QV says housing values have already come down from recent highs but it will be several months before we see the full effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on prices

QV says housing values have already come down from recent highs but it will be several months before we see the full effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on prices

Quotable Value has warned that house prices are teetering on a cliff edge and it's no longer a question of if they will fall but how far they will fall.

In its report on the market for May, QV said prices were showing the first signs of fragility as the easing of lockdown rules allowed the market to start returning to normal.

It warned of a gap developing between the prices vendors were expecting to receive and the price buyers were prepared to pay.

"A disconnect in expectations is developing between vendors and purchasers amidst declining sales volumes, suggesting we are on the brink of material declines for the first time in nearly 12 years," the report said.

"The market is teetering on a cliff's edge as we enter winter, the question now is how far will it fall."

The warning appears to contradict the data in QV's House Price Index for the three months to the end of May, which showed the average value of homes throughout the country was $739,539, up slightly from $735,979 in the three months to April.

Average values in the three months to May were also up compared to the three months to April in Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin, suggesting values generally were continuing to rise.

However, QV's report says the Index doesn't yet illustrate the dramatic impact COVID-19 was having on sales volumes.

"The key point we can note from the QV House Price [Index] data this month is the gradual decline in quarterly growth in May, with 14 of the 16 major cities we monitor showing a reduction in the rate of growth since April," QV General Manager David Nagel said.

"This trend is likely to continue as a greater proportion of post-lockdown sales are used in the HPI calculations.

"The data shows the property market was continuing to perform strongly throughout early to mid-March, indicating strength right across the country.

"However, with sales volumes for April and May being down significantly on normal April and May activity, the data is skewed towards earlier stages of the three month period when volumes were much higher.

"When we look at just the April and May transactions in isolation, it shows a definite impact, with post-lockdown sales on average down by around 5% on pre-lockdown levels," he said.

Nagel said it would likely take several months before the full effects of the COVID-19 pandemic would be felt by the real estate market.

"While the data is still sketchy, we're now very confident that the market has come back already from value levels we saw in February and March, particularly in some of the high risk locations that had previously experienced a sustained period of value growth," he said.

"What we don't know yet is the quantum of correction that the market can expect to see as the economy transitions post-pandemic.

"Over the coming months we'll likely see more listings gradually coming on stream after the cushioning effect of the Government wage subsidy comes to an end and bank mortgage holiday periods expire.

"Unfortunately this will be when the full impact of the pandemic will be reflected on real estate values," Nagel warned.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

QV House Price Index May 2020
Territorial authority Average current value 12 month change% 3 month change %
       
Auckland Area       1,086,223 5.4% 2.7%
Main Urban Areas          847,497 7.2% 2.4%
Wellington Area          787,288 11.4% 1.6%
Total NZ          739,539 7.7% 2.4%
       
Far North 492,137 10.7% 0.9%
Whangarei 586,665 7.9% 4.4%
Kaipara 577,135 5.6% 2.7%
Auckland - Rodney 984,069 2.5% 2.1%
Rodney - Hibiscus Coast 962,786 2.7% 2.2%
Rodney - North 1,005,310 2.3% 2.0%
Auckland - North Shore 1,257,549 6.6% 3.6%
North Shore - Coastal 1,433,058 6.0% 3.8%
North Shore - North Harbour 1,213,823 5.9% 1.9%
North Shore - Onewa 1,025,011 8.6% 4.9%
Auckland - Waitakere 857,957 5.5% 3.0%
Auckland - City 1,285,679 6.2% 2.6%
Auckland City - Central 1,120,273 6.2% 2.2%
Auckland City - Islands 1,139,027 2.6% -3.5%
Auckland City - South 1,150,720 7.2% 2.7%
Auckland_City - East 1,621,782 5.6% 3.4%
Auckland - Manukau 937,860 5.1% 2.7%
Manukau - Central 722,671 4.6% 3.1%
Manukau - East 1,198,734 5.6% 1.9%
Manukau - North West 819,547 4.9% 3.2%
Auckland - Papakura 723,750 2.3% 1.0%
Auckland - Franklin 688,500 2.2% 0.9%
Thames Coromandel 820,759 7.9% 4.3%
Hauraki 461,644 9.2% 3.4%
Waikato 525,823 6.3% -2.0%
Matamata Piako 504,510 4.4% 0.6%
Hamilton 628,992 7.5% 1.0%
Hamilton - Central & North West 590,005 9.3% 1.3%
Hamilton - North East 774,291 6.0% 1.4%
Hamilton - South East 585,008 8.3% 1.1%
Hamilton - South West 557,493 7.1% 0.1%
Waipa 637,689 11.6% 1.9%
Otorohanga N/A    
South Waikato 322,854 24.7% 15.8%
Waitomo 246,397 4.6% 3.7%
Taupo 569,868 9.9% 3.7%
Western BOP 707,391 4.7% 2.7%
Tauranga 792,643 6.9% 3.2%
Rotorua 517,916 9.0% 0.0%
Whakatane 515,250 9.5% 0.7%
Kawerau 295,923 13.9% -2.4%
Opotiki 369,224 13.8% 1.4%
Gisborne 434,358 24.3% 4.2%
Wairoa N/A    
Hastings 593,522 14.2% 4.6%
Napier 611,969 9.9% 4.1%
Central Hawkes Bay 405,052 7.2% -1.0%
New Plymouth 507,023 9.7% 0.6%
Stratford 322,034 14.5% 1.2%
South Taranaki 285,157 17.9% 6.7%
Ruapehu 259,370 21.7% 3.6%
Whanganui 370,057 25.0% 5.6%
Rangitikei 285,094 23.2% -1.7%
Manawatu 466,009 21.0% 2.6%
Palmerston North 509,859 15.3% 1.8%
Tararua 282,279 22.0% 2.5%
Horowhenua 439,748 20.6% 4.7%
Kapiti Coast 669,337 12.0% 2.8%
Porirua 692,364 16.7% 3.1%
Upper Hutt 633,343 13.5% 1.9%
Hutt 688,394 17.7% 3.2%
Wellington City 894,710 7.9% 0.7%
Wellington - Central & South 886,705 8.3% 0.2%
Wellington - East 964,454 7.9% 2.0%
Wellington - North 817,550 7.6% 0.4%
Wellington - West 1,016,824 8.7% 0.5%
Masterton 426,012 11.5% -0.4%
Carterton 475,628 9.6% 0.9%
South Wairarapa 583,811 15.1% 4.7%
Tasman 629,768 4.5% 1.0%
Nelson 658,374 5.4% 0.7%
Marlborough 515,394 6.9% 0.7%
Kaikoura      
Buller 208,475 7.8% -2.7%
Grey 228,338 5.0% -3.0%
Westland 277,150 9.7% 4.3%
Hurunui 398,995 2.8% -3.0%
Waimakariri 463,281 3.4% 0.6%
Christchurch 517,376 3.7% 1.0%
Christchurch - Banks Peninsula 547,999 5.0% -0.1%
Christchurch - Central & North 605,070 3.0% 1.4%
Christchurch - East 394,006 4.4% 1.4%
Christchurch - Hills 701,439 2.8% -1.3%
Christchurch - Southwest 491,701 4.0% 0.9%
Selwyn 564,650 1.7% 0.7%
Ashburton 374,168 4.2% 2.1%
Timaru 392,001 5.5% 1.5%
MacKenzie 594,010 8.9% 6.8%
Waimate 290,466 13.1% 0.5%
Waitaki 352,206 9.6% 1.6%
Central Otago 597,205 13.9% 3.5%
Queenstown Lakes 1,218,418 3.0% 0.5%
Dunedin 552,475 21.1% 4.2%
Dunedin - Central & North 562,304 18.6% 3.1%
Dunedin - Peninsular & Coastal 492,355 20.4% -0.3%
Dunedin - South 539,072 23.4% 5.8%
Dunedin - Taieri 577,302 21.7% 5.4%
Clutha 290,886 26.8% 13.5%
Southland 355,928 13.2% 0.8%
Gore 279,245 18.2% 4.4%
Invercargill 350,019 16.8% 2.0%
       
