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The sales rate at residential auctions has settled around 50%, prices look reasonably steady

The sales rate at residential auctions has settled around 50%, prices look reasonably steady

Residential auction activity was remarkably solid in June after the turmoil of the lockdown-affected months of April and May.

Interest.co.nz monitored 806 property auctions over the four weeks from 1-28 June, which was up 32% compared to the 609 auctions monitored in the equivalent four week period of last year (3-30 June 2019).

Although the number of properties being brought to auction this year was higher, the sales rate was similar to last year.

Of the 806 properties marketed for auction in the four weeks of June this year, sales were achieved on 387, giving an overall sales rate of 48%.

The sales rate has been running at about the 50% mark for several weeks, which was a slight improvement on last year.

In the equivalent four weeks of June last year the overall sales rate was 43%.

Prices also seemed reasonably solid.

Interest.co.nz was able to match up selling prices with rating valuations on 94% of the properties that sold at the auctions monitored over the four weeks from June 1-28.

Of those, 223 (69% of the matched properties) sold for more than their rating valuations.

In the equivalent four week period of last year 51% of matched sale prices were higher than their rating valuations.

Details of all the properties at the auctions monitored by interest.co.nz and the results achieved, are available on our Residential Auction Results page.

The comment stream on this story is now closed.

We welcome your help to improve our coverage of this issue. Any examples or experiences to relate? Any links to other news, data or research to shed more light on this? Any insight or views on what might happen next or what should happen next? Any errors to correct?

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147 Comments

Housing market it seems like stock market is changing everyday as one day is positive news and next day negative.

This despite economy gone out of window with most economy and world in shut down mode except Mint - printing of money in full speed with assurance that do what one wants to do as will print and save you to save ourselves (politicans).

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In October, once Jacindas free crutch has gone, reality will bite.

Yep sure, just don't say which year lol, so you won't be wrong, yet again

We're not seeing the dramatic fall in house prices that various people here had so enthusiastically anticipated......

TTP

No falls only Ups to you ttp, you picked it correctly

Hi Houseworks,

Your predictions (and advice) have always been well-considered.

TTP

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Your predictions (and advice) have always been well-considered.

A bit of self promotion as a forecaster of asset prices I see. Want to share any insights about your "method" or is that for fee-paying attendees at the seminar?

Thanks ttp. Gladly I admit that there are smarter proponents of property here on interest.co than moi. What I did is I learnt from the best and put that knowledge to good use to the max

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Ive noticed that since the the pressure has started to come onto the housing market, our regular spruikers have been working overtime to try and spread some positives.

Reality is
Asking prices are dropping
60% of real estate agents expect price drops and half of those expect drops of more than 10%
listing are starting to climb
19% of seller are citing financial stress as the reason.

And all that with mortgage holidays and wage subsidies .....

To be bullish in the face of these factors would imply foolishness or maybe just full of bull....

Read the above report again ... or actually just read it a first time. Heres a representative quote "monitored over the four weeks from June 1-28.

Of those, 223 (69% of the matched properties) sold for more than their rating valuations.

In the equivalent four week period of last year 51% of matched sale prices were higher than their rating valuations."

Are you following the changed mood over the last month, most DGM commenters even admit to changing their views..

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Are you following the changed mood over the last month, most DGM commenters even admit to changing their views.

So your prediction was that the mood in NZ has somehow changed from May to June therefore people want to go out and buy residential housing? It's not really clear.

I don't believe for a second that you can predict such things. It looks to nothing more than trolling, hence the juvenile reference to DGM.

I can't help that you piled in to gold and are not happy. Or that you didnt see that IT based companies and oversold companies would bounce-back so missed that one. You have been a vociferous 'DGM' for as long as I can remember why would anyone take much notice of your wounded-bear POV. Ah well better luck next pandemic :)

I can't help that you piled in to gold and are not happy. Or that you didnt see that IT based companies and oversold companies would bounce-back so missed that one. You have been a vociferous 'DGM' for as long as I can remember why would anyone take much notice of your wounded-bear POV. Ah well better luck next pandemic :)

OK. Confirming you are indeed trolling. Boring in 2020.

Nah mate you should stop labeling people trolls esp when you've tried to set up a situation but then find your own judgement questioned.

"by J.C. | 4th Jul 20, 7:09pm
Your predictions (and advice) have always been well-considered.

A bit of self promotion as a forecaster of asset prices I see. Want to share any insights about your "method" or is that for fee-paying attendees at the seminar?"

Enjoy

Nope. People who backslap themselves on their predictive abilities in asset markets on public forums without actually showing that they have some kind of method are likely to be trolls.

JC
Quite simple.
A bit of advice.
If you don't want to be embarrassed later by a post, think it through and substantiate it rather than posting a blood rush comment.
Nothing wrong at all - just see it as being accountable for one's post.
Not boring at all - it might even improve the quality of comments from some posters.

P.S. Can I remind you of a comment of yours: "Some or all of these people quoted here run the risk of being perceived as frauds or con artists into the future." 21 March.
Cheers

Correct. Frauds or con artists. In this case, more likely trolls.

For now housing market is steady and holding itself.

Expectation is that in future house price will fall but till than make hay while the sun shines.

Enjoy the present as predection is just a predection till it turns into reality and could be wrong as no one has crystal ball and all experts are doing analysis and predection as have to run their kitchen if they were so sure of what they predicts would make millions specially in stock market.

Agree, surprisingly all assets class be it stock or housing is up Up and UP.

