Barfoot & Thompson's auction numbers remained solid last week but they will start winding down this week as the Christmas break approaches

Barfoot & Thompson's auction numbers remained solid last week but they will start winding down this week as the Christmas break approaches

Activity in Barfoot & Thompson's auction rooms remained solid in the first week of December, with the real estate agency handling 171 residential property auctions in the week from December 2-8, compared to 156 the previous week.

However the sales rate dipped a bit, with sales being achieved on 83 properties, taking the sales rate to 49%, down from 56% the previous week.

But that remains in line with the recent trend with around half the properties typically changing hands at the major auctions, sometimes a bit more, sometimes a bit less.

The biggest auctions of the week were on the North Shore (42 properties) where the sales rate was 52%, followed by Manukau (32 properties) with a sales rate of 56%, and the Shortland Street auction on December 4 where most of the 30 properties on offer were from central suburbs such as Orakei, Glendowie, Meadowbank, Mt Eden, Epsom, Remuera and Grey Lynn and the sales rate was 50%.

However auction activity may already be slowing as we head into the Christmas season.

Barfoot has just 101 residential properties on the Orders of Sale for its auctions this week and next week's offerings are likely to be even slimmer.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

Barfoot & Thompson Residential Auction Results
2-8 December 2019
Date Venue Sold Sold Prior  Sold Post Not Sold Postponed Withdrawn Total % Sold
2-8  Dec On-site 6 2   10     18 44%
3 Dec Manukau 16 1 1 14     32 56%
3 Dec Shortland St 1 1   4   1 7 29%
4 Dec Whangarei       1     1 0
4 Dec Shortland St 13 2   13   2 30 50%
4 Dec Pukekohe 3     6 1   10 30%
5 Dec North Shore 15 7   17 3   42 52%
5 Dec Kerikeri 1     1     2 50%
5 Dec Shortland St 3 2   1 1 4 11 45%
6 Dec Shortland St 8 1   7 1 1 18 50%
Total All venues 66 16 1 74 6 8 171 49%

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Before we get 100 plus comments from entrenched views I can share my latest CoreLogic estimate. As of 8/12/19 it was 101.3% of 2017 RV. I believe that is the highest it's been for well over one year.

The latest homes.co.nz estimate for where we are living is within $5k of what the landlord paid for it in Nov 2017. Make of that what you will.

Ours is 5k less than my landlord paid for it in 2016 and it's dropped $100k this year. We're the North Shore.

From memory your CL estimate got down to around 94 percent of CV is that right exexpat. Earlier this year. From the low valuation to the current valuation you must have made a good CG profit so to speak...
Edit: 93 percent low... that makes over 8 percent gain in less than 12 months. Very good. The early buyers could have picked up a bargain in your area and be very happy for it

Thanks Expat. Out of interest what are the highest and lowest it has been?

I recall it being 93% at some stage earlier this year. Doing a quick Google search indicated it was 100% in October 2018. So it's a flat market medium term.

Weekly estimates are just so woefully inaccurate, tbh.
For sh*ts and giggles, request the variance of the estimate.

Never stated otherwise. I have no idea what the calculation method is and you could drive a bus through the range, but it does appear to follow my local market and doesn't cost me a cent. In any case it's my home, not a tradeable asset.

Fair call. If it's free, ya can't go wrong.

Anyone who is in the market as I am for my brother can vouch that market is positive and as have mentioned earlier that those houses that are being sold are normally going for fantastic price - as per or more than the expectation of the vendor BUT those houses that are not being sold even after the auction are struggling unlike the last boom where everything was selling and those unsold house get stuck (unless sell at a discount to their expectation) as another house in the same area has been sold at a premium so want that premium for their house also but are not getting.

So it is a mixed market with upward momentum (No one can deny that). Going forward either houses that are going for premium will lift the house (That are not being sold now) or the other houses that are not being sold now will pull down the houses (That are now going for good price).

So is really wait and watch (As it is many FHB cannot afford now with this upward push, so also have no choice but to hope and wait) and in the absence of any change in NZ and Global ecenomy condition can hope for the later :)

And what do you hope for, to help you find a property for your brother? Higher prices; perhaps more debt for him to take on, or lower ones? (If you haven't put down a deposit yet, I'd guess you are expecting lower ones?)

He is looking for his first home and if he find one within his set budget and he like it, will opt for it - which was possible earlier (atleast felt that was possible) but went overseas for few month on assignment and when came back was hopefull but than the market had changed - Though he wants to move into his own home but is not desperate to do it at this exorbitant prices.

