Overall sales rate of 46% at Barfoot & Thompson's auctions

Overall sales rate of 46% at Barfoot & Thompson's auctions

Activity remained relatively steady in Barfoot & Thompson's auction rooms in the week from November 11-17, with the agency processing 144 properties for auction, down slightly from the 159 it handled the previous week.

Of those, sales were achieved on 66 properties, giving an overall sales rate of 46%, barely changed from the 45% sales rate achieved the previous week.

At the bigger auctions where at least a dozen properties were offered, the sales rates ranged form 28% at the Manukau auction where a broad selection of properties from south and east Auckland were offered, to 58% at the Shortland St auction on November 13, where most of the properties offered were from central and central fringe suburbs such as Remuera, Mt Wellington, St Heliers, Meadowbank, Mt Eden and Grey Lynn.

At the big North Shore auction the sales rate was 53% (see table below for the detailed results from all auctions).

Details of the individual properties offered are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

Barfoot & Thompson Residential Auction Results 
11-17 November 2019
Date Venue Sold Sold Post Sold Prior Not Sold Postponed Withdrawn Total % Sold
11-17 Nov On-site 3   2 7   1 13 38%
12 Nov Manukau 6 1 2 19 3 1 32 28%
12 Nov Shortland St 5     7     12 42%
13 Nov Shortland St 16   2 10 2 1 31 58%
13 Nov Whangarei 1     1 1   3 33%
13 Nov Pukekohe 2     7     9 22%
14 Nov North Shore 11   5 12 1 1 30 53%
14 Nov Shortland St 5   1 1     7 86%
15 Nov Shortland St 4     2   1 7 57%
Total All venues 53 1 12 66 7 5 144 46%

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I am seeing a lot more houses being sold prior to auction these days. It is certainly seems a reasonably healthy market at the moment.

Though data is not very positive but when out in the market to buy - the feeling is that the market is strong (May be not going up like before - though some houses are but overall those selling are being sold at better price than would have been earlier).

Also many houses that are being bought are those that have been purchased in 2016 or after and at decently high price so important to see what happens to them as many are using this positive sentiments generated by RE Agent to offload their investment to minimize the loss (When you look at those hard core speculators offloading - conclusion that can be derived is that going forward market may not be strong otherwise why would they sell now, if the market is positive after waiting for few years surely could have have waited for some more months to sell at profit).

So is really wait and watch and if this time, the market does not hold and slid from here it will be meaningful for FHB.

The Auckland market does seem to be showing first signs of firming. While this data and others (e.g. REINZ) do tend to show this - it may be just a seasonal spring up turn - it will be a little while before a longer term trend becomes clear. However this trend is consistent with what a lot of reputable commentators with broader information are also saying.
So FHB note the caution in these comments, but if market trend is a serious consideration for you - and you are in a position to buy - it would seem worth considering moving. If price is highly important to you (e.g. your general habit is to shop primarily on price) it is probably more significant that you make sure that you buy well rather worry about the market trend.
The most important factor is that you can service your loan and short term trend over the next year or two are unimportant and irrelevant as a home is about long term. If the proposed house makes sense and it i what you want for it and in the longer term it is most probably going to look exceptionally cheap in terms of the prices in 5 to 10 years time.

"short term trend over the next year or two are unimportant and irrelevant"
We don't know that! What if the Short Term is the precursor to a more pronounced downward trend?
Many technical analysts might tell you that the Short Term is a harbinger of the Long Term. But it's all about the timeframe. ( take those who subscribe to a Yield Curve inverting. They see that as Short Term movements, evident today, leading to Long Term nastiness)

Hi bw
I can give you lots of drivers in the Auckland market - continuing high immigration rates, housing shortages, although building consents are up the houses wont materialize for another six months or year, improving yields for investors (and some reputable commentators commenting that there is some increasing interest by investors), mortgage rates continuing to fall a little even 3 months after the OCR cut, possible increasing need by RBNZ on either LVRs and/or OCR for financial stability reasons in response to increasing global headwinds, opinions of reputable commentators, plus a range of current indicators showing a firming of the market, . . . . In the long term the outlook by banks is for continuing low mortgage rates as indicated by 5 to 7 year bank term deposit and mortgage rates.
So what is your rationale? Or is it just unsubstainiated scaremongering?
I do see a couple of downsides but they are far outweighed by the upside drivers.
Be realistic.
Cheers

11
up

* RBNZ capital requirements. Most commentors here don't seem to grasp the implications, but will likely drastically shift big four bank's willingness to lend to high LVR customers.
* Immigration is largely made up of people on working visa's, not people applying for residency. The real concern is that if unemployment starts rising it will drastically slow (or reverse) the flow of immigration.
* Record levels of construction that will be coming online over the next 12-24 months.
* Global macro economic conditions. This is the big one. The levels of global debt are unprecedented - and if you look at the history of economic downturns preceded by asset /debt bubbles it gets even scarier.

