Winston Peters' NZ First set to enlighten New Zealanders on the make-up of the new government on Thursday afternoon

In a very brief statement issued on Wednesday evening, Winston Peters' NZ First says we can expect to find out who the Government will be on Thursday afternoon.

Here's the NZ First statement.

New Zealand First will be in a position tomorrow afternoon to make an announcement on the result of negotiations following the 2017 General Election.

New Zealand First Leader Rt Hon Winston Peters said he had spoken to the leaders of the National Party and the Labour Party today and, amongst other matters, advised them of that.

New Zealand First's caucus spent Wednesday talking in Bowen House, after meeting with their board over Monday and Tuesday.

Just before 5pm Wednesday, MP Fletcher Tabuteau left the building, telling Newshub that talks were now “at a stage now where the caucus is no longer needed”.

Peters did not front to media after sending out the statement. MPs Shane Jones and Ron Mark declined to comment as they passed media in Bowen House Wednesday evening.

National Party leader Bill English later sent out a statement saying he would update his MPs on the coalition talks Thursday morning:

“National is holding a caucus meeting tomorrow at 11am in Wellington to provide MPs with an update on coalition talks. A separate teleconference will then take place with the National Party board. We stress that we have had no indication of what decision New Zealand First will make. We have no further comment at this stage.”

Meanwhile, a Labour party spokesman said Labour's leadership team would hold a teleconference with the party's caucus at 11am to provide them with an update, although a NZF decision isn't expected to be known by then.

The Green Party was reported to not be holding its delegates' conference call on Wednesday night - Thursday will also be the day for them. See more on that here.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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78 Comments

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Fingers and toes crossed for Labour/Greens to take the prize.

However it may well be the Curate's Egg

Curate's egg preferable to a poisoned chalice.

Ex expat - as a National Party supporter, and one that has given this a great deal of thought as I’d hope most have, I’m hoping and thinking youre right. For National’s medium to long-term prospects winning now would indeed be losing. If he goes with National it will feel like a very hollow “win”. Time for LGNZF to have a go, and best wishes to them as no one should want a Govt to fail. But if Jacinda is unable to convert some of her a”vision” because of the realities of basic economics, LGNZF will have the strongest and most buoyant opposition seen in decades to make their life very difficult and only needing to pick up 3-4% over that 3 yr term to consign Labour back into opposition for a long time, and possibly one of either the Greens or NZF out of parliament.

Another 9 years of National is a scary thought....

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Yeah...all this talk of National "winning" in the long term. I really would prefer New Zealand to win in the long term.

i don’t see the two as mutually exclusive. Others here evidently do.

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Well, National's low skilled, high immigration sell-houses-to-each-other policies and NZ's better future sure are mutually exclusive.

Others probably think the two are mutually exclusive because they feel that National is making NZers worse off instead of better.

I don't necessarily. I just think their current direction has been creating and exacerbating issues they promised to deal with, and these are creating intergenerational issues for NZ.

Grant A - my thoughts exactly. National have been in power for so long that every argument against the left is getting a bit too historic. We need fresh examples to remind the voters what a coalition of the clueless does to a country. In some ways this is like the movie Bleu where Juliette Binoche beds Benoît Régent then says goodbye. It's her way of breaking the idealistic view he had of her. When the electorate works out that these lot couldn't build much more than a cubby house let alone provide houses for all (election ad promise) it will all fall apart. Unfortunately it will likely require a recession and some job losses etc. All the things we older voters remember.

I find it a bit odd that you're criticizing Labour for not being fully able to solve a problem that your National caused in the first place. Remember their promise of affordable housing to fix Labour's apparent imcompetence about doing nothing to reduce house price inflation? Then National lied, denied and obfuscated for 9 years, fueled housing speculation and didn't introduce a capital gains tax/land tax or ban foreign buyers.

As for a recession, hopefully that will bring a bit of awareness and normalcy to NZ. When house prices fall and people lose their houses you can thank National for their property spruiking and pro-nonproductive investment.

