Confounding the grumps, it turns out we are a happy, optimistic lot going into the New Year, according to a poll that has been tracking this since 1989

Confounding the grumps, it turns out we are a happy, optimistic lot going into the New Year, according to a poll that has been tracking this since 1989
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Content supplied by Roy Morgan Research

A special Roy Morgan New Zealand survey taken in mid-December shows a majority (51%) of New Zealanders think 2019 will be ‘better’ than 2018. Only 14% say 2019 will be ‘worse’, 27% expect 2019 will be ‘the same’ as 2018 and 8% don’t know.

This year’s results are similar to a year ago when 53% of New Zealanders said 2018 would be ‘better’ than 2018 and New Zealanders are again more optimistic about the year ahead than their Australian counterparts. Just under half of Australians (44%) expect 2019 will be ‘better’ than 2018. See here for more details on the Australian results.

This special Roy Morgan New Zealand web survey was conducted in mid-December with a cross-section of 1,011 New Zealanders aged 18+.

Next Year – Better or Worse in New Zealand?

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand telephone, SMS and web surveys in New Zealand 1989-2018 with an average of 1,000 New Zealanders aged 18+ interviewed each year. Question: “As far as you are concerned, do you think that 2019 will be better, worse, or the same as 2018?” 

Analysis by Age & Gender – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’

Source: Roy Morgan New Zealand web survey conducted in mid-December with a cross-section of 1,011 New Zealanders aged 18+.

Women in New Zealand are more optimistic than men with 54% of women expecting a ‘better’ 2019 than 2018 compared to 49% of men.

Analysing the results by age shows those aged under 50 are all very optimistic about 2019 including 53% of 18-24yr olds, 60% of 25-34yr olds and 53% of 35-49yr olds that expect 2019 to be ‘better’ than 2018 compared to 41% of those aged 50+.

  Total
New Zealand
Gender Age Total
Aust.
Men Women 18-24 25-34 35-49 50+
  % % % % % % % %
Better 51 49 54 53 60 53 41 44
Same 27 28 26 22 25 25 33 32
Worse 14 18 10 7 9 14 22 14
Don’t know 8 5 10 18 6 8 4 10

Analysis by Region – Next Year ‘Better’ or ‘Worse’

Source: This special Roy Morgan New Zealand web survey was conducted in mid-December with a cross-section of 1,011 New Zealanders aged 18+.

Analysing by region shows Auckland is the most confident of New Zealand’s major cities with 55% saying 2019 will be ‘better’ than 2018 compared to 50% in the Canterbury region around Christchurch and 45% in New Zealand’s capital of Wellington.

Nevertheless, New Zealand’s most optimistic region is the South Island outside Canterbury including the cities of Dunedin, Invercargill, Nelson and Queenstown in which 58% of respondents say 2019 will be ‘better’ than 2018.

    Region  
  Total
New Zealand
Auckland Wellington Other
North Island
Canterbury Other
South Island
Total
Aust.
  % % % % % % %
Better 51 55 45 48 50 58 44
Same 27 23 37 27 29 23 32
Worse 14 13 9 15 16 16 14
Don’t know 8 9 9 10 5 3 10

Michele Levine, Chief Executive Officer, Roy Morgan, says:

“A slim majority of New Zealanders (51%) expect 2019 will be ‘better’ than 2018 barely changed from a year ago when 53% said 2018 would be ‘better’ than 2017. The good news is that only 14% of New Zealanders say 2019 will be ‘worse’ than 2018.

“Women are more upbeat about the new year than men with 54% of women expecting 2019 will be ‘better’ than 2018 compared to 49% of men. Perhaps the successful example of leadership provided by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is having a positive impact on the confidence of New Zealand’s women more broadly.

“Once again New Zealanders are more positive about the year ahead than their counterparts across the Tasman with only 44% of Australians expecting 2019 will be ‘better’ than 2018.

“Australians face a Federal Election this year which is likely to lead to a change of Government whereas New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is going from strength to strength with the ANZ-Roy Morgan New Zealand Consumer Confidence Rating finishing 2018 at 121.9 its highest since March 2018.

Finding No. 7841 – This special Roy Morgan New Zealand web survey was conducted with a representative cross-section of 1,011 New Zealanders on December 13-14, 2018. They were asked “Do you think that 2019 will be better, worse, or the same as 2018?”

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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It's not surprising, as the Australian housing bubble is bursting, and most New Zealanders don't think NZ's will as well, or don't even think it's a bubble we're in.

"Only 14% (of New Zealanders) say 2019 will be ‘worse’"

They must all be commenters on this site

Hurrrrrrr Durrrrrrr 14% of the New Zealand population is 671,000 people, do you really think there are 671,000 people commenting on this site?

Only when there is a house price report...

NZDan, since you wanna do maths, they polled 1011 people, 14% is 141 people, getting closer to the number of negative commenters on this site, lol

They extrapolated that data out into the statement you quoted. So are you now saying only 141 New Zealanders (0.00004%) say 2019 will be worse?

Get a life

Have a great day!

Its the other way round on this site, only about 14% are happy, the rest are moaning their asses off.

Its a pretty useless stat. A high Better count can just be a result of the last year being really crap. E.g. the record high 2009.

It can also indicate the end of an economic cycle, when most people don't see trouble coming. Everything was just great, right before the GFC hit.

Or... it could even mean the majority see 2019 even better than 2018? Just saying LOL