The fact you only mention a global headwinds and see it as a positive for the housing market (in the form of lower interest rates) suggests you aren't taking a balanced view of things.

People keep seeing a minor shift in the Auckland market as proof a "boom" is around the corner. The reality iprices are still going backwards (in real terms) during big cuts to the OCR it doesn't paint a pretty picture. If any of the factors currently supporting the Auckland market change (low unemployment, high immigration, cheap credit), this "uptick" in the Auckland market could turn very quickly.

"but will likely drastically shift big four bank's willingness to lend to high LVR customers."
That's most fhb then, longer term property owners should be lower lvr by now. If you are a prospective first home buyer you should do something before the above happens.

I like how you see OCR cuts as a positive and just footnote the reason for them being "global headwinds" - as if said "global headwinds" (i.e. a material global slowdown / recession) and the NZ property market exist in parallel universes.
The property market will just book the credit impulse without any fallout.

Who are the "reputable commentators" you keep referring to?
The only commentators I see that share your [myopic] view are either:
a) heavily conflicted;
b) know nothing about any asset class outside of NZ property;
c) heavily conflicted;
d) have no recognised qualifications or experience in finance or economics; or
e) heavily conflicted.

Exactly. If the OCR drops to 0% because of global headwinds, then it's quite likely that our economy will be in trouble, which will dampen housing demand.

"If the OCR drops to 0% ... will dampen housing demand."
WRONG!

I'm not totally sure whether you are really dumb or just trolling.
Read the whole sentence:

'Exactly. If the OCR drops to 0% because of global headwinds, then it's quite likely that our economy will be in trouble, which will dampen housing demand.'

Housing demand will dampen because the economy is in trouble. An OCR drop to zero will be a response to that.

What!? Go back 6 months to recent history, you said the same shit and stupid logic... Fake predictions to mislead and misguide others. No need to call me dumb you dumbass

That assertion was as true 6 months ago as it is today.

As people know, in early-mid 2018 I predicted a fall from peak in Auckland of 5-10%. Depending on how you measure, it's been between 3-6%.
So I was reasonably close.
I have called the bottom now, for now, and have been saying over the past 2-3 months that I see anywhere from small declines to small increases in 2020.
But any small increases will not mean much, when the collapse comes in either 2021 or 2022. Many reputable global economists and investors are calling a greater than 50% chance of a major recession in the next 2 years. I don't know for sure but I imagine many of them would say a 75% chance within 3-5 years.
Should that occur, I'd see NZ house prices dropping 20-30%.
Of course, it's up to each individual if they want to take the risk.
Personally, I'll wait and hope to pick up a house at a much lower price in a couple of years.
If, in 2 years, it looks pretty likely that things have stabilised, then I will still buy, but with a larger deposit.
I'm very confident that if prices do rise in the next 2 years, they won't rise by more than about 5%.

I predicted my son would grow to 5 foot 10 inches. Depending on how you measure it's 3 foot six inches. So I was reasonably close

lame

Having looked at the Barfoot & Thompson auction results, makes me question whether the sales results were sold significantly below their 2017 Rating Value, since they're not listing the sales figures for those sold properties on the list or is this missing information to be updated soon?

RVs are present on the results page now.

No it's the sales "Sold Price" that we want to see in the auction results, not just the 2017 RV figure which isn't as relevant. There's still about ten supposedly recently sold properties from Barfoot with no sold figure on them? Sorry can't consider them sold without the sold for figures on them.

Seems about 50/50.
There are some bizarre RVs. For example, 5 Tawatawa Street, Long Bay has a RV of 860K, yet it's new, has 5 bedrooms, 3 living areas, views etc.
Way too low.
And sold for probably its correct market value, way above RV.

Agents love these types. Another one to add to the sold above RV column

Fritz I agree with your sentiment
RVs are simply an estimate for rating purposes. Though they provide an indication of value, they are not intended as a valuation for market purposes - the situation you mention is an clear example of this.
Two things to consider,
- the changing number of properties selling above and below RV can provide some (note "some") indication of what the market trend is, and
- we all know that the market peak in March 2017 and the RVs were done soon afterwards, so it is not surprising that some properties are selling below RV - what is probably more surprising is that properties are selling above the 2017 RV market peak indicated estimate.

