More than 10,000 new homes were added to Auckland's housing stock in the 12 months to the end of April, and that number could swell by a third over the next two years.
Auckland Council issued 10,195 Code Compliance Certificates (CCCs) for new residential dwellings in the year to April, up 12.9% on the previous 12 months.
CCCs are issued when a building is completed and are one of the most important indicators of construction activity because they show how many new housing units are actually being built, while building consents show how many housing units are intended to be built.
There is also substantial time delay between a new building being consented and receiving a CCC when it is completed.
The latest figures from Auckland Council show that 87% of the CCCs issued in April were for buildings that were consented within the previous two years.
The table below shows the number of CCCs issued by Auckland Council in the 12 month period ending April from 2014 to 2019, and the number of new dwelling consents issued in Auckland for the 12 month periods from April 2012 to April 2019.
The CCC numbers correlate quite closely with the consents numbers from two years previously.
For example, the 10,195 CCCs issued in the 12 months to April this year is a good match for the 10,226 consents issued in the year to April 2017.
The numbers show the very strong growth in the number of homes being built in Auckland, which have more than doubled over the last five years.
They also suggest that there is very little slippage, with most of the homes that are consented eventually getting built.
And the ongoing increase in the number of new dwelling consents that have been issued over the last two years suggests that the number of new homes that are completed and receive CCCs over over the next two years could rise to somewhere between 13,000 and 14,000 a year by 2021.
Interest.co.nz estimates that Auckland's housing stock needs to increase by around 10,500 homes a year for housing supply to match the demand generated by population growth.
If that is the case, supply of new housing has probably already caught up with migration-driven growth in demand for new housing, and ongoing increases will start to reduce the accumulated shortfall in housing that built up due to many years of under building.
However since Statistics NZ changed the way it measures migration it has been unable to provide estimates of regional migration patterns and that, coupled with problems from the last census, mean a reliable estimate of Auckland's population is not currently available.
However the latest figures suggest the pressures on Auckland's housing stock should be starting to ease, and may ease significantly over the next two years.
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|Code Compliance Certificates issued by Auckland Council, compared to new dwelling consents issued two years previously|
|Code Compliance Certificates Issued||New Dwelling Consents Issued|
|12 months to April||12 months to April|