Slightly more properties are being sold than are being passed in at the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz

Slightly more properties are being sold than are being passed in at the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz

Auction activity lifted slightly over the last few weeks, with interest.co.nz monitoring 439 auctions around the country over the two week period from October 14-27.

That gave an average of about 220 properties week, up from the average of around 165 over the previous few weeks.

However auction activity is still down by about a third comparted to this time last year.

But the sales rate remained fairly steady, with sales recorded on 53% of the auctioned properties from October 14-27, almost unchanged from the previous few weeks.

So overall, slightly more properties are being sold each week than are being passed in but the total numbers are slowly rising.

However there's doesn't appear to have been much movement in prices.

Where selling prices could be matched with a property's Rating Valuation (RV), 60% sold for more than their RV, 38% sold for less and 2% were the same.

And auction sales trends in Auckland continue to closely match those in the rest of the country.

In Auckland the sales rate was 55%, with 56% of selling prices being above their RVs and 42% selling for less.

Looking ahead the Orders of Sale received from agencies for auctions to be held in the week from October 28 to November 2 suggest there is likely to be a lift in auction room activity over that period, but we will have to wait and see how that translates into sales and what effect it has on prices.

At the main Auckland apartment auction of the week, conducted by Ray White City Apartments on October 31, 12 apartments were up for grabs and there was a good mix, with everything from large, spacious apartments to units that needed extensive remediation work and student units.

One of the units had its auction postponed and there was bidding on eight of the remaining units, although for several of them there was just a single bidder and by the end of the auction four had sold under the hammer.

Details of the individual properties offered at all of the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz and the results achieved are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

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The Auckland market still seems to be humming along remarkably well. It'll be interesting to see what the October HPI is. We've had 14 months where it has been down YoY, but I reckon there's a chance October breaks that pattern. Longer term I'm still expecting affordability to slowly improve, I mean it has to doesn't it?!

Despite some people here pronouncing (over the last 4/5 years) that a huge downward correction was about to take place in the Auckland housing market, it has remained remarkably resilient.

And Auckland house owners are notably reluctant to sell in the current climate.

House Hunter's comments (above) are completely plausible.

TTP

That's the wonderful thing about BIG corrections - you can't see them coming.....and they are only evident after the fact.
And for those that do think they can see what's coming in a gently easing market, the temptation to say "I'll just hang on until it gets back to $X, and then I'll sell" is human nature. Perhaps why house owners are reluctant to sell at the moment?

Hi bw
It’s like crossing the road, you might not see that big red bus that hits you but we do keep an eye out and take that risk and still cross the road.
There is always a risk of a market collapse which we may not see coming, but like crossing the road, we need to be prudent, keep an eye out, and get on with life.
As Roosevelt said “There is nothing to fear but fear itself”.

“There is nothing to fear but fear itself” There is if you're trying to catch the falling property price knife. I think we prefer to face facts and take a calculated risk rather than just take a chance that the AKL market is going to rise again. There's certainly some big price drops especially with the apartment sales, some selling for less than a CBD parking space would have fetched a few years ago.

Hi Cj1099
Auckland median price September 2019 vs 2018 +0.2% (REINZ October).

LOL not much of a pulse then. In comparison and according to the REINZ data Auckland's median price in October 2016 was up +16% year-on-year. Don't forget that we're still down from our peak price aren't we.

What the h*ll has the median rise in October 2016 to do with the current trend in the Auckland market??????
You prattle on about the market is continuing to fall - "catching a falling knife" you call it - when clearly the current REINZ figures debunk your assertion by showing that in the October YOY it didn't (albeit only a small rise).

p8, don't waste your time...

What I'm showing you is that the Auckland market had rapid increases only a few years ago, where as today's market is very much stagnant. Do you not understand that stats? And yes we're still below the peak medium price for Auckland go look at the recent stats in the attached link from REINZ (Page 14). https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2019/Residen...

Auckland HPI, September 2019 vs 2018 = -0.8%, most likely on the same page you got that other figure from.

Why did you go for an inferior measure?

Note I referred to Median Price.
Page 14: Auckland Regional Trends, Page 14, REINZ September Report.
Cheers

Ah, the I don't have a good answer so i'll pretend i didn't understand the question ploy.

Weak, very weak.

I don't even think he's read the REINZ report. Quote " Auckland Compared to August 2018 Median Price down -3.5%, Sales Count down 4.1% (Page 13). REINZ report https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2019/Residen...

I think printer8 meant the report on September sales, not August.

But yeah, the REINZ HPI was down 0.8% while the median was up 0.2%. Both not too good after inflation, but the HPI definitely worse.

Inflation 1.5% - ~1.7%.

CJ099 appears to have taken over from where Retired-Poppy (aka "Crash-Crusader") left off.......

And we all remember the fallibility of R-P's comments/forecasts. A shyster if ever there was.

TTP

Hi TTp
CJ1099 is just not a happy chappy at all; besotted with a world being full of doom and gloom. :)

Actual I had a nice day enjoying the sunshine, where you sad people have been bickering over figures that you can't even prove. Go read the recent REINZ report link that I sent to you. https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2019/Residen...