The point is Wildcard, it ain't anymore easily fixed here than it is in many other parts of the globe, starting with our nearest neighbours - Labour says they will, no buts (remember, they will do everything better and fairer"), so its going to be interesting watching for the results of Labour's 'vision' being put in place.

Have we forgotten NZ's history suggests we've had a housing issue before and we've had to have willingness to attack the issue to achieve affordability. It's the unwillingness on National's part to admit there's an issue that's the biggest stumbling block at the moment.

There will be no miracles, but there needs to be a start made. There have been issues created that will take a long time to address.

Unfortunately, I'd certainly not be surprised to see National's economic ponzi falter soon. As recent articles have suggested, things are looking a bit dodgy for the incoming government, whoever it will be. I'm in two minds. I really don't know who I'd rather see Winston go with.

Zach see Rick gets lots of likes
He’s got a heart for people not merely for RE spruiking

I'll agree, it's not an easy fix, but National made it far worse than it was and far worse than it should be due to their Boomer and foreign buyer-centric shortsightedness and complete lack of trying to raise productivity or GDP per capita or wages.

Have you had a read about the global productivity problem the reasons for which are strongly debated globally- i.e. its not a NZ-National problem only, or is it a case that you think Labour has the magic solution to it?. You also will appreciate that in your criticism of National's efforts in regards to GDP per capital, most OECD countries had zero GDP full stop for a number of yrs... but to quote Jacinda, Labour will have done "better and fairer" - we're going to find out soon

"its not a NZ-National problem only" Its a neoliberalism problem and National have not accepted the fact that it does not work except for an ever smaller percentage of elite society.

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You hit the nail on the head wildcard ... an economy driven by high immigration and selling houses to each other and foreigners is not sustainable. 5 years productivity recession and National running out of ideas....

Lets not forget Sir Keys speech in 2007 which backs up your points perfectly https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cWPgoAI1cLE

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Yes National have ripped the fabric of NZ society to pieces. Poverty, inequality, free unbiased media, even hope for the future. Virtually everything seriously deteriorated in their reign. They’ve financially eviscerated generation rent so that the baby boomes could cash in to wealthy foreigners, mainly Chinese. Now we’re probably entering a recession. I guess you think it would be nice if we could blame all that on the next government.

No fat pat, there's no sign of a recession accordingly to every leading indicators you can look at, and according to economists - and certainly no sign of a GFC, the second biggest recession to hit the globe in 80 yrs that national had to manage. Yes I appreciate that that last labour Govt did manage to get us into a near recession in the year before the GFC when the rest of the globe was still ticking along, but they'll be starting from scratch if they manage it again this time.

The real leading indicators would be the rate of change of the rate of change of the private debt levels with respect to time. Or changing immigration numbers. It doesnt look good to me. A big indicator would be the total dollar influx of foreign capital into all domestic sectors. The latter is not recorded but we all know what's happened with Chinese foreign investors.

All of those are not signs of a recession in the next 3yrs - private debt to GDP is a massive potential problem for sometime, but like Govt debt, its a slow burn that sometimes takes decades to really impact (having said it, it has been a problem for a decade and a half to date - it went up through 100% to 160% in Labour's last term by 2007, and currently sits at about 170%).

And yes I agree, poor economic timing of decreases in immigration, and restriction of foreign investment could very likely bring on that recession, but then that would be self inflicted by the administration at the time and warrant the criticism, and probably non-election next time.

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Grant A, there would never be a good time to pull back the mistakes of national. It just needs to be done and the sooner the better. You can’t just leave mistakes going on . The good thing is overseas investors have mostly been stopped anyway, just seal that . And everyone’s on board that immigration numbers are to high and that would be taken down slowly . You can’t really blame a next government for trying to fix a problem from the last and expected them to carry it on. If a recession was coming it would surely come anyway

" but like Govt debt, its a slow burn that sometimes takes decades to really impact" Steve Keen disagrees with you! Debt deleveraging apparently has an immediate effect on the economy reducing aggregate demand. Up until recently it's been overshadowed of by trillions of dollars leaking out of china.

Just about any economist disagrees with that statement.
Although it may make for a good throwaway comment, like we see here, it doesn't make for good economics.