Auckland Area           1,086,223 5.4% 2.7%
Main Urban Areas               847,497 7.2% 2.4%
Wellington Area               787,288 11.4% 1.6%
Total NZ               739,539 7.7% 2.4%

 

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167 Comments

24
up

Bad news is good news financially, but good news is bad. Just watch.

Covid lockdown has passed, but the bill is on the way.

Oh, and 2008's bill got lost in the mail. It will be delivered soon.

11
up

It's not just us....

Mortgage approvals slump 80pc according to Bank of England...sees the biggest monthly fall in house prices since 2009

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/house-prices-fall-sinc...

Listings rise as older housing stock fails to sell

https://www.afr.com/property/residential/property-listings-rise-as-older...

46
up

This may not be so bad. Benevolent landlords will be able to snap up properties from distressed vendors and in turn house them in their former abodes gratis for as we all know landlords amass property out of pure Christian kindness. This will allow the former owners to weather the storm.

It seems ridiculous and unprofessional to write, "The market is teetering on a cliff's edge .."

34
up

Even though it is true?

10
up

It's not literally true as there is no "cliff". It is a metaphor and a false one. When things fall off cliffs they get all smashed up. If your car falls off a cliff it becomes complete scrap not just losing 25% in value. Therefore it is a silly and incorrect metaphor to use. Perhaps they could say about to roll down a gentle slope as that would be a closer analogy.
I guess you could say your equity fell off a cliff, haha.

Does that graph look like this?

https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/EC4F/production/_106559406_l...

No it does not! I rest my case.

You repeatedly compared Auckland to Elysium so clearly you're ability to visualise non related ideas isn't impaired - but perhaps it is?

Yep looks like a cliff to me!!!

Many things fall off cliffs but don't smash. They just fall quickly after accelerating.

24
up

House prices are about to roll down a gentle grassy slope chasing a wheel of cheese ? Hows that !!

Ever had a go on one of those vertical drop slides? Really scary on the way down but magically scoop you up at the end and its really fun.

Now I'm smiling. It would be nice if every housing-market article included this metaphor, not the nosedive/cliff one.

To be honest a scary controlled drop of house prices would be fun for the thousands of kiwis that don't yet own. The multiple-property owners will cry and wet their nappies as we go, the ones of us with a single home will panic when someone cries "EQUITY!" but if we realize equity is a meaningless concept, we would be ok. House value are an imaginary idea invented by the media, RE agents, and collective hysteria. Therefore equity is the same, minus what you owe. What matters is how much salary you have available to pay back that loan.

"To be honest a scary controlled drop of house prices would be fun for the thousands of kiwis that don't yet own."

This would be true, but for the real likelihood that they drop due to a massive slow-down in the economy. If employment and economic activity were humming along, and prices just fell incidentally, that would be fun...but I doubt that's what we are going to see.

18
up

As usual you have it back to front. The slow down is due to massive crazy high prices, not declining. Why anyone can think that having to pay more and more to house oneself when wages are stagnant makes for a great economy is beyond me.

Not to disagree with your point about crazy house prices and affordability. But keep in mind that construction houses is an economic activity and it must be economically motivating for people to do it.I have no idea what is a fair price, but it is obvious that house prices and land prices in specific can decline quite a bit and construction still being viable. But with other cost inputs, there is a limit to how much house prices can drop before building new houses becoming infeasible economically. Also, with a prospect of further house price reduction, who will build?
Off-course if the outlook is more houses than people (i.e. a reduction in population of already appropriately housed people), this will not be an issue at all. But if the reverse is true, it will have other negative longer term implications. Unless house building becomes a non-profit activity (that will be undertaken by government). Again, this may not be a bad thing if government takes this on and that the cost to tax-payer is not prohibitive (a way to look at that is to compare the net present value of all housing subsidies paid to beneficiaries over their life time with the present value of cost of building a house (adjusted for all the potential social benefits that may come with a house ownership), if comparable then why not?

Good point. The supply-demand curve is a bit complex in the housing case, but the willingness to pay high prices is necessary to keep construction going. Not quite sure how much is the land price however - if a construction company forecasts 20% increase in sales prices over 4 years, how much of that disappeared to land prices?

