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Tuesday's Top 10 with NZ Mint: Jens Weidemann and the devil; A fight in a bedroom for 79,000; A rescue fund to borrow 2 trln euro to bail out countries that borrowed too much; Deflation nostalgia; Dilbert

Tuesday's Top 10 with NZ Mint: Jens Weidemann and the devil; A fight in a bedroom for 79,000; A rescue fund to borrow 2 trln euro to bail out countries that borrowed too much; Deflation nostalgia; Dilbert

Here's my Top 10 links from around the Internet at midday today in association with NZ Mint.

As always, we welcome your additions in the comments below or via email to bernard.hickey@interest.co.nz.

See all previous Top 10s here.

My must read is #9 on the strange nostalgia for the deflationary depressions of the late 1800s from the Ayn Randist Libertarians of the world. Please excuse the plethora of Mitt Romney cartoons. It was just too easy.

1. Jens Weidemann and the devil - Wolfgang Munchau writes well at FT.com about the extraordinary comments last week from Bundesbank boss Jens Weidemann about Mephisto (the devil) in Faust suggesting money printing to an emperor to solve a shortage of money.

It still makes you shake your head.

The head of Germany's central bank has used one of the most emotive figures in one of Germany's most revered stories to accuse his fellow central bankers of an evil act.

Now that's what I call an independent central banker.

It goes to show what an extraordinary time we are living in.

Here's Munchau, a German, with the meaning and his own criticism of Weidemann:

It should be clear by now what game Mr Weidmann is playing. He is sabotaging the euro through the most effective means he has at his disposal – by reinforcing people’s innate fears about the common currency. He cannot outvote the governing council of the ECB. He is in a minority of one. He also knows that he cannot overturn the ECB’s policy through the legal route. Anybody who decided to drag Mario Draghi in front of the European Court of Justice would lose. Mr Weidmann no longer has any pull over Angela Merkel, the German chancellor he once advised.

But make no mistake: he is very effective in encouraging a creeping euroscepticism among Germans. In doing so, he may well succeed in undermining the chance of the euro’s survival because euroscepticism limits the German government’s political room for manoeuvre. The situation reminds me very much of the way the political debate in Britain turned anti-EU in the early to mid-1990s.

2. A fight at the factory - Some of China's factories are humming right now producing Apple iPhones.

But Bloomberg reports one in Shanxi province had to be shut down over the weekend after a fight broke out between factions of its workforce who live and work at the factory, which employs 79,000 people...

What good can come of one factory employing 79,000 people working in dormitories...

A fight between rival worker groups at a dormitory operated by an outside company broke out at about 11 p.m. last night and escalated before security and police brought the situation under control by about 3 a.m., Woo said. Some workers were arrested, he said without providing details.

“The impact on production should be minor and the lost manufacturing could be made up with overtime,” said Vincent Chen, an analyst at Yuanta Financial Holding Co.“The China government could step in to ensure continued operations if it’s just an issue between workers rather than about conditions.”

3. Just add leverage - Der Spiegel reports (via Reuters) that the new European Stability Mechanism plans to borrow money (!) to leverage up the grants it will get from European countries to bail out European countries that have borrowed  too much...

Hmm. Let's borrow money to bail out countries that have borrowed too much money. It's like magic...

This is not going to end well. Funnily enough, Finland is not a fan.

If the ESM gets approval to use the same leverage techniques as the EFSF, it would have a lending power of around 2 trillion euros without countries having to contribute any more capital to the fund.

But these leverage options have not been approved by all euro zone member states and Finland is especially reluctant to agree to them.

4. The Power of Stories - Yale Economist Robert J Shiller has written a lot about 'animal spirits', the magic often referred to as business confidence or consumer confidence that triggers investment or spending decisions.

Here in this Project Syndicate piece he talks about the power of narratives to influence economics and markets, and even well beyond their real significance. He uses the Greek legend as an example.

Psychologists have stressed that there is a narrative basis to human thinking: people remember – and are motivated by – stories, particularly human-interest stories about real people. Popular stories tend to take on moral dimensions, leading people to imagine that bad outcomes reflect some kind of loss of moral resolve.

The European crisis began with a Greek meltdown story, and it appears that the entire global economy is threatened by events in a country of only 11 million people. But the economic importance of stories bears no close relation to their monetary value (which can be measured only after the fact, if at all). It depends, instead, on their story value.