Fat pat - I'm not suggesting anything different - there was an excellent book released maybe 2008/09 "This time is different" that showed that Govt debt to GDP above 90% starts to seriously impair the growth of the country. The US at over 100-%, and most European countries between 80 - 150% will suffer from that for a long time - its not an issue for NZ at 24% and falling, but although I haven't seen the same research on private debt, I'm sure there is a level that NZ's clearly exceeded where it impacts private consumption and GDP. Households need to get their debt levels down over time.

Sounds like a rant to me
National = Self interest
Bill English = Takes unneeded housing allowance then gets caught
Maurice Williamson = no need to mention
By the way the DOW hitting historic highs is precisely the high that comes before the crash
The markets have already factored in tax cuts that will never happen as stated
GFC2 could be just a Nth Korea away

I have a feeling we are going to be hit by a relatively large global recession in the net 3 years, who ever is in government will have huge challenges. I cant see anyone being re-elected in 3 years time

Have you had that same feeling for the last 9 years?

Hey JimboJones
It doesn’t matter if you were invested in the market the entire past 9 years
It’s are you in the market when it crashes
Any 9 year profits quickly evaporate along with
Capital if you’re in and the crash hits you
Happy days

If it isn’t Labour/Greens/NZ1st I fear for NZ youth
People like Zachs young daughter who tried multiple times just to get a part time job at McDonalds but was rejected.
Immigration at massive levels compared to population takes jobs from NZs youth
Then when they wish to buy a home they are prevented again by the housing speculation of foreigners using NZ like a land bank
NZs beauty doesn’t cut it with its youth suicide rate
Government policy needs to change from the current National paradigm
Sorry for typing so many words I know many here read very slowly
Want to fix NZ
Change the fake wealth

Post deleted by moderator? If so, good work. His/her posts often remind me of 'conversations' at the RSA just before closing time.

Ex Expat, We’re still hoping a good news. Even though it is not the one we want, I think you and us will still be fine.

Good news is a Labour/Green/NZF coalition. Play the long game. I'd like Bill to carry on, because I believe his voter mandate was strong. Smith has to go, as does Collins. Bring Nikki Kaye through to expose slippery cinders. Provoke Kelvin because he can't control himself, then set the dogs on Winston. He revels as an opposition politician, but he's not a statesman, so will slip up. It's going to be fun. Stick with the program. It will end well.

I think so, in the long term it’s better for National Party to be opposition this term, but just really hope Bill English can become an elected PM this time, he is a very experienced leader. Maybe it’s last chance for him. For Jacinda Ardern, she is young and has lots of opportunities in the future.

Provoke Kelvin because he can't control himself, then set the dogs on Winston. He revels as an opposition politician, but he's not a statesman, so will slip up.

Peters' relationship with Condaleezza Rice, during his stint as Minister of Foreign Affairs, brought about a much desired rapprochement with the USA, post the nuclear stand off.

I had peripheral dealings with him in the Pacific during that time. He was old school and not in a good way.

It is the policies I am more interested in, will those be announced tomorrow?

Whatevs. Kind of lost interest now.

You probably aren't alone, it is a bit of a woop-di-sh%^ moment.

Another day, another session of NZ Politics Theatre of the Absurd.

Just watch those listings go on the market in Auckland and Christchurch if he goes with the Left. I see Auckland has gone over 10,000 on Trade Me today. Interesting times.

Gordon so you think with labour many think house prices will come down more. I think you are right but with national the same thing would happen in the end just slower, there’s been many cycles and I can’t remember any where a government has been able to stop a downturn after it’s started. National couldn’t do much in 2008 and interest rates went from 10% to 4.19%. Lucky the RBNZ did it’s job pre 2008

people forget labour lead the country into a recession before the GFC.. they did nothing to stop the excesses of the 2006 2007 financial markets and took no notice of the warming red flags in the markets. Labour was asleep at the wheel well before the GFC and our finance industry was running riot with not controls in place to regulate the industry all under a labour government that was simply throwing money at many areas without proper auditing, once scandal after another... the last labour government were as guilt as this one in many areas of the economy. Yes thank goodness for the RBNZ....

people forget labour lead the country into a recession before the GFC.. they did nothing to stop the excesses of the 2006 2007 financial markets and took no notice of the warming red flags in the markets.

