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Sales on half the properties at Barfoot & Thompson's auctions last week

Sales on half the properties at Barfoot & Thompson's auctions last week

The number of residential properties being auctioned by Barfoot & Thompson flattened out last week after growing strongly in the previous weeks since the COVID-19 lockdown restrictions ended.

The agency, which is the biggest in the Auckland market, marketed 97 residential properties for sale by auction in the week from 15-21 June, compared to 102 in the previous week and 85 the week before that.

However while the number of properties brought to auction was largely flat, there was a jump in the number of sales achieved, which rose to 50, giving an overall sales clearance rate of 51%, compared to 38% the previous week.

Barfoot's biggest auction of the week was at Manukau where 26 properties from the southern and eastern suburbs were auctioned and the sale rate was 58%.

The highest sales rate of the week was the Shortland Street auction on June 16, where a mix of properties from central Auckland and western suburbs such as Te Atatu South and Glen Eden were offered and the sales rate was 80%.

Sales were more subdued at the big North Shore auction where the sales rate was 36%.

The results breakdown for all of Barfoot & Thompson's auctions last week are in the table below and details of the individual properties offered at each auction are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

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Barfoot & Thompson Residential Auction Results
15-21 June 2020
Date Venue Sold Sold Post Sold Prior Not Sold Withdrawn Total % Sold
20 June On-site 3         3 100%
16 June Manukau 12   3 10 1 26 58%
16 June Shortland St 7   1 2   10 80%
17 June Shortland St 8 1 1 9   19 53%
17 June Whangarei       2   2 0
17 June Pukekohe 1     2   3 33%
18 June North Shore 5   3 13 1 22 36%
18 June Shortland St 4     5   9 44%
19 June Shortland St 1     1 1 3 33%
Total All venues 41 1 8 44 3 97 51%

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102 Comments

These are great results and agents should be very happy. West Auckland did especially well with what looks like everything getting more than RV. It almost looks like "game on" again.

24
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Perfect comment on the glass half full. Congratulations, you are the winner for today! C'mon down..

Given that Covid-19 has been fully in the public consciousness for a good 4-5 months now, it might be reasonable to assume that if there was going to be a major housing market price correction, we would have seen much stronger signs of it by now......

Instead, the housing market has remained pretty resilient - with plenty of properties selling for comfortably above RV. And that's despite the onset of winter as well.

I guess this effect might be explained (at least partially) by people looking for security - in times of uncertainty......

There's a very widespread view that purchasing a house is a pretty safe bet - either as a home to live in, or as an investment.

Have a relaxing day everyone,

TTP

26
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I agree with some of the points here, e.g. safe bet feeling. But this is such a narrow view in terms of what is going to unfold over the next 6 months, the economic impact hasn't even started yet. Our economy is 10% smaller (tourism only) day one right off the bat, this doesn't take into account the secondary impacts. Government is currently subsidizing everything. Its about to get very bad and this will impact housing.

10% is tourism and with ancilary industry / business the domino affect will be bad along with other industries that too are hit hard like international students.... Agree with you that economic impact has not yet started in real sense as supported by government subsides.

The basic purpose of the subsidy was to provide cushion, which it has but side effect of it is, too much liquidity resulting in pushing up asset class up be it stock or house and that happening at this stage of economy (where unemployement to touch new high) is a deadly cocktail and will only its effect / hangover when the party is over.

"Our economy is 10% smaller (tourism only)". You think just tourism?
What about thousands of overseas students who haven't be able to start their academic year? Their fees alone accountable for some 500 millions to our top 8 universities income, roughly 1.2 billions overall on fees plus their daily spending in general... Import/export is also hurting due to lack of flights and restrictions.

14
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Yes and they must have been living somewhere so there is will be millions of dollars of rental income missing this year.