5. Hollowing out the middle class - Chrystia Freeland writes at Reuters about how the Internet revolution has hollowed out the middle classes of the developed world.

John van Reenan, professor of economics and director of the Center for Economic Performance at the London School of Economics and Political Science, is one of the foremost students of this transition. He thinks the biggest impact of the e-commerce revolution, and its counterparts in sectors like the law or accounting, won’t be on the number of jobs in the economy; it will be on how well they pay.

“The worry isn’t the quantity of jobs; it is the quality of jobs,” he said in a telephone interview from his base in London. “Other jobs will appear, but they may not be very attractive jobs.”

Van Reenan believes this trend has already begun, with deep social and political consequences. “It is a continuation of the hollowing out of the middle class, which we have seen,” he said. “People will find it harder to support a middle-class family.”

6. Greece's fresh budget hole - Der Spiegel reports Greece's budget deficit of 20 billion euros is twice as big as forecast. Again. HT ZH.

According to a preliminary Der Spiegel finding, the troika of European Commission, European Central Bank and International Monetary Fund reported that the government of Prime Minister Antonis Samaras is missing currently around 20 billion euros - nearly twice as much as last admitted. Only if the funding gap is closed, the next EU tranche will be transferred to Athens.


7. 'The Fed was tightening' - Ambrose Evans Pritchard writes the US Federal Reserve was actually tightening earlier this year before it announced QE Infinity.

The Fed has been tightening this year, a fact overlooked in the Weimar/Zimbabwe slapstick of the last two weeks. Yields on ten-year inflation-indexed Treasuries or TIPS -- a proxy of inflation expectations -- have crashed zero to minus 0.7pc since January. If this is the start of hyperinflation, nobody told the bond markets. The Fed's balance sheet has shrunk by $120bn to $2.82 trillion since February as the old schemes run off -- the `TALF' and suchlike.

Assets reached a plateau of around 16pc of GDP two years ago and have not changed much since then. This is exactly the same as in 1951 before the Fed's last great experiment was unwound. It is also lower than the balance sheets of the ECB, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, or -- arguably -- China's central bank.

8. Oligopololistic capitalism  - Philip Pilkington writes at Naked Capitalism about the strange nostalgia for deflation among the Libertarian supporters of Ayn Rand. They include Mitt Romney's vice presidential running partner Paul Ryan.

The most popular aspect of the libertarian doctrine today is probably the idea that deflation is not such a bad thing – indeed, it may even be a morally purifying cure. Uncomfortable – like a cold shower – but necessary to rid a gluttonous populace of its worst excesses.

The economic argument among actual libertarians for this view runs broadly that prices in a competitive economy should generally be tending downwards rather than upwards. The rational argument – as is typical of extremist ideologies – for the most part masks a more deeply embedded emotional appeal. Simply put, the argument plays to the hoarding impulse so prevalent among gold-bugs, who appear to overlap strongly with libertarians.

While it would be too much of a distraction to go into the origin of the compulsive hoarding impulse here, it should simply be noted that among right-wing libertarians it is often mixed up with saving. Not only are these two distinct concepts within the sphere of economics – hoarding being a removal of wealth from circulation and saving being the deployment of present wealth to procure future wealth – but they are generally recognised as distinct concepts in psychology, both popular and medical. Even children can distinguish between Scrooge and true capitalists.

9. Keep an eye on Spain - The Catalan independence movement is getting a run on in Spain. The Spanish military are not keen. I don't want to think too hard about where civil war in Spain led in the 1930s.

Here's Wolf Richter at BusinessInsider.

discussion of the nitty-gritty of independence has broken out. Hot topic: the distribution of central government debt. Would Catalonia have to carry 20% or 16%? Or none because Spain issued the bonds and not Catalonia? Would Catalonia be better off within Spain or as independent state? Would it even be financially viable? Rumors are swirling that members of the governing coalition have asked the European Commission if Spain can legally stop Catalans from seceding, and if it can expel an independent Catalonia from the EU via its veto power. As there is no law that would allow secession, there is also no law regulating it. So everything is up in the air. But the fact that this is getting serious attention, shows just how far the process has already gone.