It's not literally true as there is no "cliff"

Indeed, it's a metaphorical cliff! Speaking of which, here's the latest all important RBNZ C5 data. Notice how peak-to-trough GFC took 2 years. The initial impact of coronavirus appears to dwarf the GFC in terms of the rate of change. Time will tell regarding severity. No wonder the guys at the RBNZ are pulling their hair out.

Depends on the grade of the slope and the difference in height from the top to the bottom...hope it’s a big one lol

Yes we can't handle the truth. We need rainbows and unicorns!

If you own one house and live in it the worth of it is irrelevant. If you move, sell and buy on same market price makes no difference. Multiple house owners will take the knock but probably wont hurt as most started buying houses years ago. Recent buyers? Depends on equity wether one survives or not.

It's not irrelevant if you want to move/buy/sell, even in the same market. The gaps change. Your equity might have vanished in which case you can no longer buy. etc.

The best time to upgrade when already owning is a declining market, not rising.

Thats true unless the decline has put you in negative equity. Then you can't sell as you will need to stump up the shortfall to the bank. You are stuck with it unless you stop making payments, then all hell breaks loose.

Even if you're not in negative equity, a reduced equity position could alter your ability to sell and upgrade. A declining market might be a good time to upgrade, if you have enough equity to withstand the reductions. So yes it might be good, or it might be bad, depending, but it's definitely not irrelevant.

The best time would be the bottom of the market.

A declining market might be the best time if you were planning to leave a gap between selling and buying.

I dunno about that, so many kiwis base their net worth ( and self worth) on the back of their only forever appreciating asset

"If you own one house and live in it the worth of it is irrelevant."

Retirees who are looking to downsize (before property prices recover) and use the remaining proceeds for their retirement may find their retirement fund got significantly smaller ...

When bad news affects the masses everyone has a story

Once house prices have gone down, they'll rise again.......

And the real surprise will lie in the strength of the recovery.

TTP

Really ? You dont think we will see the folly of our ways ? I know a lot of people dont like shares on here beacause the naughty 80's crash burned them.

Real estate agent troll

Image also in the headline sums it up.

Is the image also ridiculous and unprofessional...... (Just like pointing a handicap of a handicapped person is rude)......Though universal truth in current situation.

The image is fine as it is simply graphically represents QV's silly statement with a silly image.

@Zachary Smith
Quote from Colonel Jessep "You can't handle the truth! Son"

Cliff edge is extreme. I like how the Florida realestate agent in the movie The Big Short described the housing market "Its in an itsy-bitsy little gully right now, thats all".

No, what's ridiculous and unprofessional is the RBNZ dropping interest rates to boost prices, and the entire property industry (agents, REINZ etc) and mainstream media (Herald, Oneroof) getting us into this position through years of vested market sentiment & only positive news stories on property.

Like this beauty: https://www.nzherald.co.nz/property/news/video.cfm?c_id=8&gal_cid=8&gall...

NZ needs diversification of assets classes.

Read the headline... well, duh, if that is news to you, you've been maintaining the wrong sort of bubble.

24
up

What shots are left to fire, will depositors pay others to borrow their money, tui. Firehose immigration, foreign sales, and rates at levels never discussed in economic text books, are all done. What's left to protect the stupid house prices....perhaps everyone's wages will double. Not likely as that will equal bankruptcy for most. Investment in automation will happen first and that equals less jobs making this even worse.

A fine mess central monetary policy and attempted bank debt enslavement has brought us. Is it finally time to take our medicine?

14
up

There must be some way we can continue to live up large and pass the bill to following generations, surely???

Just keep renting out your beautiful holiday and central city homes to the foreign Uber rich, achieving $10k per week rentals plus has been happening for years in NZ

Many business will now fast track automation/AI to slash costs to survive this downturn

Tell us something new.

QV also noted in RNZ radio interview this am that a gulf is opening between buyers and sellers, they expect low sales numbers for a few months below sellers adjust to the new normal....

Comparative sales seem down 5% already but caution the sales numbers are very low.

We are going to be down 15% by xmas.

23
up

Still seems odd to me that a 15% fall is seen as an unlikely dooms day scenario for many on here. Yet the Wellington area, for example, is up 11.4% in 12 months and they don't bat an eyelid.

its just the start mate.

14
up

In a sane reality that sort of rise in 12 months should be a doom scenario. Morally bankrupt leadership has made virtue of vice.

It's not much different to the rental market, only slower.
Many of the Auckland rental properties on Trademe that I was monitoring reduced their asking rent, but it usually took at least 2 weeks before they did.

I'm renting a place for $4k a month and the German couple next door are paying $44k for the same house. Not a typo. Advertised prices can be negotiated down a little bit at the moment!

$44k? per month? Even assuming that is an airBnB type nightly rate for a decently nice place it works out to~$1450 per night.

You what?
If,you are paying $1k per week why aren’t you owning?
The next door neighbour is on something if he is paying in excess of $500k per annum

Why would the owner let to you at even less than 10 percent of what he COULD get.
ME I will have 22 litres of fuel
GAS CO no problem that's 44 dollars thanks.
GERMAN Customer: I will have 22 litres of fuel for my bmw
GAS CO no problem that's 450 dollars thank you very very much please come back soon and bring all your friends with you.

15
up

Everyone knows what is coming

You cant just take $50B p.a. out of an economy our size and expect to keep your housing bubble floating.

A fair chunk of that $50B filters its way into housing via AirBnB, student accommodation and rents and mortgage payments from those that were employed in tourism and international education.

Until we open the borders again the property market is is deep trouble unless the government can find a way to prop it up

Where does the 50B lost come from, and does that include the money that won't be spent overseas by NZ tourists to other countries, who may spend it here?
If the risk of Covid is allowed back in, then other businesses will suffer. Far lass people in shops and restaurants. If we eliminate it locally, then shops and restaurants can operate normally.

As the market drops, if it drops, people will start buying. If the housing shortage people are right, there will be no drop, or very little, in most Kiwi housing markets. If wrong, they will plunge. But how long will first home buyers hold off on watching others buy properties for less than they can afford before they come in to the market and reset the new normal market price? Awfully interesting.

Also remember that banks are lightning up credit as property falls, hence any mortgage will be subject to a re examination of a borrowers ability to pay / job security etc, and the bank will require an independant valuation from their own valuer... (which may stop finance occurring at all).

