't take much of a rise in sea levels for a lot of prime western world real estate to be under water. New York is at particular risk.
Interestingly, even in very high sea levels rises, New Zealand will be much less damaged than many other countries.

by RickStrauss | 2nd Jun 17, 11:24am 1496359483

Imagine the flooding we'll be seeing on Tamaki Drive in the future. They'll be looking for taxpayer bailouts, for sure.

by JB | 2nd Jun 17, 11:41am 1496360494

My view is that a lot of the northern hemisphere warming is driven by particulates ie pollution of which there is no doubt will cause melting vs the lack of warming in the Antarctic which argues for anthropogenic warming - but not predominantly CO2

A good reason to get rid of coal longer term all the while remembering when the poor of India have no choices - coal is the cheapest 24 hr electricity option for many years to come

by Glenno25 | 2nd Jun 17, 1:16pm 1496366181

JB. Google "Global Dimming", it's believed that pollution/smog is COOLING the planet by reflecting the sun. When all the planes stopped flying over USA (9/11) for 3 days, the medium temps over 5000 recording sites in USA showed a temp increase of just over 1C. It dropped back when the planes were back flying. In other words, if we stop polluting & stopped planes, globally temps may rise dramatically. The problem of course is that smog particles break down within weeks, were as CO2 takes like 100yrs or so. Flightradar24.com will give you an idea of what 60% of the worlds airborne planes looks like.

by Noncents | 2nd Jun 17, 12:18pm 1496362683

Sea level rises? What a joke.

1. Do this experiment at home. Get a glass. Put some ice cubes in it, then fill with water. Draw a line around the glass where the water is. Wait until the ice cubes melt then look at the water level.

2. Take a look at the Aral sea, the Ganges, etc... The water is disappearing due to irrigation, farming, and overpopulation. Same thing happening in the South Island rivers. Point being - we are removing far more water from the system than will ever be put back in.

3. Freemantle has the oldest tidal gauge in the world, over the last 100 years the data showed a sea level rise - however once properly examined - it was proven that it was coastal subsidence that caused the changes.

4. Kaikoura ring a bell? 7m extra of coastline in a few minutes.

Yes Maldives are going under, but islands comes and go all the time. We claim humans are great adapters, so adapt and move.

I don't deny climate change is happening in some form. But thinking we are going to see mutant Kevin Costners sailing around in Waterworld is just plain crazy.

by nymad | 2nd Jun 17, 12:33pm 1496363626

The limit to your ineptitude still has not been found, huh?

"1. Do this experiment at home. Get a glass. Put some ice cubes in it, then fill with water. Draw a line around the glass where the water is. Wait until the ice cubes melt then look at the water level."
You have never heard of thermal expansion, before?
Do you want an experiment so as you can prove this, at home?

by Conrad | 2nd Jun 17, 12:39pm 1496363975

It's worse than that - noncents appears to be unaware of the existence of Greenland and Antarctica, and the masses of ice that lie upon them.

by Noncents | 2nd Jun 17, 12:56pm 1496365014

Well aware, but as pointed out we as a planet are taking more water out the system than putting in. We will eventually need that water to not be frozen at the poles.

Man made climate change is a minor, minor, component of our destruction of the planet. The ecosystem isn't currently suffering due to CO2 and temperatures.

We are deforesting, stripping, consuming, and killing everything at a far faster rate than a few CO2 emissions ever will. At this rate, by the time the temp goes up 1c we will have no forests, fish, drinking water, or mega-fauna (outside of those that are farmed).

But fine - you keep worring about CO2.

As a final point - sea levels (if they do rise) will be at a very gradual rate - we are not going to see 20FT increases overnight. We claim humans are smart and adaptable - so adapt, is it really hard to move back a block or two from the coast - don't expect a few sea walls, and other engineering fantasies to stop Mother Nature.

by Noncents | 2nd Jun 17, 12:43pm 1496364193

Yes I have - Can't be bothered responding today though. I note your disagreement, lack of evidence, and the complete irrelevancy of your post to decent debate.

by Kakapo | 2nd Jun 17, 12:56pm 1496365013

How is thermal expansion irrelevant, in your view? Please explain.

by Noncents | 2nd Jun 17, 1:11pm 1496365861

Ah, the good old you provide evidence, but I don't have to provide any counter evidence other than making a statement post.