And the military staked out its role. Colonel Francisco Alaman promised to crush the “vultures” if they chose independence. “Independence for Catalonia? Over my dead body,” he said. “Even if the lion is sleeping, don’t provoke the lion, because he will show the ferocity proven over centuries.” Words of the crazed fringe? Apparently not. “Deeply-rooted thinking in large parts of the armed forces,” explained retired Lt-Gen Pedro Pitarch.

10. Totally Jon Stewart on Mitt Romney and the 47%.

 

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30 Comments

Number 1

Bernard Hickey Quote: Now that's what I call an independent central banker.

 

WOW

 

Do you know of any others closer to home? Think carefully now.

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Can anyone shed some light on what's up with Newmont? They are talking redundancies at some of their gold mines, including Martha (formerly hill) mine.

 From the Herald:  "The decision to reduce our workforce is not one that we take lightly and we will be working closely with all staff to help them through this difficult period," said general manager of operations Glen Grindlay.

"But the reality is that over the past five years our operational costs such as materials and labour have risen far faster than gold prices." Those prices rises have had "a significant impact on the company" globally and in Waihi, Grindlay said.   "We need to start reducing our costs now in order to keep the mine viable."   Now, while the fool at the Herald thinks he's done his job by parroting this nonsense, I think there must be something else going on here. They were producing gold here when it was $500/ounce ten years ago, it's now over four times that. Sure, we've had a bit of inflation, say 30% compound but this sounds like complete bullshit.
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uh.....predictable, documented and expected.  Didnt you notice Solid Energy recently?

Ten years ago oil was how much? 

$22USD.

http://www.ioga.com/Special/crudeoil_Hist.htm

today its $90~$110USD

So energy is 5 times more and likely to remain there unless in a depression in which case ppl will be too poor to buy gold.

Ten years ago the amount of gold extracted per tonne or rock was how much?

"Ore grades have fallen from around 12 grams per tonne in 1950 to nearer 3 grams in the US, Canada, and Australia"

So 5 times more costly energy and 4 times more rock to move to get the same amount of gold.

Gold Mines like oil fields, coal fields all peak and decline,

NB...peak gold, arguable as between 2000 and 2025, in real terms its about now.

"On July 2012, Natural Resource Holdings CEO Roy Sebag wrote a report entitled "2012 World Gold Deposit Ranking"[8] claiming that gold production would peak between 2022-2025 due to the markedly lower grades and remote locations of the remaining known undeveloped deposits. "Consequently, the guaranteed depletion in the existing production mix coupled with a more realistic introduction of new mines into the mix (as opposed to our theoretical tomorrow scenario) makes it clear that barring multiple high-grade, multi-million ounce discoveries each year, a significant increase in gold production is unlikely. Moreover our calculations point towards gold production peaking at some point between 2022 and 2025 assuming the 90mm ounce per year figure is maintained."

Nothing about energy price effects I can see which makes it sooner.

"Barrick shuts hedge book as world gold supply runs out Global gold production is in terminal decline despite record prices and Herculean efforts by mining companies to discover fresh sources of ore in remote spots, according to the world's top producer Barrick Gold."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/industry/mining/6546579…

 

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Yes that's a posibility Steven but it seems unlikely that all of the mines would be in sharp decline similtaneously.

I was thinking of a couple of other reasons.

A/ If a couple of the really big miners put their heads together and wound back production what do you think that would do to the price?

B/ these gold miners are making outrageous profits with gold at well over $2,000/ounce but paying, literally, pennies in royalties. They must be thinking they are a target for cash hungry governments hence crying poor and sacking (or shooting) a few mine workers.

 

BTW here's a link to the herald "article"  http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=10836378

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Maybe they are realising finally the era of cheap oil is over and its not economic to continue. Bear in mind the huge denial of peak oil has been going on for a decade, then consider its only now in the last few years that the realisiation that oil at >85$ is permanent and the new normal...

They are not all in sharp decline similtaneously...some have been for years....If you reached peak production at your mine in 2000, they oil was still cheap, you kept going....Oil peaked in Jul 2008 then dropped off a cliff....so the mine Owners probably breathed a sigh of relief...then watched it get back to $80 and stay there....then if they had some attention on it realised the marrginla cost of new wells was $90 so thats the new normal.

These guys are miners they should be able to apply gold mining geology and engineering over to looking at oil and say oh sh*t.....same there as here.

What you describe is an illegal  wolrd wide cartel so rather than understand the limits of our planet you invent fantasy about conspiracys?

occams razor I'd suggest.

