Here's our summary of key events overnight that affect New Zealand, with news the rise of the gig economy might be messing with how we measure our labour markets.
But first, American retail sales for October came in with a strong result, up +5.9% from the same month a year ago and beating estimates, boosted somewhat by storm replacement demand.
In Canada, residential sales levels came in much lower than expected. They were down -3.7% in October compared to the same month a year ago, and house prices eased -1.5% from September although up +2.3% year-on-year.
Meanwhile, the latest (unofficial) indications of their job market showed a surprising fall of -23,000 jobs in October, after a very strong September result. A small gain was expected.
Back in the US for a moment, a part of the puzzle of why their employment rate is so low may have been answered. New official research shows that maybe as many as 3 mln people in the gig economy are not being counted as employed when they clearly are. Numbers at that level will make a huge difference to how we see the the American labour market.
In Beijing their official statistics agency released data on house prices showing broad stability. In this data there is no sign of the tensions and stress reported elsewhere of falling prices and the social anxiety these are apparently causing. Chinese censorship rules are now extending to official economic data reports following "instructions" not to changshuai (bad mouth) the economy.
In the EU, car sales are still falling in October data out overnight. They are down -7.3% on a year-on-year basis, although the fall-off is at a more moderate pace than in we saw in September. But results vary widely by country. Spain (+10.0%) saw the highest growth rates, followed by France (+5.7%) and Germany (+1.4%). By contrast, registrations declined in Italy (-3.2%) and the United Kingdom (-7.2%).
The EU trade surplus came in much lower than expected in September. Although their surplus with the US swelled, their deficit with China is unchanged but still very high (and bigger than the US surplus). In fact, Germany's bedrock economy unexpectedly shrank -0.2% in Q3 2018, according to data published yesterday. It was the first quarterly contraction since 2015, with a drop in exports suggesting the trade war skirmishes are dampening the powerful EU engine.
In the UK, their prime minister was fighting to save her Brexit deal just hours after it was sealed, as a series of ministers resigned amid deepening political turmoil over the terms.
The CEO of Australian insurer IAG has warned a failure to reduce carbon emissions could result in a world that is "pretty much uninsurable".
And the RBA is sweating the fallout from the credit tightening following their Hayne Commission review. They see the resulting pullback pushing house prices down, itself restraining lending even more. "There is a risk that this process overshoots leading to a sharper or more protracted decline in activity than we currently expect," said a senior official yesterday.
The UST 10yr yield are at 3.11%, rise of +2 bps. Their 2-10 curve is still just on +25 bps. The Aussie Govt 10yr is at 2.71%, up +1 bp, the China Govt 10yr is at 3.43% and down -3 bps, while the NZ Govt 10 yr is at 2.78% and that was down -2 bps overnight.
Gold is up +US$10 today at US$1,213/oz.
US oil prices are little-changed today and now still just over US$56.50/bbl. The Brent benchmark is now over US$66.50/bbl. There are reports the Saudis are very unhappy with US exemptions for the continued purchase of Iranian oil and may cut output sharply, this time against US wishes.
The Kiwi dollar will start today firmer yet again and now at 68.2 USc. On the cross rates we are down slightly at 93.9 AUc after breaching 94 yesterday, and at 60.3 euro cents. That puts the TWI-5 up to 72.8 and a new five month high.
Bitcoin has stayed down and is now at US$5,533, another -2% slide overnight. It is now at NZ$8,111 which is its lowest in local currency since October 2017. In the intervening time it rose to NZ$27,664. Triggers for this latest fall are still unclear. This rate is charted in the exchange rate set below.
This chart is animated here.
The easiest place to stay up with event risk today is by following our Economic Calendar here ».
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