More properties are being offered at auction and the sales rate is substantially higher than it was at this time last year

More properties are being offered at auction and the sales rate is substantially higher than it was at this time last year

Residential auction activity suggests the market will be much firmer this summer than it was last year.

Interest.co.nz monitored 376 residential auctions in the first two weeks of February (3-16 February), a time when the market is just kicking back into life after the Christmas break.

That was a 16% increase in the number of properties auctioned this year compared to the equivalent two week period of last year (4-17 February). Of more significance was the number of properties that sold, with sales achieved on 198 properties this year, up 57% compared to the equivalent period of last year.

Put another way, the sales rate was 53% this year compared to 39% last year.

Prices also appeared firmer, with 78% of selling prices being above their Rating Valuations (where prices and RVs could be matched), compared to just 43% of sales that were for more than their RVs last year.

It is probably also significant that there was almost no difference between the sales and price ratios in Auckland and those for the country as a whole.

In Auckland the sales rate was 54% in the first two weeks of February this year compared to 53% nationally, and 74% of Auckland sales were for more than their RVs, compared to 78% nationally.

Last year the Auckland market was more subdued compared to the rest of the country. But the latest figures suggest that is no longer the case.

Details of the individual properties offered and the results achieved at the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

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84 Comments

The solution:

Simplest is to scrap existing and failed bank regulation and introduce one simple rule: banks are only allowed to lend (and hence create new credit and money) for transactions that contribute to GDP (ie. not asset purchases). Henceforth mortgages & asset loans only from nonbanks. Link

In order to propose a solution, there must be problem first

The RBNZ claims round two thirds of NZ households have no mortgages. The debt to income ratio changes dramatically when those without mortgages are excluded. Moreover, given the iniquity of the risk weighted asset regulatory capital scheme, around sixty percent of bank lending is extended to leveraged residential real estate investments for one third of households (~$465,000) for each on ave).

This reality is at best unsettling for the debt dependency NZ has developed buying and selling mostly non GDP qualifying residential property assets to each other, and hardly fits in with Mr Orr's new found claim: "There has never been a greater time to make use of accommodative monetary policy for investing in productive assets."

The RBNZ debt to income data comes from banks for the mortgage customers only, which means it already excludes mortgage-free homeowners.

The graph was snipped from the RBNZ FSR for May 2019 - page 8 (14 of 48).pdf

This is the RBNZ DTI page, it is published with the explicit intention of focusing on mortgages and is updated every three months:
https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/c40-residential-mortgage-lending-by-...

Sales in Auckland are picking up due to Sellers becoming more realistic about their selling prices, a lot of which seem to be struggling pass their 2017 RV's at auction. Interesting it's the more affordable properties in areas like Tauranga that are selling well, there still must be a lot of Aucklanders downsizing and moving to sunny retirement areas.

"Interesting it's the more affordable properties in areas like Tauranga that are selling well, there still must be a lot of Aucklanders downsizing and moving to sunny retirement areas"
It makes sense doesn't it CJ. Just dont start using that fact to KICK the previous national govt as you did this week, we are still a democracy (for now) and we allow people their freedom of movement

LOL Strange that you brought that up HW. Yes there are likely to be some Auckland retirees still downsizing in Tauranga as I mentioned.
And here's a reminder of how National's John Key kicked out Auckland resident Landlords a few years ago at the height of the property market, AKL Local Landlords were pushed out to the regions, allowing Foreign Buyers to freely asset strip in Auckland so prices still kept going up, until Labour and China pulled the plug in 2017.

JK got the Reserve Bank to introduce a huge LVR restriction on local Landlords which meant they had to find a 40% deposit if they wanted to invest in Auckland. But JK didn't want to do anything to stop Foreign Buyers did he, which as time has now proven, they were the ones really sending property prices soaring in Auckland. The evidence is all in the attached articles below:-

Interest article: Key doubles down on instruction to RBNZ to move faster on LVRs, despite RBNZ speech saying it will only tighten LVR rules by end of 2016; Key also rejects RBNZ suggestion for migration review.
https://www.interest.co.nz/news/82513/key-doubles-down-instruction-rbnz-...