Printer8. I like your analogy, very apt and very well put

Hi Printer8 and Houseworks,

Pragmatist is a painfully sore case too - just as flawed as CJ099, Expired-Poppy and Chairman Motor Moa.

TTP

Heres my prediction ... We WONT be seeing retired-poppy around here again, he is gone for good

Lol. *takes a bow*

LOL Ttp; You and your Real Estate Agent buddies can't even read a REINZ report Auckland's median prices are still below peak. Now you look unbelievable sad the lot of you! :P https://www.reinz.co.nz/Media/Default/Statistic%20Documents/2019/Residen...

Improve the quality of your rebuttals to the points that these people raise.

Name calling and ad hominem statements is unacceptable behaviour.

If people choose to resort to name calling & ad hominem statements, that is a reflection of the person making the statement. That is bullying and that behavior would be unacceptable by responsible parents with their children.

TTP - I agree the Auckland market has been very resilient and the predictions by many of a collapse was always ridiculous as we all new. The market fundamentals are strong and those who have chosen to not be in the market only option has been to wish for a collapse so they could potentially buy at a price others have. Short of foot and mouth or a volcanic eruption the upswing in Auckland is not far away ! The cyclic nature of all markets is a difficult thing for many to grasp but like many things in life you don't have to like them but it is important to understand them and reckonise them. And before all the negative comments arrive having being able to stand back and see the bigger cyclical nature of the economy and the housing market for 37 years has allowed me and my family to build enormous wealth that cannot be accomplished by working. Invest or become a DGM.

Hi Shoreman
While not one who holds to simply to the cyclic nature of the world (there are too many factors involved such as RBNZ influence) I agree with your sentiment.
I strongly agree with you, and whatever one thinks about property, the reality is that the comfortable middle class - clearly such as yourself - can look to much of their financial security having come from home ownership.
It does concern me that there are currently housing affordability issues and that many are going to miss out onthe intrinsic value of home ownership and also with loss of that financial security.
I have previously posted; RBNZ figures show over 75,000 mortgages to FHB in past three years and a conservative average of 1.5 people per home that is over 110,000 (commonly) young people now appreciating the intrinsic and financial security of home ownership.
The small number of DGM on this site are comparably a very, very small minority compared to that 110,000 people who I consider have initiative and will be enjoying and making a success of their lives.

Suggest you ask Steve Balmer about how much wealth can be accomplished by working :-)

Hi hh, you say: "I'm still expecting affordability to slowly improve, I mean it has to doesn't it?!"

Good question and a very pertinent one for a house hunter. I think it's important you look at the answer to your question from a factual perspective rather than a "fair" perspective. Of course it would be awesome if everyone could afford a house but this is NOT a reason for houses to become "more affordable". I don't say that in a sarcastic or condescending way, I just think it's important you look at it with a good hot cup of reality in your hand.

Hi Yvil. Fortunately I'm an ex hh now. My choice of user name was somewhat short sighted!
I agree nothing is written in stone regarding house affordability.

Congratulations. Soooooooo, where did you buy? Does it have north facing bedrooms? Great indoor - outdoor flow?

Thanks Nzdan. It's fairly central & yesx2.

Well done hh, I hope you're happy owning your own house

Vendors too have realized and many who want to sell are ready to meet the market unlike last year where vendors wefe being in Denial mode.

Also at the moment fall that was happening over last year specially in Auckland has stopped or slowed and market at this stage is more or less stabilized at those low price that has been established - more in houses selling below $900000 mark but house more than million are still struggling.

Could be a good time for some people to trade up.

"Trading up" shows faith in the market and as such it is also the right time for First Home Buyers to make a move eh. For some it is a Long Overdue Move Fritz

Trading up does not necessarily show faith in the market.
My point is the high end of the market is in a poor shape. The mid high end is not so bad. Someone who sells a mid high end property may have to pay less than they normally would to get a high end property.
That is the product of a weak-ish market rather than a strong one.

Agree. High end was where overseas cash was paying $1-2m over previous market (what kiwi wages can pay) and now it's gone. High end premium has to be more or less the cost of private education for 2-3 kids. Up untill the ban you need 10 plus kids to make it stack and that was interest only on the extra debt.

That said I am impressed at the markets resilience. For it to change an overseas shock will need to occur, and what/how/when is anyone's guess. Lots of press and billionaire types saying a correction is on the way though. Time will tell.

"Lots of press and billionaire types saying a correction is on the way though" Ya sure??

The Biggest Housing Boom In History Has Just Begun
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/stephenmcbride1/2019/1...

https://www.investopedia.com/investing/next-housing-recession-2020-predi...
"In a research report in which Zillow polled 100 real estate experts and economists about their predictions for the housing market, it disclosed that nearly half of all survey respondents said the next recession will commence in 2020, with the first quarter of the year cited the most as to when the recession will start. The main culprit for the housing recession: monetary policy."

NZ and US elections to be held next year as well. If a recession does happen, there definitely would be a change of presidentè and Donald Trump would also lose. Recession to start next quarter you say? Wasnt it supposed to have been this year

Those aren't my words.. they are a quote from the linked article.