"what is probably more surprising is that properties are selling above the 2017 RV market peak indicated estimate."

I've looked at ~300-400 sales in the central & eastern suburbs in the past 12-18 months.
Searched listings for properties selling above CV.
Less than 25% have sold >CV.

90%+ of those selling above CV have had a renovation.
Of the rest (a very small number) the premium to CV is very marginal (<2% in almost all cases)

Median discount to CV is ~8% and average is 11%.

Your post contradicts Interest's data where, overall, more houses sell above CV than below CV (by a small margin)
Are you insinuating you have better data?

Two points.

Firstly, I'm curious - where's that overall summary data and for what period are you meaning?

Secondly, only a subsegment of the results listed on Interest actually have both sale and CV prices on them.

6D Brookfield Street sold for 95.6% of RV, not much different to CoreLogic's figure for my home as at 10/11/19. They have since updated their value on my home to 99.2% of RV as at 17/11/19.

Do CoreLogic provide a list of comparable transactions that inform their valuation?

No, it's in the ANZ GoMoney app under the home loan facility. It has the property security description, the estimated property value and a range of +/- 10%. It also gives the date. No other details. ANZ must be dynamically valuing it's security value. I have no idea what calcs or data Core Logic uses.

Another intersting property : https://rwhowick.co.nz/properties/sold-residential/manukau-city/howick-2...

CV of 815000 sold in 2016 for 730000 as a do up from inside and now expecting 1.1million and the reason for high expectation as per the agent is a house with CV of 840000 sold in 2017 for 850000 went for 1310000 (Even if renovated is an excellent price as is also not with land to build additional house) : https://www.barfoot.co.nz/property/residential/manukau-city/howick/house...

Similarly few house lately have gone for better than appraised and expected by vendor and agents so the confidence of RE agent is very high at the moment.

CVs become totally irrelevant on a renovated property.

Even trying to compare premiums to CV on a reno is frought.
The scale and quality of renovations can differ so much.

In saying that, the quality of the reno at 66 Howe and 57 Nelson does look comparable:
https://www.barfoot.co.nz/property/residential/manukau-city/howick/house...

I don't see that premium as any indication of positivity in the market though - no one discloses what they spent on their reno

Scale and renovation too has a limit and 66 Howe renovation demands an extra 350000 (Appox 50% more) is beyond and can only be justified by people involve and benefitting from it and if it happens than market is changing for a budget of 1.1 million have heaps of choise in that area and also independent house with own drive way (this one is shared driveway) besides for that price may build a new free standing house.

66 Howe street sold for 1.1 million under the hammer - indicates that market is strong.

I would think the renovations were around 100k. I'm not an expert though. What do others think?

Here is the advert for when it sold in 2016:

https://rwhowick.co.nz/properties/sold-residential/manukau-city/howick-2...

This sale surprises me too : https://www.barfoot.co.nz/property/residential/manukau-city/howick/house...

For 1.3 Million and near around can get an excellent deal in sunyyhils, farmcove, Buklands beach area with decent land size so this purchase of 1.3million really surprises (50% CG in two years and in this market is .....)

Wow, I can't believe 57 Nelson street sold for that much... The kitchen cupboards don't go all the way to the roof. The wooden panels in the bedrooms aren't very appealing. It doesn't have a garage or fencing. The main land area is also in front of the house which would be difficult to fence off due to the position of the front door. I didn't think this property would be worth more than $1.05m.

could potentially be subdivided

the land area is only 543sqm and they would have to knock down the renovated house to get any use out of the land, so doubtful that the land would be subdivided.

5 Tawatawa street is a brand new build, RV is probably for the land only, or the old property pre-subdivision. Its of no relevance at all.

Thanks for clarifying. I only had a quick look and it looked newish but I didn't realise brand new

Browsing through them, it looks like exceptional properties or well renovated ones have gone above RV. A lot of the ordinary everyday houses seem to be the ones that have gone for under RV.

Which is good for the prospects of first home buyers, as is the recent REINZ data showing the Auckland HPI negative for the last two years in October. Continuing slow sales in Auckland and lower HPI prices.