I am not saying thermal expansion is irrelevant. I am saying his post is.

So I ask you, can you please explain in your view, how his post encourages rational, open debate?

He provides no counter argument to any of my points, no views of his own. Nothing other than a question about whether I have I heard of thermal expansion. Which I could have answered with a simple "yes" - wow enlightening.

by nymad | 2nd Jun 17, 1:16pm 1496366197

How is my post irrelevant when it directly questions the first point of your post, supporting your stated hypothesis that sea level rise is a "joke"?

by nymad | 2nd Jun 17, 1:00pm 1496365224

My lack of evidence for a fundamental principle of thermodynamics?
And a very key element of you debating that sea level rise won't occur because ice takes up a greater volume than water at a given equilibrium temperature?

C'mon. Entertain us. It's Friday.
Being categorically wrong has never stopped you from arguing, before..

by Noncents | 2nd Jun 17, 1:12pm 1496365977

Nor you it should be noted.

That was but one element of my post. But hey get hung up on that one bit. Bleat on about it until Kingdom Come, then crow you were right when temperatures rise after we have felled the last tree, eaten the last fish, and spilled the last of the fresh water.

I bet being right never felt so good.

by nymad | 2nd Jun 17, 1:17pm 1496366262

I may be one part, but it was a pretty damn important part.

by Noncents | 2nd Jun 17, 1:23pm 1496366625

Point 1 in my post, is the simplest, most basic 3rd form science experiment to demonstrate thermal expansion.

Your question would suggest you are the one that does not understand thermal expansion?

by nymad | 2nd Jun 17, 1:35pm 1496367337

How so?
The melting of ice does not disprove thermal expansion of matter...

by Noncents | 2nd Jun 17, 1:39pm 1496367580

Huh? I am saying the melting of ice does proves thermal expansion of matter.

Hence my point. Even if all the polar sea ice on earth were to melt. Sea levels would not rise.

by Glenno25 | 2nd Jun 17, 2:25pm 1496370326

Ice floating in the oceans (like ice cubes in a glass) is not going to cause sea levels to rise, BUT ice on land masses such as Greenland & Antarctica will cause sea levels to rise as it melts and pours into the oceans. (Try leaving a few bags of ice on ya kitchen bench for the day & observe what happens). Ice melt on Greenland appears to also be causing that land mass to uplift and could be the cause of a huge rise in earthquakes on the artic fault in recent years. Scientists now believe that sea level rise & the movement of water from the poles towards the equator could affect the earths tectonic plates (and earhquakes) from changes in weight distribution. We are living in interesting times, and the talk over the whole of this thread highlights the problems that humanity has created for itself.

by Noncents | 2nd Jun 17, 2:22pm 1496370124

Yes I know this - and it was addressed in other posts

As for this:

"Scientists now believe that sea level rise & the movement of water from the poles towards the equator could affect the earths tectonic plates (and earhquakes) from changes in weight distribution."

I find it quite amusing you allude to this. Many have been saying for years that the moons effect on tides and the ocean could cause earthquakes (using the very same theory as above). Yet scientists have consistently rebuked the idea as lunacy.

My main belief - which seems to have been lost in all the arguments is that we will strike far more severe and catastrophic issues before global warming is a real threat.

by nymad | 2nd Jun 17, 2:26pm 1496370394

Okay,so what about the rise in ocean temperature?
That is the whole basis for the thermal expansion argument - ya know the increase in volume of this relative to an x degree increase in ocean temperature.

by Noncents | 2nd Jun 17, 2:38pm 1496371102

My post was clearly lacking in detail, after all it is a comment in a comments section not a thesis.

So I will expand a bit.

Point 2 - use of water. We are using far more than is produced (I know this is not technically correct as it is a distribution issue) but I am hoping you understand what I mean. Lakes, rivers, and underground aquifers are all drying up.

Thermal expansion will indeed hit the ocean, but it is countered by the following.