It all points to a slow train wreck.

Yes. And isn't it odd to have a market (in this case, housing finance) with a super low price (<3%) but the sellers also getting reluctant to sell (banks getting twitchy about lending). Smacks of a manipulated market. Normally low price means "please everyone come and take this off me".

I think banks willingness to lend will be a major factor too, it's not just a case of people wanting to buy, its whether banks will facilitate that.

If the banks carry on lending as they have been, I don't think the prices will be down by much. If they tighten, it could be a much bigger correction. At the very least banks will be concerned about job stability which is going to reduce the potential pool of borrowers in the short term.

Banks will be forced to tighten if prices start falling as nobody will know for sure where the bottom of the cliff actually is. Its going to take a while for everyone to get their heads around prices falling, its just not in the Kiwi psyche because of the "House prices always go up" mentality to date.

A tiny piece of anecdata - we have been given approval in principal to buy a second property using the equity from our main home, so long as the whole stays within 80% LVR. The second property could be 100% and potentially interest only - no issues apparently.

Second property is primarily to help out family and my job is relatively stable in Healthcare.

The banks can supply the credit, BUT if the buyers do not buy, then the credit goes nowhere. This will occur for several reasons - buyers will hold off now expecting to see the property cheaper tomorrow and secondly, loss of job security on a wide scale. So provide all the credit you want, but that doesn’t mean it will be end up in housing.

31
up

I'm not convinced about the housing shortage theories. I've driven around Auckland and there appear to be thousands and thousands of empty houses.

What we have is single/couple owners deciding/decided that they want/ed to own 5, 10 , 15 properties so there was the appearance of a shortage and turned previously owner occupied homes into rentals or tax free stores of wealth. So you end up with FHB's competing with landlords for the same house which increased demand - hence our home ownership rates have been plummeting. If those landlords stayed home and only the FHB's showed up to buy the house..you have less demand -question is..how much of our country do you want to turn into serfs before we have the equivalent of the French Revolution?

17
up

There's never been a housing shortage (just a shortage of affordable houses), even Ashley Church admitted this in a piece he ran a few months ago.

do you mean self-agenda Ashley the unqualified property expert ?

If you think about it, the root problem is greed.

What would QV know?

10
up

I normally trust the slick back hair RE boys rather then QV, they are just so desperate at the moment...

12
up

The NZ housing bubble is definitely in a precarious state with a lot of parallels to the Irish situation in 2007. Dublin apartment prices fell 62% over three years and it's not hard to imagine the same thing happening in Auckland. Mass defaults on commercial property lending could very well be the catalyst to set things off. Investors should be looking to de-leverage right now.

NZers will not live in 33sq m sh&^boxes....

its all students and migrants

13
up

That's what adds fuel to the impending crash.

Or to put it another way: at what price would kiwis live in 33m^2 shitboxes?

Rubbish, quite the opposite, people should be investing if the no.s are right!

TM2, only when the mortgagee sales start in significant numbers, and unfortunately we might see a lot of that this time.

Do you really think we will? My inkling is that would be a last resort only. And though the banks will suggest, perhaps quite strongly, that their clients sell to recoup some losses before negative equity hits, they'll be a bit flexible on allowing a sale under the equity threshold for downgrading/upgrading.

The worst case for the banks would be to suddenly find themselves with a loan book full of properties that have to be marked to market below their capital holding requirement.

MI, "that would be a last resort only", yes but I think we'll get there this time. Sure, the first thing the govt and banks have done is to try and give people with big mortgages a break, but that can't go on forever. It's certainly cheaper to do that than have to bailout banks when their over extended mortgage books hit the fan. Even if they allow masses of people to turn to interest-only loans, that only kicks the can down the road a bit.

Will all the doom and gloomers stop commenting about the housing market if there are not all these mortgagee sales?
I will guarantee that with interest rates being as low as they currently are and into the future, there are going to not be many mortgagee sales at all!
It is cheaper to own than rent now in general, and if home owners need to sell it will not be pressure from the Banks to sell them up.
People need to live somewhere so they won’t be selling due to not being able to afford the payments rather from business that has struggled due to the over reaction from the government in having the extended lockdown.
If you are expecting all these properties with “mortgagee” on them, you are going to be very disappointed!

Heres what I think. Wait till the wage subsidy runs out. Wait till the mortgage holidays are over.

It wont happen overnight, but it will happen.

Even in non housing world, the May bounce back was pretty solid, we were up 60% on last years May. I am extremely pessimistic about future sales. Last month was one out of the box, I cant see it continuing.

"I will guarantee that with interest rates being as low as they currently are and into the future, there are going to not be many mortgagee sales at all!
It is cheaper to own than rent now in general, and if home owners need to sell it will not be pressure from the Banks to sell them up."

Interesting.

Will be interesting to monitor those mortgagee sales statistics over the next few years (as mortgagee sales take time to work through the system) :
1) first comes lower household income (unemployment, lower wages, salary cuts, etc), then
2) cashflow stress, where other assets are sold for cash (extra car, boat, etc) and where the borrower may then ask the lender for mortgage payments to be reduced or deferred), then
3) the reduced mortgage payment period ends, or LVR cap being breached, (as mortgage payments are deferred and added to mortgage balance) then
4) comes attempted sale by owner, and if the owner doesn't accept a lower than desirable price (as this may be insufficient to fully repay the mortgage balance)
5) the bank gets involved ...

For those borrowers currently on wage subsidies, they're currently not at stage 1 yet. They might reach stage 1 after the wage subsidy ends.
For other borrowers, they might be currently in stage 2. Then the mortgage payment deferrals will expire ...

Even if it is cheaper to own than rent, try telling that to the bank when you don't have a job or a deposit and see how far it gets you.

THE MAN 2
"I will guarantee ....." . What's the worth of the GUARANTEE?? Even my bank deposits do not have a Guarantee!!

“The Man” if he guarantees something, you can rest assured it is gospel!

It's something.

"It is cheaper to own than rent now in general"

While that may or may not be true in your beloved CHCH, it certainly isnt true in any of the major cities on a like for like basis, or across the nation as a whole. Read the table man. Median house price, less deposit = large loan. Large loan plus rates, insurance and maintenance outstrips rent in many many places.

