Here's our summary of key events over the long weekend that affect New Zealand, with news core data is actually more positive than the politics and views of what lies ahead.
Firstly, in the US, nonfarm payrolls rose by +223,000 in May, exceeding estimates handily. The jobless rate fell to 3.8%, the lowest rate in eighteen years. Wages rose +2.7% but their participation rate barely moved at a low 62.7%.
The release of American PMI indexes over the weekend brought mixed results. The closely-followed ISM one was up strongly to 58.7 while the more international Markit one was down slightly to 56.4 for the US in May. Take your pick.
New orders for American-made goods fell more than expected in April, weighed down by falling demand for aircraft and machinery. But other than for aircraft, the numbers actually look ok.
As part of the preparation for the G7 summit in Quebec later this week, the G7 finance chiefs issued a rare rebuke of a member nation, saying American trade actions undermine global economic confidence and threaten the effectiveness of the Western alliance. Is it now the G6, plus a reluctant US?
Canada's growth now exceeds +3% pa, making it the fastest growing G7 country. But the IMF is warning that those trade tensions put it under serious risk.
And the IMF has reviewed Samoa's situation. It likes their progress, but says it is at a high risk of debt stress, and very vulnerable to the witrhdrawal of correspondent banking relationships.
In Australia, CBA has agreed to pay a record fine of AU$700 mln to settle its AUSTRAC case. CBA says it submitted 19 mln reports to AUSTRAC including 44,000 tagged as suspicious during the period of the claim. But they missed 53,000 through a coding error in their ATMs and that included 149 reports that should have been tagged as 'suspicious'. It is these that attracted the AU$700 mln 'resolution'.
In Australia, data out yesterday claims that retail sales grew a bit more strongly than expected. For the year to April they were +2.7% higher than for the year to April 2017. They would have been higher, but were dragged down by declines by department stores.
And Melbourne has replaced Sydney as the worst performing national capital for residential property with prices falling by about -5% in the past three months, according to analysis by investment bank Morgan Stanley. Housing sentiment and expectations about prospects for real estate are plunging to near-record lows with most people nominating bank deposits a preferred option, despite low, single digit savings rates, its research shows.
The UST 10yr yield is rising again, now at 2.94% and up +4 bps on the day. The Chinese 10yr is at 3.67% (up +2 bps) while the New Zealand equivalent is at 2.77% (unchanged).
Gold is little changed overnight and just a touch under US$1,292/oz.
Oil prices have slipped back again by another -US$1/bbl to be just over US$64.50/bb, but the Brent benchmark is now just on US$75.50/bbl. The US$11 discount for US crude is holding (indicating a glut of American oil that is too much for their infrastructure to get to an export port). In China, about 28 airlines have started adding a fuel surcharge to their domestic fares.
The Kiwi dollar will start today more than +½c higher at 70.4 USc on a slipping greenback. On the cross rates we are a little weaker at 92 AUc because the Aussie has gained more, but little changed against the euro at just on 60 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 up to 73.2 which actually is a new six week high.
Bitcoin is now at US$7,480 which is -2.8% lower than this time yesterday.
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