If we were in bubble before lockdown than what is it now ?

Scary environment to invest. Need deep pockets.

48%? 50% ? 51%? Looks like a Pivotal Point to me!

" Price direction is determined by looking at the current period's price action relative to the pivot point: starting above or below the pivot point, or crossing it in either direction during trading."

https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=technical_indicators:pivot_po...

I took the lead from others and shut my eyes when reading this.
:)

Just the norm then.

It's finally all about yield. As long as you have income exceeding costs of debt and other stuff the rest is noise.

Interesting going through the sales results in Auckland. Central suburbs in good school zones and property with development potential like the place in Richardson Rd are selling well. Other houses just passed in or selling below a 2017 CV

Yes, noticed the same with previous weeks sales, seems like half of the sales are over and the other half below 2017 CV, although for Auckland CBD apartments the number of sales below is much higher.

It's all good if the banks will lend you the money....er right that's a big fat NO
https://i.stuff.co.nz/business/money/300049199/banks-turn-borrowers-away...

Thanks for the link - another piece of the credit tightening puzzle. Makes sense for the banks to manage their credit risk.

Talking with a broker who is family so likely to be honest.
Banks are being very, very cautious.
Apparently still maintaining stress test of 6.2% (ANZ) to 7%.
Looking more closely and being a little more ruthless regarding work (e.g. relief teachers without confirmed hours - which is the case) is not counting whereas this was acceptable previously.
Seeing receipt of wage subsidy as a big negative factor.
Low equity have a premium above carded rate, whereas high equity loans are at lesser special rate compared to carded rate.
Clearly bottom line is that bank lending is giving preferential consideration to investors and disadvantaging FHB.
The removal of LVRs may not being advantaging FHB as much as anticipated as banks tighten up on these other criteria.

We're in the final stages of locking down a new build as FHB.
We have 12% deposit and secure jobs (government).
Our bank (kiwi) turned us down. Sbs have pre approved but really wanted a lot of info. Sbs also has a new condition that they want to reinspect all our personal details prior to settlement. Which seems like a bit of a risk for us.

Currently attempting with ASB. They require 15% deposit but do waive it on occasion. My wife has an account with them which helps.
But it's definitely proving quite a challenge. More than we had anticipated. The removal of LVR's hasn't had any clear benefit for us.

Ask builders for 3 percent vendor finance (unsecured)...?

I'm not really sure what this is...?

For the vendor to advance you a loan for the 3 percent of the purchase price you still need. So asb lends 85 percent, you pay 12 percent and the vendor retains a loan for the difference. A loan on favourable terms such as zero percent interest rate, unsecured. Better still, negotiate with them to write it off after a year or less. But not reduce the purchase price or asb will also drop the cash amount they offer ie 85 percent of the lower figure which would leave you short.

Logan, HW is correct, if you can't raise the full amount ask the seller for vendor finance of whatever you're short, (this works best if you offer to pay full asking price). The vendor can still rank as a 2nd motgagor (ranking behind the bank) if they're worried you won't pay them back. I'd offer 5% interest on vendor finance.

Okay so I am very new to this.
Would I approach classic builders and explain that ASB requires we have 3% more deposit.
I would then ask classic builders if they offer vendors finance to bridge that 3% gap?
I wasn't aware that building companies would offer anything like that?
These lots have a decent wait list of people wanting them.

Any vendor can provide finance as a second mortgagor. Personally, as someone who has sold privately a number of times I would never provide finance as if anything goes wrong with the buyers situation you are waiting in line behind the bank.

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Please do more research. There is a very real chance that prices are going to drop substantially. If this happens your deposit could be wiped out. Ask for more advice from people without skin in the game. Agents and builders who want your business cannot be trusted unfortunately. Please be very careful. Good luck!

This is a risk we are very aware of (hence why we are actively looking for a different bank to loan from).
These kiwibuilds due tend to be worth a fair bit more than asking price when completed. The last batch had 60k capital gain by competition. This is due to the land being essentially subsidized by the Govt. So hoping that gives us a buffer with prices falling.
It seems like solid and reliable houses haven't gone down yet? While fixer uppers have started too?
I am quite new to all of this though.

Go well logan I am looking forward to hearing about your progress.

Cheers mate.
Putting down the initial deposit on Tuesday. Hoping everything works out okay.
Have looked up RV from the last two batches of builds. They tend to gain 35-50k (close to 10%) during the build time. Hoping this can act as a buffer for the potential decline.

I wouldn't be hoping for a buffer, considering you are buying/building right when prices are expected to fall. If all the predictions of a 10% fall come to fruition, you wouldnt have "gained" the 10% to lose in the first instance. That 10% will be coming off what you've paid for it.

logan
Your experience clearly illustrates how FHB seem to be at a disadvantage under current risk aversion by banks.
I have regularly posted that home ownership for 25 to 35 year old has fallen from 65% to 35% over the past 35 years.
With current uncertainty and bank apprehensions I see potential FHB being disadvantaged (e.g. 1+% higher mortgage interest rate) and I see that percentage falling further.
Although there is likely to be some fall in house prices and increasing affordability the dilemma being faced by FHB is going to be finance.
Great to hear that you are moving ahead. You will see comments on this site and hear casual comments about the risks of home ownership and prices. However as long as you can service the mortgage short term fluctuations are irrelevant. There will be those on this site critical of you and home ownership but it seems to me that many of these are either frustrated or sadly lack the initiative and discipline.
I appreciate the difficulties faced by FHB, but you clearly have initiative and I wish you well and in future will look back as this was the right decision.