Yeah, I rent in AKL and looked at buying late last year. I was going to be making mortgage payments on a 25 year term around x1.5 my rent.

Is it still cheaper to own than rent if you factor in potential capital losses?

Is there any point spoiling the 'gloom party' conference by disagreeing with the majority of others here today. Then being swamped with negative comments. Yeah Nah. Enjoy your day men (and ladies)

27
up

The possibility of affordable housing for more Kiwis is nothing to do with gloom. Quality folk should be in favour of greater and broader opportunity for more Kiwis.

26
up

Falling house prices = doom and gloom if all your wealth is in property. It has nothing to do with the stability and optimistic future that a general fall in house prices would have on the country as a whole.

So in the end the doom gloom thing is really a matter of me and my property wealth vs what is best for the country as a whole 5, 15, 30 years from now. Who cares about the future of the country? The landlords...doubt it...they just care about the value of their portfolio so want kiwibuild to fail and will label anyone who wants a better future for the country a DGM. Bit sad really.

IO, gloom if your wealth is in property???
Couldn’t be more happy to have most of our wealth in property in Christchurch, where our yields on average are over 9% on purchase price, our costs have dropped hugely and safety in the knowledge that prices will not be dropping.
A roof over ones head is a necessity and when you can own for less than renting in ChCh why people believe that housing prices are going to drop is fallacious.
Article in the ChCh Press paper this morning says how many first home buyers are buying at the moment and prices are going up!

11
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Yes its all about me and my portfolio. Thanks that helps those who are getting left behind and who tax payers will need to continue to support.

IO, this site is about “helping you make financial decisions” according to its slogan!
If people read this site for the last 10 years, then they Would still not own a property as many have continually stated that house prices would’ve dropped massively and the truth of the matter is quite the opposite.
What “the man” states is that they should not be following the advice of these people who have not had any experience in investing or buying property!
Property investing is not for everyone as they don’t want to get ahead financially in life, and would rather have the taxpayer contribute to their lifestyle financially!
What I can guarantee is that anyone can improve their lifestyle if they want to enough and learn from people that are out there successfully investing!!
Those that are being left behind are those that are not prepared to go forward with their lives.
The thugs that are looting and being aggressive in the United States are mainly these people, who are frustrated that they don’t have the same quality of life and opportunities that others have got!!
It is only a small percentage but it is a large number of people!!
It has nothing to do with rascism in the U.S. or there wouldn’t be the looting etc.

And what do you think would happen if everybody were to decide to become a property investor? Can you not see that a functioning society could not exist if this were to occur? (rhetorical question, I know that you can't). How anybody can not see the moral bankruptcy in having others pay for their properties is beyond me. Being a landlord is doing nobody (but yourself) a service.

Got no problem with everyone being a landlord!
Why would that be a problem!
What a load of rubbish that a landlord is morally bankrupt!
Anyone that provides someone with a service and makes a profit is morally bankrupt?
Many landlords that provide housing to tenants actually subsidise the cost of the house provided and you are saying that they are morally bankrupt?
Wouldn’t think so!!!!

I suppose everyone could own one house but rent the house next door (off the neighbours who own that and so on). So in theory everyone could be a landlord. Not clear what the point of that would be though.

And expert in property and the racial divide in the US? Does your oracle of knowledge know no bounds?

For someone that wants to snap up all the deals in CHCH, it's certainly bizarre you spend an inordinate amount of time talking it up.

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TM2, that (property) Kool-Aid is making you think more clearly. Here, drink some more !

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He knows more about the housing market than QV does. We are so lucky to have him commenting on this site. The reality is that it is early days. As the wage subsidy finishes more people will be laid off. As time goes by more businesses will just shut their doors for good. In the meantime my modest kiwisaver account is back to where it was before Covid 19 appeared on the scene. I recall the Boy telling us with glee how the share markets were plummeting. People like him and the media certainly put panic stations into the people who changed their kiwisaver accounts into conservative positions. They will never get those lost funds back whereas those who held their nerve are back to where they started or close to it. He is a one trick pony who only buys as is where is dungers in Christchurch but he is an expert in every other area of investing. Speaks for itself really.

Excellent post gordon you're like a TM2 heat seeking missile or a sniper trained on his every move. When you see the door open or the grass rustle then you shoot him dead.

Lol, you are my shadow Gordon, I should be flattered.
Gordon, one trick pony towards my own investing into property yes, but we do have much invested thru financial advisors but not from our own investment.
Do,I know more than QV about property in ChCh?
Of course I do and this will play out in the next few months!
That challenge to you is still there Gordon, but of course you have not got the guts to take me up on it, have you???

But your comments are never limited to Christchurch. You talk about property in general and about it being what everyone should do everywhere. ChCh has 8% of the population Man.

QV data for ChCh city, Waimakariri and Selwyn prices have gone up just 4% in 3 years ended April 2020. That's pretty poor. Every share fund will have outperformed that. In fact, a 3 year TD taken in April 2017 was paying 3.8% PER ANNUM, so with compounding more than 3x gains on your investment.

Give it 3 months and I am sure you portfolio of properties will be dropping just like every other area of NZ just wait till the billions of funny money dries up.

ChCh won’t drop Becnz, and even if I was wrong, why would it worry investors with great returns?.
Any drops will bring even better opportunities

"why would it worry investors with great returns"

1) Liquidity needs
2) Deleveraging
3) Reducing debt service ratios

That doesn’t make sense CN!!!!!
If you have properties that are giving investors returns of say 5% and with tax savings and interest rates at 2.5% approx. why on earth would you want to deleverage or reduce debt servicing???????
Yes if you need money to prop up a struggling business then yes, but why would you if you had a business that could trade out?
If you had a business that wasn’t viable, then you would be better to bail out!
If I had a property that wasn’t paying its way, then I would be offloading it however interest rates would have to be exponentially higher than they currently are and likely to be ever again!!!!

"That doesn’t make sense CN!!!!!"

That comment is entirely understandable.

This is because you are viewing the world from your own personal perspective and your own set of financial circumstances.