One news: Auckland's tough lending restrictions set to be rolled out across the country, investors to need 40% deposit.
https://www.tvnz.co.nz/one-news/new-zealand/aucklands-tough-lending-rest...

Better Dwelling: China’s Massive International Real Estate Buying Spree Is Officially Dead
https://betterdwelling.com/chinas-massive-international-real-estate-buyi...

Get real CJ099.

Just a few months ago, you and your DGM mates were telling everyone that the housing market was about to crash.

Not so, it seems. Your forecasts were badly botched.

As it transpires, it's the DGM that has crashed - as is clear for all of us to see.

TTP

TTP the professional liar. What I actually said was that: "People were becoming more realistic about prices, hence why property is now selling ". Don't forget that Auckland has had several years of sales and price stagnation. And how about you PROVE that I said the property market was about to crash this year! Send us the article link I dare you. :)

CJ
You are struggling.
Sellers are not struggling and now being realistic in their prices. The market in the past six months has been in upswing mode and Auckland up 4% mainly achieved over past six months are being flat.
Yes the market not unexpectedly showed downturn when over a period of a couple years they struggled to reach 2027 RV’s. Now 3/4 are surpassing their 2027 RV - that is not “sellers becoming more realistic”.
Your bias make your comments look ridiculous.

P8, Perhaps you should break out the Champers when Auckland's prices finally come out of their 2017 stagnation price levels. :P

P8 2016: Auckland house price increases are not sustainable.
P8 Nov 2016: signs that Auckland market is peaking.
P8 late 2017-18: there will be no market bubble burst
P8 winter 2019: FHB should act as the market seems to be bottoming
P8 Sept/Oct 2019: there appears some upturn in Auckland market
I am interested in looking at where the market is likely to be heading. I am not besotted with Auckland prices obtaining record highs and in fact has recently said I see moderate growth. As always I substainiate those statements by considering drivers current at the time - not conspiracy theories and unsubstantiated claims which both of which seem your forte.

Below are some CJ comments. A mixed bag of accuracy in my opinion but I think its clear he was expecting something major:

by CJ099 | 29th May 17, 6:33pm
Yeah the thing Zach is the drop could be quite significant especially in your neck of the woods. It wasn't that long ago when you could buy a 3 bed house in St Heliers in the high $600k bracket in 2009.
I've been tracking the Auckland market since 2006 as prices here were significantly cheaper and you could get more bang for your buck than the property prices in greater London.
We all know that the massively over inflated house prices are a direct result of overseas investor piling in to the Auckland market over the last ten years (Mainly from China). Now that they're gone there's no one apart from a few celebs and money launders to prop up those prices in the more expensive suburbs.
I did warn you guys back in Jan 2016 when we saw a fore runner of this with the -10% drop in the Auckland market due the new IRD regulations, when Overseas Investors were locked out of the market for three months.
You only have yourself to blame.

by CJ099 | 29th May 17, 8:49pm
Goodness you have a short memory Zack and to a subject that's so close to your heart!
Article: Downturn hits Auckland housing market with prices and sales volumes falling substantially last month
Posted in Property February 11, 2016 - 01:14pm, Greg Ninness
http://www.interest.co.nz/property/79956/downturn-hits-auckland-housing-...
by CJ099 | Thu, 11/02/2016 - 21:21
It's going to drop! You can't have 39% of the Investor market disappear over night without any impact. Wake up!

by CJ099 | 29th May 17, 9:39pm
Argghh.... You are completely missing the point Zach, gloss over it as much as you like! I constantly warned you guys that the market was unsustainable. Once you decouple wages from property values your in "Tulip fever" land and we all know how that one works out. :P
Plus it wasn't just me that warned you and also recognized the risk, lots of others did too.
Don't be such a dumb ass, or I'll rub your nose in it even further though perhaps it's better to let the market do that.