It looks like we usually have around 60,000 international students studying here each year and if each has been paying around $15,000 a year in rent (say around $300 per week) for an apartment or bedroom then combined that is nearly a billion dollars gone in rent each year from the rental market each year they don't come back. That isn't an insignificant amount of money.

https://www.educationcounts.govt.nz/statistics/indicators/main/student-e...

Ouch for apartment owners

I have read the various articles of doom as much as the rest of you, and I acted on them (Cash, Kiwi Bonds, Gold coins, and even a Steel Sports Rolex), but I'm sitting here in my CBD office eating my lunch and wondering WTF as I feel like one of those prepper nutters you see on TV. I want house prices down so I can buy but the market appears to tell me it's not happening in the short term. Maybe you called it right TTP.

Hi Ex Expat,

From a personal perspective, I'd very much like to buy a house too - so I'd also like to see an appreciable fall in house prices......

But the rational/objective side of me tells me it's not going to happen.

In February/March this year, heaps of people here said that house prices would be in the doldrums by winter. Well, it's winter now but the housing market is doing ok......

Now, someone above is telling us we need to wait just another 6 months...... No doubt in 6 month's time, we'll be told to wait another 6 months......

The problem is that another 6 months never comes - and I find myself getting further and further behind. (A little villa in Ponsonby has my dream for a long time.)

Never mind, I know that plenty of other people are in the same boat as us. Some moan about our plight - but I don't stoop to that.

TTP

11
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You are looking at this objectively and you dont think prices are going to drop in the next 6 months to year. That is some bold analysis, the world economy is melting down. You might get that Ponsonby villa sooner then you think.

10
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TTP, let's just ignore the fact that you're not a wannabe FHB and talk about this part of your comment isntead:
"and I find myself getting further and further behind"
If you're getting further and further behind, you're not saving enough money. Why are you so bad with money? I thought you were an established, successful businessman.
I'm actually getting ahead every month, saving way more than the current house price appreciation, even though i'm just a lazy, bitter, jealous, loser millennial.

Hi CourtJester,

You state: "I thought you were an established, successful businessman."

That's news to me. Nobody's ever accused me of that before!

When I show that comment to my friends, they'll have a laugh.

TTP

Are you saying you're actually not successful? If so, why should anyone listen to your advice?

Hi CourtJester,

With all due respect, one does not need to be a businessman/woman to be successful in life.

There are many smart/successful people in this world who have no business interests whatsoever.

Further, there are plenty of people who own property who would not class themselves as business people.

TTP

Alright, so we have established...nothing so far, because your answers are way too vague. So just answer this question: are you actually getting further and further behind every month from owning your dream house?

I think TTP meant that if the price is always going to crash in 6 months time, why would you ever buy?

Tim Mordaunt founder of Property Brokers is not a successful business man?

He might be a very clever business man. If he set up his empire of companies right with all his personal assets protected, he owns nothing. If his business went bust.. he owes nothing! Hence he could be a FHB after all.

Why would you expect any major shift in house prices yet? Government has stepped in with wage subsidies (60-70% of private sector employees) and is pushing banks to offer mortgage deferrals (almost 25% are interest only or deferred). The question is, will our economy return to near normal before these expire? What percentage of those jobs can be maintained without the subsidy? The big concerns are no tourism, migration or international students.

The harsh reality is that we are just seeing the start of the impact Covid will have on the Global economic. The vast majority of countries have failed to contain the spread, which means the direct impacts to the economy will last for months, but more likely years.

Playing Devil's advocate, why would anyone be buying now given the forecasts of a dip in the near term? It's ok to have expectations but we'd be wise to check them against real world outcomes. Right now, I'm perplexed. I expected to see an apocalypse. No doubts some are feeling it now, but it's not as pervasive as I expected.

Hmm...it's a tough one eh. I don't think we've felt the impact of the downturn very much at all yet and it's early days, and it's tough to predict the limits of the Reserve Bank and government's willingness to engage in wealth transfer to prop up property. Not only their will but their ability.