Thanks for the response printer8.
Yes our serviceability is well in the green (we're on roughly 125k combined income). We do have a pesky vehicle loan but that hasn't seemed to be too much of a hinderance.
It's just a shame our deposit isn't a bit higher (sitting at 59.5k). I think it is important to be aware of the risks. Particularly with SBS bank. If our valuation drops too much they may refuse the approval just as we go to settle. Which is why we are hoping things work out with ASB (sounds like that one is pretty locked in once they've approved it).
It's always been a goal for us to own a home and we plan to live in this one for a good long while. So as long as we can get in, we should be able to manage any drops in equity (as we will play the long game). It's just getting the finance initially and getting in there!

That SBS deal, where they can refuse/reverse approval at settlement, sounds like a non-starter given that it would put you at risk of losing your deposit. That sounds like madness to me. Be sure to have your lawyer take a good look at it if you haven't already.

I'd lean towards continuing to push for a better deal, either a safer deal with SBS or another bank, or a better deal on your new build. In the meantime, your deposit is only going to increase. With government jobs, you're in a strong negotiating position compared to many others.

I've shopped around and that's actually a new condition of Kainga Ora's first home start loan (so that new condition applies to a bunch of banks such as TSB, Westpac, Kiwibank etc...).
Unfortunately, with our lower deposit and banks only wanting to lend to existing customers our options are limited! We have ASB to try or the new build construction loans company.
We've put down $2,000 so far to get the sales and purchase agreement. Hoping that ASB comes to the party so we have more security.
Otherwise it is looking like we're going to have to push forward with SBS. During the build time our deposit will grow so we can try shopping around closer to settlement. We are looking at temporarily moving back in with family to increase our savings ability (not ideal as it is a very small space).
We don't want to miss out on this new build and are already $2,000 in.

SBS broker did say a lot of FHB are on this type of mortgage. Speaking with TSB (who offers similar) their broker mentioned that from her side of things we were one of the strongest to do this first home start loan (considering permanent contracts in government jobs). This made me feel a bit better about it. But I agree - I don't like the risk involved.
Hopefully ASB works out. I'll know by Wednesday.

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Yes I don't buy into the 'its a good time to buy a house because interest rates are falling'. The reason rates are falling is because central banks are trying to fight off deflation because the economy (jobs and wages) aren't getting any better. And with each drop in interest rates, FHB's are being asked to service even more debt, with the prospect of an even worse economy to help them pay back that debt.

You have my respect (and condolences) for your consistency IO

IO
You - by your own admission - have been posting of a bubble burst for five years during which time NZ median price prior to lock down were up 54% and even Auckland up 27%.
Clearly your advice is suspect and that it seems that it will never be a "good time" to you.
In the time that you have been posting of bubble burst over 110,000 mortgages (close to 200,000 people) have been by FHB so your view seems very much out of step with the majority.
Personally I see your view simply as one being critical of someone getting ahead and given your five years of bubble burst, not worth considering.
Logan stands to get ahead in life enjoying the financial and personal securities and intrinsic value of home ownership.

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P8 - not sure why my views are so threatening to you. Is it not ok for me to have a view and make decisions based upon the risks I see?

You do realise there is more to life than this concept of buying a property 'to get ahead'! What are people trying to 'get ahead' of? I don't get it?

My decision not to buy a house - which I could happily do so with cash, has allowed me to invest in markets all over the world, across multiple asset classes, in multiple currencies and experienced some very good returns indeed. Reducing risk when the 2/10 inverted the end of last year allowed me to reduce risk before markets crashed and also allowed me to buy some new investments at very cheap prices in March. I can practise diversification, portfolio balancing to maintain asset weighting and risk, dollar cost averaging when purchasing to avoid issues timing markets etc. Its not all bad by just having all my wealth locked into one asset, in one market of one country (if I purchased a house).

There are more ways to financial freedom than buying an overpriced, damp home in NZ that, if things go badly, loses significant value. Its just that you possibly don't see that due to the confirmation/recency bias I've been pointing out, that is so deeply ingrained in our society/values that its actually a little strange. As NZ'ers we're property addicts, and I don't think its that healthy. Its actually quite a dangerous thing to have as its created that FOMO which to me may have pushed prices above their intrinsic value.

I don't judge people on their financial decisions - each to their own. I will point out risk though, which I have been doing. Is that ok with you?

IO
I refer you to your comments on 21 March "I've been saying this on here for about 5 years now. Our property market could well be the mother of all bubbles. It wouldn't surprised me to see a 50% (or more) fall in property prices across NZ."
Not only was this unsubstantiated, it was wildly inconsistent with RBNZ and bank economists estimates of around 10%.
What concerned me was at the time there was a degree of uncertainty in terms of the virus, and especially for recent FHB, a time of concern of the implications; your unsubstantiated and wild comment amounted to nothing else but baseless scaremongering creating fear.
Again today, another FHB is involved in completing buying a home and will be facing uncertainty; but you pile in again scaremongering. As I have posted his bank and lawyer - and most likely family - are well aware of the details of his situation and what he is doing and have vested interest in considering the risks involved. However, without any detailed knowledge about his situation, you need to come in with a scaremongering post.
For five years you say, you have been claiming bubble burst and you have been wrong, wrong.
I am not threatened at all by your posts.
What concerns me is that your posts have not proven correct, are not substantiated, not consistent with the likes of RBNZ, and are scaremongering. I see your comments having little credibility.
Own it.