Others are in very different financial circumstances. Since you are unable to see what financial circumstances can lead to selling down a positive cashflow property portfolio, it is outside your realm of possibilities. I previously highlighted the struggling business example for you - that was how you became aware of it. There are many more for you to discover for yourself - don't want to spoil the fun of the treasure hunt for you.

You might need to leave some large, fluorescent, pebbles on the trail for him to follow that treasure hunt. No torch or compass so easily lost.

And what if the tenants up and leave and mass unemployment causes rent arrears, 'double bunking', flight from the city....
It's only 5% yield IF the rent is being paid. Ask commercial landlords.

Remember the opening up and fastfood joints all backed up down the road well that was all over after 2 days just like the mugs paying top dollar today they will soon dry up and then the fun begins with buyers who will pick up a house a realistic price to reflect the new economy.

Boom

Remember the opening up and fastfood joints all backed up down the road well that was all over after 2 days just like the mugs paying top dollar today they will soon dry up and then the fun begins with buyers who will pick up a house a realistic price to reflect the new economy.

Yea I agree, however it depends on the price of avocados this coming season as to whether FHBs can afford a house.

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I own property but welcome a correction, it will allow people to trade up/down vs not being able to afford to more up the ladder, it will allow people in AKL to buy a house with 5 TIMES debt to income (after a 50% fall)... all good things.

Rather than negative equity financially ruining thousands of owner-occupiers, we could also improve most of those things if we just paid better wages in the first place. House prices falling will do nothing for the big issue in the Kiwi economy: people aren't paid well, and everyone from the Govt to ticket-clipping distributors have their hands in your wallet before you've even been paid.

The 85 Auckland council staff on over $250,000 appear to be doing ok. Not sure what they do but it must be very important and difficult.

They are the expert of manicuring!

How about we do both.

Well I guess being paid well is all relative isn't it. It seems the largest cost a lot of households have is either rent or mortgage. So, if both of those become a lot less due to house price's being less, well the cost of living comes down so one doesn't need to earn the big bucks to be able to pay either mortgage or rent.

yeah probably best to wait for it to bottom out before you resume spruiking :)

Time will tell a drop of some level is expected by most all would agree. Going against this is agents I have known for a very long time on the North Shore, Matakana and Kapiti asure me it's a seller's market at the moment, all will be revealed over the coming months.

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No offence but it probably isn't the best idea to accept assessments from people who have vested interests in continuing the property ponzi.

We’ll see wha happens. If you are going to panic, best to panic early.

I feel slightly relieved that the place I bought in November last year has possibly gone up about 5% in value.
I think I bought it at least 5% below fair market value at the time too. So if there's a 10-15% drop in Auckland, like I think there will be, hopefully I won't be smashed.

;)

Well if you sell that will cover the RE fees if you're lucky.

Have they gone down then ?

No intent of selling, for a long time.

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All those people on here for the past few years saying NZ property was not over valued, NZ is different, and the very high price to income ratios are justified, are about to learn a few hard truths about property markets.

A reminder. These are some reasons given in the mainstream media, property market commentators, property market promoters, bank lending promoters masking as bank economists, real estate agents, property market mentors & other sources as to why property prices in Auckland will not fall by much and that there is a low probability that property prices will fall dramatically:

1) over the past 50 years, house prices in Auckland have averaged 7.2% per annum (or commonly referred to as house prices doubling every 10 years). This trend can be expected to continue into the future -
a) https://www.properazzi.co.nz/articles/the-property-market-cycles-of-the-...
b) https://youtu.be/Agp9xFWoBX4?t=172
c) https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/median-price-reinz
d) https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/qv-house-price-index

2) property prices have not been volatile, and do not fall by much. During the GFC, house prices in Auckland fell only 7-10%

3) there is a underlying shortage of housing in Auckland, so property prices won't fall by much - https://www.interest.co.nz/property/97513/auckland-councils-chief-econom...

4) there is a growing population which means that there will be more demand for houses - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/106883553/house-prices-have-fallen-but-...

5) we have inward immigration which means more demand for houses

6) Auckland is an attractive city with an attractive lifestyle - that makes it desirable and attracts foreigners to move to Auckland and hence raise the demand for houses

7) lower interest rates are supportive of rising house prices

8) lower interest rates make debt servicing easier for borrowers

9) Low interest rates were also forcing retirees and those nearing retirement to look for investments that would produce income, such as rental property. "Plans of the baby boomers to retire and live off a conservative yet well-yielding portfolio have evaporated with low interest rates," he said. "[They] are seeking assets and buying investment properties. They are also seeking assets they can hold and live off of for three decades in retirement rather than just 15 years given advances in health and medicines." - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/84322204/all-predictions-of-an-auckland...

10) we mustn't forget either the vested interests in ongoing stability. No government, central bank or trading bank with mortgage exposure wants materially lower house prices. Nor does an incumbent Beehive want falling house prices going into an election campaign https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/110499233/think-house-prices-are-going-...

11) the economy is doing well, with low unemployment - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/110499233/think-house-prices-are-going-...

12) there has been insufficient construction of new builds to meet the underlying housing shortage - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/106883553/house-prices-have-fallen-but-...

13) there are high construction costs to building a house. House prices cannot fall below their construction cost. - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/106883553/house-prices-have-fallen-but-...

14) people don't sell their houses at a loss - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/106883553/house-prices-have-fallen-but-...

15) continued inflation means that house prices will continue to rise in the future

16) The fact is, debt levels have barely changed from the beginning to the end of those 10 years, compared to GDP levels, compared to household assets, compared to household disposable incomes. And much more importantly, debt servicing is very much easier now, an item that is almost universally overlooked. We are not pushing out to unsustainable levels now, and even if they creep up a little, we are far from that point. https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/95894/if-you-think-new-zealands-house...

17) in aggregate household debt servicing is low in New Zealand - currently at just under 8% of disposable income of households - https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/statistics/key-graphs/key-graph-household-debt

18) property market participants & commentators who have been correct in their predictions about recent property price trends have more credibility and hence their predictions of upward prices are believed by a wider audience (such as Ashley Church, Tony Alexander, Ron Hoy Fong, Matthew Gilligan, etc). - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/84322204/all-predictions-of-an-auckland...