by CJ099 | 29th May 17, 2:40pm
Wow with North shore and Central Auckland falling -$50k a month! This is sounding very reminiscent of the FT article that I posted a few days ago, where the London property millionaires are having to take million pound price cuts to sell in the central suburbs homes.
Well I did try to warn you!

by CJ099 | 28th Jul 17, 9:50am
I would still recommend to First Time Buyers to hold off purchasing your home in Auckland for at least six months to a year. The property market here is clearly falling and there's no point in putting yourself at risk of negative equity that could mean that you would loose your home if the banks aren't able to lend to you if prices dropped significantly over the next year which is looking highly likely.

by CJ099 | 26th Aug 18, 12:08pm
Well think of it this way; if property prices are falling with our wealthier neighbors who have much higher salaries with a stronger economy then ours. Little NZ will continue to bottom out property price wise for some time to come.
DGZ be careful what you wish for as I think you're going to see quite a big drop for those paper millionaires in Auckland. Zachary you might want to stock on those bake beans.
Business Insider article: Australian house prices are falling, and this time the RBA is unlikely to come to the rescue
https://www.businessinsider.com.au/australian-property-house-prices-rba-...
“Given a likely lack of policy easing in the coming cycle, home prices will probably keep falling into next year, seeing the longest downturn in many decades.”

by CJ099 | 30th Nov 19, 7:22am
Wonder how long the mortgage interest rates can keep falling to keep the ponzi scheme going? I'd estimate by this time next year will see mortgage rates of 2% or lower.

LOL Laminar you're becoming even more of a stalker and obsessed with me, then the others. Slow day in the Real Estate Office is it. :)
I noticed you didn't include any of my comments from this year 2020 to back up the supposed claim of a house price of a crash! Ah well you've just proved that TTP is a liar. Thanks and well done! ;)

Well as I say, your claims were a mixed bag of right and wrong but I think it's pretty clear you expected a big decline starting in 2017, which is why I used your 2017 comments. It doesn't really matter what you say about 2020 because your history, like everyone else's, does not demonstrate access to a crystal ball.

Laminar, The market has gone through huge changes since 2017. But all that shouldn't stop people from being allowed to voice their opinions should it, and certainly they should not be stalked, harassed and forced to suffer abuse to try to intimidate people in to not commenting. What is very obvious is that there are a lot of very desperate Real Estate Agents/Investors who will try to bully people off this site if they show the reality of what is happening in the property market. That's why I mostly provide recent article links as evidence to support my viewpoint. :)

You invited the search: "And how about you PROVE that I said the property market was about to crash this year! Send us the article link I dare you. :)".
I was half defending you but I find these claims of, 'I never said a crash, this year'... pretty funny, perhaps technically true, but totally disingenuous. You want the credit for been accurate this year... Well that's not how credit works; you have a history.

P8 Not sure why you're rambling, but it show clear desperation on your part.

Hi CJ099,

You write above, "And how about you PROVE that I said the property market was about to crash this year!"

How about that folks......... CJ099 is now trying to distance himself from the DGM, of whom he has been referred to as "Patron Saint".

Unconvincingly, (to say the least) CJ099 now tries to convince us that he never argued that the property market was about to crash!! So much for CJ099's "leadership" of the DGM......

Would you buy a second-hand car from CJ099?

TTP

LOL That's ok TTP Laminar just proved that you're a liar. And no I don't need to sell second hand cars or even property but clearly you do! :P

The central bank crashed interest rates and temporarily saved the housing market. Adrian Orr was the biggest “Doom and Gloomer”, ... working for the boomer.

From the article: "74% of Auckland sales were for more than their RVs". Suggests to me that "Sellers becoming more realistic about their selling prices" is not the main reason for Auckland sales picking up.

by CJ099 | 22nd Feb 20, 8:54am
Sales in Auckland are picking up due to Sellers becoming more realistic about their selling prices, a lot of which seem to be struggling pass their 2017 RV's at auction.