Fresh off the press (actually from my banking manager, lol) ANZ are matching Kiwibank's 3.39% for 1 year and also offering it for 18 months

And why are they offering that? ( Kiwibank, that is). Because they see mortgage rates rising? I doubt it!
(OK. Here's an alternative answer for you - 'Because Kiwibank/Any bank wants to attract more borrowers with 20% deposit to their book to insulate them from any possible downturn'. How about that? Could be. But how does that leave the bank(s) that have lost their better collateralised customers? Much weaker. So there's another reason for a Mortage War that will lead to much lower rates)

Hi bw, I didn't actually ask any question, I just shared some information. Why are they offering lower rates YOU ask? Well it's quite simply to attract more business.

.

Very pleasing to read of Sylvia Park's 'build to rent's plans
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=122...

can only assume it will be 'rent' to corporates, so they can rent to employees for stability and assurances.. happens overseas quite a bit..

That intersection will be a mess.. I was there before Christmas and it look 25 mins just to turn into Sylvia Park!

thats the reason its called the 'crazy' season

True but the good people at Auckland Council (or AT) hasn't really scoped out the traffic flows and volume in that section of Mt Wellington Highway!

Be a capitalist Fritz buy some KPG shares if you like what they're doing. BTW the only reason that the company exists is to take money off others and make profit and then report metrics such as increase in rent roll on the same tenants/same shops from the year before. And writing up increased building valuations into annual profit. So before you get too hopeful that this will benefit renters, the company can see strong demand for their offering which in turn will benefit shareholders.

can someone confirm if we're still in winter?? the results make me feel so..

I guess the cheap cost of money these days is thawing some of the thinking so far this year. And then there is Donald coming out with wanting negative interest rates https://www.reuters.com/video/2019/09/11/trump-calls-for-negative-intere...

The rubber band will snap at some stage.. And when it does everything will crash and burn
https://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/business/markets/something-has-to-chang...

the pity is, when will it happen...

That's the big question. Like the next Wellington earthquake, it's 'when' not 'if'.
Although I think the probability of a major economic shock in the next 2 years would be much higher than the probability of a major earthquake in Wellington.
The article suggests a shock in the next 2 years. That's consistent with what I have been saying, 2021 or 2022

This (bit passe?)
The shock is going to come soon, and I don't know how anyone can say NZ property will be immune.

Trust the guru and buy under the market value in CHCH !!

Chairman, you have Ben paying attention.
All you now have to do is follow what I have preached, it will get you somewhere.

Who is Ben, and why is he relevant?

Bernanke?

I think the nurse gave him wrong medo for today!

Look Chairman, I was allowed off my meds If I promised to be well behaved.
The only drug I am on now is something to reduce adrenaline, as the excitement of investment in rental property can get me a bit excited.

Ben is Chairman’s new friend!

"Chairman, you have Ben paying attention.
All you now have to do is follow what I have preached, it will get you somewhere."

TM2, it will get me to the bottom pretty quick.. also I think your sarcasm detector needs new set of batteries..

Nah, his sarcasm detector doesn't need new batteries, it'll be fine after a bit of a wind up ;)

Referring to the Auckland market, which always makes me laugh ...the property "spruikers" are the ones that are "holding the cards" (properties) but saying to everyone else ....get out there now and fill yer boots and buy !! ....when they themselves, wouldn't dream of buying at these prices !! ...put ya munny where ya mouth is and get out there and practice what you preach ....buy, buy, buy ....bye bye

Sylvia Park, build to rent apartments?
What on earth does that mean?
So they build apartments and then they rent them out!
Hardly anything new is it?
Have I missed something here??

It hasn't been done much in NZ. Build a block of apartments, retain them as a whole complex, and rent them out.

Obviously the usual model is to develop an apartment block, then sell the individual apartments to individuals.
Build to rent can work well because it's 'build and hold'. The need for a profit margin on each apartment in the traditional model obviously lowers yield. That is avoided in build to rent.

Under the build to rent model, gross yields upwards of 7-8% are readily achievable. Under the traditional model, hard to get more than 4.5%.

These guys NewGroundCapital are doing good stuff with Build to Rent:

https://www.newground.co.nz/#home

Talking of property spruikers. Where's TTP these days? Has he been banned for too much, well you know. :P

I just heard of an auction in my area having an amazing outcome. A pre-auction offer of 5M on a property with an RV of 4.6M sold on the day for 6.11M. Heard this from a not totally official source (my wife) so will try and confirm. Not renovated either. The buyer must be planning to build a few houses as it is quite a large section.

https://www.barfoot.co.nz/property/residential/auckland-city/greenlane/h...