19) previous warnings about a house price crash have been wrong - property prices have continued rising upward significantly since these warnings were given, so there is little reason to believe these warnings.(such as Bernard Hickey) - https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/84322204/all-predictions-of-an-auckland...

20) its unlikely Auckland prices collapse. I think the main two reasons though are:a) Affordability has been this bad, and worse, in the past and it only resulted in about a 10% drop. b) The number of homes built over the last decade has been too low and will take some time to recover - https://www.interest.co.nz/property/100670/housing-market-continues-hibe...

21) NZ is a safe haven from COVID-19, etc - expats will buy houses in NZ - https://www.theguardian.com/.../why-silicon-valley...

22) More QE, lower interest rates, mortgage holidays, interest free loans, wage subsidies, no LVR... it's getting harder and harder to see house prices falling

23) House prices arent going to fall. The degenerate central bankers will see to that.

24) Successive governments have devalued the $NZ so much anyway, which is one of the main reasons why properties on average double in nominal value over 10 yrs and which is why you should leverage your assets to buy more.

Yes, there are always a million reasons why very inflated markets are justified, until some catalyst pulls the rug out. Hundreds of years of western capitalist markets tell this truth.

Wanted to monitor and remind people the common narrative that is going on that caused property prices to rise to elevated risk levels.

If property prices do subsequently fall the predicted 10-15% (or even more in some other areas), people might ask themselves:
i) how did property prices ever get to such elevated risk levels? what were people thinking when they were buying?
ii) what were the warning signs of elevated property price risks that were missed?

I've read most of Robert Shillers books - Irrational Exuberance and Animal Spirits are two that come to mind when thinking of the New Zealand property market.

Headline in stuff today.
Leaky home in hot demand: 'I could have sold it 10 times over
Bargain at well over half million. :(

In such hot demand that it sold for 37k under the asking price, apparently.

"Although the property, which was built in the '90s, has an RV of $915,000, it was listed at $649,000 and sold for $612,000. And Scott says the price was the sticking point. "Lots of buyers wanted to pay a lot less than that. Generally, we might have 100 to 120 potential buyers on the TradeMe watch list; this property had 900."

Hahahahaha this is top notch comedy! He could have sold it "10 times over"... yet he sold it 33% below RV. Well, I could sell my 2004 Nissan March 10 times over* too!

*...if the asking price was $1000

Who would buy a Nissan March ? Ever ?

I did. An amazing car in the city. My partner isn't a very confident driver, so we needed a car that's easy to park and maneuver.
It sucks to drive on longer trips due to the noise, but it has a surprisingly spacious trunk and I can even carry my kayak around.
Also very reliable and cheap to run & maintain. $200 per year on average for regular service.
My mother had the same model, she got it brand new in 2004 and has been driving it pretty much daily since then. Nothing broke on it, ever.

Each to their own, I don't aspire to drive the same car as my mum does

I'll try not to take offense at your comment. I had a Porsche Boxster before I moved to NZ, and I'll probably buy something similar a few years from now, but for our current needs a Nissan March is much better suited than a sports car. Plus I'm saving more money this way.
I mentioned my mom's car because that car's spotless service record was why I bought a Nissan March instead of a Honda Jazz (Fit).

That's only because your mum doesn't drive a Nissan March.

QV/Corelogic are pedestrian market commentators chanting obvious rear-view mirror statistics. Nothing new here.

What is new is economists of major banks talking 10-15% falls, holding the biggest mortgage books these bank economists don't normally predict falls, and never this high.

Remember most buyers of houses need to use debt to finance their purchase. Some locations (e.g. Queenstown, Auckland CBD apartments) may have larger property price falls than others in New Zealand.

Here is a reminder of the impact of leverage (it amplifies property price changes both on the up and down):
Scenarios of financial impact of leverage on equity, assuming an 80% LVR for owner occupier, for a recent $1,000,000 property purchase, $200,000 initial deposit, mortgage $800,000. (simple round numbers used for illustration purposes)

A) Scenario - property price rise:
1) property price rises 5% to $1,050,000, mortgage $800,000, equity $250,000, so 25% gain in equity value from $200,000.
2) property price rises 10% to $1,100,000, mortgage $800,000, equity $300,000, so 50% gain in equity value from $200,000.
3) property price rises 15% to $1,150,000, mortgage $800,000, equity $350,000, so 75% gain in equity value from $200,000.
4) property price rises 20% to $1,200,000, mortgage $800,000, equity $400,000, so 100% gain in equity value from $200,000.
5) property price rises 25% to $1,250,000, mortgage $800,000, equity $450,000, so 125% gain in equity value from $200,000.
6) property price rises 30% to $1,300,000, mortgage $800,000, equity $500,000, so 150% gain in equity value from $200,000.
7) property price rises 35% to $1,350,000, mortgage $800,000, equity $550,000, so 175% gain in equity value from $200,000.
8) property price rises 40% to $1,400,000, mortgage $800,000, equity $600,000, so 200% gain in equity value from $200,000.
9) property price rises 50% to $1,500,000, mortgage $800,000, equity $700,000, so 250% gain in equity value from $200,000.
10) property price rises 100% to $2,000,000, mortgage $800,000, equity $1,200,000, so 500% gain in equity value from $200,000. (i.e if they believe that the property price doubles every 10 years)

B) Scenario - property price falls:
1) property price falls 5% to $950,000, mortgage $800,000, equity $150,000, so 25% loss in equity value from $200,000.
2) property price falls 10% to $900,000, mortgage $800,000, equity $100,000, so 50% loss in equity value from $200,000.
3) property price falls 15% to $850,000, mortgage $800,000, equity $50,000, so 75% loss in equity value from $200,000.
4) property price falls 20% to $800,000, mortgage $800,000, equity is ZERO, so 100% loss in equity value from $200,000.
5) property price falls 25% to $750,000, mortgage $800,000, equity is NEGATIVE $50,000, so 125% loss in equity value from $200,000.
6) property price falls 30% to $700,000, mortgage $800,000, equity is NEGATIVE $100,000, so 150% loss in equity value from $200,000.
7) property price falls 35% to $650,000, mortgage $800,000, equity is NEGATIVE $150,000, so 175% loss in equity value from $200,000.
8) property price falls 40% to $600,000, mortgage $800,000, equity is NEGATIVE $200,000, so 200% loss in equity value from $200,000.
9) property price falls 45% to $550,000, mortgage $800,000, equity is NEGATIVE $250,000, so 225% loss in equity value from $200,000.
10) property price falls 50% to $500,000, mortgage $800,000, equity is NEGATIVE $300,000, so 250% loss in equity value from $200,000.