‘Own it’ - what does that mean? Is it a threat or an intent to bully?

Note the ‘could’ I use as all I’m pointing out is a possible outcome - not a certainty. If that is scaremongering for you that is fine - from my perspective it is not. It is simply acknowledging risk.

I’m sorry if that threatens the paradigm you interpret the world by.

And what’s with this ‘no credibility’ tone you’re taking with peoples posts? It’s like something that Donald Trump would do to try and silence political opponents - here I was thinking we’re just sharing views to explore finance and economic news. Not create a fixed propaganda that destroyed the ‘credibility’ of commentary of other people.

IO
Re: "Own it".
I chuckled in your response to TTP the other day.
Seemed to be a bit of squirming out of things as you have previously over your "could/would" argument.
Maybe you need to take aboard my comment above:
"Quite simple . . .
Nothing wrong at all - just see it as being accountable for one's post . . . "
As for your five years posting claiming an imminent bubble burst . . . . . when do you concede?????
Close to 200,000 FHB disagree - and I have to see any rush in mortgagee sales.
However, we wait and see . . . this pandemic is your best bet.
Unfortunately NZRB aren't calling that. But then again, you would see RBNZ with all their contacts, access to data, modelling, and expertise as just being a bunch of bunnies.
Cheers.

Have you read/watched ‘The Princes of Yen’ and understand how vested interests operates in systems like this?

Taking data from central and retail banks right now reminds me of trusting bond ratings by the likes of the Moody’s prior to the GFC. And you know what happened there right?

IO
Will give you another year then.
Have a good week.
Cheers :)

Gee thanks for the tolerance!

Likewise.

Cheers

In your opinion IO, when is it a good time to buy a house?

We'll I lived through the GFC in the USA and purchasing at the peak wasn't ideal for those that did. Look at places like Ireland or even closer to home, take a look at Perth. But if you have the desire and deposit do it when you're comfortable with the risk. The rules of the game appear to have changed whereby our central banks and government are willing to destroy the entire free market concept in order to prevent deflation - so it would appear we're transitioning into some form of marxist/socialist society that support insanely inflated asset prices - these prices backed by the state. Its a very odd world where we now live. The old school capitalists think its great - even though its socialism that is keeping them rich! At some point that probably won't work.

You can look at the points above - those old school types who think they know everything and will try to belittle the views of others. That is fine. I've lived through a property bubble, they haven't. The confirmation and recency bias is very strong. I just wouldn't make the assumption that what we've experienced in our financial/property markets since the 1980's-1990's will be repeated. Falling interest rates have supported that - but it looks like that cycle has ended or is in the process of ending.

I'm never telling people not to buy houses, they can certainly do so. I'm just pointing out risks that others don't want to appear to even acknowledge exist. Experience of such things changes ones perspectives.

Purchasing after massive booms in pricing has never worked well for investors - look through the history of markets, not just property. If you think you can save quickly and have a bigger deposit on a home (because my suggestion is prices will be flat for quite some time - even decades while wages catch up and interest rates regulate) then perhaps saving a bigger deposit might be a better strategy.

I could buy a house with cash right now - I'm just not doing it because I know that I can better protected by having my wealth distributed across currencies, across shares in different countries (UK, US, Japan, EUR, Aus, Russia and NZ) as well, bonds (again in multiple currencies) and gold/silver, commercial property/REITS etc. If the property market rises, I'm betting my portfolio will do better than NZ housing. If the NZ housing market falls, then I can by the same home and have equity left over to keep investing across multiple asset classes. Diversification is key

As Buffett put it, be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful. Ask yourself if you think there has been greed involved in the NZ property market (read the comments of all the landlords/investors etc and how many people have decided to become property investors the last 10-20 years) then you can decide if you should be fearful or not - and to answer your question when is a good time to buy a house. Its when other people don't want to. Perhaps that is now - but its still a bit of a greedy market in my view.

Hi IO, thank you for your response. My reply to you was more about FHBs (well, fully about FHBs) as you had mentioned them and not investors in your first post.

There are so many factors that might influence that decision that go well beyond just the financial situation. Without knowing all of yours or any other FHB, I'm not going to say when a good time to buy a house is because it really would be a case by case decision (children, work, attitude to risk, family, plans, life goals etc).

I'm just pointing out at the macro level, there are a number of FHB's taking on a lot of debt right now, in an economy with unknown characteristics (things are in a very new/strange place right now) so there is risk. House prices have been an excellent investment the last 20-30 years, I'm the first to acknowledge that - but if you look through the history of all markets, generally things that have provided excellent returns in the past, probably won't in the near future. I've done very well from my share holdings the last 5-10 years around the world, but because of that, I'm not expecting good returns in the future (as Dalio puts it, it could be a lost decade). I'd expect the same kind of balanced view from property investors. Had fantastic returns, perhaps now for the next few years (or even decades) perhaps not so much.

"I know that I can better protected by having ... commercial property/REITS etc. If the property market rises, I'm betting my portfolio will do better than NZ housing."

WTF? That's extremely surprising given all your rhetoric... very very fake

Not at all - if we see the property market rising its means the economy is doing well and if the economy is doing well (rising interest rates and wages) then my ownership in the companies that make up the economy will be doing just as well.

And please quit the online abuse by using terms like 'very very fake'. We're sharing views and I don't call you fake, so would expect the same respect in return. Thanks in advance.

Check m

I don’t understand what that means - you might need to clarify your comment.

Or is it simply another troll post?