Figures confirmed. It's game on again.

So were these the new owners? NZ Herald article: Accused money launderers barred from ANZ after luxury cars, Remuera houses targeted by police
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/news/article.cfm?c_id=1&objectid=12262884

'It's game on again'. Sounds premature.
That site - huge development potential in terms of site size, zoning (THAB), site width etc. So it's not a typical run of the mill property. The price doesn't look that amazing given you might be able to get 50-70+ apartments out of the site

I think game is on. 66 Howe street went for 1.1 million.

You seem obsessed by that property. I assume you are the agent who sold it, also has the name Richard?
And of course as an agent you will say 'game on'. It's your livelihood, and you need to hype it up.
As the ad says, there is potential to get another house on that site. That's probably why it sold that high.
So again, it's not comparing apples with apples with sites where that may not be possible.

I see what Richard means about Howe St though. I have been advising for a while now for people to buy properties that can easily be renovated.

Not obsessed Fritz but surprised.

On a budget of 1.1 million will have decent choice to choose from with development opportunity but I think market has changed since October and this uptrend is not powered by FHB (FHB are mostly not in million dollar range) but many individuals going for house with a potantial to develop. This is not a new trend but this time is powered by mom and dad investors.

Know few (quite a few) who have just sold their business and instead of buying new business are going for house with development potential and this is spreading like herd mentality. Good or bad only time will tell.

This is a new trend which I think is pushing the market at the moment.

Pretty great block of land to develop. Very unusual for a block that size to be available around there. Nice quiet street with excellent access to quality schools, Cornwall Park, Greenlane Station, Motorway, Great South Rd, etc.

Hard to extrapolate much from such a unique opportunity.

These values are as high or higher than tamaki dr beach suburbs like for like per sqm. I dont get it ZS

It's quite simple. I will explain it to you slowly.
Huge... development.. potential.... in.... very....good.... location.... equals.... high.... land..... value. Get it?
Most of Tamaki Drive sites don't have good development potential, because of lower density zoning, and/or they are apartments or flats in multiple ownership.
You have a pretty poor understanding of property for a property guy.

However the sellers of the property and the agents considered 5M a good price because they accepted that before the official auction date. Unusual for a property to get 22% above reserve.

You are a real weird person Fritz

Look yourself in the mirror.
I think in that one comment you've shown an amazingly poor understanding of property dynamics, for a so called property expert.
You've really shown yourself up as having no credibility to comment on property.

You're a total clown with no clue. You have the nerve to spray established investors with insults not just me and you have no credibility. Retired poppy tried that for a time, he at least owns a home and a decent chunk of cash. The best you can hope for is buying a hut "in a Japanese village for 50k" and waiting for relatives to pass on to grab their assets. You are shameless. But hey if that makes you feel better

In your mind, is insulting others ok as long as you have a property portfolio? That would actually explain a lot about your posts here.

Steady, hold, steady.. keeps holding, tighten up breath, steady - it's balancing act, up or down or steady. Every strong movement, will cause strain to NZ no matter what and long implications to come.

So if interests rates go to 0% will they ever increase?

Some say interest rates will not rise again, cant see that. Just not sure when rates will rise.
What will happen if they rise?
What happens if growth stops, slows or goes backwards, what happens if there is a recession?
How unaffordable can unaffordable houses become?

10 times income, 20 times income when will it pop? Auckland isn't NZ but 1.6 mill says it will impact NZ.

Just sounds like a ticking time bomb. With no forward planning, steady as she goes, we will not go aground, Nervous times me thinks.

Me too, swapacrate.. life is full of calculated risk, mitigation. BUT sadly some championed comments on this RE bull market is just like that, winner take a risk, looser don't take risk, work/study is overrated, Savers is a looser (want to see their facial expression, when grown up told kids.. to save, or do we want to advise our kids to get a loan?) etc etc. - I liked to ponder in Philosophical way, will they (RE bull)? actually willing to fly with Boeing 737max? before the US govt. agreed to ground them, and initial worldwide findings it's related to the factory fault.. after all so far, it's just two crashes right? - If you're Kiwi in OZ, before Qantas ground them.. will you carry the same mentality? - it's happened in Indonesia & Ethiopia,.. OZ is not like them.

This country obsession for RE & immigration stats in expense of slow, steady, real growth of productivity will eventually caused a dent for other things in the social life of NZ society. We are lucky to come from different countries settings, background, outlook and psyche that has a different ways to see things in life. The marvel of interconnected things in the world, don't tell me we're not.