Yes it's certainly a mixed market as you say. The good news for your brother and other FTB's is that the property market isn't going gang busters, with most sales (From what we can see from the latest auction results), are still hovering below the million mark and considering that auctions are meant to fetch the best price for a seller, if FTB's can avoid auctions then there more likely to get a less bloated price.

Expat: from memory you get this through the bank that has/had the mortgageon the property? Which bank is that? Or do all the banks publish estimates against the properties they hold mortgages over?

My mortgage facility is with ANZ. This is visible on the Go Money app next to the facility balance. It gives the property address, the estimated property value on a date they state and the range ($300,000 either way of the estimate). I figure ANZ is dynamically valuing its security.

$600,000 variance of the property value on any given date? How is that reflective of any property that is 'average'?

Variance is $300k.
Range is $600k.

On Expats value of ~2.25mil (by memory?) that's 13% variance..

Quite so. And on a $2 million place, in my opinion, that's indicative of a nervous lender; one who isn't quite sure what's going to happen. A sign of the times.

As of 8/12/19 my property is 149.3% of 2017 RV on Corelogic.

Have you tried look for it's value on homes.co.nz for a comparison?

144% of 2017 RV.

Now the question is can you actually sell it for 144% over the 2017 RV?? Probably not, well at least not to a wage earner unless it's well under 1 million. [̲̅$̲̅(̲̅ ͡~ ͜ʖ ͡°)̲̅$̲̅]

You are not a wage earner CJ, so you could buy the property for over 1m or possibly around 1m. Would that work for you too nzdan?

Well actually I am a wage earner, I work in the tech industry.

It's well under $500k. What I paid for it in 2017 would barely fund the deposit on a $1 million property.

According to Church we will have Auckland prices @ $3M by 2040. By then nurses and teachers will be all on $300K each so all good.

I realise a lot of readers are very much in need of info on where property in their area sits relative to CV.
However, stuff sells below and above CV all the time.
It entirely depends on state of house and buyer numbers interested.
Of course auction is designed to generate competition to get sale price up for vendor.
But auctions only make up 9% of RE NZ listings.
In Hibiscus Coast it is 5%
Most auction interest in Auckland for readers appears to be in Auckland City.
With that in mind, I looked up on REINZ site what is happening there recently.
Short answer is that sales are up on same 3m of 2018, and that level of sales is improving relative to first 7 months of 2019. But comparison of what has sold and prices sold, in Sept/Oct was revealing of v little difference between 2019 and 2018 for those 2 months. Here is data:

Total sales: (2019 v 2018 in each case): 1206 v 1220 (-1%)
Residential only sales: 738 v 672 (up 10%)
Apartments: 254 v 351 (- 27%)
Units: 106 v 100
Townhouses: 80 v 64 (up 25%)

Priced $550 - 750k: 181 v 171
Priced under $850k: 486 v 502
Priced 850 - 1.2m: 286 v 294
Priced $1.2m - 2m: 449 v 439
Priced 1.5m +: 554 v 696

Bedrooms:

2 bed: 324 v 341
3 bed: 396 v 368
4 bed: 241 v 232
5 +: 73 v 79

All in all, there is nothing to suggest much overall movement.

Sales of residential are indeed up 10% on 2018 level.
Auckland City makes up 23% of all auckland sales so is a good barometer.

Auckland 10m total sales were 11.8% below 2018. The 3m level is 9% below.
To me this indicates an improvement recently.
But sales remain below 2018 levels.

If you owned some shares, would the price of those shares or their daily traded volume be more important to you?

I realise that volume gives some indication of liquidity, but for almost all investors share price is far more relevant. For most people volume is pretty much irrelevant.

I'm in the market to buy a house, I don't care how much it will cost me, what I really want to know is how many other houses people are buying.
Oh me too, I'm going to sell my house, I don't care either how much I will get for it, what I really want to know is how many other houses are selling.
Banks: yes we agree, we don't care either how much your house is worth for lending you money, what we really want to know to lend you money is how many other houses are selling.

You've truly opened my eyes. I realise now that last Friday was actually a great day for A2 Milk shareholders. Even though price plummeted, volume was really good. https://ibb.co/mCkcBBy

You know it's always a good idea to have as much information to hand as possible so you can make better investment decisions. As an example; I'm sure most Westpac Investors would have liked to have known what was going on before they made long term investments.

Reuters article: Australia's Westpac faces investor rage after exploitation payment scandal. "Investors will likely call for more scalps at Thursday’s AGM as the company braces for a fine most analysts expect will top A$1 billion ($680 million)". https://www.reuters.com/article/us-westpac-agm/australias-westpac-faces-...