Quote from the article above: "74% of Auckland sales were for more than their RVs, compared to 78% nationally.
That's almost 3 out of 4 houses selling above RV and you are saying houses are "struggling pass their 2017 RV's"
Do you not read the article you comment on???

Yes I did but did you Yavil look at the actual auction results for Auckland. Here's the quote again from me: "A lot of which seem to be struggling pass their 2017 RV's at auction". Go look for yourself, Here's a few examples of not much capital gains to show after 3 years and sold at auction: -

* 21F St Georges Bay Road, Parnell, Auckland. Rating Value: $1,040,000 (July '17) Sold for: $1,060,000

* 8B Norana Avenue, Remuera, Auckland. Rating Value: $890,000 (July '17) Sold for: $932,000

* 25 Domain Crescent, Muriwai Beach, Auckland. Rating Value: $940,000 (July '17), Sold for: $989,000

* 3A Rota Place, Parnell, Auckland. Rating Value: $1,425,000 (July '17), Sold for: $1,595,000

* 2/1398 Dominion Road, Mt Roskill, Auckland. Rating Value: $880,000 (July '17), Sold for: $978,000

Again, 74% selling above RV means your statement is 25% correct and 75% wrong. Maybe you're happy with that ratio, I wouldn't be.

Indeed , 46 percent of all Auckland auctions did not result in any sale . They also did not sell above the RV

They didn't sell below the RV either.

Likely the users would expect at least the RV, reason why they didn't sell.

One clarification: we're not actually given that measure as a percentage of all sales made. Only those where the two figures could be matched, and we're not told what proportion that is.

Thus it's not correct to interpret it as 74% of sales sold for above RV.

doesnt matter how bad it is out there,virus,drought,tourism tanking,there is always a positive story on real estate.QV figures for my area said house prices ending january year were -0.6% but wait,turn that frown upside down REINZ says +16.6%

Keep up the auction success agents... to the victor goes the spoils .... for a property addict as myself there is nothing better to watch from the sidelines than a bidding war... and good to be a part of, it tests you. Also remember there are other options than just the auction route.

There are in excess of 1,930,000 dwellings in New Zealand. In each of the first two weeks of February, an average 188 homes were auctioned of which 99 per week or about 0.00005 percent of the nations stock exchanged by auction , prior to the auction, on the auction date or some date following the auction date. Interesting.

It must break your property addicted heart to see people sell their properties “spoils” at the same time. You must have mixed emotions when viewing an auction.

Well sorry but I can tell you're not a fan of the auctions. Yes they are tense, yes they're competitive, the successful buyer has to go to a level that's uncomfortable for them but the reward is usually happiness for many years. The successful vendor obviously gets a new opportunity as well but you can't have an auction without vendors... or can you? We have bought through auctions including the house we live in right now. Two others were also in the hunt so I know what it is like. I am very very glad that we did it.

I see apartments are still a risky investment. Here's an interesting one tidy bedroom apartment "freehold"; 5F/100 Anzac Ave, Auckland City. Recently sold for just $50,000! It's 2017 RV is $200,000. Interestingly its 2003 RV was $220,000. Apparently the apartment complex has remedial issues (Probably a leaky building).
Humm they've had a long time to resolve those building issues. Our government should be tougher on not letting these building rot for the sake of the tenants.

"Interesting"

Troll HW, now you're just being weird. No counter argument then to help support your REA buddies. :)

Are you feeling yourself CJ099.

Yes and you still have no counter argument do you. :)

That went right over your head CJ099

An auction clearance rate above 50 percent may reflect desperate sellers willing to get out at any price .

More likely that those hoping to get in and start climbing the property ladder cant wait any longer. None of us are getting any younger.

Hey HW Boomers like you can still downsize to sunny regions like Tauranga. I hear it's becoming one big retirement village. Or there's other affordable places like Palmerston North. :)

Not so, CJ099.