IO
Your premise for your view is the housing collapse in the USA and Ireland in 2008 associated with the GFC.
Unlike the USA and Ireland, New Zealand housing - while showing some decline - was nowhere as adversely affected in 2008.
You argue that the 2008 US and Ireland collapse is imminent in New Zealand.
The US collapse was chiefly fueled by the existence of reckless lending and the sub-prime market. Sub-prime mortgages were not present in New Zealand then, nor are they present today.
The Irish collapse was chiefly fueled by a very poorly supervised financial sector. The New Zealand financial markets and banking are well regulated and supervised. The RBNZ also closely monitor and influence the housing market as seen by the recent LVRs.
So, while you point to 2008 US and Ireland, New Zealand was not as adversely affected then, and the prime causes of those collapses are currently not relevant to the New Zealand.
You have decided to hold off purchasing a home - that is your decision. You clearly are happy to rent with the implications of that.

IO argues that collapse is "imminent" but doesnt truly believe it if you compare his actions ie investments with his words

Again please stop making up false narratives - what you’re saying simply isn’t true.

Nice trolling though!

Ok I will stop commenting to you. Just as soon as you stop commenting that collapse is imminent or similar phrases

That’s the false narrative though - I’m saying NZ (and Australia and Canada..it’s nothing personal about NZ) could be in a property bubble that could collapse. I’m not saying it’s imminent, I’m just saying it’s possible. With good will, I hope you can eventually see the difference between those two statements.

With your deceptive language you should be a politician. I think someone else also commented that to you and I fully agree. The reason I agree is because by far the greater number own their home and I would like to see you make a decision to buy a home. You have enough capital

I don’t intend to be deceptive - my apologies if that is how I come across to you.

I’m glad you want me to by a home, but please don’t worry about me! Worry about the FHB who don’t/won’t have much equity if they buy and the market reverses. That’s where my concern is.

Let me get this straight...you’re premise for why NZ and Aussie will not have a significant housing correction is because we didn’t during the GFC?! WTF!! That’s exactly the reason we will have a correction, cos we (add Canada to he mix too) did get off relatively unscathed. It’s called reversion to the mean. The reason we got off relatively unscathed was because China and Aussie (our two biggest trading partners) never went into recession. We needed to have a correction at that time to bring house prices back to some normality relative to incomes. Now our house prices are even more disconnected from wages and we have extreme levels of household debt relative to GDP. Thats all fine if unemployment is low but turns to custard when people lose jobs in great numbers which is what is happening and will continue to happen for many months. Are you really going to take any notice of what bank economists are predicting? Companies with vested interests in continuing credit creation? You think NZ have stern regulators? Umm, did you not follow the Hayne report?! We never pursued a royal commission into NZ banks (a massive faux pas) but given the majority are owned by their Aussie counterparts do you really think they are clean? And the RBNZ? What’s their track record? If it’s anything like the FED then you can disregard that too. IO raises some very critical points that both you and your side kick housework’s should perhaps take on board rather than dismiss with your myopic narrative.

My thinking is that not having a price reset in housing during the GFC makes us more at risk, or if not more at risk, the size of any possible fall to be of a higher magnitude. We dodged a bullet last time in my view, assuming we will again or forever might be overly optimistic - especially now that rates are more or less zero, we’ve banned foreign buyers, we have very high household debt levels, baby boomers retiring etc. A number of differences.

Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat them ...

dp

IO
"The rules of the game appear to have changed whereby our central banks and government are willing to destroy the entire free market concept."
Great conspiracy theory. Keep believing it.

Ok I will keep exploring it - hope that isn’t inconvenient for you!

We've gone from fake news to fake markets. That fits quite nicely with our fake families, fake wages & our fake
politicians. Not to mention our fake viruses.

COVID-19 is fake?

FYI, how COVID19 is affecting people in Brazil.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-06-24/coronavirus-pandemic-...

Shows the importance of having a strong balance sheet for central governments in being able to deal with the unexpected.

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I have been following the market closely, been to a couple of auctions. What I see currently is emotional buyers not short of funds paying over the odds for good property. My guess is this type of buyer was maybe caught out by Covid situation, a bit stressed, not prepared to wait the market out a few months for the coming market correction and plenty of cash so no worries. Those prepared to wait until market deteriorates will be rewarded.

The market once again has defied the negativity of the DGM's and been stable. Given the predictions on here ( where's that RP guy ?? ) the demand for a return, low TD's, low mortgage rates, no Armageddon outcome on the economy from Covid-19, a high number of Kiwi's returning home the outlook is very positive. I note Standard and Poors predict the outlook for the NZ economy 3 years post the Pandemic as only being 25% effected compared to the GFC THAT IS REDUCED IN SIZE BY 3% RATHER THAN 8.9%.
Technically the recession is over as the 3 quarter of 2020 will show positive growth and we are already in July.

16
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I think your your underestimating the depth of our pending downturn. I believe unemployment levels will cause downward pressure on property values.it will be obvious before year's end. No stress out there yet, wait till handouts are stopped and mortgage holidays end.

16
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Also, no way will returning kiwis make up for zero immigration.

There are 6000 people sitting in quarantine right now. That's 6000 who arrived in the country in the last 14 days. The govt is budgeting on increasing arrival numbers not less.

12
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People are leaving on planes too, you do know that right.

Do you have any figures. Visa holders were forecast to leave but instead are hanging here on the basis that nz is their home regardless of the hardship.

There are indeed daily figures published by customs here https://www.customs.govt.nz/covid-19/more-information/passenger-statistics/

Headline is that more people leave NZ than come in since lockdown started.