You could very well use it as the bargaining chip. A friend of mine was able to get a very good deal because the seller was scared off with the upcoming COVID19 storm. Time will tell if it was a good buy or not but for now he managed to get a house well under his budget

I’m in a similar situation, although it sounds like I’m less wealthy than you. I’ve been expecting prices to drop for years and it hasn’t really happened. My own analysis keeps coming back to unemployment as the only thing that can FORCE prices down in this low-interest environment- and there’ll be all kinds of schemes to keep the unemployed in their homes, even if it’s not in their own best interest. So I’ve become fairly Zen about the situation- I know how many years of my life I’m willing to dedicate to paying off a cinderblock 2-beddie in Mt Roskill, and it’s evidently fewer than my compatriots. So be it. Prices may fall to something more in line with the rest of the planet, and if they don’t I’ll spend my money on other things.

Seems to me young Kiwis need to become more vocal about the wealth transfer that has been engaged in from them to asset owners by government and central banking over the last decades. Especially given they are also expected to foot the bill for universal pensions and welfare subsidies to property investors.

Most I talk to have completely given up on the system the older generations are buying into and punishing them with.

Not just younger generations are struggling. I'm an Auckland renter in my late 50s.

Ex Expat - I've been in Auckland market for 37 years, over that time there has been endless calls by people like those on here predicting doom, prices always about to fall etc etc etc.
If you are in a position to buy and can comfortably satisfy a bank for a loan then there is no point in delaying your purchase and get on with your life.
Happy investing !

Investing or 'buying'?

11
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There are at least two very good reasons to delay a purchase even if you are currently in a position to buy. 1) you are worried about job security (which let's face it a large number of kiwis are or should be) and 2) you expect significant price drops in the near future, which basically every major bank and s&p are predicting.

Do you have any source for your 2nd point?

Kevin,

Just out of interest,
i) what house price forecasts are you aware of (if any)?
ii) what do you believe will happen to house prices in the long term? (say 10 years)

LOL, seriously?

It wouldn't be surprising that a high proportion of the public are unaware of forecasts of house price declines. To most people they are unaware, as they're uninterested, or have their attention on other matters that are more urgent such as:

- work related issues, (for those that are employed)
- parents / stay at home parent - taking care of children,
- if they've recently become unemployed, or had a reduction in household income - how to get a job, how to get replacement income, how to pay their bills, etc
- for business owners - focusing on how to generate more revenues, focus on making sure the business is going to survive and has sufficient cashflow, managing staff, etc

Amazing that you manage to completely ignore the fact that 60-70% of private sector employees are currently being subsidised by the government - that means the company they work for is suffering for revenue and makes their employment status is doubt. You'd think anyone with a balanced view would at least mention the impact this will have in the near future.

16
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Money/debt is so cheap. The worst place to be it seems is a large positive bank balance.

12
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As much gross debt as you can muster ( Yes. It is cheap. Get IF you can for as long as you can, and don't spend it) and a big positive bank balance? Sounds good to me :) Especially whilst we have "there was a jump in the number of sales achieved". Note : Sales achieved. Those who need to sell should be, and that produces ...."there was a jump in the number of sales". So the smart or nervous or distressed ( take your pick!) - are selling.

What does a big bank balance give you right now? Liquid OPTIONS! And given the present and future is full of uncertainty, options are going to be the 'asset' needed most.

I know a couple of people who are selling in order to move up to larger houses. They are getting fairly good prices, at least not a loss even though only having owned for a couple of years, and moving to larger houses with mortgage outgoings that are similar to their last houses when they first bought them.

Personally I reckon you 'go big, go expensive, go many' when the market is headed up. You know, the last 40 years. But having run that race already my preference is to 'go small - downsize' ( the smallest place that you could tolerate living in at whatever standard of living you're used to!) and net debt-free. As I suggest above, people with options can buy today, tomorrow, next week or next decade if they want to. But those who get trapped with an illiquid asset of any kind will find the going a lot tougher.
What's the worst that happens to people 'caught' without a home and cash in the bank? They have to pay (borrow) more to get one.
What's the worst that happens to people 'caught' long property with net debt? They go bankrupt - one way or another.