Nothing recessionary about a rising OCR right up to the GFC, which never visited NZ according to public statements made by an ex-RBNZ economics official, now blogger.

yes third term governments are bad and will do what it takes to stay in power before what is good and right for the country, fourth term governments are worse.
normally first and second term governments (apart from the last one) are where major policy changes are made

Classic - a right-leaning voter attacking a left-leaning government for too little regulation. Whatever will we see next? Note National's history on slowness vs. other countries to bring in regulation of the financial sector this time around, in the form of AML.

A drought over the 2007/08 summer led to lower production of dairy products in the first half of 2008. Domestic activity slowed sharply over 2008 as high fuel and food prices dampened domestic consumption while high interest rates and falling house prices drove a rapid decline in residential investment.

The outlook for the New Zealand economy deteriorated sharply following the intensification of the global financial crisis in September 2008.

Source: The NZ Treasury

In fairness, too, Labour greatly reduced NZ's debt and saved for the future during the good times.

yes i agree with you Rick, national also guilty of a lack of regulation.. who said im a right win voter? i did not vote Act nor any other right win party.. Note over the years ive voted all for major parties including the greens. In other words it matter little which party is in power as new zealand is at the whim of global markets..

Fair enough. Mea culpa.

you might well blame the diary exports for 2008 but the labour government had done nothing to reform the productivity of the nation and labour also did nothing to stop the increase in debt so i do not believe low dairy export returns were the primary reason for recession sorry, its far more complex than that. In fact i publish a paper on the coming recession much to the surprise of my readers. The debt factor and low productivity of the whole country simple ment there was no room to suffer and down turn in the economy. Labour simply had left no room for any averaging down of equity performance from the economy....Helen and Cullen had never run a public company or business and had NO ><>< ing clue!!!

I thought we imported most of our diaries?

yes DIARY - terrible but i never check the junk i type ere...

National actually ran on the need to address that productivity issue and the need to reform to increase productivity and close the gap with Australia. That's why I voted against Labour and for National at the time. I thought and still think it's an important issue. Hence my beef with their failure to do what they promised and instead exacerbate the existing issues - debt, low productivity, structural incentive to invest in housing instead of business.

I'd also note that National have not really changed the structural spending, suggesting they deep down thought either it was too hard or they believed it was the right spending. Sure, they delayed spending as a form of reducing it - but they've upped things like Working For Families etc. that I find fundamentally wrong in that it's a redistributionist subsidising of wages to enable a low wage economy.

One thing in retrospect Cullen did well with was setting up the Cullen fund to prefund the coming pension bubble. National have done wrong in taxing this, whereas the defunding of it during the crisis made some sense.

i voted for john keys to reform the country and what did i get? a conservative statesman! Also i would liked to have major infrastructure spending ... its coming slowly.. national could have overhauled the tax system and im not talking taxing the family home... then there is local body ... new zealanders are heavily taxed as individuals and please company tax rates are far to high if you want to attract business here... we are simply caught in a catch 22... labour wont cure that but we might get some social spending for sick people who cant work... and if you know some people who are in the terrible situation you will know what i mean..as for cullen and his capital gains tax overseas shares oh dear.. cullen was a very impractical man who got the fund idea right but not its functions...also the trust tax rates are also just stupid .... believe me the modernization of the tax computing model is long overdue ... the potential for bugs in the new tax project could be as terrifying as the potential for earth quakes of the east coast

accountingsoftw,

What you say about the finance industry is correct. I camr live here in 2003,having spent my working life in the financial world in the UK. In 2004,Labour formed a commission to take submissions on the regulation of financial advisers and I duly submitted one and attended several public meetings.
I very quickly realised that this was all for show and that the commission's findings would be shelved. Thus, a golden opportunity to rein in the finance industry was missed.I was and remain a stockmarket investor,but just for interest,asked a prominent local adviser for advice,which,as you will probably have guessed, was to spread my capital for a number of finance companies,giving me security,diversification and a high yield!! he became quite abusive when I pointed out the flaws in his case.