April was 6385 in and 31,896 out - net 25k out
May was 5577 in and 10111 out - net 4.5k out
June was 9162 in and 14864 out - net 5.7 out.

So unless that turns around considerably we're not getting more pressure from incoming Kiwis.

Thanks for sharing. Great KPI on what's going on.

No problem, had a similar conversation the other day and came across the figures.

It surprised us that almost 200 people a day are leaving the country. Seemed counter-intuitive.

“Crickets” by housework’s lol

You're very chirpy albert lol

So does that mean the narrative that kiwis are rushing home isn’t necessarily true?

At this time, it's not happening.

Who knows what happens in the next few months.

Number of arrivals in june is 164 percent of the may arrivals.. wed 1 july was 360, by 4 days later on 4 july arrivals total 788 way more than double. In april there was 2 days where arrivals exceeded departures. May, 6 days and June had 8 days

Arrivals and departures both went up similarly from May to June, 164% and 147%. I assume this is just due to more flights being available. Can't take too much from it.

You also can't extrapolate anything meaningful from a 4 day stretch in July , the numbers vary wildly by day.

Unless you think that you can draw anything from 18/6/20 - 21/6/20 where we went from 642 arrivals to 63. 90% reduction! Down to 0 in no time.

I see that you're now pouring on cold water on the stats. The situation is evolving and number are rising rapidly now. 2160 arrivals in four days!!!

I'm sorry but this really makes me question whether you are commenting in good faith.

The idea that I am pouring cold water on the stats because I don't want to draw any conclusions from a very small, erratic sample is disingenuous at best.

In your previous comment you mentioned a large increase in arrivals without mentioning the corresponding increase in departures. In this newest comment you mention the 2160 arrivals and not the 2650 departures. That's 500 net departures in 4 days. That pattern of selective quoting of the numbers makes it hard to take you seriously.

Im just pointing out the blindingly obvious... The vast majority of departures since beginning of april were tourists leaving. On 24 March there were over 69000 tourists here but maximum only 56k left. The important figures are net PLT migrants which it seems is the majority of the arrivals. A huge 10k net gain in March and even Stevens in april. It looks like its DIA / mbie you have to convince with your raw data, not me.

You’re really scraping the barrel there my friend....you should relocate to Blenheim, I hear they’re looking for cherry pickers

Percentages mean nothing. 164% increase in arrivals from May to June (+3585), 147% increase in departures (-4753).

-1168 net migration.

Absolutely but as I said I don't think you can take too much from either number. It seems likely that they are both constrained by flight availability.

It's a new paradigm so who knows, any forecast is probably a guess based on our own bias. The link is awesome thanks

If all those who want in could get in the numbers would be vastly different. From April to June 56k have departed, however on 24 March over 69000 tourists were in the country. That leaves 13000 tourists assuming that all those who left were tourists not any other category.. such as work visa holders, outbound nz tourists, yes there were some, emigrating kiwis. Give it time and I think you will find developing trends

ynot
"I think your your underestimating the depth of our pending downturn."
So what is your estimate of the downturn in Auckland and national markets by Ocotber?

My estimate in relation to shoremans comment "that we will be back into market growth by the 3rd quarter" is that we will not be back into growth by the 3rd quarter, I say we will be down on today's prices by then. Further more I estimate the 4th quarter will be worse again. Minimum drop by year's end of 10%

You clearly have a poor understanding of what’s happened and currently happening both at a national and global scales. The market is already suffering big time with low price sales in lower segments of the market, specially smaller apartment and auctions sales show sales as much above as below RVs from years back, plus 1/5 vendors are selling due to financial stress. Also the number of retuning Kiwis is really low to make it up to the massive reduction to almost zero of new immigrant arrivals. It won’t be Armageddon but we are far from being out of the woods since wage subsidies and mortgage holidays are still on.

I see "DGM" on this page a lot. What does it stand for?

Doom and Gloom Merchant. A label given to anyone who speaks against the property prices always go up narrative, even when providing solid statistics to support their assertion. A bit like sticking your fingers in your ears and shouting "lalalalalala" when someone tries to tell you something you don't to hear.

Potential owner occupiers - CAVEAT EMPTOR (buyer beware)

There is a huge vested financial self-interest in promoting property transactions. Some commenters on interest.co.nz may have their own financial self-interest for promoting property transactions, property ownership, etc. Some who are unable to provide logical and valid counterpoints and rebuttals to those raised by the property price bears have often resorted to the use of negative labels, name calling, and belittling behavior in an attempt to discredit and intimidate the property price bears, and to distract others from their lack of a coherent rebuttal. Many of the property price bulls may also have never experienced a significant property price fall, and are unaware of the conditions which can potentially lead to significantly increased property price risks - these people may not know what they don't know.

Some people may wonder why when property price risks are high (and typically after property prices have fallen substantially), warnings to the general public are not given by those who can see the elevated property price risks:
1) there is no vested financial self-interest in giving property price risk warnings to the general public in the media. There are simply no marketing dollars set aside to warn the public (unlike the huge marketing dollars in promoting property transactions by those offering their real estate related services and products such as real estate agents, lenders, mortgage brokers, property mentors, main stream media, property developers, property builders, etc)
2) individuals do not want to expose themselves to the vitriol of the general public and media (for example take a look at the vitriol directed at a couple of property price bears who have been higher profile in the media)
3) comments on mainstream media web sites of the perspectives of the property price bears may be edited out by publishers (due to their financial self-interest), so that their reader audience is unaware of these property risk warnings.