Yes watch John Key on that downsizing concept. Sold the majority of his home - took the capital from the market and will be cashed up ready to buy in when we find the new price level

Plus he just sold his Sydney off the plan apartment for about $6.5m too

With debt cheap, affordability won't materially change unless A. there are significant job losses or B. banks restrict lending C. psychology changes and people decide to hold off buying

We get the data on job losses and we would see decreases in interest and purchases but not hard data on bank lending behaviour. We get hints and smoke and mirrors. Can anyone comment on whether they have experienced more difficulty procuring mortgages recently? Any whiff of bank tightening regs?

I had a long chat in person with the principal of a major mortgage broking company last week (I prefer not to name him), he told he had more than double the mortgage applications compared to a year ago but banks were more cautious about lending, saying they would lend only a small proportion to over 90% LVR and sometimes wanting as much as 70% LVR.

@Yvil: Did you get any impression whether the increase applications were for new properties or refinancing current ones?

Good question but no I don't know. In his opinion the cheaper houses are not going to lose a lot of value because interest rates have dropped to levels which make it cheaper to own than to rent

The people with money who have been stacking houses for the last 2 decades still have money to buy houses, Covid or no Covid. There's just a few fewer of them.

"With debt cheap, affordability won't materially change unless A. there are significant job losses or B. banks restrict lending C. psychology changes and people decide to hold off buying"

Regarding affordability of buying a house for first home buyers - is access to the bank of mum and dad leading to increasing wealth inequality in New Zealand?

What happens to those who don't have access to the bank of mum and dad?

"Mortgage brokers report around 70 per cent of first home applicants have some sort of help from what is colloquially known as the Bank of Mum and Dad (or BoMaD). Banks report a slightly lower percentage; anecdotally around 60 per cent."

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/pros-and-cons-of-borrowing-from-the-bank-...

Good question. Because "bank of Mum and Dad" might not be feeling so flash lately with TD's in the gutter. But also, that we now live in a society where inherited wealth has become a necessity for a whole generation aspiring to own a home is surely some kind of nightmarish flashback to the class structure of Europe's that so many settlers were so keen to leave behind?

Nz has become a very very self-interested place. Sad, in my opinion.

No, NZ's always been like this. Maori had ongoing inter-tribal wars over land before Europeans arrived. After the Maori land wars (the word 'land' says it all), and even before, Europeans went after the land and built up land holdings in both the rural and urban areas.
What younger people don't seem to realise is that the seeming 'egalitarian period' between the late 1950s and the early 2000s, were, from a historical and anthropological/evolutionary perspective, far from typical; it was an untypical 'golden age".
The majority of Britains that came to NZ in the 1800s came from a class-ridden hierarchical society dominated by the landed gentry/aristocracy'. You only have to watch Sky History documentaries to see the same happening in ancient Egypt, Greece, and Rome.
According to anthropologists there are only a few genuinely egalitarian societies, but they exist only in small groups in remote areas such as the Amazonian rain-forest. Russia does seem to have suppressed individualism throughout its history only by a ruthless monarchy followed by even more ruthless autocrats; there did open a brief period of opportunity for the natural propensity of individuals to amass wealth when Gorbachev came to power, but those few that did become wealthy, the oligarchs, had to fall into line behind yet another autocrat in Putin.

We do seem to be in possession of rather too many self-rating aspiring landed gentry.

And it's amazing how some are so pro free money and anti free housing at the same time. I guess it's ye olde "socialism for me, capitalism for thee" on display again.

11
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One may read data as half full or half empty to suits individual narration but truth is that housing market so far is holding itself and the confidence can be seen as RE Agents do not shy away with premium feedback/ house price and this confidence is as houses that are been sold in Auction are still going at premium with some exception (which happens in all time).