If Tony A was still at BNZ I bet he would be saying a drop of no more than 5%...

FYI, Tony Alexander's latest view on house prices as at May 28, 2020.

"I’m in the 5% - 10% range for the NZ-wide average but with some very high variations. Biggest declines are likely in Queenstown and Auckland inner city, followed by the regions. Our biggest cities representing 57% of our population (Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch) are likely to show only slight declines. "

"rear-view mirror statistics"

Many people invest using the rear view mirror and extrapolate the past into the future.

Many are using property price increases for the last 46 years and believe that this is a relevant and useful basis for developing future property price expectations.

From 1974 -2020 (46 years) the house price index went from 91 to 2,843. (i.e 31.2 x the original index value in 46 years). FYI, that is 7.79% per annum. - https://www.interest.co.nz/charts/real-estate/qv-house-price-index

From that property price index chart, many house buyers get confidence that:
1) there is low historical volatility of property prices (say compared to shares)
2) property prices have not fallen by much historically, and when they have, they have recovered in a few years and
3) there has been a seemingly consistent historical growth in property prices.

As a result, many residential real estate property buyers are willing to use high levels of debt to finance that purchase, which may result in high debt service ratios.

Some real estate markets to note :

i) note how prices prior to these periods:
a) low historical price volatility
b) property prices didn't fall by much before they peaked
c) showed a seemingly consistent upward direction.

ii) then something unexpected happened

1) residential real estate in Ireland circa 2005/2006 - then house prices fell over 50% (and still haven't recovered to their previous peak over 14 years ago) - https://tradingeconomics.com/ireland/housing-index

2) residential real estate in United States circa 2005/2006 - then house prices fell 27% - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA

i) residential real estate in Las Vegas circa 2005/2006 - then house prices fell over 60% (and still haven't recovered to their previous peak 14 years ago) - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LVXRNSA

3) residential real estate in Spain circa 2005/2006 - then house prices fell 26% or thereabouts (and still haven't recovered to their previous peak 14 years ago) - https://tradingeconomics.com/spain/housing-index

4) residential real estate in Hong Kong circa 1997 - then house prices fell 55-60% - https://tradingeconomics.com/hong-kong/housing-index

5) residential real estate in Singapore circa 1997 - then house prices fell 40% - https://tradingeconomics.com/singapore/housing-index

6) residential real estate in Japan circa 1991 - then house prices fell by over 45% (and still have recovered to their previous peak almost 30 years later. They are still at least 30% below their peak almost 30 years ago) - https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/QJPN628BIS

Asset prices are disconnected from reality. Does it make sense that the NZX50 peaked at just over 12000, and is now back at 11117. You lot are stuck thinking this thing through with no consideration of the tools they will use to overt the meltdown. They are talking up the doom and gloom so the average Joe will readily accept the coming negative interest rates and money printing. Where will asset prices be in 5 years? Which way would you bet? NZX50 at 5000 or 30000

"A disconnect in expectations is developing between vendors and purchasers amidst declining sales volumes, suggesting we are on the brink of material declines for the first time in nearly 12 years," the report said.

This is the first phase of a price reset. Buckle up for a bumpy ride.

* Note the stats suggest flat price change in QT over the past year. I'd suggest this data is now well out of date.

What do people think the govt will do when housing starts to tank before the election?

Will it though? Wage subsidies last till October?

The go for broke 8 week subsidy tack on will only be claimed by hospo businesses, and others that are on the verge of falling over. Anyone with a 50% reduction in sales over the next 30 days is deep in the kaka. Hope im not.

Yea true that. I guess I assumed that the subsidy would carry enough businesses through till the election is over but that might be wishful thinking...

Wage subsidies last till forever? Let's see if we are now in a perpetual "new normal"... with a UBI in everything but name...

Jacinda, queen of communication, will shock the RE world - announcing that speculators will not be rescued by this government at the expense of the young. She will use her talent to explain to the vast majority of new zealanders that when they own their own home and have stable income, they do not need to fear a drop in their perceived equity. By correcting the attitude to property in NZ we will enter a new era of hope for future generations. The addiction of kiwis to property value increases will be stopped.

Absolutely, she will do that right after using her communication skills to stop the war in Syria, put an end to world pollution, eliminate hunger in 3rd world countries and stop tensions between China and the USA. Trump will turn into a smart, reasonable man after talking to Jacinda and COVID will return to wherever it came from.
The End

Dreamer. House price increases are caused by devaluing money. Thirty years back you could by a house in AKL for under $100,000. You will never stop a fiat currency being devalued. It is government policy - 2% inflation.

.

..

Overall it won't be good. But not as bad as many suggest. We've come off a strong economy, housing demand (particularly rentals) is no where near being met. Interest rates at historic lows, banks being helpful to borrowers. That is in their interest to do so. As usual it comes down to supply and demand. Wellington will be the place to be, as that's where all the Gummint money ends up sloshing around. Queenstown and Rotorua, not so much. When Auckland starts to come right, then it's business as usual. Still it will never be possible to build an inexpensive home in NZ. This fact underpins existing values in many different ways.

House prices holding steady in Hawke’s bay and other regional cities with good sales numbers, including during lockdown.
There is actually pent up demand from buyers (who have been unable to waste money on smashed avocado & lattes during lockdown so saving bigger deposits) and limited listings.
Properties in the 600 to 800k in desirable suburbs - no sign of any cliff face falls.
The gloomsters in 2008/2009 after the GFC were all wrong re house price falls.
Prices and sales are likely to rocket ahead, as normal.

spoken like a true REA

How much money would you have to be spending on lattes and avocados for 2 months of lockdown to make a real different to your deposit?

LAND! THEY'RE NOT MAKING ANYMORE OF IT!
CLEAN WATER, WHATS THAT?
WHO REALLY CARES?????????

volumes lead values...