1. Expansion of the oceans leads to a larger surface area.
2. A larger surface area, and a warmer temperature leads to more oceanic evaporation.
3. This creates more rain.
4. Rain falls on land, flows into streams, rivers, and lakes.
5. Humans use (misuse) said water therefore it does not flow back into the Ocean.
6. Result = no discernible change in sea level. (obviously I don't have actual stats - no one does)

Now in terms of continental ice - we are seeing glaciers all over NZ disappear. But interestingly the flow of water expected from them is not occurring. Mainly due to human use along the way. Argentina is also seeing similar results, and as mentioned in my original post the Ganges (Which is fed my melt from the Himalayan Glaciers).

As for Antarctica, we are talking centuries before it experience a complete melt, and if it does, yes sea levels will rise - but it will take time, and we are able to adapt. It has been rain forest before, and will be again - regardless of human interaction.

by kiwichas | 3rd Jun 17, 1:02pm 1496451770

The levels would rise if the average sea temp was higher, which it would be to melt the ice.

by dollar_bill | 2nd Jun 17, 12:52pm 1496364733

oh dear - must have been a good lunch at your school

by nymad | 2nd Jun 17, 1:06pm 1496365581

I agree.
He has noted in the past that it is harder for him to find work 'consulting' and it's due to him living in New Plymouth. I fear the real reason stems from a much more fundamental issue than geographic location..

by Noncents | 2nd Jun 17, 1:14pm 1496366049

Play the ball not the man.

by Chris_J | 2nd Jun 17, 1:18pm 1496366316

Noncents is actually relatively right you guys.

Do the maths, if you have an ice cube floating in a glass of water and it melts the volume will be the same.

Why? Ice is less dense than water (which is why it floats) and of course using Archimedes Principle you can calculate how much of the ice is above the water line (5th form Physics...remember!). So if all the sea ice in the world melted instantly right now there would be no rise in sea level.

Also given almost all continental land masses are sinking, it is no surprise historical data shows sea level rises. Uplift happens only intermittently (in general) during earthquakes. As we saw in Kaikoura 2m of uplift in seconds.

If all land ice melted, yes there might be a problem (sea levels during the ice age were much different). But the world is constantly changing, what were sea beds are now mountain tops, and in reality solar cycles probably have more impact on our climate than anything else.

Trump is right to dump a dud deal that pays billions to the third world so the third world can keep increasing pollution. Everyone else has been scammed by the lying Clinton (and Gore) media train...

by Noncents | 2nd Jun 17, 1:25pm 1496366703

Well at least someone else has some common sense and can piece all the bits of the puzzle together.

by rastus1 | 2nd Jun 17, 2:01pm 1496368912

.ummmdah. A lot of ice is not floating in the wtaer...it sits on rocks. God help me....ignorance or friday madness.

by Chris_J | 2nd Jun 17, 2:21pm 1496370097

Yes madness... Why such a fuss about arctic sea ice or the Ross Sea then?

It's not that it's a total non issue, it's just not the issue the #fakenews make it out to be...

by Noncents | 2nd Jun 17, 2:28pm 1496370521

Ignorance? or just plain realism.

Yes it could be an issue, but we have far more urgent issues to address than melting ice.

by RickStrauss | 2nd Jun 17, 11:23am 1496359432

Relevant XKCD:

https://xkcd.com/1732/

by gingerninja | 2nd Jun 17, 12:39pm 1496363962

Demonstrates it all so simply RickStrauss but sadly actual facts just can't get in the way of belief, denial and the obstinate much of the time.

by Noncents | 2nd Jun 17, 1:35pm 1496367312

"Actual" facts. We don't have actual facts - unless you know of some scientist that went back in time with a thermometer.

What we do have is hypothesis, estimates, and calculations based on limited information.

Not saying they are wrong (or right) but lets not claim accuracy where it cannot exist.

by bw | 2nd Jun 17, 9:56am 1496354190

The real problem is - Donald Trump isn't a politician!
That's why he's being attacked left, right ( his own party) and centre. "Real" politicians are apoplectic that DT might just show them up for what they have become - worthless to the needs and aspirations of the majority of their people- and as such, aren't needed. Unemployment for politicians beckons, if he prevails.....

by dollar_bill | 2nd Jun 17, 1:17pm 1496366272

None of them are politicians - they're cabals and mafia - they're only in it to privatise the gains and socialize the loses - all of them. Only a few actually give a toss about US citizens apart from where their vote lies.