Though all indication and reports suggest that going future house price should fall (percentage of fall can be debated) and the only reason for the prices holding be it house price or stock market seems to be liquidity by the government by printing money and distributing it as no economy fundamental supports except easy and free money.

Being election year expecting the subsidies to run till September before the real economy affect of Panedemic is felt.

22
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Adrian Orr is laughing.

Money printer goes brrrrrrrr.
Property portfolio goes mooooooon.

10
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No denying that houses are selling at premium for now. Expecting house price to fall by Sep/Oct but still now should have soften, which does not seem to be happening.

With so much of free money floating in the economy and low interest rate seems to be at play as no other reason justify with economy comming to a halt not just in NZ but worldover.

Economy not based on fundamental but by printing of money specially being election year in NZ and US government will go out in full force with subsidies under the guise of panademic to woo voters.

NEVER under-estimate status quo interests and the huge desire to preserve this massive ponzi.
That's exactly why I have said property prices won't crash, except in one or two places like Queenstown / Wanaka.

Not expecting crash but expecting a fall unless get full force second wave than anything is possible.

Still feel that real impact will be felt in Sep/Oct.

Is the property market actually working in another dimension?

Foreign Buyer
Early days, but so far making your predictions look ridiculous.

by Foreign buyer | 22nd Apr 20, 11:08am
The agents mobile phones will busy next week. Its obvious now that the market is about to plummet and there is absolutely nothing anybody can do about it. We are going back to 2006 prices.

Yeah well done.

20
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Sorry P8, I was wrong, we are temporarily delayed due to the corrupt RBNZ's attempts at keeping the Ponzi going. I underestimated their greed. I do stand by my comment however regarding going back to 2006 prices. It is just going to take a couple years to get there.

FB
Pretty naive not to anticipate RBNZ actions to ensure economic stability and the consequences of that for the housing market.

I do agree housing sector is the only wall standing between recession and depression particularly in NZ where housing is the sole feel good Rock Star Economy.

Being election year it is important for Labour party to hold that wall if want to win election and retain power . More chances of government holding the wall (Atleast till election) though on shaky ground as have got the license to print and distribute money and will not lose this opportunity unless Corona virus play spoilsport.

The growth rate of delinquency must be worrying! Can’t keep growing at that rate for long before another debt crisis eventuates

FB this news /data is more in line with expectation of what is happening and will only get worse in times to come.

> I underestimated their greed

Schoolboy error.

I agree, I have been very naive. I totally underestimated just how low the RBNZ would go.

I have told before the direction of the housing market value is a tug-o-war between job losses & business closures vs lower interest rates & more money printing. I stand by this statement and I think its very difficult to say exactly what force will be stronger. Possibly, to many's surprise, I think house prices will go down about 10%

There is also the psychology of people involved - if the fear of missing out narrative, that in my view has driven prices and demand significantly the last 5-10 years, is replaced by the narrative 'well the banks think prices are going to fall this year, I'll wait and buy at a cheaper price' then the fear of missing out could be replaced by the fear of getting out before prices fall. This narrative, like in all bubbles, gains momentum and prices fall much more than anyone could or would have predicted.

10
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As Matt Taibbi from Rolling Stone was advised "He said, your problem is that you are trying to understand this as an economic story, once you look at it as a crime story ... you'll get it".

We live under a financial dictatorship of unelected counterfeiters.

https://youtu.be/1O8UeHWoLxo

Yes FB for now the property market is in total disconnect from reality. I know its pretty difficult for buyers at present, just waiting for what seems inevitable but you do have to factor in the governments around the world keeping all the bubbles inflated. Unfortunately its looking like the bubble is just being inflated even further until an epic failure of the complete monetary system in 1 to 2 years time. All the logic and the economic rulebook has been thrown out the window. The entire system is now brain dead and on life support but we all know that sooner rather than later the switch gets turned off.