As a result, potential owner occupier buyers only hear the one sided perspective of property price promoters in the mainstream media (and are denied hearing the property price risk warnings so as to make a fully informed buying decision). This can lead to property prices reaching levels where property price risks are high.

Then something unexpected can happen that causes the music to stop, causing recent owner occupier buyers to get caught out unexpectedly (e.g real estate owners in Queenstown, central Auckland, etc)

We're in the final stages of locking down a new build as FHB.
We have 12% deposit and secure jobs (government).
Our bank (kiwi) turned us down. Sbs have pre approved but really wanted a lot of info. Sbs also has a new condition that they want to reinspect all our personal details prior to settlement. Which seems like a bit of a risk for us.

Currently attempting with ASB. They require 15% deposit but do waive it on occasion. My wife has an account with them which helps.
But it's definitely proving quite a challenge. More than we had anticipated. The removal of LVR's hasn't had any clear benefit for us.

Not giving advice here but I would consider that given the current outlook borrowing more than 85% LVR could easily take you into negative equity territory so you would not able to move houses without losing money. Specially if your own bank which has access to most data has denied it which is usually not a good sign. People tend to try with other banks in these cases and usually one will approve but it is really the borrower taking the risk.

13
up

Ok giving advice here, but seriously unless your current renting situation is completely untenable, I would wait until April-May next year. I think it is almost more safe to say, than at any other time in history, that prices won't have risen by then. They definitely should have dropped, but by how much is the great question.
For your families financial sake I would try to muster any patience you have till then. Sit tight. New builds will also be going cheap if that's your jam as most new builds are financed.

Like the proverbial pot of gold at the end of the rainbow, your forecasts keep moving further into the distance

Go ahead and find a comment where I have said anything other than April May next year. You must be confusing me with someone else.

Datamine this site since 2007 - the property crash has been predicted for every year, its just ahead. Lol

It could be justified then and every year since. Kiwis love their sod and will always want to buy it but the bubble is burst and unfortunately takes a longtime to recover - 10 to 15 years.

Just makes it more and more likely every year it doesn’t happen then.

Do you really think new build price will decline? The issue is they take up to a year from the beginning stage. We don't want to wait two years.
Thanks to the land being cheaper due to kiwibuild this is a seriously good deal also.
400sm section with new build house for 499k. Closest to that section size in the same area is 629k (admittedly those ones have an extra bathroom and slightly larger house size). But it seems like a real score. We've shopped around and nothing comes close. Next from this are 550k packages that are 240sm with everything else the same.

logan
You have clearly done your homework.
It would be unusual if either your lawyer or family didn't raise concerns with you if there were issues.
Your bank has a vested interest in not lending high risk due to the variety of tests and requirements they apply (valuations, 7.2+% mortgage interest stress test, other stress tests, work history, saving history . . . ).
I would pay little attention to those who do not know the details of your background.

Out of curiosity why are you looking at a new build? Will be quicker to build up your equity by purchasing entry level, making the same mortgage payments as you would on a new build, plus you'd have access to better rates on an LVR < 80%. Shortage of entry level properties in your area?

Personally I would rather be in a new build right now instead freezing in an 'insulated' 1960s. For the price that Logan has said it sounds quite hard to beat

Agreed, but Logan's challenge is actually getting finance for that new build. We were in a similar boat 3 years ago, very similar deposit/ hh income to Logan and looking in $350k - $450k price bracket but because my wife was on maternity leave (qualified teacher) no banks would talk to us. Choice of waiting until both working or lowering our expectations. Went with the latter, bought an 80s 3 bedder on 1/5 acre using a non-bank lender at 6% fixed even though we had 25%+ equity. Our mortgage amortisation schedule is now at 10 years (25 year payments are < 10% our income). Now in a position with close to 50% equity (thanks to house price inflation) and looking at new builds.

That makes sense and sounds like it has paid off well for you!
As mentioned below both (new build or existing) have their own challenges and benefits for us.

We're in the Bay of Plenty region.
Basically low-end houses start at 450k. In regards to grants we can go up to 550k for new build or 500k for existing.
We looked around all existing currently on the market and there is nothing in the >500k price range that doesn't need a lot of work.
Even at 550k you're either looking at a very small existing home, a very rough neighbourhood or again something with land in an okay area but that need a lot of work. We won't be able to borrow money to renovate for a decent while. So we'll be stuck in a cold/damp home for 1-2 years before we could make the necessary changes.
Comparatively - the new build is 499k (51k under our budget). Is in a nice area, has an okay amount of land and doesn't need any renovations (plus ten year warranty).
Weighing up our options right now... it seems the best available bet. Obviously if house prices were to drop a lot then the existing home options increase. But I am still not convinced quality liveable homes will drop by the much (I expect the cold/damp homes to come down a fair amount though).
The new build is also turnkey so we don't make any payments until it is done. The plan is to move back with family once our rental agreement is up and continue to save while the house is being built.
Does our logic make sense?

Had a look on TradeMe for properties in BoP and you're not wrong! 85b Turret Road is asking $475k for a 2 bedroom with a grass berm of a backyard! Your logic does make sense.

As for property price direction is anyone's guess. As long as you're factoring in (which i'm sure you are) the "what ifs" into the equation e.g. implications of property price falls and/or job loss. If the mortgage Interest + rates + insurance are around the same as what you pay in rent then it stacks up.