The difference with Trump is he doesn't hide behind political non-speak, jargon and obfuscation to keep peopleon side . He is so narcissistic, he's the honest "Don" and believes people will like him for it. Obviously their are many Merkins' who do.

I'm sure if he said " I'm going to take all of your money, give you some magic beans and we'll all get wealthy together. It will be fabulous." people would still vote for him.

by Boatman | 2nd Jun 17, 9:30am 1496352640

I am with Donald Trump on this issue .

I regard myself as reasonably well read , and have seen no conclusive evidence of long term global warming that could not be attributed to anything other than long term cyclical changes .

I do concede that we are consuming the planet to death through the use of coal and oil , but there is evidence that this is changing through modern technology

America has stringent environmental laws , you cant pollute without consequence , and the whole thing needs to be balanced with America's ability to retain some of its manufacturing capacity .

China is simply being opportunist , I have seen the pollution in China ........... its horrific , and have never seen anything like it in my trips to the USA

This nonsense of Carbon Taxes is also a load of BS , and is just another cost to be borne ultimately by the end user , in other words you and me , and its annoying because my personal carbon footprint is extremely low .

by rastus1 | 2nd Jun 17, 10:43am 1496357006

You mean you do not want to see the evidence. The arrogance of thinking that you know more than the worlds best brains on this issue is extroadinary. Trump is on his own, many States in the US will follow Paris type principles.

by Independent_Observer | 2nd Jun 17, 11:09am 1496358590

Rastus - This seems to be a new rule for the modern leader. If I acknowledge a problem, I might have to take responsibility for it. Therefore I will ignore as many problems as possible. Smile and wave...

The challenge is, is that we can only do that for so long before many of these problems catch us out. You can almost feel the pressure building and see it in the faces of people...

by Independent_Observer | 2nd Jun 17, 11:23am 1496359408

I reckon Boatman used to read books in shorts and a t-shirt, but for some reason now finds it more comfortable to read in his underwear only during the summer months. But still during his years of intensive research and reading, he can't find any evidence that global warming is in fact real.

by RickStrauss | 2nd Jun 17, 11:26am 1496359589

Yeah, it's getting to the point where it's just...odd to claim to be well-educated on an issue while also maintaining climate change isn't real and anthropogenic.

Many of the younger generation who actually do look into the issue simply dispair at the antics of the oldies.

by Ralph | 2nd Jun 17, 12:57pm 1496365050

Yes, who do they think they are? Questioning everything, exploring alternate explanations and theories, pushing research toward unordained conclusions - it's just so unscientific.

Not to worry, I feel the continuing and concerted campaign of personal denigration will work in the end so keep up the good work brothers.

#trust_the_priesthood
#humiliate_free_thinking

by RickStrauss | 2nd Jun 17, 1:59pm 1496368793

I absolutely understand.

Flat-earthers say the same things. They're the ones questioning, being skeptics etc. They're the ones not falling for Big Science. They're the ones accusing round-earthers of being "sheeple" and trusting the priesthood.

The strongest parallel for climate change denial is basically anti-vaxxers. Similar attitude to the scientific consensus around the effects of medicine as to the scientific consensus on anthropogenic climate change.

by Ralph | 2nd Jun 17, 2:42pm 1496371362

#questionnothing

by RickStrauss | 3rd Jun 17, 12:15pm 1496448947

So it seems, yeah. Unfortunately. Just keep pushing hashtags.

Myself, I was once your typical right-leaning fellow who - as per the demographic - thought climate change was rubbish. But then I started reading up on it. Changing your mind on such a major issue is not a fast process...and I should perhaps be more understanding of people where I once was.

by KH | 3rd Jun 17, 8:30pm 1496478637

Sorry Rastus. Lets say you are right about climate / warming et al. Still does not make tbe Paris agreement of any use whatsoever in dealing with it.

by KH | 3rd Jun 17, 8:31pm 1496478680

Sorry Rastus. Lets say you are right about climate / warming et al. Still does not make tbe Paris agreement of any use whatsoever in dealing with it.

by ham n eggs | 2nd Jun 17, 10:53am 1496357620

When US Oil production peaked early 70s, Nixon did four things more or less simultaneously
- introduced EPA .. new envt laws for local manufacturing
- open dialogue with china to kickstart manufacturing there
- abandoned Gold standard so that US could print its way to nirvana
- convinced the Saudis to create petro dollar so that US$ was king....
Result; clean america, polluted China.

