Trump makes impulsive u-turn on TPP; Wall Street up strongly; WTO fears US-China disputes; IMF warns on B&R debt; FBU in play; UST 10yr at 2.83%; oil up and gold down; NZ$1 = 73.8 USc; TWI-5 = 75

Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news there is a surprise reversal of the American position on multilateral trade agreements.

It is being reported that President Trump has instructed officials to "re-join" the CPTPP - "on our terms, of course". This follows pleadings from US farm state congressmen over their exposure to China's retaliatory tariffs. Now it will get interesting for the US as it seems doubtful that CPTPP signatories will want to be drawn in to capricious American trade bullying led by a President who makes policy on impulse. But Japan and Australia may sense an opportunity, as well as Mexico and Canada who are already in their own NAFTA renegotiation as a result of an earlier capricious Trump impulse. Trump may be about to learn how to eat humble pie.

Conflict fears over Syria appear to be easing with both the US and Russia toning down their rhetoric.

Wall Street is up strongly today, with all major indexes posting +1% gains late in today's trading session.

The WTO said world trade in goods would grow +4.4% in 2018 and above the post-GFC average of +3%. But they are warning this global recovery might falter as a result of tit-for-tat restrictive trade measures, mainly between the US and China.

And the IMF is warning of the dangers to emerging countries signing up to massive increases in debt as a result being part of China's Belt and Road initiative. They see serious balance of payments risks seen for recipients of this infrastructure finance.

The most ironic trade news item of the day (and delivered with a straight face) is a call by Chinese officials for foreign countries to work to protect the intellectual property rights of Chinese companies.

Back in the US, the Federal Reserve is proposing cuts to capital requirements for big banks. These tweaks to the controversial leverage ratio will benefit custody banks in particular.

In Australia, in the first 3 months of 2018, more than half of all appointments to boards of Australian ASX200 companies were women, the first time this has happened. In 2017 it was 36%.

And in Perth, there are reports that Wesfarmers, who are selling out of supermarket chain Coles, is eyeing a takeover of Fletcher Building while it is in a weak position.

The UST 10yr yield is back up today, now at 2.83%, up +4 bps. The Chinese 10yr is at 3.74% (down -1 bps) and the New Zealand 10yr is at 2.81% (unchanged).

Gold is down -US$14 to US$1,336/oz.

Oil prices are holding yesterday's strong gains with the US benchmark now just over US$67/bbl and the Brent benchmark just over US$72/bbl. China is raising retail petrol prices again, their fourth rise so far this year.

Our currency is firmer today at 73.8 USc. On the cross rates we are at 95.2 AUc and 59.9 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 just under 75 and its highest of 2018 and its highest since September 2017.

Bitcoin is back in favour and up to US$7,667 which is a rise of +11% from this time yesterday.

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