Tauranga is becoming increasingly commercial - and prosperous. It's a thriving area of entrepreneurial innovation.

Even the University of Waikato is making in-roads to the Bay of Plenty, as the region becomes increasingly attractive to younger people.

You need to keep abreast with what's actually going on - and get yourself up-to-speed if you are to make a worthy contribution here.

Regarding Palmerston North, its housing market is booming - as I foresaw many moons ago.

TTP

;)

Really TTP go on then prove it, list those Tauranga and Plamerston North huge companies: As you stated: "Commercial - and prosperous. It's a thriving area of entrepreneurial innovation". So show us the list of huge IT companies moving in there, generating lots of high paying jobs or are you just making stuff up as usual? Please send us the article links because that's what investors need to know.

Don't misrepresent what he said. He didn't mention "huge companies" once. He said "Tauranga is becoming increasingly commercial - and prosperous. It's a thriving area of entrepreneurial innovation."

"Often you only think of Auckland and Wellington as the 'tech hubs' so it was a pleasant surprise to be exposed to such a thriving tech scene in Tauranga."

"Tauranga is humming. Confidence is high as the local economy reaps the benefits from multiple growth drivers. These include continued population growth, a booming construction sector, a strongly performing agricultural sector and record trade volumes and cruise ship visits through the Port of Tauranga."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/bay-of-plenty-times/news/article.cfm?c_id=150...

https://www.marketbeat.co.nz/tauranga-commercial-and-industrial-report-2...

What TTP is claiming is that property sales and prices are increasing in areas like Tauranga and Palmerston North due to increase employment and wages. I say that is not so; Property prices are growing in the regions mostly due to peoples ability to borrow more helped by falling mortgage rates and some people relocating by downsizing from areas like Auckland.

Therefore, TTP should be able to list all these new commercial companies that have recently setup in places like Tauranga and Palmerston North, which is important information that Investors need. Or is he just making false claims as usual.

And that Herald article that you posted about Taurange only talks about small tech companies not anything near a Silicon Valley is it.

Plenty of the growth and innovation is occurring in existing industries and companies (e.g. Horticulture industry, retail sector, port of Tauranga, Waikato Uni etc). Examples of the many successful startups in Tauranga are SwipedOn and Robotics Plus.

And again, you seem to be twisting his statement. Where did he claim “that property sales and prices are increasing in areas like Tauranga and Palmerston North due to increase employment and wages.” An argument can be made for this, but I don’t see where he made it.

Sorry but your last statement makes nonsense of you first statement. Hey though if you're right and the market in places like Tauranga is healthy, not dependent on outside monetary forces. Then the good news is NZ mortgage rates don't need to keep falling to help support property prices. Some how I doubt we'll see much in the way of mortgage rates rise anytime soon.

Your scatterbrain is fighting an imaginary ninja. Where on earth did I say the Tauranga market is “not dependent on outside monetary forces“? This thread is going nowhere, good day to you.

LOL DD, You don't need to be abusive, and I was not quoting you. Do you often think that people are quote you all the time? And then go off in a huff. :)

You're getting as tiresome as TTP, and just as divorced from reality...

Thanks, have bookmarked it, will check it out later.

Visited Tauranga a few months back and it felt like "mini-Auckland". The place was really moving ahead and had a good vibe. Always liked Tauranga and can understand why Aucklanders move there. On the downside, the traffic at peak hour was very Auckland-like!

I can't stand the place. Big city problems without big city benefits. Lacks culture, dining, and diversity. The town centre is dead, the traffic awful.
Nice climate though, and the mount is nice enough.

by Cowpat | 22nd Feb 20, 10:03am
An auction clearance rate above 50 percent may reflect desperate sellers willing to get out at any price .

If it was, most houses would sell at discount to their RV's, as it stands, quote from the article above:
"Prices also appeared firmer, with 78% of selling prices being above their Rating Valuations"

I was quoting Printer8.