As for evidence modern tech is reducing Oil & coal dependence ... where is it?
https://climateequilibrium.files.wordpress.com/2016/02/world-energy-con…

by two otherguys | 2nd Jun 17, 11:23am 1496359397

Another Boatie zinger - go and read the article linked to at the top of the page - the accord is called "Paris Climate Accord" and within refers to "climate change" not global warming - there is a difference

by SimonP | 2nd Jun 17, 8:53pm 1496393622

You may be well read, but you are clearly not reading relevant peer-reviewed scientific literature.

by Advisor | 2nd Jun 17, 9:54am 1496354077

I am waiting for the NZD / AUD to hit over 0.72 / 0.76 in the short run, so that I can get a good deal on putting my savings into a stash overseas.
Treasury predicts unemployment at 4.3% and economic growth at over 3%. Our country runs on foreign investments. Since China is locked up and we have warning bells going off for an inevitable crash, those estimates seem as ridiculous as Steven Joyce claim that the Nats have always run an "investment-friendly" government.

by bw | 2nd Jun 17, 10:04am 1496354670

by JetLiner | 2nd Jun 17, 10:11am 1496355080

Ex-RBA Governor Stevens makes comments on housing investment policy in Australia, generally applicable here too (http://www.afr.com/real-estate/exrba-boss-glenn-stevens-takes-a-shot-at…):

He said Australia's rental stock was in the hands of individuals rather than corporate investors at least in part because of negative gearing and capital gains tax concessions.

"Individuals are prepared to accept very low rental yields because of the tax concessions. Institutional investors are unlikely to find those yields attractive. It would be a bad mistake to offer them a separate round of tax concessions or subsidies in order to secure their involvement. It would be better to lessen the generosity of the concessions to individuals."

[...]

Mr Stevens also expressed concerns about state government subsidies to investors. He called for research on how many home owners grants go to those buying investment properties and questioned why NSW wanted to subsidise that investment strategy.

I think I can answer that last part: because if the ponzi stops, then the pain starts.

by head_down_bum_up | 2nd Jun 17, 10:19am 1496355567

It's a tough choice.
Should I believe scientists the world over who are able to explain and provide evidence of global warming and mankind's contribution to a problem that seems to be getting worse.

Or should I believe Donald Trump and commentators on interest that global warming is all BS because...well I'm not sure why.

by gingerninja | 2nd Jun 17, 10:28am 1496356092

And let's not forget, that in the Trump camp of understanding the world, are also the peeps who believe the planet is only 6000 years old and the increasing numbers of flat-earthists. What a thoroughly cutting edge group of informed free thinkers they really are ;-)

by ham n eggs | 2nd Jun 17, 11:26am 1496359619

Im wondering what alternative are you suggesting Trump sign up to? Meaningless commitments are still meaningless.
Because if you want to start an actual GREEN movement (as oppose to our current Green party thinking which boils down to all becoming gaming programmers powered by solar panels) you need to campaign on a shrinking economy . ie ever lower energy burn ... which means
- increasing layoffs, redundancies, unemployment
- lower living standards for all
- higher costs
- supply chain issues
- food and water issues - particularly in high population areas
- eventually electrical grid problems

And capitalism or a debt based economy doesn't do shrinking - that's the other kicker.

by head_down_bum_up | 2nd Jun 17, 11:34am 1496360084

I don't understand.
Why do you need to shrink the economy?

Do you not think that, for example, moving to different energy sources and away from traditional ones (e.g. coal) would provide new jobs? Would coal jobs all vanish but nothing replace them that is based around the alternative?

by Advisor | 2nd Jun 17, 11:45am 1496360712

The issue with moving towards more intensive technology is the lack of skilled workforce. Having worked in multiple developed markets, the problem is not lack of training but a sheer lack of will to work harder towards a tougher tertiary degree.
We have a dis balanced skill market in the West, pushing up costs for running unconventional industries.
Also, conventional industries like coal-fired power plants provide more unskilled jobs than a wind farm does, which means the lower sections of the society fail to derive income benefits from these industries.

by head_down_bum_up | 2nd Jun 17, 12:29pm 1496363357

So because coal jobs have existed they should always exist because those people are too dumb to do anything else? Hasn't coal been in steady decline for a long time.