Also this is the same story in lots of other commodities....its rinse and repeat, if you bothered to look,

Sure its possible the mining companies are p[laying hard ball with Govns, they said they need to reduce costs and one way is to reduce royalties and tax....

Like PDK and I have been saying for years the pie is shrinking and bunfight is only just beginning.

regards

 

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I am afraid you need to do some more research on gold mining. Costs have been soaring (one of the biggest inputs is fuel) and ore quality has been declining (peak gold anyone?).

In the ten years up to 2011 for the biggest 24 US gold miners the AVERAGE cost to mine an ounce of gold rose 273%  -  your 30% compounded as you see is way off the mark.

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Thanks Andy, the 30% was for general inflation. I don't know the specifics of each mines costs but I do know that NZ gold production and export volumes are as high as they've ever been without any major increase in labour numbers and other costs which should be in line with general inflation. Fuel up maybe double but no road user charges for mine use. All still way out of wack with a quadrupelling of the gold price.

Be very careful with company accounts for these characters, they have ways of shifting profits and costs to best advantage royalty and tax responsabilities.

However, if what you say is correct, gold is a screaming buy at these prices.

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Sorry I forgot the link:

http://www.resourceinvestor.com/2012/03/02/reviewing-gold-mining-margins

As you see there is money to be made but it all comes down to the economics of the particular mine.

Costs keep a rising floor under the price of gold - if the gold price fell by very much mines would quickly shut down as they became uneconomic - removing supply and thus supporting the price (a situation analogous to what would happen in the oil market if the price of oil fell below the $80 it now costs to produce the more expensive barrels).

As for whether this makes gold a screaming buy - I could not possibly comment.

 

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Trade Protectionism - via the currency. I keep going on about it - for good reason.

http://useconomy.about.com/od/glossary/g/Trade-Protectionism.htm

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Yep it's official....I'm going with Wheedler for Wheeler if it's more of the same, or Sprocket Man if I find anything to appreciate about him, like  having the ability to keep listeners at least awake during announcements.

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How about Rocketman. Wheedler has a bad taste to it. If Wheeler is "his own man" ie "independent" then he should put a rocket up a few things right from the outset, causing English to contemplate the implications of calling Wheeler in and firing him.

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your seeing where I was going with it iconoclast.....so it's all up to him now ....what's it to be Mr W W W W ......eeler

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http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=3w4tcIsaInE
Black tie activists crash HMRC boss' retirement do

Well Worth a look if you have not seen it yet

“These people are trespassers and intruders, this is an unlawful conspiracy to tresspass, and you will go sir, you will depart immediately, before we set the dogs on you”
 

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 Thanks,a must see Plan B....fair peed myself ,well done to the young team that put it together.

Now why didn't I think to turn up at Bolly's departure with a Golden Suppository to encourage him to get off his arse in the future , if only to do something.

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Not fair. Bolly did something.

 

Declared the recession over in 2008 for a start.

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yeah , my bad Alan H....but did he stand to do it...? ( < : } +

 

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that was my favourite from Bollard. My business, and my clients, were experiencing hardest times ever back in 2nd half of 2008 - and there was Bollard declaring the recession over. I was amazed. It was like he was living in an alternate universe, far removed from reality. Appalling. 

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Fabulous protest action. Thank you for the link!

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#2 and Chinese factories being shut down over fighting workers.

“The impact on production should be minor and the lost manufacturing could be made up with overtime,”

 

Oh boy, so what's overtime when according to John Stewart the days are already up to 35 hours long. :-)

 

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Can anyone in NZ comprehend what a factory employing 79,000 workers would look like?  It's equivalent in NZ to everyone in Palmerston North, NZ's 7th largest urban conurbation, working in a single place.  

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and sleeping in mass dorms and eating in communial canteens....but then as a society accomodation and population density is a concept that many NZers dont fathom, where chinese are used to it.  For instance to get a one bedromm flat in the capital you have to be somebody quite senior, that was in the 90s but I dont think its changed much.

NB bear in mind the conditions outside such places are pretty "hard core" and the pay isnt bad at all...by chinese standards.  In a way its very libertarian, if you dont have money or someone to look after you, you could starve or freeze to death no one would help.

regards

 

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And who is going to bail out the ECB when reality rolls through Europe?