You weren't that specific when you made the claim Fritz you said "....good time for people to trade up"! That statement doesnt just mean trade up from a 3 bed in Devonport to a Cheltenham waterfront 4 bed and includes trading up from one bed new Lynn fhb apartment to a 2 bed standalone home in avondale. I think rather that you were caught out by the obvious observation that you would not make the assertion unless the market was at least stable or better still its beginning to lift in auckland. Freudian slip by you

Doesn't Fritz say "...some people..." thereby meaning your reasoning is completely invalid?

House works has a regular habit of misquoting or misrepresenting people. The editors of this site don't seem to care, nor care for his homophobia and abusive behaviour. Hence you won't hear from me much anymore.

I will ignore that ridiculous comment except to say that you seem to be gradually turning to the plus side so you possibly need a new identity. If that's true then you will not be alone, I am sure other DGMs here will be doing the same within 12 months

His comment is not ridiculous, you regularly do misrepresent people.

Dont you realise that Fritz wants to play victim as a parting shot before his phoney predictions really hit home. I cant help he has made up a lot fantasy statements for which I have called him out.

Okay Donald...

2 quotes from the article above"

"activity (= number of sales) is still down by about a third compared to this time last year."
"60% sold for more than their RV, 38% sold for less and 2% were the same"

Posted in the wild hope that maybe just 1 commenter may understand that fewer sales doesn't necessarily lead to falling prices. (not holding my breath though)

Prices fall when sellers capitulate or builders or developers. This is what Bindi means when she refers to vendors meeting market. Over supply and lack of sales for those with too much stock and debts to roll over means off loading at lower prices. This is what is coming in March

Is the current NZ market unreasonably expensive? For a reality check, I like to find lists of the "Fastest-Growing US Cities" and "best places to live in the US" etc. Some of them are very liveable and picturesque with good economic prospects. If you check local prices on Zillow.com for these, even allowing for the exchange rate, many of these small to medium sized cities are well below NZ prices, sometimes hugely so. California not so much, as the market is quite high there, but elsewhere for sure. I encourage you to do this exercise if you haven't, for comparison.

California is broke, shaking along a certain fault, on fire, and stacked full of homeless types. And over priced.

NZ is quite shaky (shaky Isles), but yes, apparently quite a few people going to some of the fastest growing cities (some not very expensive) in the west are from Calif.
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/economy/2018/05/26/fastest-growing-...

California has a GDP/capita that is 1.5x New Zealand's.

It's almost as if higher wages are needed to support higher house prices.
Nah, Auckland will show the world with the Ashley Church property clock. Prices to double and only 7 years to go.

If that does happen, NZ taxpaying economic refugees in Awk will continue to move elsewhere. Perhaps that better for NZ in the long term anyway

Do they get back what they paid in 2016... or is the sale price closer to the homes estimate for a 6 figure loss?

https://www.realestate.co.nz/3657393
https://homes.co.nz/address/auckland/kelston/17-tamariki-avenue/rLo1n

The person who bought that home in 2011 did well when they sold in 2016. $88k p.a. profit.

Unless they ploughed it straight back into the market in 2016?
That's the challenge - having the courage to stay out of any market that's just done well for you. If history is any guide, that sort of result is often followed by a gearing up of a position ie: "If I made $440k on the last place, imagine if I bought 2,5 or 10 of them, to replace it, and how much that will make!"
(PS: Wasn't FOMO at a crescendo about then? Who was going to sell and not 'get back in' ?)

Bitcoin being a perfect recent example.

yep, I doubt the current owners get back what they paid, but we will see.

Every investment decision should have an exit strategy. What will you do if your idea doesn’t work? Ideally, you make that decision before you invest. Mistakes are inevitable but survivable if you recognize them quickly and act to minimize their costs. Great ideas don’t always work out as expected. Then what? Doing nothing isn’t an especially good option because, like it or not, the world is becoming something quite different than we expected just a few years ago

https://ggc-mauldin-images.s3.amazonaws.com/uploads/pdf/TFTF_Nov_01_2019...

There has been a fair amount of discussion about low sales volumes, and how they could indicate an imminent fall in prices. One thing I haven't seen discussed is the impact of the bright-line test on sales volume. The two year test applies to houses bought from 1 Oct 2015 onwards and the 5 year test applies to houses bought from 29 Mar 2018 onwards. In essence the 5 year test only starts to matter in March 2020, although investors purchasing properties now would want to be taking it into account.

It seems reasonable to theorize that the bright-line test has reduced the amount of house flipping going on, thereby reducing overall sales volume. But it doesn't just influence the amount of flipping; it reduces the general liquidity of investment properties, and holiday homes too.

Re nz listings for houses and townhouses are falling in last 6 days. Yes that is a fact. Unbelievable
What is happening is a reaction to surplus buying v mean last Spring. This Spring therefore those who sold above average number won’t sell. V coming sensical

What do you mean by "V coming sensical"?

I think its supposed to be "Very common sensical"