Tin mines used to be all the rage in the UK. Employed huge swathes of people. They don't exist anymore.

I'm struggling to understand if the issues being raised are that you don't believe in global warming, you don't agree with how it should be fixed or you think we can't/shouldn't move away from traditional energy means for some reason?

by ham n eggs | 2nd Jun 17, 12:51pm 1496364660

what Advisors getting at is that you are adding more complexity to the system ... which leads to a bigger wage inequality between the skilled & unskilled workers. The lower levels of workers slowly fall off being able to afford the output of the "new" economy.

by ham n eggs | 2nd Jun 17, 12:04pm 1496361856

Underneath all the debt facade played by the money men, the real economy actually trucks along on energy & resources... a dollar is just an energy token (its a call on the energy thats available). If you print loads of dollars (like we have) without increasing the net energy supporting it, you are just devaluing the "energy buying power" of all dollars.
Otherwise we could just "give" everyone a million dollars and solve poverty!

A switch to far lower density energy sources means you have to shrink the (real) pie.. the net energy available is way lower.

by Henry_Tull | 2nd Jun 17, 11:34am 1496360057

mankind's contribution to a problem that seems to be getting worse.

Q: What does the science say is mankinds contribution? How much because of man?

by Ralph | 2nd Jun 17, 11:50am 1496361053

Do not question the priesthood Henry.

by RickStrauss | 2nd Jun 17, 12:17pm 1496362666

RTFM

by Henry_Tull | 2nd Jun 17, 12:50pm 1496364644

4NF

by PocketAces | 2nd Jun 17, 2:17pm 1496369865

It's a no brainer, if you have no brain, you go with the Trumpster

by Groen_mamba | 2nd Jun 17, 11:31am 1496359884

Let's debate this:
http://ossfoundation.us/projects/environment/global-warming/natural-cyc…

by Boatman | 2nd Jun 17, 11:56am 1496361368

Instead of attacking me , maybe you should read what the US is required to do ito the Paris Accord and then compare what China and India are expected to do .

Everyone is overlooking the real reasons for Trump's withdrawal , the US is expected to embark on radical changes with immediate effect , changes that will cost American jobs and cost the American taxpayer .

In terms of the Paris accord , China does not have to even start its work until 2030 , in other words it does NOTHING about its environment until 2030 .

India on the other hand can actually INCREASE its carbon emmissions for the next 2 decades before its expected to comply

by ham n eggs | 2nd Jun 17, 12:08pm 1496362108

yes - its the argument that its unfair not to give those countries (pollution) time to become developed ... the US did its pollution way back ...
Of course the planet doesn't care where the stuff comes from

by Zachary Smith | 2nd Jun 17, 4:27pm 1496377650

Trump is doing absolutely the right thing in withdrawing from the Paris Climate Agreement. These agreements are designed to deindustrialize and cripple the Western economies.

by kiwichas | 3rd Jun 17, 1:06pm 1496451976

Almost the whole world,including the US/West, except Syria/Nicaragua are trying to wreck themselves??

by profile | 3rd Jun 17, 2:15pm 1496456150

No the pollies are just virtue signalling to look caring to their voters. They know it is non binding and non enforcable so there is no cost to signing. Thus the runaway global warming scare is tailor made for politicians and hangers on. They rely on the voters not doing their homework.

by Yankiwi | 3rd Jun 17, 2:20pm 1496456405

Agreed.

Rather than reading the media and various pundits views regarding the Paris Agreement, I decided to read through the actual agreement, and then went forward and read through a few of the various countries targets, their declared NDC (Nationally Determined Contributions). First of all, the basic agreement is a version of liars poker, without any enforcement capability (Nicaraguas principal reason for its principled withdrawal from the agreement). Instead of withdrawing from the PA, Trump could have instead followed the path of many countries via having a nice target without making any serious strides towards meeting these targets other than via increasing efficiency of energy utilization, which happens naturally as energy costs increase...