Good job having a look. It's crazy isn't it?
We should hopefully be protected from job loss as we both have permanent government contracts (nursing/teaching).
All up it's slightly more than our current rent. But well within our budget.

.

Comment deleted?

I don't know that it will decline, but it's definitely more likely decline than increase from what I've been reading. But also possible that it will hold. It all depends on your long term plans and appetite for negative equity. I personally would not be keen on the stress of negative equity, and I think that in your situation that's a very real risk. You need to assess your situation realistically, and I wish you all the best with that, but there is just so much uncertainty and basically everyone's predicting a decline, so yeah, have a strong personal reason to walk straight into that possibility. Because if it happens, and then life happens (your personal circumstances change due to unforseens) things can get pretty sh* for innocent well meaning people such as yourself.

Agree and I am of the same mindset.
But we are very keen to have our own home (and not be locked into our landlords whims). We also both have permanent government contracts (nursing/teaching). So job security is pretty high.

Removed. Accidentally posted twice.

To give a bit of perspective on the state of the real economy and future patterns, I walked the CBD yesterday to see how things were ticking over. Here were my stops and observations.

1. Car rental places. A few have mothballed like Juicy with no cars on their forecourts, one camper can place closed down, one moved to smaller premises.

2. The Antipodean may have just completed CCCs but it's a ghost town. Also a brand new development city side is going up about 3 feet from the windows on that side of the building. Town planning at its absolute worst. Lawsuits perhaps after the foreign buyers visit and realise their panoramic views are now a concrete wall ? (The new build is also gonna be 15 levels so even the top floor penthouse owner might be screwed).

3. The huge planned development at Seascape seems to have stopped entirely. Pacifica is going gangbusters, presumably they want to push completions asap. Will be interesting to see how many buyers walk away from deposits. Seems Antipodean was quite a few.

4. The Sofitel is mothballed,not even a security guard in site. The brand new Park Hyatt has the odd contractor walking in and out but it seems finished but again mothballed. The booths selling sailing trips from the Viaduct are gone.

5. You will recall the most recent B&T sales report listed multiple sales at "2 Madden". I had a long hard look for 2 Madden Street but it doesn't exist. 132 Hasley does and that occupies the spot where 2 Madden used to be so where are these mysterious apartments B&T sold last month ? Also a look through the detailed advertisements for each property reveals that a good number of June sales actually sold in May or earlier. Some sales were actually off plan sales so God know when they were done or if they should have been included.

All in quite grim.

Is that you Joe Wilkes ? What happened to the now non-existent DFA slot

Does anyone think the Americas Cup is going to go ahead as planned ? Prelim races were/are planned for December now only 20 weeks away...

Even if teams could get down here how many tourists would come ? Seems like a very long shot.

Unfortunately it’s going to be a bit of a flop given it’s unlikely tourists will be entering in large numbers by early next year. It’s a shame cause we have forked over $250 million for the event, excluding the $3 million we contributed to a Hungarians pension fund.

I can see only one benefit so far, we have hundreds of folks employed working on Tamaki Drive.

It's a damned inconvenience but these folks aren't making a huge amount and at least at the end of it the waterfront should look half decent.

Much better for all concerned than have more claiming benefits as there ain't many jobs around at the moment.

If it is you Joe, great job mate!

Good to see you source your financial news from sources other than one roof housework’s.

Guys, I am not JW but chatted to him a couple of days ago. He hopes to do something on DFA in the not too distance future but not until more research has been done. Times are changing fast and he wants current data before presenting new findings. I'm looking forward to his next post as contrarian opinion is always interesting when it's well researched.

I watch Joe on DFA. I find his views interesting. I believe he tells it as he sees it which is a whole lot better than most of the media we are served up in NZ. Has he previously posted on this forum ?

Troll Albert2020

No, just calling you out on your bull$hit comments slagging off other commentators who aren’t here to respond. #topper

Well you sure are trolling. Not probs just dont take your pent up frustrations out on your voiceless clients the animals. Enjoy

I wonder if 2 Madden was meant to be 2 Turakina Street Grey Lynn. Homes.co.nz has it down as 199 Great North Road but has a whole bunch of recent sales against it. Probably some scatter brains agent who got the street names mixed up.

https://www.barfoot.co.nz/projects/current-projects/crest

The banks are certainly being DGMs so it is a surprise the market is still going like it is.
I am in the middle of a new build currently as a FHB and ASB just basically cancelled my mortgage approval citing the need to verify our incomes again due to Covid-19.
We aren’t exactly high risk I don’t think, with equity around 25% and DTI will be about 4x with 2 good permanent jobs.
But anyway now our builders are not getting paid while we wait for ASB to do their paperwork again so we can continue to draw down on our mortgage.
Our lawyer is saying ASB are by far the worst bank to deal with currently.

Well that doesn't sound good!
We are currently trying asb for a turnkey new build.
I'm guessing you're doing a progress payment scheme?

I think our problem is mainly because the build has been taking so long due to the lockdown.
Apparently they are reassessing all borrowers incomes again now to see if anyone has lost their jobs during lockdown.
We bought the section earlier in the year and paid for the geotechnical report and plans to be done. Now we have them done and have council consent about to be issued ASB suddenly won’t pay the next progress payment until they have checked our incomes again which seems to take a long time!
I have been banking with ASB all my life but would really struggle to recommend them as a mortgage provider now, their communication has been terrible and they never even mentioned the fact that we no longer had funding for our build until I tried to organise the next payment. Surely they could have told us earlier and we could have got things organised again well before now when we have builders wanting to be paid!

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