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Re; #8 - Surely consumers, particularly the less well off, would prefer falling prices.  IT hardware prices have been falling ever since PC's became popular, has that not caused the exponential increase in their popularity?

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oh dear, congrats you get my stupid of the day award, sorry GBH I have to take it off you at least for today.

Have you never considered where the less well off work?  and the consequences of falling prices driven down by lack of sales? not inovation/improvment? They end up on 4 day weeks? already on the minimum wage per hour? 20% pay cut there and then.  '

So OK a PC costs $1000 yesterday and $950 today, well when you are on the minimum wage its still out of reach. I did some Linux desktop building some years back, the charity got "free" pc's off companies and since they had no Windows licence got linux installed and then were given to poor families to give them a PC.  It had to be Linux as Microsoft wanted 5 x times what the old PC hardware was worth for a OS licence.  We also watched as companies crushed perfectly good PCs because of tax reasons....if they had had any value they would have to pay the IRD money....so they had to destroy them.

So no, the better off ppl who dont work in briscoes, DSE or most shops, sure, thier disposable income goes even further.....Im sure they are happy....

Really I dont think you have any idea of being poor.

regards

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I will not stoop to your level of name calling, so you really believe that the poor prefer rising prices then?  BTW I know, probably far better than you, what it's like to come from an unprivileged background.  I managed to become independently well off through hard work and saving,  

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Hmmm didn't really address the issue.

Why precisely is deflation bad?  As mentioned, all electronics are pretty much deflationary and yet we buy them.

People would only buy what they actually need or really want right now - anything else they're better buying tomorrow.  In fact that sounds positively green, conservation of our planet's resources and all that.

Not to mention you wouldn't buy a house for capital gains - you'd only buy it if you had a need for it, or if your actual cash returns were worthwhile.

I can certainly see many problems with deflation (for example downward pressure on prices means downward pressure on wages, issues with raising loans on depreciating collateral), but I wonder if they're worse as a whole than the mess we have now...

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Andrew S.... 

It is even better than that..  True Deflation as a result of productivity ( knowledge/innovation) is a wonderful thing...  Call it benign deflation.... (There would be a relationship between productivity and standard of living, for the average worker... in my view.)

We could easily have a fixed supply of Fiat currency , and simply, over time, create smaller units of that currency as the purchasing power of the currency increases...eg. bring back the 1 cent coin.

The Banking system HATES deflation because their whole "modus operandi".. is to create credit ....  forever... more and more credit. 

In a deflationary world, as a result of productivity,... banks would be no more than Deposit taking institutions.....   and u might find that Capital Formation might shift away from borrowing to equity..??? Borrowing/lending would be a far less pleasant thing to do.

Money printing and credit growth is a subtle appropriation and transfer of wealth...... and in my view is one of the main reasons for the trend of the division of wealth being in fewer and fewer hands... over time

 

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Exactly right Roelof.

 

But as long as the 0.1% have control of the media, the education system, the Federal Reserve and most major central banks we can expect nothing to change until the whole system falls flat on its face.

 

At 71 I didn't think I'd live long enough to see the current system overturned, but the current confluence of debt, peak everything, near exponential effects of climate change looming, the gutting of the middle class... — I could go on. :) — I'm 90% sure that there will be revolution.

 

It probably won't be pretty.

 

For those who aren't totally au fait with the way money is created, how it's inextricably linked with exponential growth and inescapable exponential debt, Michael at The Economic Collapse explains it succinctly:

http://alanvallis.wordpress.com/2012/09/05/where-does-money-come-from-2/

The full story in animated form from Paul Grignon is here:

http://alanvallis.wordpress.com/2012/05/28/where-does-money-come-from/

 

(Thanks to whoever it was first posted the Paul Grignon Money as Debt I link here. My education started with that 6 decades too late.)

Nobody I've explained this stuff to has believed me including an accountant friend until she consulted an economist, so I show them this:

If you think we're not in on it here it is from the Resevrve Bank's mouth:

 

The Reserve Bank, private sector banks and the creation  of money and credit   https://dl.dropbox.com/u/2311802/Economics/money%20creation%20in%20New%20Zealand.pdf   We have the power.    About time we woke up and used it.
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AH - Thanks for those excellent links.  BTW we are never too old too learn.

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A summary of the US Financial System:

 

QE∞

 

 

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