Labour and greens or national taken down a peg or 1000, can’t really see the difference

Mr Peters, delay no more!!

the governor general should control this process ... its a joke

Agreed...

Quick update in there - English and Ardern to both update their MPs at 11am tomorrow on progress...

Fact; Bill English will be meeting more MP's than Jacinda Ardern ;)

Fact ; Jacinda doesn’t need to meet any more than bill

all the more to roll him if a deal does not get done, not much fun for a MP to sit in opposition

As a centre-right voter , I'd rather that the Gnats formed a coalition with the Greens , that with Winnie ... if they are to stay in power ...

... NZF's policies have more in common with Labour ... there's a more natural fit there ... than with Wild Bill and his Gnatty ensemble ...

Regardless , I don't feel that either Labour or the Gnats will get stuck into the problems bedeviling our society ... not until a market crash ... or a popping of the housing bubble ...another Al Jazeera doco highlighting the environment damage wrought by our dirty dairying .... ... a crisis of some sort ... before they wake up to the fact that something is just not right ...

Gummy, this idea of a National-Greens coalition seems like wishful thinking by urban Nats to me. Can you really picture National's Federated Farmers wing and the Greens' environmental policies together?

You have to ask yourself ... did your centre-right mate Wild Bill at any time pick up the phone and ring

or

did he do what fair damsels of yesteryear did ... sit at home and wait for the phone to ring ... to ring

something like this
Bill, james lets talk, we must have someway we can form a partnership whats one big thing we can go with
James, lets charge for water use and use the money to clean up rivers
beep beep beep beep
James, bill you there

But, but, but, I thought the Greens were supposed to be the fanatical Reds who want us to return to the Stone Age, or should that be the Grey Concrete Age of Soviet era misery. You mean they are actually perfectly reasonable people after all? Not gloomy doomsters intent on spreading their personal belief in Doom, Doom, Doom to all who will listen? Well, well, who would have thought?

Well noticed Roger. It's a good exposé of the people participating in the proliferation of propaganda.

I just want it to be over so Interest.co.nz can go back to publishing insightful articles about finance and property from around the world. That's the reason I follow this site but lately its becoming rather tedious and just another political blog.

Bring back Mr Money Moustache for example.

agreed but if you want to attack people with financial interests this is the place to do it. Thats is why they are here attacking the right...

Wrestling a pig in mud and all that. I come here because I enjoy the interaction. I don’t know any lefties in real life, except my Green-voting brother and I figure they have more to say than “would you like fries with that” so I come here to hear it. Great confirmation bias with my morning coffee. As you were.

It seems probable that sites such as this (probably particularly so for this one) attract persons somewhat above the intellectual average. Thus it is very revealing to me that there is a strong bias herein against those that support elite selfish policies so typical of the National party. There is hope for our future.

I can't see a new government being formed between 2 parties that had no coalition talks whatsoever

NZF are just treating the Greens like Labour's lapdog, which is in effect what they are at this point. When doing a deal with someone, you don't negotiate with their pet too. I say this as someone who voted for the Greens. If Labour/Greens had got over 50% then the Greens would have been able to negotiate.

Say what you will but if Winston can't talk to Shaw now, how can you expect them to sit together in parliament for 3 years.
Also, I feel bad for the Greens who have been completely shut out of any coalition talks. The Greens have actually, rightly in my opinion, refused to sign a coalition agreement with Labour (apart from the MOU) until after NZF have decided which way they want to go. So IF Winston goes left, a new government is not yet guaranteed as the Greens may want to include some of their own policies in exchange for their support.

Yvil - what we can't forget is what the Greens stated key policy is, it's "To change the Govt" - no not environmental or social policies that they would have been able to documented and guaranteed in a National- Green coalition, but rather "To change the Govt". Why would they not sign whatever agreement was presented to them when it guarantees them their key policy requirement which is "To change the Govt" ?

When doing a deal, you have to get both partners' (wife & husband for example) agreement. A bit odd you refer to the Greens as Labour's lapdog when you voted for them