- More houses for sale
- Higher clearance rates
- Almost 4 out of 5 houses selling above their RV

A strong market indeed!

"Last year the Auckland market was more subdued compared to the rest of the country. But the latest figures suggest that is no longer the case."

No, just back to normal compared to a weak market last year.

OK, fair enough. "A strong market compared to last year" then

Compared to a really weak year.. sure.
Would be interesting to see how strong it is compared to say 2016 and 2017 for the same weeks to see just how strong it really is.

Well comparing it to 2016 wouldn't be fair either as it was an exceptionally strong year (just like 2018 was a weak year)

Yeah, its almost like you want to look at several years figures to figure out where it lies, relatively speaking. Imagine if someone had suggested multiple years instead of just one for that exact reason...

Go live in Tucson Az , much more affordable
https://www.zillow.com/oro-valley-az/

Tucson is open carry with homicide and violent crime stats 10 x worse than NZ. For 6 months of the year you will be inside (40C to 46C daytime high). It is a significant arterial narco trafficking hub, it is 45% hispanic (that may be a good thing).

I could go on, but I'm sure you'll love it

actually i found it much better than Phoenix, Tucson is higher, cooler, I liked it.

What are the advantages of auctions for buyers?

Generally, I'd say none, they are for the benefit of the seller and the agent. Your offer has to be unconditional (or a waiver arranged with the vendor beforehand), so all your due diligence costs are upfront with no guarantee of actually winning the auction.

But depending on how you look at it, it might be better than a multi-offer/deadline sale situation as you can see what the other guy is bidding so you know what you have to better to win the auction.

One advantage is that it's all over and done with pretty quickly on the day. Has a little more transparency than the tender process, or a competing offers situation, too.

It can be a tricky process for the uninitiated though.

Cannot see how that can be any advantage for the buyer, it also involves that due diligence should be done before actually agreeing on a price with the seller so it is pretty pointless. I'd recommend making an offer if you're interested even if the house is going to auction.

The requirement to do due diligence prior to the auction is definitely a disadvantage from the buyer's perspective, but I don't see that invalidating the advantages. Ultimately whether you like auctions or not is a matter of how you weigh the pros and cons. I happen to quite like them but certainly understand that some don't.

One can minimize due diligence costs by doing plenty of research and only doing due diligence on properties where you have a good chance of winning the auction. Of course it can take a *lot* of work to figure that out. Also, trying to suspend emotions and objectively analyze the situation can be tough given the stakes.

I appreciate the responses, but you've only mentioned one advantage in your first reply. What are some of the others?

I think I gave two (1. over and done with quickly. 2. transparency, i.e. you can see the other offers, how many bidders, etc).

Btw, another aspect of transparency is that you get to see the sale price early. Usually the exact sale price of a house sold by negotiation is not available until settlement. That delay is annoying when one is trying to research the market.

Given the events of the last few days it looks like a full blown pandemic is now unavoidable.

Enjoy fapping over those busy auction rooms while they last.

what events specifically?

I was wondering that too. Looks like there have been some outbreaks outside China, e.g. in South Korea and Italy.

One should be paying more attention to world news.

There are now untracable and uncontained outbreaks spreading like wildfire across Europe, the Middle East and Asia. It's going global and the economic consequences are likely to be dire.

Population can supply a vote to declare if problem do exist, but usually ruling elite can deny if problem exist. Problem exist can be 'toned down' to don't exist, problem don't exist can be 'toned up' to make it exist. Happened everywhere on this planet, Pike River case, Boeing jet design, Alcohol, Sugar, CGT, housing, meth - No drugs or money laundering exist in NZ (hence those multi-million dollar properties transaction)... until on the news later on being confiscated by the Police, no money laundering at the bank, until even Westpact OZ recently admitted guilty as charge. The initial denial always came from faction that has benefited the most.

Well its been nice and sunny.

Of course sales activity is in the up .................there is stock for sale as investors are selling up ahead of all sorts of hurdles this Government has put in place .

The problem is what happens next ?