Key word for you: investors.
Key word for me: facts

This article is about auction success rate. It is a short one so I'm sure you could very easily confirm it does not mention prices at all.

With that in mind, I have some questions:

1. If the overall sales rate is useless information, then how would auction success rate be useful information?
2. If the auction success rate is useless information, why did you click into this article?
3. Since you did click into this article, why are you making fun of other people who read it rather than the guy who wrote it, and who writes similar articles routinely?

1. Auction success rates and total sales volumes are very different measures. Why would the relevance of one have a bearing on the relevance of another?
2. Auction success rates aren't useless. I find them quite interesting actually. Not as relevant as price for me though.
3. I was commenting on Mike's fixation on volumes to the exclusion of almost everything else, not auction success rates.

What do you get out of auction success rates, just to be clear?

Interesting to know my chances of success if I were to go to auction at any given time, and very rough indication of how hot demand is relative to supply. What do you get out of them?

"Interesting to know my chances of success if I were to go to auction at any given time"

But auctions are only 9% of all listings. Wouldn't you like to know the chances of selling your property in general?

"very rough indication of how hot demand is relative to supply"

You know what's a slightly less rough indicator? Total sales in comparison to total listings. If only we had a user on this website regularly updating us with that information!

Mike's comment didn't even mention listings. interest.co.nz regularly publishes inventory and 'days to sell' data. But you know what is an even better measure of supply vs demand? PRICE.

Imagine if meteorologists tried to predict tomorrow's weather by looking at only one metric: the current temperature.

Yes, how silly would that be.

Auckland listings peaked 15th November at a level 20% lower than at same time in 2017. Not impressive when it has had 24000 consents meanwhile.

Total sales so far reported for Auckland of residential for November is just under 2000. Listings of houses & townhouses in Auckland in November averaged about 6000

Good info Mike thanks. I still find it odd that it is mainly Auckland that has such a concentration of auction selling. Since Wellington has steadily increased in property value due to them having higher salaries than we do here in Auckland, yet in Wellington they never appears to make any auction sales there?? Or are Wellington's auction results as just not listed on this site?

There is sarcasm and denigration and derision. On other hand there are facts, informative remarks and analysis. Some writers recently seem v concerned with dismissing those with whom they disagree. The level of debate is not enhanced by this. I do wonder why it seems important to some to seek to clear the column of those who do not share their Uber optimism.

There are those commenters who are realistic
that the market is stable and good and then there are commenters who are "uber" pessimistic. By the way mikekirk29 which camp do you fall into?

Hang on, who gets to decide which side is "realistic"?

The side that has no self awareness of a confirmation bias.

Realistic based on facts and a full def of what a “market” is.

Well said.

In my experience people who can't defend their opinion are the ones who dislike debate.
Turning this comment section into an echo chamber where only one kind of opinion is allowed would do no good for anyone.
Economics is full of uncertainties, no one on Earth can predict what's going to happen in a few years time. We all have our more or less educated opinions. I'm happy as long as we are allowed to debate, give and be given a hard time to defend opinions.

Yip, it would be quite boring if it were all one way traffic. I quite enjoying the banter and understanding peoples views from a behavioral finance perspective. Some quite strange links between views/behaviour and causation (like risk aversion of parents etc).

Why my concern with volumes: it shows who can afford to buy and how many. Also shows confidence in economy. When Auckland cannot sell what it sold in 2009 then that is not buoyant or good. Esp when stock has risen a lot meanwhile

Who's to say what the "right" level of sales is? Maybe some of the historical figures you're comparing against were inflated due to excessive speculation or foreign buyers or whatever. I also think the bright-line test is having more impact than you're giving it credit for.

Additionally, maybe there are some good reasons why people hold on to their houses longer now than a few years ago. For example, with the extended period of high immigration that NZ has seen, the makeup of our population has changed considerably. The percentage of young people has presumably changed for starters. Plus we've had an influx of Asian families, who often embrace living with their parents. Maybe these families hold onto their houses for longer?

Bottom line is that volume is only one metric. Good to keep and eye on it, but not a good idea to get too hung up on it.

Anyway, I do find many of your posts interesting so thanks for that. Could perhaps be improved by making (slightly) fewer posts with a bit more/clearer analysis and a more targeted selection of figures. Also, personal request: when writing a negative number please don't put a space between the "-" and the first digit :-)

Things may well be good for a few but being interested in the many, that is not satisfying to me. There is personal gain and societal. As we all have to live in society it helps to be concerned with generic benefit not just individual

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