Carlos67 - Agree with you but the severity of what has happened is so great that many government may not be able to pull for long so expecting the carnage by end of this year or early next year.

Same thing happening in stock market.

It's funny how sentiment flip flops here.

Who would want to buy via Auction or Closed Tender?
Older buyers, 3rd or 4th house buyers would rather a normal offer/acceptance process surely?
Seems to be a slight leveling of the market price-wise. But low level of listings, so ...

This NZ business comes up when you search for debt solutions. It appears there are now more options for people than Forced sales, eviction or bankruptcy. https://www.debtfix.co.nz/debt-solutions.

With so much money / Liquidity in stock market it seems will be touching ne high in future :

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/22/theres-nearly-5-trillion-parked-in-money...

Nothing to do with fundamentals but now does it matter anymore as Cash /Printing of money has over taken fundamentals.

If share price rise will be interesting to see how house market behaves in future.

I still don't see the article on NZHerald and OneRoof saying that sales have increased last week...

Good to see this weeks comments much more sensible than usual

19
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It must come with a great sense of superiority to decide what is sensible commentary and what is not.

Come on now... he predicted the March record high prices 2 months in advance! Thus he's clearly always right! Of course you'd feel superior too if you were always right.

6 months in advance, in Sept 2019.

CJ some people cowardly hide behind sarcasm so they can never be wrong, others bravely say what they think

IO, wether you deem my comment superior (or not) is your choice

10
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Its not whether I or anyone else for that matter thinks your comment is superior or not. Its more the humorous observation that comments identified with numerous biases and heuristic constraints are judged to be more sensible than others.

IO wins. Flawless victory.

Anyone have any numbers on new listings. From the stuff I've been looking at the number of new listings has really fallen off. (Auckland sub 1.2mil)

I only have total listings, not new listings. But they're low. Almost 25% below this time last year, 15% below two years ago, and about the same as this time in 2017. Ticking up only very slowly after lockdown, though normally at this time of year you'd expect them to be falling.

The Fed in the US will not stop funding their economy (and, by corollary, the world's to a certain extent) Powell has stated this categorically. NZ Reserve Bank will do the same. Never bet against the Fed unless you want to lose your dough.

Yup - see top left number: https://www.usdebtclock.org/
Sometimes I just sit and watch it spin. Soothing somehow...

That's truly frightening.

I didnt look. Is there a dial showing GDP? Because nominal values are almost meaningless it's the debt/gdp ratio that matters. Even that matters far less than most think.

Interesting although I do find these weekly analyses a bit pointless. You need to look across a few months, not a few weeks, to draw any conclusions, especially with such a small sample group as this...

Something possibly worth noting...when the crash started in Arizona, sales volumes didn't really dip at all...Prices just got lower and lower and lower and lower...and didn't stop for about six years. During the height of the GFC I was selling 4 houses a month on average, no word of a lie. So many variables, who knows how this crash will look. My personal view is, like a cliff, but I guess we'll find out by the end of the year...

Could be in NZ, who knows.

Thanks. I think I've seen that before, but it's worth watching again!

The point, as I see it, of these weekly reports is to try to get an early read on definitive stats for the month which are released by REINZ about two weeks after the end of the month. But looking at a week in isolation isn't the best way to do this. It would be much more useful to examine a moving average over the last few weeks.

Inflation rates are going up in NZ, I wonder what will happen with interest rates if inflation get out of hand this would send banks and housing Into a spin.

Orr and Bascand would sit back and so absolutely nothing. Guaranteed.

Yep, they'll 'look through' it/ignore it. But the slightest hint of anything that can justify a drop in the OCR and they jump in head first.

In the US, Mark Moss just released a new video today (24/6) about the Fed buying everything (now into corporate bonds of individual companies, soon buying up the stock market) with huge amounts of printed money. If that isn't inflationary what is?:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwXmMpXnhlw

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