Each country puts forward its own goals definitions. I was quite amused at Chinas goals, which put forward a carbon per GDP value for initial targets, of which it is already close to meeting at present. Note the per GDP element, which has been increasing at a 7 to 10% rate in the last decade. China plans to reach peak absolute carbon emissions around 2030 before any plans to decrease carbon emissions. The target in 2030 for China is to have only 80% of primary energy consumption to be from fossil fuels. Ummm... China is the largest source of carbon on the planet at present...

I do like the goals set forward in the US NDC, as well as the NZ NDC. The longer term goals in the US NDC may be a bit on the challenging side, but the agreement states that one should be making challenging goals.

Sadly, in my opinion the Paris Agreement is kabuki theatre, and will have little affect on carbon emissions on this planet, whether or not US is a signatory to the agreement.

Read for yourself: http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9485.php
and for the various countries NDCs: http://www4.unfccc.int/ndcregistry/Pages/All.aspx

by profile | 3rd Jun 17, 2:43pm 1496457828

Good stuff. Why oh why do we never see any simple analysis in the MSM. Listening to National Radio "experts" yesterday they came across as woefully ignorant.

by Yankiwi | 3rd Jun 17, 3:02pm 1496458946

The concept of objective journalism in the news media is damned near extinct as a profession (present website excluded... :) ). It is fashionable to hate Trump, which I very much understand, and have zero issues with as I consider him to be a buffoon. What I do not like is the media blitz of subjective attack instead of objective reporting. At this point, I disbelieve virtually anything that I see in the media without independent corroboration. My distrust of the media has increased remarkably in the last year because of the clear subjective treatment of all things Trumpian, despite my strong dislike of Trump.

The lack of clothes on the Paris Agreement emperor should have been exposed a couple of years ago. This lack of enforcement or for that matter external tracking isn't anything difficult to discover. Why the utter uselessness of the agreement has not been a serious topic of discussion amongst the people that believe in climate change mystifies me. The complete Paris Agreement is a document of only 16 pages, it isn't that hard to read through and comprehend.

by Kate | 3rd Jun 17, 5:17pm 1496467065

Couldn't agree more - the Paris Agreement is a ruse of a very cynical sort. An attempt to "manufacture consent" from the masses who think something needs to be done. And a bit of the legacy of the way Obama tried to leave a legacy - whilst really doing nothing to improve the lot of the constituency that is the Democrats in the US.

It's even more of a deception from those countries who signed up to Kyoto - and then quit after round one because they realised you can't meet targets whist trying to grow you econmy and hence your ecological footprint. (NZ and Canada come to mind).

Trump is an egotistical idiot, but at least he keeps his promises (objectionable as they might be)!!!!!!

by Kate | 3rd Jun 17, 5:21pm 1496467262

PS, Question: " Why the utter uselessness of the agreement has not been a serious topic of discussion amongst the people that believe in climate change mystifies me."

My answer: Because all those bureaucrats and do-gooders who spent a fortune in energy attending all those meetings and claiming to be the champions of 'saving the world' - cannot be honest about what they did not achieve while adding to the carbon account.

by Halfway To Paradise | 2nd Jun 17, 8:08pm 1496390911

At the end of the day all this climate change talk is about fleecing the public, we were far better off before taxes on carbon footprint etc. It a scam on the masses.

by Andrewj | 2nd Jun 17, 8:52pm 1496393528

http://market-ticker.org/

by Yankiwi | 3rd Jun 17, 3:53pm 1496462016

Karl has some rather strong opinions... I read him because he makes me think even if I may disagree with his conclusions at times (sometimes strongly). He is most definitely a perma-bear, so be cautious about his economic analysis.

At least he has made his screeds a bit more "family friendly" now. A decade ago about every fourth word was unprintable in polite society... although I did learn some rather amusing phrases. :)

by Boatman | 2nd Jun 17, 10:25pm 1496399152

Climate change alarmism is an extremely lucrative industry. All in all, there have been over $32.5 billion of federal government grants that have funded climate change research from 1989-2009, far more than any research funded by the oil industry. National Review reports: